May ready for tough talks over Brexit

[RuamRudy]

Just now, aright said:

Based on what?

Based on the dissatisfaction of large numbers of people in Scotland who feel that they are not being listened to; that plus the almost unbelievably farcical way that the government is lurching from chaos to self inflicted chaos.

 

TM has zero credibility with remainers and I get the feeling that the Brexiters have lost confidence in her too - how much longer can she hold things together before the Tories collapse, leading to a Labour implosion as the centre and the left battle it out, both parties riven, as they are, by a fundamental disagreement over the very future of our country?

[talahtnut]

15 hours ago, aright said:

Based on what?

A lunatic government, unsustainable economy, and a tidy debt.

[aright]

22 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Based on the dissatisfaction of large numbers of people in Scotland who feel that they are not being listened to; that plus the almost unbelievably farcical way that the government is lurching from chaos to self inflicted chaos.

 

TM has zero credibility with remainers and I get the feeling that the Brexiters have lost confidence in her too - how much longer can she hold things together before the Tories collapse, leading to a Labour implosion as the centre and the left battle it out, both parties riven, as they are, by a fundamental disagreement over the very future of our country?

I don't think the facts support you. The party with a leave the UK agenda is the SNP. At the June General Election they lost a massive 21 seats (including Alex Salmond) and the Conservatives had their best result since 1983. Ms Dugdale said its clear any plan Nicola Sturgeon had for a second independence referendum disappeared as a result of the election. Your so called large numbers failed to show up. One other point regarding a second Scottish referendum...I doubt no 10 will allow it. They learnt their lesson with Brexit; leave it up to the public and you might get a result you don't want.

How long can Mrs May last after the General Election? Some people said only 6 weeks and here we are 7 months down the track and she is still in charge. 14 million people, 43% of the electorate voted for her. I don't know where you live but I live in the UK and I don't detect any significant groundswell in the press or anecdotally to remove her. Jeremy Corbyn is a different story.

[RuamRudy]

2 minutes ago, aright said:

I don't think the facts support you. The party with a leave the UK agenda is the SNP. At the June General Election they lost a massive 21 seats (including Alex Salmond) and the Conservatives had their best result since 1983. Ms Dugdale said its clear any plan Nicola Sturgeon had for a second independence referendum disappeared as a result of the election. Your so called large numbers failed to show up. 

Oh, I think we are a little early for the indyref2 debate, but despite losing a 'massive' 21 seats, the SNP still has an even more massive 35, which is more than all other parties north of the border. As for the Scottish Tories - the party's due diligence clearly failed it when you look at the woeful calibre of the 13. Add to that support for independence still sitting mid to high 40s without a campaign running - don't rule anything out.

 

7 minutes ago, aright said:

One other point regarding a second Scottish referendum...I doubt no 10 will allow it. They learnt their lesson with Brexit; leave it up to the public and you might get a result you don't want.

Sorry, but the genie is out of the bottle - if the Tories crash and burn next time around (and many commentators are suggesting that Ruth Davidson's star is on the wane) and independence supporting parties continue to enjoy a majority in Holyrood and Westminster, how can the UK government claim to be democratic whilst ignoring a clearly expressed mandate for indyref2?

 

9 minutes ago, aright said:

How long can Mrs May last after the General Election? Some people said only 6 weeks and here we are 7 months down the track and she is still in charge.

And she has never looked more incompetent, more unstable or more tragic - she has no friends in the cabinet and no friends in the press. The knives are out, I am sure. 

 

13 minutes ago, aright said:

14 million people, 43% of the electorate voted for her.

That's a very sleight of hand way to bolster the old girl. The Tories actually only took 13.6 million votes which represented 42.3% of those who voted, but turnout was only 68.8%. Therefore, by my (admittedly shonky) calculations, the Tories received  the backing of only 29% of the electorate, not quite the endorsement your statement suggests.

 

22 minutes ago, aright said:

Jeremy Corbyn is a different story.

I am no particular fan of the man, but he has a strong groundswell of support amongst traditional labour voters, those who are generally disinterested in the nuances of internal politicking or any ideological contradictions he may exhibit. Plus, public services in the UK have never been so weak and under resourced. He has so much to use to his advantage.

[aright]

52 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Oh, I think we are a little early for the indyref2 debate, but despite losing a 'massive' 21 seats, the SNP still has an even more massive 35, which is more than all other parties north of the border. As for the Scottish Tories - the party's due diligence clearly failed it when you look at the woeful calibre of the 13. Add to that support for independence still sitting mid to high 40s without a campaign running - don't rule anything out.

 

That's a very sleight of hand way to bolster the old girl. The Tories actually only took 13.6 million votes which represented 42.3% of those who voted, but turnout was only 68.8%. Therefore, by my (admittedly shonky) calculations, the Tories received  the backing of only 29% of the electorate, not quite the endorsement your statement suggests.

 

 

If you have seen your vote reduced from 53% to 37% and as a result lost a third of your seats, your Westminster leader, your Chief Whip, your Foreign Affairs spokesman and your International trades spokesman and allowed the Tories to double their vote then turn round and say we didn't have a bad election and there are no problems.....good luck to you. If Nicola Sturgeon feels she can win what was a planned independence referendum, which you claim has high 40's popularity without a campaign, why has she put her plans on hold? It wouldn't have anything to do with the feeling she couldn't win it would it?

I think Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland) summed it up best. The people have spoken but its not clear what they've said

 

"Not quite the endorsement you suggest"  Please remind me is she the Prime Minster? If she is she got all the endorsement she needed and I don't see any challengers in the wings.

Edited January 14, 2018 by aright

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, aright said:

If you have seen your vote reduced from 53% to 37% and as a result lost a third of your seats, your Westminster leader, your Chief Whip, your Foreign Affairs spokesman and your International trades spokesman and allowed the Tories to double their vote then turn round and say we didn't have a bad election and there are no problems.....good luck to you. If Nicola Sturgeon feels she can win what was a planned independence referendum, which you claim has high 40's popularity without a campaign, why has she put her plans on hold? It wouldn't have anything to do with the feeling she couldn't win it would it?

I think Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland) summed it up best. The people have spoken but its not clear what they've said

 

"Not quite the endorsement you suggest"  Please remind me is she the Prime Minster? If she is she got all the endorsement she needed and I don't see any challengers in the wings.

"I don't see any challengers in the wings." -  Not surprising with a string of resignations and surrounded by yes men and no hopers, the demise of the tory government is merely a matter of time.

 

"The people have spoken but its not clear what they've said"  -  Brexit in a nutshell.

[aright]

24 minutes ago, sandyf said:

"I don't see any challengers in the wings." -  Not surprising with a string of resignations and surrounded by yes men and no hopers, the demise of the tory government is merely a matter of time.

 

"The people have spoken but its not clear what they've said"  -  Brexit in a nutshell.

I continue to admire your commitment to beating a dead horse.

[Naam]

5 hours ago, aright said:

Brexit shock: No deal will cost EU £500billion

PRESSURE was last night mounting on the EU to sign a free-trade agreement with Britain after a report revealed that a “no deal” scenario could cost the bloc more than £500billion.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/904339/brexit-news-eu-uk-no-deal-free-trade-agreement-economists-for-free-trade

Quote

He predicts that the UK would make an additional £433billion in tariffs imposed on EU producers if we operated under World Trade Organisation rules, because we import more than we export. 

 

That, plus the £38billion we have saved by not paying for the two-year transition period, adds up to a total of £651billion. 

 

[aright]

Spain hard Brexit PANIC as regions beg EU to save them from economic MELTDOWN

SPANISH tourism, finance and agriculture could be badly damaged if the EU fails to broker a deal with the UK over Brexit, the nation’s regional officials have warned.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/904519/Brexit-Spain-Andalusia-Murcia-Canary-Balearic-islands-Madrid-EU-UK-tourism

[Orac]

Brexit shock: No deal will cost EU £500billion

PRESSURE was last night mounting on the EU to sign a free-trade agreement with Britain after a report revealed that a “no deal” scenario could cost the bloc more than £500billion.

 
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/904339/brexit-news-eu-uk-no-deal-free-trade-agreement-economists-for-free-trade

I didn’t think anyone took Minford’s dubious economics seriously any more and some of that stuff is embarrassing to read and as has already been thoroughly discredited.

To think that the costs of tariffs into the U.K. will be wholly paid by EU suppliers and not UK importers and consumers is ridiculous, the 9% spike in GDP seems to be a made up number with little to back it up and as for

“That, plus the £38billion we have saved by not paying for the two-year transition period, adds up to a total of £651billion. “

This is exactly the same number they put on the side of a bus which I don’t think anyone is defending as accurate now.



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[phutoie2]

Appear to have hit a new low on this topic, quoting articles from the Daily Brexit. Wonder how negotiations with the sale of this rag by Porno Des are going with the Mirror group. Could be an interesting shift of editorial policy. 

[brewsterbudgen]

This thread, and other Brexit threads, have gone rather quiet since Farage admitted a 2nd referendum was inevitable and that the tide had turned against leaving.

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[SheungWan]

24 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

This thread, and other Brexit threads, have gone rather quiet since Farage admitted a 2nd referendum was inevitable and that the tide had turned against leaving.

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That's because it appears all some Brexiteers ever wanted was nothing more than the UK passport to be changed to colour blue instead of red.

[nauseus]

50 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

This thread, and other Brexit threads, have gone rather quiet since Farage admitted a 2nd referendum was inevitable and that the tide had turned against leaving.

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That's a complete misquote. Pity you broke your silence.

[nauseus]

26 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

That's because it appears all some Brexiteers ever wanted was nothing more than the UK passport to be changed to colour blue instead of red.

Plus me two front teef.

 

[RuamRudy]

2 hours ago, SheungWan said:

That's because it appears all some Brexiteers ever wanted was nothing more than the UK passport to be changed to colour blue instead of red.

What will the tariff be for foreign manufactured UK passports?

[RuamRudy]

14 hours ago, aright said:

If you have seen your vote reduced from 53% to 37% and as a result lost a third of your seats, your Westminster leader, your Chief Whip, your Foreign Affairs spokesman and your International trades spokesman and allowed the Tories to double their vote then turn round and say we didn't have a bad election and there are no problems.....good luck to you. If Nicola Sturgeon feels she can win what was a planned independence referendum, which you claim has high 40's popularity without a campaign, why has she put her plans on hold? It wouldn't have anything to do with the feeling she couldn't win it would it?

I think Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland) summed it up best. The people have spoken but its not clear what they've said

 

"Not quite the endorsement you suggest"  Please remind me is she the Prime Minster? If she is she got all the endorsement she needed and I don't see any challengers in the wings.

So the SNP go from having a pretty unsustainable 95% of the Scottish MPs in Westminster to having a very reasonable 59% and you suggest that this is failure, but in your very next paragraph you suggest that Weak & Wobbly's utterly dismal 2017 transition from a strong majority to being held hostage by a group of God bothering, terrorist backing creationists is somehow a show of strength? Brexit logic in no more than a few lines.

Edited January 15, 2018 by RuamRudy

[billd766]

5 hours ago, phutoie2 said:

Appear to have hit a new low on this topic, quoting articles from the Daily Brexit. Wonder how negotiations with the sale of this rag by Porno Des are going with the Mirror group. Could be an interesting shift of editorial policy. 

 

Possibly a counter to the Remainers who read the Guardian or the Independent.

 

TBH the best way to get nearer to the truth would be to read the same story in the Guardian or the Independent, and then again in the Express, Mail and Sun. Somewhere near the middle of both biased sets of newspapers would be about right.

 

Each side has their own bias and supporters and few or the readers would read the opposition papers anyway.

[talahtnut]

 

 

18 hours ago, nauseus said:

19 hours ago, SheungWan said:

That's because it appears all some Brexiteers ever wanted was nothing more than the UK passport to be changed to colour blue instead of red.

Plus me two front teef.

You,ve been talking to the toof fairy again.

[sandyf]

7 hours ago, Orac said:

 

 

I didn’t think anyone took Minford’s dubious economics seriously any more and some of that stuff is embarrassing to read and as has already been thoroughly discredited.

To think that the costs of tariffs into the U.K. will be wholly paid by EU suppliers and not UK importers and consumers is ridiculous, the 9% spike in GDP seems to be a made up number with little to back it up and as for

“That, plus the £38billion we have saved by not paying for the two-year transition period, adds up to a total of £651billion. “

This is exactly the same number they put on the side of a bus which I don’t think anyone is defending as accurate now.



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The whole thing is based on this concept that once the UK leaves the EU trade figures will remain the same. Once the hassle of customs regulations and tariffs kick in, exporters on both sides of the channel will look more closely at their domestic market. The EU of course have that advantage of the much larger domestic market. Under WTO rules a lot of products will disappear from the likes of Lidl & Aldi.

 

The tariff rate differs between different goods. While on average EU tariffs are low, they are high for some products, especially agricultural products. The trade-weighted average EU tariff for non-agricultural products was 2.3% in 2014 and 8.5% for agricultural products. The table below gives a breakdown by type of product.

 

WTO, World Tariff Profiles 2017, pg. 82

Average EU tariff by product type (%)

Animal products 15.7

Dairy products 35.4

Fruit, vegetables and plants 10.5

Coffee, tea 6.1

Cereals and preparations 12.8

Oilseeds, fats and oils 5.6

Sugars and confectionery 23.6

Beverages and tobacco 19.6

Cotton 0.0

Other agricultural products 3.6

Fish and fish products 12.0

Minerals and metals 2.0

Petroleum 2.5

Chemicals 4.5

Wood, paper etc 0.9

Textiles 6.5

Clothing 11.5

Leather, footwear etc 4.1

Non-electrical machinery 1.9

Electrical machinery 2.8

Transport equipment 4.3

Other manufactures 2.6

Source: WTO World Tariff Profiles 2017, p82

 

https://www.google.co.th/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=13&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiVwNDusdnYAhVDnpQKHbsFA7wQFghjMAw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fresearchbriefings.files.parliament.uk%2Fdocuments%2FCBP-7851%2FCBP-7851.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3iHoBrjpzkLteDYma0anZR

[dick dasterdly]

6 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

This thread, and other Brexit threads, have gone rather quiet since Farage admitted a 2nd referendum was inevitable and that the tide had turned against leaving.

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I suspect that most of us are tired of repeating the same comments time and time again.... 

 

Plus there's little actual genuine news - just political/media opinion and speculation.

Edited January 15, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[dick dasterdly]

2 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

Possibly a counter to the Remainers who read the Guardian or the Independent.

 

TBH the best way to get nearer to the truth would be to read the same story in the Guardian or the Independent, and then again in the Express, Mail and Sun. Somewhere near the middle of both biased sets of newspapers would be about right.

 

Each side has their own bias and supporters and few or the readers would read the opposition papers anyway.

Ashamed to admit that I rarely read linked articles nowadays - unless they're based on something that has actually happened.

 

Opinions (and speculation) are two-a-penny, and completely pointless.

Edited January 15, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

 

 

You,ve been talking to the toof fairy again.

It's all about what I want for Christmas.

[Orac]

Interesting to see the govt has written a section into the Taxation (cross-border Trade) Bill currently going through that will enable them to fast-track rejoining the Customs Union without the need for new legislation after we leaving the EU.




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[Orac]

Carillion gone into compulsory liquidation this morning - wonder how much effect the Brexit chaos has had on this. Article from just over a year ago seems to be pointing a finger....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/carillion-blames-whitehall-upheaval-after-brexit-vote-for-orders-fall-government-eu-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet


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[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, Orac said:

Interesting to see the govt has written a section into the Taxation (cross-border Trade) Bill currently going through that will enable them to fast-track rejoining the Customs Union without the need for new legislation after we leaving the EU.




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So the UK is ready for easy trade borders with the EU?

[dick dasterdly]

3 minutes ago, Orac said:

Carillion gone into compulsory liquidation this morning - wonder how much effect the Brexit chaos has had on this. Article from just over a year ago seems to be pointing a finger....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/carillion-blames-whitehall-upheaval-after-brexit-vote-for-orders-fall-government-eu-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet


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Link doesn't work, but regardless - it's way too early to blame it on brexit.... especially as you said the article is more than a year old?

Edited January 15, 2018 by dick dasterdly

[Orac]

Link doesn't work, but regardless - it's way too early to blame it on brexit.... especially as you said the article is more than a year old?

Not sure why it doesn’t work - does this?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/carillion-blames-whitehall-upheaval-after-brexit-vote-for-orders-fall-government-eu-referendum?

When Carillion were stating that Brexit was causing them problems over a year ago then surely it is relevant.


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[Khun Han]

13 minutes ago, Orac said:

Carillion gone into compulsory liquidation this morning - wonder how much effect the Brexit chaos has had on this. Article from just over a year ago seems to be pointing a finger....

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/carillion-blames-whitehall-upheaval-after-brexit-vote-for-orders-fall-government-eu-referendum?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet


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The lessons that will be learned from the demise of Carillion will be very little to do with brexit, and nearly everything to do with how a large PLC shouldn't behave when it becomes a major business partner of the government.

[dick dasterdly]

Just now, Orac said:

 

Not sure why it doesn’t work - does this?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/07/carillion-blames-whitehall-upheaval-after-brexit-vote-for-orders-fall-government-eu-referendum?

When Carillion were stating that Brexit was causing them problems over a year ago then surely it is relevant.


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Thank you, that link worked.

 

Personally, I've no time for govt./county contractors as I know they somehow get away with charging way more than the 'market' .  But this is off-topic.

 

Even so I come back to the fact that it's ridiculous to blame brexit (that hasn't happened) for some companies destruction....  They clearly had other problems.