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PM May's lead falls to 3 pct points, YouGov poll shows a week before UK election


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PM May's lead falls to 3 pct points, YouGov poll shows a week before UK election

By Guy Faulconbridge and Kylie MacLellan

 

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Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during a Q&A at Cross Manufacturing Company in Odd Down in Bath, Britain, May 31, 2017. REUTERS/Leon Neal/Pool

 

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Theresa May's gamble on a snap election was under question on Thursday after the latest opinion polls showed her Conservative Party's lead was dwindling just a week before voting begins.

 

Failure to win the June 8 election with a large majority would weaken May just as formal Brexit talks are due to begin while the loss of her majority in parliament would pitch British politics into turmoil.

 

In the strongest signal yet that the election is much closer than previously thought, May's lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election.

 

A YouGov survey showed May's lead at a fresh low of 3 percentage points with the opposition Labour party polling 39 percent against the Conservatives' 42 percent.

 

There was slightly better news for May from a Panelbase poll which put her party 8 points ahead of Labour, but that still meant the Conservatives' advantage had almost halved in a week.

 

Meanwhile a separate YouGov model based on different data estimated the Conservatives would win 317 seats, nine short of an overall majority of 326 seats.

 

In a hectic campaign which was suspended after a suicide bombing last week, pollsters, who universally got it wrong before the last vote in 2015, have offered a vast range for the result of the election: From May losing her majority to a landslide victory for her Conservatives of more than 100 seats.

 

"From the pollsters' point of view this is an experimental election. We all got it wrong in 2015 and we are all trying different methods to get it right this year," said Anthony Wells, a research director at YouGov.

 

Betting that she would win a strong majority, May called the snap election to strengthen her position at home as she embarked on complicated Brexit negotiations with 27 other members of the European Union.

 

But if she fails to beat the 12-seat majority her predecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be seriously undermined.

 

If May failed to win an overall majority, she would be forced to strike a deal with another party to continue governing either as a coalition or a minority government.

 

That would have uncertain consequences for Britain's $2.5 trillion economy, and future government policy on everything from government spending and corporate taxation to bond issuance.

 

Sterling weakened against the dollar late Wednesday after the YouGov poll but was trading at $1.2857 on Thursday, about 3 cents above where it was trading at the start of the campaign. The FTSE posted its best month of the year, helped by a weaker pound.

 

BRIGHT BREXIT FUTURE?

 

YouGov said May was still the most favoured choice for prime minister, though her 43 percent rating is the lowest it has ever been. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is on his highest ever rating of 30 percent.

 

Corbyn, a 68-year-old peace campaigner, has been pulling in big crowds at rallies across the country despite warnings from opponents in his own party that he is leading Labour to the worst defeat in its history.

 

May, who won the top job in the political chaos following the shock June 23 Brexit vote, used a speech on Thursday in northern England to pitch her vision of Brexit.

 

"Set free from the shackles of EU control, we will be a great, global trading nation once again bringing new jobs and new opportunities for ordinary working families here at home," May said. "You can only deliver Brexit if you believe in Brexit."

 

May backed the "remain" campaign in the runup to last year's referendum on EU membership, though she made few public appearances, but has repeatedly sought to present herself as the only party leader able to make a success of Brexit despite giving few details of how she will handle the negotiations.

 

The Financial Times came out publicly for May, saying she was the safer bet, though The Sun newspaper, Britain's top selling paper, cautioned that May's campaign was far too defensive.

 

"Corbyn is selling a wonderland," The Sun said. "And even if his promises are practically impossible and economically catastrophic, set against the Tories' unnecessarily defensive campaign it's small wonder he appears to be picking up support."

 

May was taunted by other party leaders for not attending a televised debate with them. Instead, May sent her interior minister, Amber Rudd, who dismissed the leaders as members of a "coalition of chaos".

 

The Financial Times said in an editorial that an increased Conservative majority could lead to more hardline Eurosceptics in May's party.

"Her resolve on Brexit is not in doubt; but her ability to deliver the best deal for Britain in terms of the closest possible relationship with the EU is worryingly unclear," it said.

 

(Editing by Michael Holden; and Ralph Boulton)

 
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-- © Copyright Reuters 2017-06-02
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Think i will vote Labour, it will be fun to watch, plus as an oap i might be better off, also keep my winter fuel allowance even though i don't need it, my grand kids will get free univesity, all looks good with them, Jeremy seems a nice decent chap to lead the country

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Voters of late have shown themselves capable of extremely poor choices, so May has reason to be concerned. That is a very big lead gone in a very short period of time.

A hung parliament should be just about all that is needed to sink the good ship UK.

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8 minutes ago, darksidedog said:

Voters of late have shown themselves capable of extremely poor choices, so May has reason to be concerned. That is a very big lead gone in a very short period of time.

A hung parliament should be just about all that is needed to sink the good ship UK.

One thing is for sure if May doesn't get a good majority the pound will head south.

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Here's a link to an exposition of the main reason for the differences between polls:

http://www.politico.eu/article/pollsters-cluelessness-about-young-voters-explains-variation-in-election-predictions/

Basically, it boils down to differing projections of how many young potential voters will actually vote. The bigger their turnout, the better for Labour. My own personal scientifically unvalidated belief is that because of the results of the Brexit vote, which was contrary to what most young voters wanted, they will be energized to turn out in higher numbers than they have done in the past.

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1 hour ago, freebyrd said:

Of course there is always the possibilty that despite saying otherwise, she's had enough of the whole bag of worms and is hankering to do a Cameron......new Captain etc....

Or maybe T.May is concerned more by public perceptions that she responds to questions with either sound bites, platitudes , or non answers , as evidenced by her recent visit to Plymouth

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html

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May and her manifesto have been quite the disappointment so far. The media are always going to repeat the same old diatribe but I feel this does seem to be an elitist manifesto that does not bode well with the general voting public. First of all, May needs to clearly address the NHS issue and elderly care which is crippling her campaign at the moment. And please why does no party ever sort out the foreign aid budget and make it fair.

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She's got just about everything wrong in this campaign so far. Her attacks on the old and the young Her arrogance not turning up for the leaders debate was the icing on the cake.

The more she keeps on with the personal attacks on Corbyn and keeps avoiding any questions on funding the more people will turn away.

It's like role reversal from

Previous elections. For once labour have got the strategy right and the Tories are in a mess.

I expect to see more of Boris the next few days to try and pull it back and May to be less visible.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

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2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

She's got just about everything wrong in this campaign so far. Her attacks on the old and the young Her arrogance not turning up for the leaders debate was the icing on the cake.

The more she keeps on with the personal attacks on Corbyn and keeps avoiding any questions on funding the more people will turn away.

It's like role reversal from

Previous elections. For once labour have got the strategy right and the Tories are in a mess.

I expect to see more of Boris the next few days to try and pull it back and May to be less visible.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

Are you serious, would you trust Corbyn and his crazy gang to lead us out of the EU and to run the country? I wouldn't trust them to lead my dog!

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Think i will vote Labour, it will be fun to watch, plus as an oap i might be better off, also keep my winter fuel allowance even though i don't need it, my grand kids will get free univesity, all looks good with them, Jeremy seems a nice decent chap to lead the country

lol
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Are you serious, would you trust Corbyn and his crazy gang to lead us out of the EU and to run the country? I wouldn't trust them to lead my dog!

Yes I'm serious. I'm talking about election strategy.

He is resonating with the general public especially with the young. Scrapping tuition fees was a great inclusion and in particular sticking up for pensioners. His manifesto has been carefully targeted.

I don't agree with everything he says by a long way but his strategy is spot on.

No personal attacks, not afraid to say he has made mistakes , apologetic when he does everything May hasn't done and the British people like a bit of humility.

She's done so many U turns and can't even admit when she's done them.

I still expect her to win comfortably but it won't be the result she expected and her arrogance in thinking it would is will be her downfall.

As for Brexit, even she has had to scrap the strong and stable pish. Telling the British people about the great future we can have with the right deal when she didn't want to come out just adds to the feeling she is not genuine.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

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Cameron has had his debacle with the Br-exit vote.

It will be interesting and thrilling, if May underestimated the real election results which have been in contrast to the polling results ... under Cameron.

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16 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Yes I'm serious. I'm talking about election strategy.

He is resonating with the general public especially with the young. Scrapping tuition fees was a great inclusion and in particular sticking up for pensioners. His manifesto has been carefully targeted.

I don't agree with everything he says by a long way but his strategy is spot on.

No personal attacks, not afraid to say he has made mistakes , apologetic when he does everything May hasn't done and the British people like a bit of humility.

She's done so many U turns and can't even admit when she's done them.

I still expect her to win comfortably but it won't be the result she expected and her arrogance in thinking it would is will be her downfall.

As for Brexit, even she has had to scrap the strong and stable pish. Telling the British people about the great future we can have with the right deal when she didn't want to come out just adds to the feeling she is not genuine.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

I agree with some of what you say but when you say resonating, I would use the word lying, surely his manifesto cannot be taken seriously, whose going to pay for all this, borrowing and much higher taxation. He doesn't have a cabinet that I have much faith in, I wouldn't trust them with my dinner money.

Tutition fees are another elephant in the room, there are far too many students going to university these days, you can't expect the country to pay for them, many are abusing the scheme anyway and taking their grant and not even attending, it was suggested that the Manchester suicide bomber used his grant (£7,000) to build his bomb. Many are leaving uni with degrees that are useless.

As for Mays U turns, there is nothing wrong with admitting you are wrong, remember M Thatcher, everybody criticised her for not U turning on the community charge, damned if you do and.................

What ever you think of TM she is our only hope of getting the best deal from Brexit, out of all the rest of the contenders anyway. 

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45 minutes ago, vogie said:

Are you serious, would you trust Corbyn and his crazy gang to lead us out of the EU and to run the country? I wouldn't trust them to lead my dog!

The only thing I would trust these muppets of doing is getting our country in more debt and making it worse. I agree with Vogie though. Their election strategy is excellent. Lots of youngsters are now registering to vote as they like his policies for the working class. As I said in my post above, the NHS is a huge issue and Labour have said what people want to hear whereas the Conservatives have remained coy.

Edited by alien365
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6 hours ago, bartender100 said:

Think i will vote Labour, it will be fun to watch, plus as an oap i might be better off, also keep my winter fuel allowance even though i don't need it, my grand kids will get free univesity, all looks good with them, Jeremy seems a nice decent chap to lead the country

Unfortunately, someone has to pay for all Corbyn's promised goodies.  Labour are indeed very good at spending other peoples' money as they have proved many times in the past.

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4 hours ago, ilostmypassword said:

Here's a link to an exposition of the main reason for the differences between polls:

http://www.politico.eu/article/pollsters-cluelessness-about-young-voters-explains-variation-in-election-predictions/

Basically, it boils down to differing projections of how many young potential voters will actually vote. The bigger their turnout, the better for Labour. My own personal scientifically unvalidated belief is that because of the results of the Brexit vote, which was contrary to what most young voters wanted, they will be energized to turn out in higher numbers than they have done in the past.

But surely the young voters who wanted to stay in the EU already know that they have lost that particular fight, so exactly what would voting for a Labour or Coalition government achieve?  As May keeps telling us, "Brexit means Brexit". 

 

I am an eternal optimist and I still believe that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will not be nearly as bad as the pessimists are predicting.  As I have said on other forums, the EU does not hold all the cards in the negotiations, even though they appear to believe that they do. A compromise is in the interests of both parties and politics is all about compromise, even though we voters do not always like it when our own particular interests are at least partly thwarted as a result.

 

We can expect compromises on movement of labour, immigration, the exit fee and on trade as a start.   The EU has tried to set pre-conditions relating to EU staff in the UK and on agreeing the (ludicrously large) exit fee prior to any trade talks.  Perhaps the UK should simply say, for example, that we will not discuss the exit fee until trade talks are underway? 

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34 minutes ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

Unfortunately, someone has to pay for all Corbyn's promised goodies.  Labour are indeed very good at spending other peoples' money as they have proved many times in the past.

The simple truth is: people are generally in favour of mutual benefits and can see advantages in pooled risk.

 

If you say to people: listen, if you pay £1 a week more tax,  we guarantee that this money will be invested to provide free at home care for elderly members of your family, for life, without the need to sell their house, even younger people will generally say, that seems fair.

 

It IS an increased tax burden, but it is not going to bankers or to  corporations, and in general people don't object to taxes ( within reason) that result in clear new benefits for all of society that make them feel safer.

 

The UK's tax burden is currently one of the lowest in Europe. It can go up a bit with no harm.

 

EDIT: And ALL governments are happy spending other people's money - this is their only source of revenue!

Edited by partington
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10 minutes ago, Retiredandhappyhere said:

But surely the young voters who wanted to stay in the EU already know that they have lost that particular fight, so exactly what would voting for a Labour or Coalition government achieve?  As May keeps telling us, "Brexit means Brexit". 

 

I am an eternal optimist and I still believe that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will not be nearly as bad as the pessimists are predicting.  As I have said on other forums, the EU does not hold all the cards in the negotiations, even though they appear to believe that they do. A compromise is in the interests of both parties and politics is all about compromise, even though we voters do not always like it when our own particular interests are at least partly thwarted as a result.

 

We can expect compromises on movement of labour, immigration, the exit fee and on trade as a start.   The EU has tried to set pre-conditions relating to EU staff in the UK and on agreeing the (ludicrously large) exit fee prior to any trade talks.  Perhaps the UK should simply say, for example, that we will not discuss the exit fee until trade talks are underway? 

 Or maybe the Tories should get punished, punished, punished for getting the U.K. into this bloody mess. The way this is shifting so swiftly Labour could be in majority territory in a week.

If you are lucky the Scots will be holding the balance in a  minority Labour gov and demand either of the following to prompt them up. 

1). Another Scotland independence vote

or

2). Another Brexit vote

obviously door #2 will be taken, a reverse of the idiotic 1st Brexit will occur, the U.K. willl be saved.

If the terrible Tories do get back in your  optimism is misplaced. The E.U. must play hardball to discourage others from opting out. Nothing personal but your right screwed. 

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6 hours ago, terryw said:

YouGov has a 3% lead whilst the other Polls show 7-10%. The only real Poll is on June 8th

The only real predictor is the trend. Which is not going May's way!

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4 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

Good Luck England as the Government you vote for and get  is  The  Government  You  Deserve.

  That is an old quote.

Geezer

That is true as the American people are slowly realising much to their dismay.

 

I think that the Tories will win but with a much smaller majority and that would be a good thing.  All the better if they dump May and look for someone who can actually "lead".  Boris would be arguably worse than May and quite honestly it is hard to see anyone capable of negotiating a proper Brexit deal.

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That is true as the American people are slowly realising much to their dismay.
 
I think that the Tories will win but with a much smaller majority and that would be a good thing.  All the better if they dump May and look for someone who can actually "lead".  Boris would be arguably worse than May and quite honestly it is hard to see anyone capable of negotiating a proper Brexit deal.


Rumour is that Amber Rudd is being touted for the job however her own seat is not 'safe' and recent polls show that she may lose it.
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14 minutes ago, dunroaming said:

That is true as the American people are slowly realising much to their dismay.

 

I think that the Tories will win but with a much smaller majority and that would be a good thing.  All the better if they dump May and look for someone who can actually "lead".  Boris would be arguably worse than May and quite honestly it is hard to see anyone capable of negotiating a proper Brexit deal.

I agree with this, it is simply impossible for anyone to make a "Success of Brexit" as TM said, it has financial disaster written all over it. Loss to UK GDP around 3% of £1.9 trillion pa, do the sums. What we paid to the EU is peanuts by comparison.

 

Despite Corbyn's nauseating duplicity over the Brexit campaign, he is clearly a decent principled man who cares about the less fortunate in society. With May - when she is not highlighting her inadequacy by being afraid to debate - you get the lies about wanting an inclusive society, when the Tory austerity policy has only targeted the poor. The gap between the rich and poor in the UK has never been higher since Victorian times, and the Tories care only for their own elite. 

The Labour manifesto has been costed, unlike the Tories manifesto. They are just relying on personal attacks in the gutter press for their campaign. However one day, with the rise in the impact of Social media, licking the boots of Murdoch et al will no longer be enough for the Tories, the writing is on the wall.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I agree with this, it is simply impossible for anyone to make a "Success of Brexit" as TM said, it has financial disaster written all over it. Loss to UK GDP around 3% of £1.9 trillion pa, do the sums. What we paid to the EU is peanuts by comparison.

 

Despite Corbyn's nauseating duplicity over the Brexit campaign, he is clearly a decent principled man who cares about the less fortunate in society. With May - when she is not highlighting her inadequacy by being afraid to debate - you get the lies about wanting an inclusive society, when the Tory austerity policy has only targeted the poor. The gap between the rich and poor in the UK has never been higher since Victorian times, and the Tories care only for their own elite. 

The Labour manifesto has been costed, unlike the Tories manifesto. They are just relying on personal attacks in the gutter press for their campaign. However one day, with the rise in the impact of Social media, licking the boots of Murdoch et al will no longer be enough for the Tories, the writing is on the wall.

 

 

Interesting post.  The problem is that Corbyn, whilst I am sure he is a decent man with good principles, is not what people see as a Prime Minister and with Diane Abbot at his side I think she does far more harm than good.  A coalition is a possibility but that would be used as a process to remove the Tories and not as an answer to the countries woes.

 

Brexit is an enormous problem for whoever is in power but it is what we are lumbered with and it is going to be painful.

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