Brexit bedlam - May's EU divorce deal crushed by 230 votes in parliament

[melvinmelvin]

11 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Not right now.

higher up or in another thread (there are way too many Brexit threads). don't know where to look

 

you opined that

if nobody does anything now,

UK will not automatically exit on the 29th.

 

could you expand a bit on that?

 

 

[Basil B]

8 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

or in another thread (there are way too many Brexit threads).

Yes, TV "world news" does look like Trump V Brexit for the most threads, a couple of days ago every thread on the front page was Brexit or Trump related,

Edited January 16, 2019 by Basil B

[SheungWan]

6 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

higher up or in another thread (there are way too many Brexit threads). don't know where to look

you opined that

if nobody does anything now,

UK will not automatically exit on the 29th.

could you expand a bit on that?

The vote a few days ago which the government narrowly lost ahead of last night's vote. It was lost 303-296.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/theresa-may-suffers-commons-defeat-over-no-deal-brexit

There cannot be a no-deal Brexit without the authorisation of Parliament.

 

[SheungWan]

12 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Who did not vote?

 

OK lets look at the math's

 

there are 650 and 202 + 432 = 634 so 16 MP's did not vote.

 

We know the speaker does not vote and 7 Sinn Fein MP's do not attend, so who were the other 8?

Have you factored in the sick and paired MPs?

[nauseus]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

That's roughly estimated. Brexit has greatly weakened the EU and Europe as a whole. The economic uncertainty has the UK + EU monetary currencies brought significant losses by international comparison. This is a thaiforum.

Just look at the currency development since june 2016 compared to thai baht. Hooray or what?

No hoorays but THB has strengthened as well (against most currencies). GBP down with anti Brexit sentiment. Up a bit today as the big banks probably see a better chance of Brexit being scuppered altogether. It's the way it goes. 

[SheungWan]

25 minutes ago, Basil B said:

by the time we get to hold another referendum we will be out of of the EU by default in a totally disorderly Brexit,

That is not a binary yes/no, but rather estimation of risk of happening ie 60/40 or 50/50 etc.

[melvinmelvin]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The vote a few days ago which the government narrowly lost ahead of last night's vote. It was lost 303-296.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/theresa-may-suffers-commons-defeat-over-no-deal-brexit

There cannot be a no-deal Brexit without the authorisation of Parliament.

 

 

 

I see, remember now, the Cooper et al fix to Tax/Finance acts - I take it you refer to.

 

And this legal hack overrules the statute already in place for guiding the exit?

 

ta

 

[nauseus]

49 minutes ago, billd766 said:

It was called "At the sign of the Swinging Cymbal" by Brass Incorporated.

 

I remember the music very well but not who played it.

 

It was the theme Music for Pick of the Pops.  My Sunday afternoon favourite and I used to steal my Mum's Dansette transistor radio and go to Poole Park to listen to it with my mates.

 

 Totally.   (not really)

Yes, good old "Fluff".

[Basil B]

4 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Have you factored in the sick and paired MPs?

probably the answer, but who would trust a Tory to pair with??? 

[melvinmelvin]

6 minutes ago, nauseus said:

No hoorays but THB has strengthened as well (against most currencies). GBP down with anti Brexit sentiment. Up a bit today as the big banks probably see a better chance of Brexit being scuppered altogether. It's the way it goes. 

never mind GBP,

baht has also improved against Norwegian oil dollars, not happy

 

[vogie]

20 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Who did not vote?

 

OK lets look at the math's

 

there are 650 and 202 + 432 = 634 so 16 MP's did not vote.

 

We know the speaker does not vote and 7 Sinn Fein MP's do not attend, so who were the other 8?

Dianne Abbott?

[dick dasterdly]

8 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Yes, TV "world news" does look like Trump V Brexit for the most threads, a couple of days ago every thread on the front page was Brexit or Trump related,

It pretty much still is dominated by Trump/Brexit threads!

 

Understandable to a certain extent, but the number of 'new' Trump threads (which seem to produce far fewer responses 'cos there are so many about every single, tiny issue?) is a bit baffling.

 

To look on the bright side, the less interesting Trump/Brexit threads don't seem to last very long?

[rixalex]

If twisting my words to attach convenient labels suits you so be it. I proffered a provocative view that democracy is not all its cracked to be meaning that if it is relegated to a non-living set of rigid tenets that do not allow for rapidly changing circumstances it is not workable. The Brexit experience was characterized by clumsy execution and imperfect knowledge. Today we are in possession of more knowledge, and should not be shackled by a referendum that may have been been made obsolete, especially if it means a hard landing.
 
It's easy to take the temperature of the public again with another confirmatory referendum to ensure that's what the public want now, because circumstances have changed, Brexit execution was a disaster, and a hard brexit is worse than no brexit. There is nothing undemocratic about any of this, though it does not serve the function of freezing in time the 2 year old results the brexiters want to achieve, without accounting for changes in the intervening period. That doesn't sound like true democracy to me. 

Circumstances have only changed in the sense that politicians over the last two years, instead of accepting the result and getting on with finding a way to successfully leave the union, have done everything they can to try and prevent us leaving and make it more difficult. None of that is the fault of the 17 plus million who voted to leave and who are still awaiting for the result to be enacted. By allowing another referendum, you'll be potentially rewarding politicians for having acted in the way they did. And to repeat my earlier point, all well and good when it happens to result in the overturning of a decision you didn't agree with in the first place, but wait until the shoe is on the other foot and let's see if you're still as flexible about democracy as you are now.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Basil B]

3 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

I see, remember now, the Cooper et al fix to Tax/Finance acts - I take it you refer to.

 

And this legal hack overrules the statute already in place for guiding the exit?

 

ta

 

Agreed that amendment does not actually stop Brexit.

[dick dasterdly]

11 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

The vote a few days ago which the government narrowly lost ahead of last night's vote. It was lost 303-296.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/08/theresa-may-suffers-commons-defeat-over-no-deal-brexit

There cannot be a no-deal Brexit without the authorisation of Parliament.

 

And that's the worrying part - bearing in mind the majority of MPs support remaining within the eu.

 

Hence the ever continuing 'kicking the can down the road'.....

[SheungWan]

2 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

I see, remember now, the Cooper et al fix to Tax/Finance acts - I take it you refer to.

And this legal hack overrules the statute already in place for guiding the exit?

ta

Parliament is in the saddle. Brexiteers always looking backwards. The primary issue here is that Parliament has rumbled the Hard Brexiteer strategy to achieve a default outcome without HB having the parliamentary majority. I repeat: the Hard Brexiteers do not have a parliamentary majority. Any decision, implied, or otherwise will now have to come back to Parliament. Everything now dead in the water.

[keemapoot]

2 minutes ago, rixalex said:

Circumstances have only changed in the sense that politicians over the last two years, instead of accepting the result and getting on with finding a way to successfully leave the union, have done everything they can to try and prevent us leaving and make it more difficult. None of that is the fault of the 17 plus million who voted to leave and who are still awaiting for the result to be enacted. By allowing another referendum, you'll be potentially rewarding politicians for having acted in the way they did. And to repeat my earlier point, all well and good when it happens to result in the overturning of a decision you didn't agree with in the first place, but wait until the shoe is on the other foot and let's see if you're still as flexible about democracy as you are now.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Your points are well taken. However, as I stated previously, this was never going to be a quick easy exit, and the complexity of it, combined with the misfires by May, the biases in Parliament, and the intervening clarity of the mistake (IMO) means that sometimes older decisions not yet enacted need to be revisited and overturned, and isn't it fair to ask the electorate again? Where is the harm in that. To not do so would be to deny them the benefit of learning from the past two years, and views may have changed. If that 17 million plus voters still feel the same way, let's confirm that, rather than guess at it.

[vogie]

10 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

I see, remember now, the Cooper et al fix to Tax/Finance acts - I take it you refer to.

 

And this legal hack overrules the statute already in place for guiding the exit?

 

ta

 

 

"There's a big problem facing members of Parliament who want to avoid a no-deal Brexit. They can't just show there is a majority in the House of Commons against no deal - they need to prove there is a majority in favour of an alternative outcome.

That's because leaving the EU - with or without a deal - is currently the default.

If the agreement the prime minister has negotiated with the EU fails to pass the House of Commons, the UK will leave with no deal at all unless something changes, because leaving the EU is written into UK law.

The EU Withdrawal Act sets 29 March as the date of departure."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46799778

 

 

 

 

[melvinmelvin]

3 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Parliament is in the saddle. Brexiteers always looking backwards. The primary issue here is that Parliament has rumbled the Hard Brexiteer strategy to achieve a default outcome without HB having the parliamentary majority. I repeat: the Hard Brexiteers do not have a parliamentary majority. Any decision, implied, or otherwise will now have to come back to Parliament. Everything now dead in the water.

right,

and that is the way it should have been all the way, parliament at the tiller

and not the odd PM/cabinet

 

Brexit is too important for that.

 

Alas, it took a very long time for parliament to wake up.

 

[dick dasterdly]

2 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Parliament is in the saddle. Brexiteers always looking backwards. The primary issue here is that Parliament has rumbled the Hard Brexiteer strategy to achieve a default outcome without HB having the parliamentary majority. I repeat: the Hard Brexiteers do not have a parliamentary majority. Any decision, implied, or otherwise will now have to come back to Parliament. Everything now dead in the water.

"Everything now dead in the water."

 

Only if MPs think they can find a way to retain their seats/pretend they are respecting the democratic referendum result.  And they know that rescinding Article 50 is the worst case scenario for them when it comes to the aforementioned.

 

The next week or so is going to be very 'interesting' for the electorate, and very uncomfortable for MPs.

[SheungWan]

21 minutes ago, Basil B said:

probably the answer, but who would trust a Tory to pair with??? 

I see, you don't understand the Parliamentary system re pairing.....And maybe not me as well! https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/pairing/

Edited January 16, 2019 by SheungWan

[SheungWan]

7 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"Everything now dead in the water."

 

Only if MPs think they can find a way to retain their seats/pretend they are respecting the democratic referendum result.  And they know that rescinding Article 50 is the worst case scenario for them when it comes to the aforementioned.

 

The next week or so is going to be very 'interesting' for the electorate, and very uncomfortable for MPs.

What they will do and what they can do are different things.

[rixalex]

Much less, that's a certainty.

It's not a certainty at all.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[SheungWan]

10 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

right,

and that is the way it should have been all the way, parliament at the tiller

and not the odd PM/cabinet

Brexit is too important for that.

Alas, it took a very long time for parliament to wake up.

Well not really. The explanation is as Macmillan might put it (if he did the first time); "Events, dear boy, events"

[SheungWan]

16 minutes ago, vogie said:

 

"There's a big problem facing members of Parliament who want to avoid a no-deal Brexit. They can't just show there is a majority in the House of Commons against no deal - they need to prove there is a majority in favour of an alternative outcome.

That's because leaving the EU - with or without a deal - is currently the default.

If the agreement the prime minister has negotiated with the EU fails to pass the House of Commons, the UK will leave with no deal at all unless something changes, because leaving the EU is written into UK law.

The EU Withdrawal Act sets 29 March as the date of departure."

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46799778

The shrinking Brexiteer!

[Basil B]

5 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

I see, you don't understand the Parliamentary system re pairing.....And maybe not me as well! https://www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/pairing/

Pairing is based on trust...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/22/jo-swinson-pairing-scandal-matters-our-democracy-relies-on-trust-and-integrity

[dick dasterdly]

22 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

"Everything now dead in the water."

 

Only if MPs think they can find a way to retain their seats/pretend they are respecting the democratic referendum result.  And they know that rescinding Article 50 is the worst case scenario for them when it comes to the aforementioned.

 

The next week or so is going to be very 'interesting' for the electorate, and very uncomfortable for MPs.

 

14 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

What they will do and what they can do are different things.

I think that is pretty much what I said?

 

Edit - Which is why I pointed out that "Everything now dead in the water." - isn't necessarily true.  MPs are in between a rock and a hard place at the moment.  The vast majority have always wanted to remain - but how to do that without alienating even more of the electorate?

Edited January 16, 2019 by dick dasterdly

[sawadee1947]

9 hours ago, TopDeadSenter said:

May needs to step down immediately and let a proper leave PM come in and clean up this mess she made. Rees-Mogg, Farage, Robinson, Batten? Somebody that actually believes in Brexit, believes in our country, and has the stones to get on with it. This should have been a very simple process, no excuses for having made a complete dogs dinner of it.

That is completely nonsense. There is already a contract. Easy to sign. 

Also there is a law for a full term 5 years job for May. So a new PM not possible. 

And if such polit-clowns as you mentioned would represent UK I have my doubts. 

The real drama is that from the beginning the govt lied to the people and were not willing to show the consequences of any kind of Brexit. 

So many Brits believed in a land of milk and honey. So do you. 

That you and millions of your kind risk the future of the young ones you never cared of. 

 

[melvinmelvin]

40 minutes ago, Basil B said:

Agreed that amendment does not actually stop Brexit.

no, it doesn't stop Brexit

but as explained

it requires parliament to actively give its nod and say "go ahead, Brexit".

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

8 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Never in my wildest thoughts could I have imagined a country would screw itself over so badly.

 

Here and I thought you were talking about the U.S. and imbecile Trump....

 

It would seem, two of the world's historic democratic countries are having their struggles amid considerable divisions... and are going more than a bit topsy-turvy.

 

And all the while, Putin is sitting back and laughing his a** off and rubbing his hands with glee.

 

Somehow, there must be better ways for democratic countries to have orderly and effective governments, and not devolve into becoming dictatorships as the only way of actually getting anything done.