Fortunately for us, Brexit side's track record of offering correct predictions has not been that great. "Britons have had enough of experts" - Gove. 
 
 
They do master the skill of painting pretty unicorns, but that's about it. 
 
That's the difference between sciences and faith. 

Gove strikes me as a spineless coward.


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16 minutes ago, DILLIGAD said:

They don’t want to make it look too easy, otherwise other countries might do something the same.


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Leaving with no deal is easy - but then so it walking out on you wife of 30 years,kids house etc. Dealing with the consequences of either, less so.

33 minutes ago, aright said:

No teebee! It doesn't want to be seen forcing the UK out and jeopardizing future exports to the UK. They have no concerns beyond their vested interests. 

Exports of goods to the UK from the EU  are something 6% of all EU exports. Yes, it's significant but not a huge amount - most of it will continue anyway, but at a higher cost to UK consumers.

 

On the other hand UK services exports to the EU are a huge amount - most of these will be effectively blocked out by no deal. That is a huge plus to EU service suppliers.

1 minute ago, tebee said:

Exports of goods to the UK from the EU  are something 6% of all EU exports. Yes, it's significant but not a huge amount - most of it will continue anyway, but at a higher cost to UK consumers.

 

On the other hand UK services exports to the EU are a huge amount - most of these will be effectively blocked out by no deal. That is a huge plus to EU service suppliers.

I think you have to analyse the 6%, much of it is small amounts from many countries, fruit and veg from Spain for example....the loss of that business would cause significant difficulties for the country because that export market is on its doorstep  but also within that 6% are larger enterprises like Mercedes...…...the UK is the largest importer of their cars in Europe.

The overriding question is how will they replace that export loss. I suspect at best it will be very difficult that's why I think their niceness is as a result of their export market.

 

A no deal does not mean we wont trade it just means the trade lines will be reset on a quid pro quo basis. I have no problem with that. 

14 minutes ago, oilinki said:

These kind of expert panel talks are educational to watch. This is about rolling over existing trade deals after Brexit. Also how and why the other countries will re-negotiate deals with the UK.

 

 

So a pretty fruitless exercise then by the panel of experts as Brexit sure aint going to happen.

1 hour ago, aright said:

I think you have to analyse the 6%, much of it is small amounts from many countries, fruit and veg from Spain for example....the loss of that business would cause significant difficulties for the country because that export market is on its doorstep  but also within that 6% are larger enterprises like Mercedes...…...the UK is the largest importer of their cars in Europe.

The overriding question is how will they replace that export loss. I suspect at best it will be very difficult that's why I think their niceness is as a result of their export market.

 

A no deal does not mean we wont trade it just means the trade lines will be reset on a quid pro quo basis. I have no problem with that. 

Yes, but we will still import Mercs and Spanish fruit and veg - they will just cost everybody a bit more - granted there may be some reduction in volume but it won't be huge. 

 

On the other hand our services industries exports can be stopped in an instant - and that is where we make most of our balance of trade surplus.

Remember most trade agreements don't cover services and not give the same level of access as single market membership does.     

1 hour ago, tebee said:

Yes, but we will still import Mercs and Spanish fruit and veg - they will just cost everybody a bit more - granted there may be some reduction in volume but it won't be huge. 

 

On the other hand our services industries exports can be stopped in an instant - and that is where we make most of our balance of trade surplus.

Remember most trade agreements don't cover services and not give the same level of access as single market membership does.     

I did say quid pro quo

I agree we will still import fruit and veg but only from Spain or the EU if we can reach a mutually beneficial agreement. 65 million need to be fed on a regular basis are the EU going to say foget it we will replace that market with ?? My evening meal today is Gressingham Duck, Cornish new potatoes, Zimbabwe snow peas and Chilean asparagus, all are available in most supermarkets. Not a hint of EU in it...….apologies it will be washed down with a bottle of Sancerre but I could equally have enjoyed Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc. We currently buy fruit and veg outside the EU and can do it exclusively with the rest of the world if they want to play hard ball.

Tebee...forgive me but it's a little naïve to think that French farmers with all their subsidies are going to find a replacement market or give up on their established market.

 

As for Mercs if we Brits perceive inequality in our trading arrangement the government is likely to respond in a way unfavourable to their importation and the Brits would certainly boycott their purchase in the same way the French although they don't have a boycott in the main have a loyalty for French cars.

 

 

  

14 minutes ago, aright said:

I did say quid pro quo

I agree we will still import fruit and veg but only from Spain or the EU if we can reach a mutually beneficial agreement. 65 million need to be fed on a regular basis are the EU going to say foget it we will replace that market with ?? My evening meal today is Gressingham Duck, Cornish new potatoes, Zimbabwe snow peas and Chilean asparagus, all are available in most supermarkets. Not a hint of EU in it...….apologies it will be washed down with a bottle of Sancerre but I could equally have enjoyed Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc. We currently buy fruit and veg outside the EU and can do it exclusively with the rest of the world if they want to play hard ball.

Tebee...forgive me but it's a little naïve to think that French farmers with all their subsidies are going to find a replacement market or give up on their established market.

 

As for Mercs if we Brits perceive inequality in our trading arrangement the government is likely to respond in a way unfavourable to their importation and the Brits would certainly boycott their purchase in the same way the French although they don't have a boycott in the main have a loyalty for French cars.

 

 

  

Sounds yumsy.....except for the Renault Roulade! 

It's quite possible to import farm products from other places to replace French ones - the problem is that the reason why we import £3billion a year of them from France is because France is near and this keeps transport costs down.

 

If you're happy to pay more for your food and stoke the fires of inflation then it's not a problem.   

16 minutes ago, tebee said:

It's quite possible to import farm products from other places to replace French ones - the problem is that the reason why we import £3billion a year of them from France is because France is near and this keeps transport costs down.

 

If you're happy to pay more for your food and stoke the fires of inflation then it's not a problem.   

The proof of the pudding...……….vegetables from Africa and S America are available in all our supermarkets at competitive prices. Their prices will be even better given greater volumes. EU farm subsidies have produced expensive meat and veg. I am amazed at the much higher cost of chicken in France compared to the UK. American chicken of course will be cheaper still and that's very important to a married unskilled worker with 2-3 kids to feed. I appreciate chlorinated chicken is not every ones choice. I don't know why; KFC in the States tastes the same as the UK imo and I'm not aware of lots of tin tanks dieing as a result of eating their chicken. At least people should have the choice...it would certainly help those on lower incomes.

 

41 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Sounds yumsy.....except for the Renault Roulade! 

Not a problem if you come round I'll get a few bottles of your favourite ales.

 

53 minutes ago, oilinki said:

 

There are reasons why US based food items are not allowed to the EU. Hygiene and animal welfare for example.

 

 

But it's great if the KFC food tastes the same for you in States and in the UK.

 

(Oh, I waited a week to be able post this gif)

 

 

 

There are reasons why US based food items are not allowed to the EU. Hygiene and animal welfare for example.

 

 

You make no mention of the force feeding, intensive housing and husbandry of ducks and geese to produce foie gras in France and Spain.  I think what you are saying is poor animal welfare is not acceptable in the USA but ok in the EU. I say poor animal welfare is not acceptable anywhere.

 

As an afterthought you make no mention of bull fighting in Spain either. Perhaps you could start a movement "Save the bull" You would get my vote!

1 hour ago, aright said:

... I am amazed at the much higher cost of chicken in France compared to the UK. ...

 

That's because the French don't really "Do" frozen chicken. It's rare to find it in the shops here, only fresh. Ordinary chicken is not expensive - a fresh 1.3 kg bird is €3.65 at Lidl so about £3.25, about the same as UK ? What most French prefer to eat is the "label Rouge" chickens, free range corn fed from specific meat breeds with a good flavour, these are often 7-9 euros a kg but with a much better flavour.

 

I don't know the figure today, but at one point a few years ago 80% of the frozen chickens sold in British supermarkets were from france  - have a look at the country of origin next time you go to Tesco ! So it's not that French chicken is expensive, it's just the ship all the cheap stuff to us !

 

And it so much better than thai chicken - any decent sized bird here is to old to roast .... 

3 minutes ago, tebee said:

That's because the French don't really "Do" frozen chicken. It's rare to find it in the shops here, only fresh. Ordinary chicken is not expensive - a fresh 1.3 kg bird is €3.65 at Lidl so about £3.25, about the same as UK ? What most French prefer to eat is the "label Rouge" chickens, free range corn fed from specific meat breeds with a good flavour, these are often 7-9 euros a kg but with a much better flavour.

 

I don't know the figure today, but at one point a few years ago 80% of the frozen chickens sold in British supermarkets were from france  - have a look at the country of origin next time you go to Tesco ! So it's not that French chicken is expensive, it's just the ship all the cheap stuff to us !

 

And it so much better than thai chicken - any decent sized bird here is to old to roast .... 

I do agree corn fed chicken is better tasting but to be honest frozen or fresh chicken tastes the same to me as does turkey. Maybe its just me.

12 minutes ago, aright said:

I do agree corn fed chicken is better tasting but to be honest frozen or fresh chicken tastes the same to me as does turkey. Maybe its just me.

Frozen tends to be drier - though much of what we buy these days has added water injected before it's frozen to counteract this. 

 

It's not just being corn fed that helps the flavor - being able to move around and scratch in the dirt helps too as does having a little longer life than the 12 weeks of caged birds. Many French keep their own - I have 4 hens and cock scratching round my back yard now - I'll keep any surplus cocks for meat - though they are silkies (smallish and black meat !) 

I haven't seen grain fed beef in the UK; it was very popular when I lived in the USA. It's a mixture of soy and corn and certainly adds to the taste. I still think American beef the tastiest  and  would choose it in a restaurant despite the growth hormones. I think France has the food equation exactly right, I will be there for most of June and look forward to a Flunch meal occasionally, washed down with a dry cider. I have an apartment in Marseille where I will stay for a week and get stuck into fish. Can't wait.

2 hours ago, aright said:

Not a problem if you come round I'll get a few bottles of your favourite ales.

 

Ha ha. Stop!

2 hours ago, oilinki said:

 

There are reasons why US based food items are not allowed to the EU. Hygiene and animal welfare for example.

 

 

But it's great if the KFC food tastes the same for you in States and in the UK.

 

(Oh, I waited a week to be able post this gif)

 

 

 

Here boy! Where have you been hiding all day?

45 minutes ago, tebee said:

Frozen tends to be drier - though much of what we buy these days has added water injected before it's frozen to counteract this. 

 

It's not just being corn fed that helps the flavor - being able to move around and scratch in the dirt helps too as does having a little longer life than the 12 weeks of caged birds. Many French keep their own - I have 4 hens and cock scratching round my back yard now - I'll keep any surplus cocks for meat - though they are silkies (smallish and black meat !) 

You might want to limit the cock scratching. It might upset the hens. 

8 minutes ago, nauseus said:

You might want to limit the cock scratching. It might upset the hens. 

I agree. Too much of that and you start laughing like Tommy Cooper.

The fact that we ended up with such a bad deal on offer isn't because May is a closet remainer  - it's just down to the fact this conservative government is totally incompetent 

 

Watch and weep

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0004vyd/storyville-brexit-behind-closed-doors-part-1

18 hours ago, transam said:

YOU said I was wrong the pound devalued before Brexit, you were wrong, it went down into the 40's in 2010. We all know it dropped  from 50's to 40's when Brexit happened but it did in 2010..

 

 

Pound has been dropping ever since WWII.

1 hour ago, stevenl said:

Pound has been dropping ever since WWII.

Not really. It's a lot more mixed than that. It may now be a lot lower than it was after WW2 but it has not been continually dropping since WW2. In fact from the mid eighties on until Brexit it hadn't done badly at all.

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

Not really. It's a lot more mixed than that. It may now be a lot lower than it was after WW2 but it has not been continually dropping since WW2. In fact from the mid eighties on until Brexit it hadn't done badly at all.

 

For the 40 Baht whingers, that mid 80's low was also when you also only got 28 Baht to the Pound! 

1 hour ago, bristolboy said:

Not really. It's a lot more mixed than that. It may now be a lot lower than it was after WW2 but it has not been continually dropping since WW2. In fact from the mid eighties on until Brexit it hadn't done badly at all.

Has been worse. In 1919 there were only 12 baht to the pound.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

 

9 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

Has been worse. In 1919 there were only 12 baht to the pound.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

 

See what I mean?

2 minutes ago, Kasane said:

They still call this country "Great" Britain? Looks like the "great" label is peeling off. 

Its the rain that does it ????

On 5/7/2019 at 6:40 AM, geoffbezoz said:

Perhaps you and others should read the leaflet again.  Attached fyi.

20160523_Leaflet_EASY_READ_FINAL_VERSION (1).pdf 1.61 MB · 98 downloads

What about the other side of the story.

Instead of, could's, belief, more likely, some, cannot and think's.

19 minutes ago, geoffbezoz said:

Has been worse. In 1919 there were only 12 baht to the pound.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thai_baht

 

Oh dear !!  my would have to buy my beer.