Why Thailand is not labeled a currency manipulator by the US?

[webfact]

OPINION

 

Why Thailand is not labeled a currency manipulator by the US? 

 

 

In spite of earlier fears, Thailand has not been added to the US Department of Treasury’s watchlist because Thailand does not meet two of the three criteria set by Washington.

 

In a report written by Tananthorn Mahapornprajuck, Senior Economist at Bank of Thailand, Thailand has not been added because Thailand may meet only one criterion among the three. Thailand’s current account surplus accounting for over 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, against the limit set by the US Treasury of 2 percent.

 

However, Thailand’s trade surplus with the US is USD19 billion, against the limit of USD20 billion. Moreover, the amount of purchases of foreign currency does not increase from the previous year.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/why-thailand-is-not-labeled-a-currency-manipulator-by-the-us/

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2019-06-10

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[owl sees all]

What a relief that is then! Wouldn't want LOS to be a currency manipulator. Carry on the good work guys.

[bangkokfrog]

This watch list seems to relate mainly to the impact of currency on US trade, which for Thailand appears to be minimal (under 20 billion). In my opinion the currency is definitely manipulated, but for other reasons associated with the local (mainly Chinese) mega-rich families getting richer.

[marko kok prong]

Well never did i think i would see the pound below 40 baht,A$ is shot too.

[manchega]

surely pot kettle black being the true answer, the US is biggest of all minipulators

[madmen]

3 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

This watch list seems to relate mainly to the impact of currency on US trade, which for Thailand appears to be minimal (under 20 billion). In my opinion the currency is definitely manipulated, but for other reasons associated with the local (mainly Chinese) mega-rich families getting richer.

proof?

[Berkshire]

2 hours ago, kikeoldfool said:

If they were considered to be a currency manipulator in this situation

the US would expect Thailand to strengthen Baht !

 

In my opinion, when the dollar dives, the baht will follow.

Not clear what you're trying to say, but if Thailand were to deliberately weaken the THB to help its export sector, that would be currency manipulation in the eyes of the US GOV.  Clearly, that's not happening. 

[WalkingOrders]

Manipulated would mean pushing thb down against the USD. Thus favoring Thai exports with cheaper baht for the American buyer, especially for rice. Over the last 3 years baht has strenghtened against the dollar, which does not favor thai exports...that isnt manipulation.

[connda]

5 hours ago, owl sees all said:

What a relief that is then! Wouldn't want LOS to be a currency manipulator. Carry on the good work guys.

And keep that Thai Baht strong.  The US can then import to Thailand.  
Pssst - ignore those Thai tariffs on US goods.  Shhhhh.

[HeyHeyHey]

Almost every country is trying to push their currency down to make them more competitive in world's economy.

 

Thais are likely the only country manipulating it up to be able send their "tips" overseas and get more.

 

If they do harm to own economy, nobody else cares.

[Longcut]

3 hours ago, manchega said:

surely pot kettle black being the true answer, the US is biggest of all minipulators

How can it be a manipulator if it is currently the world standard?Manipulator against which currency?

Edited June 10, 2019 by Longcut

[thaicurious]

If currency manipulation would be reflected in exchange rates, then...

 

For another thread on 2/10/2019 (so "current" rates from then)

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1019804-whats-going-on-with-the-thai-baht/page/15/?_fromLogin=1

 

I posted this:

 

exchange rates this date

Australian 22.29

GBP 40.85

Euro 35.65

US 31.45

 

According to

https://www.ofx.com/en-us/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/monthly-average-rates/

 

20-year Monthly Average Rates

Australian 25.073927

GB Pound sterling 53.746167

Euro 42.689285

US 33.336562

 

I'm not real familiar with financial events local to others (ie Brexit, Aus housing bubble, etc.) but in US the earlier 2000s bubble thru crash probably skews and before that the 1990s Thai baht wasn't floated so maybe not even worth looking there. Here then are the latest 10 year averages

 

10-year Monthly Average Rates

Australian 28.088595

GBP 48.77557

Euro 40.810466

US 32.597824

 

By that the US to baht has remained relatively steady. 

Here's %s currently down from 10-year average

Australian 23.0201%

GBP 17.686%

Euro 13.4984%

US 3.58427%

 

So with regard to this thread, the USD/Baht exchange rate has remained relatively steady (relative to exchange rates as measured by other currencies) over a period of decades, that being to this current date:

 

today (6/10/2019) 31.35

past 10 year* average 32.59

past 20 year* average 33.33

 

*years based on date of Feb post

[JSixpack]

9 hours ago, owl sees all said:

What a relief that is then! Wouldn't want LOS to be a currency manipulator. Carry on the good work guys.

But posters here, mainly Brits, have been calling for currency manipulation for quite some time to benefit themselves. There's a constant cry from the ignorant of "not understanding" the strong baht since the Thai economy is "so bad" ???? and conspiracy theories to account for it.

 

[Acharn]

9 hours ago, owl sees all said:

What a relief that is then! Wouldn't want LOS to be a currency manipulator. Carry on the good work guys.

I would be very pleased if they would purposely weaken the currency to be more competitive. My life is an order of magnitude better when the baht is 33 or more to the US dollar.

[Sonhia]

Really!!

 

Why not also turn a blind eye to the many fake brands stiill on offer!

 

I guess stock piling foreign currency is also not considered manipulating the fincial market place..?

 

 

[Huayrat]

5 hours ago, WalkingOrders said:

Manipulated would mean pushing thb down against the USD. Thus favoring Thai exports with cheaper baht for the American buyer, especially for rice. Over the last 3 years baht has strenghtened against the dollar, which does not favor thai exports...that isnt manipulation.

Not too clever are you? A Strong baht favours the Rich and that makes the ppl in power here very Happy..

[arithai12]

2 hours ago, Benroon said:

What does that even mean ???

It means you and I cannot hope to understand the financial geniuses on this forum.

[Traubert]

12 hours ago, bangkokfrog said:

This watch list seems to relate mainly to the impact of currency on US trade, which for Thailand appears to be minimal (under 20 billion). In my opinion the currency is definitely manipulated, but for other reasons associated with the local (mainly Chinese) mega-rich families getting richer.

Chinese RMB down 12% against the baht in 12 months.

 

Clue is the RMB is pegged to the dollar. There's only one country manipulating currency and it ain't China.

 

LIfe will change when the petro-yuan comes onstream.

[mommysboy]

10 hours ago, marko kok prong said:

Well never did i think i would see the pound below 40 baht,A$ is shot too.

That's just as much because the pound is weak.  It could get weaker too.

[Longcut]

17 hours ago, Huayrat said:

Not too clever are you? A Strong baht favours the Rich and that makes the ppl in power here very Happy..

Rice?

While more than 100 varieties of rice are now grown in the world, in the US 20 varieties of rice are commercially produced, primarily in the states of Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and California. Primary classifications of rice grown are the long, medium or short-grain type. The long-grain rice is slender and long, the medium-grain rice is plump but not round, and the short-grain rice is round. The forms of rice are brown rice, parboiled rice and regular-milled white rice.^[18][20]

Domestically, 58% of rice in the US is used as food, while 16% is used in food and beer processing and 10% is used in pet food.^[20]

Edited June 11, 2019 by Longcut

[Thongkorn]

1 hour ago, Longcut said:

Rice?

While more than 100 varieties of rice are now grown in the world, in the US 20 varieties of rice are commercially produced, primarily in the states of Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and California. Primary classifications of rice grown are the long, medium or short-grain type. The long-grain rice is slender and long, the medium-grain rice is plump but not round, and the short-grain rice is round. The forms of rice are brown rice, parboiled rice and regular-milled white rice.^[18][20]

Domestically, 58% of rice in the US is used as food, while 16% is used in food and beer processing and 10% is used in pet food.^[20]

I went to buy some rice two weeks ago, Thai Jasmine rice. I bought the same Jasmine rice ,  Which was  Cambodian for baht 160 cheaper for the same weight, Thats why Thailand cannot sell its rice, Thailand use to be the biggest rice grower in the world,  The strength of the Baht is killing a lot of trade,   The poorer Thai people are struggling to live,  The strong baht is filtering through to everything, Taxis, food cloths, and many other commoditys,  And now its affecting Thai exports,  Europeans are not coming to Thailand as they use to, Russian  have stopped coming in large numbers, even the Chinese are finding it  hard to holiday in Thailand, Unless on a sponcerd Holiday from the state.

[marcusarelus]

19 hours ago, Sonhia said:

Really!!

 

Why not also turn a blind eye to the many fake brands stiill on offer!

 

I guess stock piling foreign currency is also not considered manipulating the fincial market place..?

I think it means you have a lot of tourists bringing money in and spending less than you buy abroad.  

[marcusarelus]

12 minutes ago, Thongkorn said:

I went to buy some rice two weeks ago, Thai Jasmine rice. I bought the same Jasmine rice ,  Which was  Cambodian for baht 160 cheaper for the same weight, Thats why Thailand cannot sell its rice, Thailand use to be the biggest rice grower in the world,  The strength of the Baht is killing a lot of trade,   The poorer Thai people are struggling to live,  The strong baht is filtering through to everything, Taxis, food cloths, and many other commoditys,  And now its affecting Thai exports,  Europeans are not coming to Thailand as they use to, Russian  have stopped coming in large numbers, even the Chinese are finding it  hard to holiday in Thailand, Unless on a sponcerd Holiday from the state.

I don't know man, when I got here there were 15 million tourists per year now it's 40 million or above isn't it?  When I got here my wife made 10,000 baht a month now she is making 100,000 and her family is also doing well with new homes and all the kids in college.  There are 170 institutions of higher education in Thailand, both public and private, offering 4,100 curricula. For the 2015 academic year, the universities could accommodate 156,216 new students per year.  Unemployment is close to 0 and the GDP is up.  

Edited June 11, 2019 by marcusarelus

[CGW]

2 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

I don't know man, when I got here there were 15 million tourists per year not it's 40 million or above isn't it?  When I got here my wife made 10,000 baht a month now she is making 100,000 and her family is also doing well with new homes and all the kids in college.  There are 170 institutions of higher education in Thailand, both public and private, offering 4,100 curricula. For the 2015 academic year, the universities could accommodate 156,216 new students per year.  Unemployment is close to 0 and the GDP is up.  

Be careful with the truth 

Many here believe the only way Thailand makes any money is from "Tourists" your going to spoil their day ????