Unusually large trades in oil markets shortly before an announcement by US President Donald Trump have raised questions among analysts about whether some investors may have acted on advance knowledge. Data reviewed by the BBC shows that traders placed hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on falling oil prices minutes before the president said the United States would delay planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Get today's headlines by email Surge in trades ahead of announcementThe activity took place early on Monday, shortly before Mr Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington had held “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran. At 07:04 Eastern Time (11:04 GMT), the post signalled a potential easing of tensions. Oil prices reacted immediately, dropping sharply by around 14% within minutes. However, trading volumes had already surged roughly 15 minutes earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, trades in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contracts jumped from several hundred to more than 2,000 within a minute, representing about $170m. A similar spike was recorded in Brent crude contracts, where volumes rose from just a handful of trades to more than 1,600, worth roughly $150m. Analysts flag unusual timingMarket observers say the scale and timing of the trades appear unusual, particularly given the lack of public information about any diplomatic progress at that point. Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts described the activity as “abnormal”, noting there had been no clear indication that talks between the United States and Iran were underway. Rachel Winter of Killik & Co said the pattern had prompted speculation about possible insider trading, although there is no evidence confirming that. She added that the situation could warrant further investigation by regulators. White House and market reactionThe White House has been approached for comment. A spokesperson told the Financial Times that the administration does not tolerate illegal profiteering based on insider knowledge. Markets have been highly volatile amid the Middle East conflict. In the days leading up to the announcement, Mr Trump had warned of possible strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices initially rose when markets reopened on Monday, while stock markets fell. The president’s later comments suggesting progress in talks led to a reversal, with oil prices dropping and equities recovering. Conflicting statements from IranIranian officials later denied that any talks had taken place, describing the reports as false. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said misleading information was being used to influence financial markets. The conflicting accounts added to market uncertainty and further price swings. Previous cases raise further questionsThe episode has also drawn attention because similar patterns have been observed in other politically sensitive situations. In January, a surge in bets on a prediction platform came shortly before developments involving Venezuela’s leadership. One account reportedly made more than $436,000 from a $32,537 wager. While not directly linked, such cases have fuelled broader concerns about how political events and financial markets can intersect. Analysts say that while sharp market movements are common during geopolitical crises, the timing and scale of trades in this instance are likely to attract closer scrutiny. Join the discussion? Already a member? Adapted by ASEAN Now. Source 24 March 2026
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