Thoughts on "will there be a Real High Season" this year?

[madmen]

2 hours ago, kevinmartyn said:

Even if Thailand gives visas to Pakistani, Iranian's, Iraq's, Kuwaitis, Nigerians, Somalis. That's not going to attract holiday makers to Thailand since the cost of coming to Thailand has risen over 35%-fact. Even to purchase a new vehicle by foreigners has increased over 26.8% in actual cost! The Thai economy is heading for a 1988 economic crash!

Any facts to back that? And no porn the beer bar girl saying no boom boom  Hab not many customer doesn't count

[bbi1]

It is high season all year round here. Look at the traffic jams on the weekends, the millions of Chinese everywhere, including the young adults coming in & out of the condo buildings every day, the millions of Chinese tour groups on buses being the old generation, etc. Have a walk on Walking St anywhere between midnight and 5am and it's chocker blocked full or tourists looking around and blocking the way that you have to dodge all the s'rlow walkers who have no idea where they're going. The Indian clubs are packed, the arabs are all around in their bars/clubs, and the white folks are strolling around too.

Edited August 19, 2019 by bbi1

[NCC1701A]

2 hours ago, kevinmartyn said:

Even if Thailand gives visas to Pakistani, Iranian's, Iraq's, Kuwaitis, Nigerians, Somalis. That's not going to attract holiday makers to Thailand since the cost of coming to Thailand has risen over 35%-fact. Even to purchase a new vehicle by foreigners has increased over 26.8% in actual cost! The Thai economy is heading for a 1988 economic crash!

i assume you mean 1997 economic crash?

not going to happen.

[Darkside Gray]

Hope not I hate the crowds

[dotpoom]

Will certainly give it a lot of thought when I get back home from the shopping.

[smedly]

2 hours ago, KittenKong said:

But that just means that some areas are busy with Chinese. In that respect it's like Pattaya: drive past the entrance to Walking Street at 11pm and it is heaving with Chinese, Indians, Arabs etc., but elsewhere it is quieter, with only westerners to be seen.

it might well be - but what are they doing ?

 

walking around the street

 

I think they have taken the name literally "walking street"

 

I have been here a long time and never seen it so quiet, if it doesn't pick up very soon whole streets will be wiped out, soi7 soi8, soi10 soi11 12 13 - diana etc 

Edited August 19, 2019 by smedly

[Leaver]

Tourist numbers will be up (Chinese and Indians) but the revenue from them will be down, way down.

 

So, the question is, do you judge a high season by the number of people, or the amount of money they spend? 

[LomSak27]

17 hours ago, KittenKong said:

18 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

thank you for making my point.

Chinese don't go anywhere near those places and they never will.

they are at 5 star hotels on the beach.

But that just means that some areas are busy with Chinese. In that respect it's like Pattaya: drive past the entrance to Walking Street at 11pm and it is heaving with Chinese, Indians, Arabs etc., but elsewhere it is quieter, with only westerners to be seen.

 

 

FYI;  August to first week/mid September is a major vacation time for Chinese  For a number of locations in Thailand, this is high season. It's happening right now. 

 

It better be heaving down in Pattaya and Hua Hin. Up here lots of tourists with their spinner suitcases in malls, but not phalanxs like years before.  And as they are loading up said suitcases with durian chips, tins of tuna,  noodles, etc.. I'm thinking they're not staying in 5 star hotels. 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by LomSak27

[NanLaew]

On 8/19/2019 at 12:43 AM, NCC1701A said:

yes that is what i have been saying all along. Chinese. and yes some Japanese but tons of Chinese now.

 

For which Pattaya's curmudgeonly gracefully aging Lothario's citizenry says, "You're welcome!"

[Caine]

On 8/18/2019 at 10:08 AM, NanLaew said:

Yes, quite shocking really and there doesn't seem to be too much being made of it in the Thai media (morning TV news) that I have watched. With regard to Gecko123's suggestion that more land workers will probably be seeking employment in the traditional tourist areas, there are the large industrial estates that lie to the east of Pattaya and south of Chachoengsao which may be a better bet since 'fast buck' is harder to come by with the dearth of 'traditional' tourists in Pattaya.

The large industrial estates require people to get up in the morning and reliably turn up for work. Not many Thai freeloaders prepared to do that

[Caine]

On 8/18/2019 at 6:07 PM, NCC1701A said:

next time go to bluport mall and just sit there for a few hours.

can you tell the difference between Chinese and Thais? sometimes they are hard to spot.

go to gourmet market in the middle of the day and buy something and look around you in the check out line. almost all Chinese.

 

 

On 8/18/2019 at 6:51 PM, NCC1701A said:

don't forget about world war III. It is going to start soon. The Chinese and Russians will be invading Thailand and any Americans like us will be killed out right. 

 

I’ve been reading your comments for quite some time, I’m afraid to say I think you are finally losing it. Seeking treatment is my advice you’ve been in Thailand far too long. Moving to China seems to be a good option as you seem to spend most of your time counting them, there’s millions there for you to sit in shopping malls counting, personally I have better thing to do.

[NCC1701A]

27 minutes ago, Caine said:

 

I’ve been reading your comments for quite some time, I’m afraid to say I think you are finally losing it.

yes. finally? you must be new around here.

29 minutes ago, Caine said:

 you seem to spend most of your time counting them, there’s millions there for you to sit in shopping malls counting, personally I have better thing to do.

i go grocery shopping every other day at Gourmet Market in Bluport Mall. I don't sit in the mall.

my eyes are open during the process.

i see Chinese people everywhere around me in the store and in line.  

I live in a nice part of Hua Hin right next to the beach.

groups of Chinese women walk right past my house every day.

what do you want me to do? wear a blindfold like Sandra Bullock in Bird Box?

 

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, Caine said:

The large industrial estates require people to get up in the morning and reliably turn up for work. Not many Thai freeloaders prepared to do that

Looking at Thailand's comparative GDP and the strength of the Thai baht, I reckon they have no problems with workers getting up on time and putting in the hours.

 

Meanwhile, in another thread, loads of farangs are bitching about being unable to buy alcohol between 2 PM and 5 PM. The rest don't appear to have enough money to stay here anyway.

[jacko45k]

10 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Looking at Thailand's comparative GDP and the strength of the Thai baht, I reckon they have no problems with workers getting up on time and putting in the hours

No, although they help them get there and back. I see the huge coaches dropping them off frequently near where Hwy 36 ends in Banglamung. They are obviously supplied work-clothes and always strike me as looking beat. Most are women.

[Rimmer]

Off topic and reply removed

[Rimmer]

Off topic post removed

[Leaver]

23 hours ago, Caine said:

Not many Thai freeloaders prepared to do that

Well, if there are no customers to rent their bodies, and there is no money in rice farming, I guess that leaves them with very few options other than to get a proper job.

Edited August 21, 2019 by Leaver

[NanLaew]

On 8/20/2019 at 1:47 PM, jacko45k said:

No, although they help them get there and back. I see the huge coaches dropping them off frequently near where Hwy 36 ends in Banglamung. They are obviously supplied work-clothes and always strike me as looking beat. Most are women.

Oh, so (mostly) female workers being bussed from their homes to the factory and back is a sign of... of what exactly? A poor economy is it?

 

Never mind. Someone (else) will be along shortly to complain how his genteel, learned, retired sight was blighted by seeing a couple of Isaan alkies slamming shots of lao khao and arguing at noon outside the local mom and pop store. Disgusting!

 

If he got up a bit earlier, he would probably see hundreds of younger locals going off to work in offices, markets, shops, factories and the like. In the evening, they come back home whereupon a large percentage grab something to eat, shower and change of clothes and go off to their second (or third) jobs.

 

Oh! But look! That pair of old alkies are STILL sitting drinking and arguing. Disgusting!

Edited August 22, 2019 by NanLaew

[jacko45k]

12 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Oh, so (mostly) female workers being bussed from their homes to the factory and back is a sign of... of what exactly? A poor economy is it

You should take a day off sometime!

I see it as a sign of Thais going to work and being part of the economy. Which contradicts the sentiment of the thread a bit. 

[Leaver]

44 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

You should take a day off sometime!

I see it as a sign of Thais going to work and being part of the economy. Which contradicts the sentiment of the thread a bit. 

With the strong baht, it's only a matter of time before Thailand starts to lose some of its manufacturing industry.  I believe this is already happening.

 

How are you connecting Thai factory workers to the tourism sector, and whether there will be a future high season?

[jacko45k]

4 minutes ago, Leaver said:

How are you connecting Thai factory workers to the tourism sector, and whether there will be a future high season?

Through post #103.

[Leaver]

7 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Through post #103.

The problem I see with your connection is the amount of people employed in the tourism industry that do not appear in any employment statistics, and I am not just talking about bar girls and freelancers.

 

Many work in the cash or black economy.  This is everyone from sex workers to cleaners to cooks. 

 

There could be an argument made that these Thai workers will just cater for the Chinese and Indian market, so their employment continues, albeit, just for a different customer base, however, as this demographic of tourists do not drink in bars, do not eat in restaurants, and in general, book lower end accommodation, that leaves a lot of establishments struggling, eventually closing, and a lot of Thai staff unemployed.  These people can not just walk through a factory door and start work.

 

If the tourism industry in Thailand is in decline, and that's the revenue from the tourists, not the tourist numbers, then Thailand's economy will also struggle.

[Leaver]

On 8/19/2019 at 3:30 PM, madmen said:

Any facts to back that? And no porn the beer bar girl saying no boom boom  Hab not many customer doesn't count

Whilst Thailand may not be heading for a 1988 economic crash, Porn the beer bar girl, and her friends, who are not getting any customers, may see Issan heading for an economic crash.  ????

[Wongkitlo]

don't forget about world war III. It is going to start soon. The Chinese and Russians will be invading Thailand and any Americans like us will be killed out right. 
 

It is ok if you have a Thai/Chinese wife. You will get a good job in the concentration camp.

Sent from my SM-J730F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Leaver]

14 hours ago, Wongkitlo said:

It is ok if you have a Thai/Chinese wife. You will get a good job in the concentration camp.

Sent from my SM-J730F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Some would say, we are already in a concentration camp. 

[Banana7]

My prediction is that high season will be slower than 2018-2019 high season. In regards to cash trading hands, down 10-20% from last high season.

 

Primary reasons are reduced independent foreign tourists and long stay expats. The numbers are reduced due to strict immigration enforcement, very strong baht, high prices compared to world prices and forthcoming recession. Small and medium size business will be hardest hit. Big chain hotels, big organized tour groups catering to medium and high end Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian will be OK. Pattaya is tuning into the high-end family based resort town away from the cheap charlie or retired expat model. Western tourists will be scarce due to currency devaluation, and lower economic activity. Many European countries already have negative interest rates. US treasure yield curve has been inverted several months which indicates a recession is coming. People are saving cash not spending due to the coming recession.

 

Lots of reports of foreign boyfriends having ceased sponsoring depositing/sending "retainers" to their Thai girlfriends.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2019 by Banana7

[Leaver]

The 7/11's and Family Marts near the big hotels catering for the Chinese tour groups are rammed.  These franchises have probably seen their turnover increase 300 to 400%. 

 

I walked into a 7/11 near Central the other day.  All I wanted was a bottle of water.  There were Chinese queued down the isles.  I just walked straight out. 

[Anythingleft?]

The 7/11's and Family Marts near the big hotels catering for the Chinese tour groups are rammed.  These franchises have probably seen their turnover increase 300 to 400%. 
 
I walked into a 7/11 near Central the other day.  All I wanted was a bottle of water.  There were Chinese queued down the isles.  I just walked straight out. 

A bit like more seasoned stayers in general, a high percentage also stay away from the local shops and markets due to the incessant ripping off and double pricing
Going to the chains, while boring and mediocre, means that you pay the same as everybody else

Nobody enjoys getting ripped off.....

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[losworld]

On 8/18/2019 at 2:12 PM, NCC1701A said:

yes there will be a high season. but not for so much for business that cater to western tourists. that is over. 

 

Hua Hin is very busy right now.

 

high season at 711 

[jacko45k]

17 hours ago, Leaver said:

The 7/11's and Family Marts near the big hotels catering for the Chinese tour groups are rammed.  These franchises have probably seen their turnover increase 300 to 400%. 

 

I walked into a 7/11 near Central the other day.  All I wanted was a bottle of water.  There were Chinese queued down the isles.  I just walked straight out. 

I had a friend who had a small cafe/bar poolside in a hotel. At that time the clients, mostly Russian, were forever asking him or his wife, to top off the 7-11 bought noodles with hot water from his dispenser, for free. And he did it... out of business now.