Thailand confirms six new cases of coronavirus, including four Thais - health ministry

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, BRUFC said:

I must admit I hadn't considered the lack of reaction from that quarter. I wonder why the silence?

Maybe the military controlled media might have something to do with it like they control the thaivisa news and forums as you can only say what they say you can say!It's called censorship and is on of the things the international community is concerned about. 

[Traubert]

29 minutes ago, BRUFC said:

Sorry Mr Tayout, not wishing to deflect from your confident statement, but who else besides our Yinn, identifies as Thai on this forum?

Have we been infiltrated? I think we should be told.

[Traubert]

1 hour ago, BobbyL said:

And so it begins. Just like the cases / deaths have shot up in China over recent days, I expect the same to happen here in the next week etc. 

 

 

 

 

Recovery rates have too. Climbing towards double the fatality rate.

 

Just saying......

[NCC1701A]

went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today.

not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. 

Took about three days for everyone to forget about it.

[balo]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

First it was one Thai (the taxi driver), now it's four more for a total of 5, and then and then.....  And those are just the "official" numbers...

You can add P.M Prayuth to that list,  ssssshh

 

[sammieuk1]

Looks like I have been reading fake news everything appears 100% out of control???? 

[Traubert]

3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today.

not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. 

Took about three days for everyone to forget about it.

Maybe like the more level headed of us they stopped fouling themselves at the age of three and didn't start again when natures pond rippled in their dotage.

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, Traubert said:

Recovery rates have too. Climbing towards double the fatality rate.

Yes, they should. Over time it will then end up at the mortality ratio. It's at 427/(427+713) = 37.5% right now according to JHU's dashboard. Stats are of course only as good as the data used to calculate them. Once this hits a western nation proper, then we'll see reliable numbers.

[DrTuner]

10 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

My observations - mortality rate stable, recovery climbing:

What formula did you use? death/recovery divided by confirmed/suspected/something else?

Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[shadowofacloud]

5 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

What formula did you use? death/recovery divided by confirmed/suspected/something else?

The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases.

[Tayaout]

1 minute ago, shadowofacloud said:

The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases.

Found this might interest you: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbE-UuJYw5V4FkyMZ-LplvUQZlut4oa5Zl3lrSmN_mk/edit?usp=drivesdk

[rabas]

17 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases.

I don't see how that can work. Patient studies so far (on groups with known outcomes) put it around 8%-14%, which is SARS like, which makes sense.  Anyway you must use a fixed population all with known outcomes.

 

Some disturbing corroboration from Kan Chen a formal senior scientist at J&J and Harvard trained immunologist in Shanghai:

"According to the clinical experiences of a physician at the epicentre of 2019nCoV, it is the late-onset and sudden cytokine storm that kill many patients, not the infection resulted pneumonia. This is how most Spanish flu fatalities died.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by rabas

[DrTuner]

Just now, shadowofacloud said:

The simplest possible: death/recovery divided by confirmed cases.

Ok. That's of course a lagging indicator, takes time to recover or die after the diagnosis. Strange that it is basically constant. 

 

Anyhow, here's some indication of how long it takes to resolve one way or another:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

Quote

Days from first symptom to death

The China National Health Commission reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm 22 Jan 2020. A study of these cases found that the median days from first symptom to death were 14 (range 6-41) days, and tended to be shorter among people of 70 year old or above (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those with ages below 70 year old (20 [range 10-41] days.^[6]

 

I didn't find the recovery time. I would expect more fluctuation in the graphs because of the small sample size, especially in the beginning.

[shadowofacloud]

4 minutes ago, Tayaout said:

Found this might interest you: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbE-UuJYw5V4FkyMZ-LplvUQZlut4oa5Zl3lrSmN_mk/edit?usp=drivesdk

Thanks, looks interesting - will analyze in detail later.

[GeorgeCross]

Quote

China’s national health commission announced on Tuesday that the national mortality rate of coronavirus is running at 2.1%. 

In Hubei province, which accounts for 97% of all fatalities, the rate is 3%. The commission said 80% of deaths were of people over the age of 60 and 75% had underlying conditions.

*source the guardian

 

everyone under 60 and healthy can go out tonight.

 

the rest take a break okay!!

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

According to the WHO, the numbers of total confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths in China have both more than doubled in the past four days -- Jan. 30 to Feb. 3.  And the number of confirmed cases outside China have almost doubled in that time.

 

WHO status report as of Jan. 30

 

WHO status report as of Feb. 3

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

 

 

[shadowofacloud]

8 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

According to the WHO, the numbers of total confirmed cases worldwide and the number of deaths in China have both more than doubled in the past four days -- Jan. 30 to Feb. 3.  And the number of confirmed cases outside China have almost doubled in that time.

 

  And that actually is a good thing. The cases almost quadrupled between Jan 26 and Jan 30, so the exponent factor (? sorry, not used to writing about statistics in English) is actually decreasing.

 

  If you look at the full picture, it does not look that bleak.

Edited February 4, 2020 by shadowofacloud

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

 

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, they should. Over time it will then end up at the mortality ratio. It's at 427/(427+713) = 37.5% right now according to JHU's dashboard. Stats are of course only as good as the data used to calculate them. Once this hits a western nation proper, then we'll see reliable numbers.

 

fyi....

 

 

Quote

 

Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the NHC’s Medical Administration Bureau, said that, as of Monday and based on confirmed cases nationwide, the national fatality rate was 2.1 per cent, with the vast majority of deaths in Hubei province.

 

The central Chinese province has lost 414 people, or 97 per cent of the mainland death toll. According to Jiao, the mortality rate in the provincial capital Wuhan has reached 4.9 per cent, with 313 deaths so far. The mortality rate for Hubei is 3.1 per cent, the highest of any province in the country.

 

 

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-china-death-toll-hits-425-new-cases-hubei-jump

 

[FarFlungFalang]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

went to the local Thai market in a temple here in Hua Hin today.

not a single mask to be seen anywhere. Tourists everywhere. 

Took about three days for everyone to forget about it.

Forget about what?

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

The cases almost quadrupled between Jan 26 and Jan 30, so the exponent factor (? sorry, not used to writing about statistics in English) is actually decreasing.

Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect.

[FarFlungFalang]

2 hours ago, dcnx said:

It’s going to be a little difficult to blame the Burmese on this, but it’s not over yet.

 

They will allow Chinese per usual until burn season officially kills off the numbers then they will announce strict measures to protect the country. They will be regarded as heroes globally and praised by the WHO and other organizations.

 

I don’t understand the politics of all of this but it angers me greatly.

This is the story line of "V for Vendetta" Starring Hugo Weaving and Natalie Portman,by the Wachowski Brothers.

[shadowofacloud]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Chinese might be hitting the limits of their diagnosis capabilities. When confirmed started going up at a rate of 2k+/day, the graph turned linear. Doesn't look like exponential growth, bit suspect.

Yes, that's another story. I am trying to avoid making any assumptions, simply looking at available data. The quality of this data is a different story, it's quite possible it is being manipulated.

 

A few questions:

How does hitting the limits of diagnostic capabilities work? Not enough diagnostic kits? Not enough people to analyze the samples? And what does constitute of a diagnostic kit? I assume they take blood from a person suspected of infection - what happens then? Does it have to go through a complex extraction process, be analyzed using a spectrometer or similar machine?

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

A few questions:

How does hitting the limits of diagnostic capabilities work? Not enough diagnostic kits? Not enough people to analyze the samples? And what does constitute of a diagnostic kit? I assume they take blood from a person suspected of infection - what happens then? Does it have to go through a complex extraction process, be analyzed using a spectrometer or similar machine?

This is the only article I've found about it, it's in Chinese but Google translates understandably: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xq7jT0ErmFsIXZY5m3xoNQ

 

WHO has published lab guidelines: https://www.who.int/publications-detail/laboratory-testing-for-2019-novel-coronavirus-in-suspected-human-cases-20200117

[shadowofacloud]

OK, so it seems it is not super complex, considering the know-how regarding DNA we have today (sorry for the dramatic oversimplification):

 

1. The genome of the virus was published online on 11th Jan,

2. Biotech companies take this info and manufacture some compounds (proteins, I suppose) that will attach to the viruses genome

3. Once they attach to it some reaction is triggered - color change etc.

 

That's the easy part - but you cannot just grab a random person on the street and test, it must be done in a controlled environment. Extract from the article below:

 

"The more important reason is that there are high thresholds for testing with kits, and related laboratories, instruments and technicians are required."It's not that you can measure it anywhere with this box, no. " A medical staff member said.

 

According to the prescribed procedure, the kit is usually sent to the provincial CDC, and then issued by the provincial CDC. A person in charge of the Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention told this reporter that for a new infectious disease virus, it should be managed in accordance with state-regulated infectious virus type A. To avoid contamination, testing should be done at least in a biosafety-level laboratory, "probably not in most hospitals."

 

In the testing laboratory, there must be negative pressure equipment, the air flow can only enter and cannot go out; the laboratory's cleanliness, ventilation system, disinfection and sterilization have extremely high requirements. If you do not have the conditions to do the test, it is likely that the virus will leak and the laboratory will become a source of pollution."Now it is stipulated that in the environment of secondary protection, personnel protection measures of tertiary protection should be adopted. " Wu Yong said that this requirement is high, which means that only third-tier hospitals can perform relevant tests. "Small hospitals cannot do it." "."

 

There seem to be lots of kits manufactured, but China is quite heavily populated, plus there are supply chain issues and lack of availability of sophisticated testing labs. So it all adds up to create bottlenecks.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by shadowofacloud

[AlexRich]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

I don't see how that can work. Patient studies so far (on groups with known outcomes) put it around 8%-14%, which is SARS like, which makes sense.  Anyway you must use a fixed population all with known outcomes.

 

Some disturbing corroboration from Kan Chen a formal senior scientist at J&J and Harvard trained immunologist in Shanghai:

"According to the clinical experiences of a physician at the epicentre of 2019nCoV, it is the late-onset and sudden cytokine storm that kill many patients, not the infection resulted pneumonia. This is how most Spanish flu fatalities died.

 

Ironically it’s not the virus that kills you, it’s your own immune system going into overload that does the damage.

[rabas]

23 minutes ago, shadowofacloud said:

In the testing laboratory, there must be negative pressure equipment, the air flow can only enter and cannot go out; the laboratory's cleanliness, ventilation system, disinfection and sterilization have extremely high requirements. If you do not have the conditions to do the test, it is likely that the virus will leak and the laboratory will become a source of pollution

Interesting. I wonder if  the negative pressure facility requirement is part of the reason for the Thai testing backlog. I looked for negative pressure labs and found only two in Thailand, both are dedicated to tuberculosis testing, one is a private company the other is the National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory. I don't see anything else.

 

[DrTuner]

22 minutes ago, rabas said:

Interesting. I wonder if  the negative pressure facility requirement is part of the reason for the Thai testing backlog. I looked for negative pressure labs and found only two in Thailand, both are dedicated to tuberculosis testing, one is a private company the other is the National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory. I don't see anything else.

I hit the jackpot while surfing WHO:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/conventional-rt-pcr-followed-by-sequencing-for-detection-of-ncov-rirl-nat-inst-health-t.pdf?sfvrsn=42271c6d_4

 

Quote

This protocol was kindly developed and provided by Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. This document contains RT-PCR protocol for the detection of 2019-nCoV.

Somebody apparently has RT-PCR in Thailand. There's no excuse not to do the tests.

 

Found it here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/laboratory-guidance

Quote

Thailand

National Institute of Health

http://nih.dmsc.moph.go.th/function_eng/virology_eng.html

 

Quote

Respiratory Virus Section

• Study, analyze, research and develop laboratory knowledge and technology on respiratory virus.
•  Develop the system and set the standard of respiratory virus analysis.
•  Be a reference laboratory on respiratory virus.
•  Be an information center on respiratory virus.
•  Plan and act according to international acceptant quality system. 
•  Develop laboratory quality, provide academic support and technology transfer on respiratory virus to networking laboratories, government and private laboratories.
•  Co-work with or support the work of other relevant units.

There you go. 

 

And guess who runs the Ministry of Public Health ... https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/situation.php 

 

The picture is getting crystal clear.

Edited February 4, 2020 by DrTuner

[EricTh]

delete

Edited February 4, 2020 by EricTh

[HeyHeyHey]

Hua Hin is on the roll ... this virus so far mostly kill 50+ years old

 

This would be devastating as that is probably 8 out of 10 farangs there

[EricTh]

Sooner or later, certain 'paranoid' countries like USA is going to ban Thailand and all countries in East Asia and South East Asia to the list.