UAE bans citizens from travelling to Thailand, Kuwait suspends flights

[DannyCarlton]

7 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Show me the graph that shows the exponential growth  of this virus over the last two months.

You show us the graph, as you're the one quoting from it.

 

BTW. Very, very many more Chinese have the virus than all other nations combined (which is more than half the world's population). Inner Nazis? Very insulting. Away with you, man.

[emptypockets]

18 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

You show us the graph, as you're the one quoting from it.

 

BTW. Very, very many more Chinese have the virus than all other nations combined (which is more than half the world's population). Inner Nazis? Very insulting. Away with you, man.

Can't show you the graph because it doesn't exist. There is no exponential growth except in the minds of some posters who try their best to whip up hysteria.

Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out of 1.3 billion or so Chinese have the virus?

Shoe fits wear it, man.

Edited February 26, 2020 by emptypockets

[Jumbo1968]

2 new cases, taxi driver, will there be any effort to trace all the people he has been in contact with to trace the source.

Similarly a Thai woman who has no history of being abroad she must have come into contact with some one and again will there be any effort to trace who she has been in contact with ?

I didn’t read anywhere of the location of the 2 new cases ?

 

[DannyCarlton]

1 minute ago, emptypockets said:

Can't show you the graph because it doesn't exist.

Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out if 1.3 billion or so have the virus?

Shoe fits wear it, man.

So more than half the world's population is Chinese? Much more than half the people who have Covid-19 are Chinese. If you want me to prove that stat, happy to do so.

 

The shoes don't fit me, guess you'll have to keep them.

[spiekerjozef]

As of today it should be the other way around...

[emptypockets]

7 minutes ago, DannyCarlton said:

So more than half the world's population is Chinese? Much more than half the people who have Covid-19 are Chinese. If you want me to prove that stat, happy to do so.

 

The shoes don't fit me, guess you'll have to keep them.

Why do you think more than half the world's population is Chinese?

Agree that the majority of COVID-19 cases are in China. The data supports that. But still a very small number in the big picture. The data does not support the claim of exponential growth, which is what my original comment addressed.

Edited February 26, 2020 by emptypockets

[watthong]

On 2/25/2020 at 9:53 AM, WaveHunter said:

FYI, the WHO finally came about as close to declaring a pandemic as they ever will.  Here's what they now have to say in a press conference yesterday 24 feb (still playing their word games instead of the truth IMO):

 

"Now is the time to prepare. We're in a phase of preparedness for a potential pandemic."

 

WHO Feb. 24 press conference on COVID-19 [video] - World Health Organization (WHO), February 24, 2020.

 

It boggles the mind that there still are those who look up to WHO as Moses standing on the mountain top, wielding the ten commandments. Do your own google searches, read the news, cull the facts and do the math, like two plus two equal four, you know. Use your common sense if you have any, make logic deduction (if walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, probably a duck... not a dog) and see for yourself. If you can't do any of that, then believe them and resign to being lambs led to slaughter.

 

As far as I am concerned the charlatans ("Pandemos in greek means..." - my a$%) who chair the WHO press conference, both black and white faced and anywhere in between, are criminals in regard to their vocation as an organization that is supposed to "look after" the health/ well-being of the global citizenry. They should take the "Health" off their moniker and change it to WCO (World Crook Organization).

[WaveHunter]

52 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Can't show you the graph because it doesn't exist. There is no exponential growth except in the minds of some posters who try their best to whip up hysteria.

Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out of 1.3 billion or so have the virus?

Shoe fits wear it, man.

You want a graph?  I'll show you one.  How people can still accuse those of us concerned about this outbreak of being hysterical scaremongers is beyond me. 

 

Your assertions defy common sense and the confirmed information coming from expert scientists at places like the CDC, and some of the leading epidemiologists from around the world, and even the World Health Organization. 

 

Do you really think all of these experts are simply scaremongering, and  "looking to whip up hysteria"?  Get Real! 

The study that this graph depicts looked at the actual number of people that travelled from infected areas of China and compared that to the number of cases of Chinese travellers that had been detected with the virus in those countries. 

 

What you see is the cases of infected Chinese travellers that have been detected in those countries on the Y axis (vertical axis) works pretty well with the air traffic from Wuhan (on the X axis)

 

Source of this graph:  Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) Imperial College London

 

I'll explain more about this chart and other associated data I have found in the last couple of days, and why it's particularly important to those of us in Thailand shortly, but in the meantime, you should consider refraining from criticizing people for simply looking at this situation objectively and being concerned.

 

You say, "Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out of 1.3 billion or so have the virus?"

 

Well, yes as of right now only a small percentage of the Chinese population has the virus.  A small percentage of 1.3 billion is still a very large number.

 

More importantly, confirmed infections are doubling on the average of every 6.4 days...Do the math!  It's not about what the number is today; it's about what the number will be in a week, a month, 6 months...DO THE MATH!!!

 

Also, keep in mind it only takes ONE infected person to start an epidemic in a new locale.  If you disagree. explain South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Hong Kong...and the list just keeps growing every day.

 

Scaremongering?  Really?  I don't think so!  All the naysayers like you need to realize that "facts do not cease to exists just because you wish to ignore them" (Aldous Huxley)

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DannyCarlton]

19 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Why do you think more than half the world's population is Chinese?

Agree that the majority of COVID-19 cases are in China. The data supports that. But still a very small number in the big picture. The data does not support the claim of exponential growth, which is what my original comment addressed.

I didn't say that more than half the world's population are Chinese, they clearly aren't. I asked you if you thought that.

 

It's not a small number in the big picture. It's a very big number compared to a summation of all the numbers outside China.

 

Initially the China data did suggest exponential growth. Now it looks as if it may be following a normal distribution curve. Which would be err......normal.

[metisdead]

A post using a video from an unapproved YouTube source has been removed. 

[DrTuner]

2 hours ago, emptypockets said:

They are both viruses.

No, WHO didn't want SARS to appear in the disease name so they named it COVID-19. The virus itself is called SARS-CoV-2:

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

Quote

ICTV announced “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus on 11 February 2020.  This name was chosen because the virus is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003.  While related, the two viruses are different.   

 

WHO announced “COVID-19” as the name of this new disease on 11 February 2020, following guidelines previously developed with the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

 

SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19, just as HIV causes AIDS.

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

You want a graph?  I'll show you one.  How people can still accuse those of us concerned about this outbreak of being hysterical scaremongers is beyond me. 

 

Your assertions defy common sense and the confirmed information coming from expert scientists at places like the CDC, and some of the leading epidemiologists from around the world, and even the World Health Organization. 

 

Do you really think all of these experts are simply scaremongering, and  "looking to whip up hysteria"?  Get Real! 

The study that this graph depicts looked at the actual number of people that travelled from infected areas of China and compared that to the number of cases of Chinese travellers that had been detected with the virus in those countries. 

 

What you see is the cases of infected Chinese travellers that have been detected in those countries on the Y axis (vertical axis) works pretty well with the air traffic from Wuhan (on the X axis)

 

Source of this graph:  Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) Imperial College London

 

I'll explain more about this chart and other associated data I have found in the last couple of days, and why it's particularly important to those of us in Thailand shortly, but in the meantime, you should consider refraining from criticizing people for simply looking at this situation objectively and being concerned.

 

You say, "Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out of 1.3 billion or so have the virus?"

 

Well, yes as of right now only a small percentage of the Chinese population has the virus.  A small percentage of 1.3 billion is still a very large number.

 

More importantly, confirmed infections are doubling on the average of every 6.4 days...Do the math!  It's not about what the number is today; it's about what the number will be in a week, a month, 6 months...DO THE MATH!!!

 

Also, keep in mind it only takes ONE infected person to start an epidemic in a new locale.  If you disagree. explain South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Hong Kong...and the list just keeps growing every day.

 

Scaremongering?  Really?  I don't think so!  All the naysayers like you need to realize that "facts do not cease to exists just because you wish to ignore them" (Aldous Huxley)

 

The sky is falling said Chicken Little. There is nothing that you say that suports exponential growth.

[stevenl]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

You want a graph?  I'll show you one. 

 

 

 

The request was for an exponential growth graph, since you claim there is exponential growth in number of cases.

Edited February 26, 2020 by stevenl

[emptypockets]

1 hour ago, WaveHunter said:

You want a graph?  I'll show you one.  How people can still accuse those of us concerned about this outbreak of being hysterical scaremongers is beyond me. 

 

Your assertions defy common sense and the confirmed information coming from expert scientists at places like the CDC, and some of the leading epidemiologists from around the world, and even the World Health Organization. 

 

Do you really think all of these experts are simply scaremongering, and  "looking to whip up hysteria"?  Get Real! 

The study that this graph depicts looked at the actual number of people that travelled from infected areas of China and compared that to the number of cases of Chinese travellers that had been detected with the virus in those countries. 

 

What you see is the cases of infected Chinese travellers that have been detected in those countries on the Y axis (vertical axis) works pretty well with the air traffic from Wuhan (on the X axis)

 

Source of this graph:  Report 6: Relative sensitivity of international surveillance WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) Imperial College London

 

I'll explain more about this chart and other associated data I have found in the last couple of days, and why it's particularly important to those of us in Thailand shortly, but in the meantime, you should consider refraining from criticizing people for simply looking at this situation objectively and being concerned.

 

You say, "Very, very few Chinese have the virus. Prove me wrong. How many out of 1.3 billion or so have the virus?"

 

Well, yes as of right now only a small percentage of the Chinese population has the virus.  A small percentage of 1.3 billion is still a very large number.

 

More importantly, confirmed infections are doubling on the average of every 6.4 days...Do the math!  It's not about what the number is today; it's about what the number will be in a week, a month, 6 months...DO THE MATH!!!

 

Also, keep in mind it only takes ONE infected person to start an epidemic in a new locale.  If you disagree. explain South Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, Singapore, Hong Kong...and the list just keeps growing every day.

 

Scaremongering?  Really?  I don't think so!  All the naysayers like you need to realize that "facts do not cease to exists just because you wish to ignore them" (Aldous Huxley)

 

The sky is falling said Chicken Little. There is nothing that you say that suports exponential growth.

As I said previously I don't doubt that this is a concerning situation. But focus on my original premise and don't introduce white noise into the discussion. It makes you sound desperate. I reiterate my statement. There is no evidence of exponential growth.

You should also refrain from tying to attempt other people voicing an opinion that is clearly different to yours. 

Thus is a discussion forum Don't be surprised if you see things that you don't like.

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by emptypockets

[WaveHunter]

36 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

The sky is falling said Chicken Little. There is nothing that you say that suports exponential growth.

A virus that has a doubling time of 6.4 days sure sounds exponential to me.  Look at a log chart on new reported cases in South Korea and you will see exponential growth.  What more proof do you need?

 

Look at under reported and erroneous Chinese numbers and of course you will see no exponential growth.  What else would you expect...duh!

 

You can play your silly semantics game if you wish, but there are enough expert scientists using the term "exponential" to describe this outbreak that I'm not going to waste any more time trying to justify it.

 

You are astonishingly uninformed and defiantly defend your right to stay that way.  Good luck to you.

 

BTW, I was responding to your silly assertion that Chinese people are not spreading the virus, which is such an incredibly stupid remark, there's nothing more that even needs to be said about that

 

You must be living in an alternate universe or something, based on these utterly preposterous things you are saying, and apparently believe. 

 

It's unbelievable to me that some people can be so incredibly ignorant and oblivious to reality...and then attack others for being well-informed and thinking objectively.

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[emptypockets]

34 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

While related, the two viruses are different.   

So you agree with me. They are both viruses as stated in the quote in your post.

[emptypockets]

11 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

A virus that has a doubling time of 6.4 days sure sounds exponential to me. 

 

You can play your silly semantics game if you wish, but there are enough expert scientists using the term "exponential" to describe this outbreak that I'm not going to waste any more time trying to justify it to someone who is so uninformed and defiantly defends his right to stay that way.  Have it your way.

 

BTW, I was responding to your silly assertion that Chinese people are not spreading the virus, which is such an incredibly stupid remark, there's nothing more that even needs to be said about that

 

You must be living in an alternate universe or something, based on these utterly preposterous things you are saying, and apparently believe.  Unbelievable to me that some people can be so incredibly ignorant and oblivious to reality.

 

Whose reality? 

Certainly not the one on planet Earth.

I respect your opinion and refuse to lower myself to peurile name calling, even when you are wrong.

 

My simple request was for a graph showing exponential growth. Thus far none has been forthcoming.

A lot of abuse has been spouted but alas, still no graph.

Edited February 26, 2020 by emptypockets

[stevenl]

12 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

You are astonishingly uninformed and defiantly defend your right to stay that way.  Good luck to you.

 

It's unbelievable to me that some people can be so incredibly ignorant and oblivious to reality...and then attack others for being well-informed and thinking objectively.

 

Yes, you do that on a continuous basis, attack people who disagree with you and your opinions.

[WaveHunter]

2 minutes ago, stevenl said:

Yes, you do that on a continuous basis, attack people who disagree with you and your opinions.

I don't attack people, I call them out when they say incredibly stupid and ignorant things, and then definitely attack others who for taking the time to be well-informed, and fact-based and objective in their arguments.

 

You want to debate a topic with me in an intelligent way?  Fine, I'm all up for that, but so far all you've done is spew nonsense off the top of your head with nothing factual or science based to back up your assertions.

[WaveHunter]

16 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Whose reality? 

Certainly not the one on planet Earth.

I respect your opinion and refuse to lower myself to peurile name calling, even when you are wrong.

 

My simple request was for a graph showing exponential growth. Thus far none has been forthcoming.

A lot of abuse has been spouted but alas, still no graph.

You made a stupid assertion about Chinese people not spreading the virus; that's what I was responding to, and the graph I posted supports it. 

 

If you want a graph proving exponential spread, just look at South Korea.  Just look at the damn numbers buddy...doubling daily, that could be considered exponential, don't you think?...no graph needed!

 

Look at any of the numbers anywhere; doubling time on average, every 6.4 days...No graph needed!

 

You might want to start looking at actual data and scientific information emerging daily about this outbreak instead of spewing stuff off the top of your head.

Case closed.

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DrTuner]

22 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

So you agree with me. They are both viruses as stated in the quote in your post.

SARS-CoV (the 2003 version) and SARS-CoV-2 are both viruses. COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It's not really that hard to understand.

Edited February 26, 2020 by DrTuner

[emptypockets]

1 minute ago, DrTuner said:

SARS-CoV (the 2003) and SARS-CoV-2 are both viruses. COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It's not really that hard to understand.

That's what you said. It's not what the quote in your post said. It clearly said they were similar, but different viruses. 

 

6 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

You made a stupid assertion about Chinese people not spreading the virus; that's what I was responding to, and the graph I posted supports it. 

 

If you want a graph proving exponential spread, just look at South Korea.  Just look at the damn numbers buddy...doubling daily, that could be considered exponential, don;t you think...no graph needed!

Case closed.

Every new outbreak will see a sudden increase in numbers initially as the health authorities swing into action and increase the rate of testing and diagnoses. It doesn't mean the rate of infection is accelerating in an exponential fashion. I certainly hope it never does for all of sakes.

Look back over the numbers for the last month or six weeks. Looks fairly linear to me.

[WaveHunter]

3 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

SARS-CoV (the 2003 version) and SARS-CoV-2 are both viruses. COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. It's not really that hard to understand.

Congrats on being well enough informed to know the difference...unlike some people who seem to have an aversion being well informed, and seem threatened by those who are.

[emptypockets]

Just now, WaveHunter said:

Congrats on being well enough informed to know the difference...unlike some people who seem to have an aversion being well informed, and seem threatened by those who are.

Ok . I am uniformed. Now show me the graph demonstrating exponential growth of the infection rate.

If you think I feel threatened by anyone making statements they cannot back up with evidence then you are very much mistaken.

If you cannot post the graph, that's fine. My point is made.

[WaveHunter]

35 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

That's what you said. It's not what the quote in your post said. It clearly said they were similar, but different viruses. 

 

Every new outbreak will see a sudden increase in numbers initially as the health authorities swing into action and increase the rate of testing and diagnoses. It doesn't mean the rate of infection is accelerating in an exponential fashion. I certainly hope it never does for all of sakes.

Look back over the numbers for the last month or six weeks. Looks fairly linear to me.

Look, glad you are calming down, and I should do the same...so, sorry for loosing my temper.  I just get very annoyed when people downplay this situation.  This virus is presently out of control. 

 

It's only 8 weeks old and it has surpassed SARS in most respects and is far more dangerous than Influenza in many respects.

 

All indicators are that it cannot be stopped by containment any longer thanks to how slowly the Chinese reacted back in December and then allowed over 7 million people to leave Wuhan right before containment started, almost a month after the first reported case. 

 

It was compounded by the WHO ressiting the idea of banning flights in and out of China, which thankfully, most nations and airlines ignored.  Still it was too little, too late.

 

So that dog won't hunt no more.  All that can be achieved by containment now is just to slow it down, not stop it.

Even by WHO who have been dragging their feet about this since Day 1, even they are on the cusp of finally declaring it to be a true pandemic.  That should be cause for concern in anybody's book, especially those of us living  here in Thailand.

 

The Thai officials at the Ministry of Public Health have even admitted that they are confused about why the reports of new cases have stalled, and have massively revised their guidelines

 

According to the Department of Disease Control deputy director-general Dr Thanarak Plipat, they are concerned that the number of cases has remained unchanged over the past week.  He says, "Right now we have reached a point where we are not certain if there are new cases or we are simply unable to find them.  So, we have to work more aggressively to identify new infections as soon as possible"

 

The new guidelines went into effect last week and are intended to be much more aggressive at detecting new cases, which accounts for the uptick in Persons Under Investigation (PUI), that started to occur last week and which is now up to 1,453 (as of 24 Feb) and the two new cases just added the other day.  So, you can expect to see those numbers start climbing from where they are at 37 over the next week or two I think.

 

You can believe what you want and I'll do the same.  If we discuss any further, I guess we should both just be civil about it.

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DrTuner]

4 minutes ago, WaveHunter said:

The Thai officials at the Ministry of Public Health have even admitted that theya re confused about why the reports of new cases have stalled, and have massively revised their guidelines now to be much more aggressive at detecting new cases.

Got any more info on this one?

[WaveHunter]

33 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Ok . I am uniformed. Now show me the graph demonstrating exponential growth of the infection rate.

If you think I feel threatened by anyone making statements they cannot back up with evidence then you are very much mistaken.

If you cannot post the graph, that's fine. My point is made.

Again, no graph needed.  Covid-19's accepted doubling time of 6.4 days says it all.  That is, by definition, exponential.

 

If you really need to see it in graph form ad know the difference between a linear chart and a log chart, go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

where you find plenty of linear/log charts and you can see for yourself.  I just don't have time to mess around with this anymore.

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[DrTuner]

I also found another form at WHO's site: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/booking-form-2019-ncov-world-courier.pdf?sfvrsn=bec315e3_2

 

It shows where samples are to be shipped to if the country has no WHO reference lab. In case of Cambodia, f.ex. it looks like they are shipped to either NIH in Nonthaburi or army lab in Bangkok. Which goes a long way in explaining the low confirmed cases there. Samples are likely stuck in the same queue.

[WaveHunter]

6 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Got any more info on this one?

Yes, lots.  I'm having a hard time because lot of it is written in Thai and their server is as slow as molasses. 

 

There is a fairly good article covering it on the Bangkok Post but the forum moderators won't allow me to post a link because Bangkok Post prohibits that (for some strange reason)...but if you google this "Thailand" "govt step up virus testing" you'll find it easy enough; it should be at the top of the search results.

Edited February 26, 2020 by WaveHunter

[Jiggo]

On 2/25/2020 at 9:08 AM, Maverell said:

So what do these countries know, that we don't, if they are banning travel to Thailand?

The Truth LOL