TAT: Forecast for 2020 is 30 million tourists - down 24% on last year

[webfact]

TAT: Forecast for 2020 is 30 million tourists - down 24% on last year

 

Picture: Manager Online

 

The Tourism Authority of Thailand has revised its forecast for the effect of the coronavirus crisis on Thailand's tourism industry.

 

Governor Yuthasak Suphasorn said that the latest analysis indicates that Thailand will suffer severe effects from February through July. 

 

The situation should get better from August onwards. 

 

The TAT forecast for tourism numbers in 2020 is now 30 million foreign arrivals. This would be down 24% on last year's record 39.8 million. 

 

Revenue is expected to plummet by about half a trillion baht from 1.93 trillion last year to 1.48 trillion this year. 

 

Yuthasak will present these numbers to the government in upcoming meetings. 

 

He said that if things do not improve in the second half of the year he will seek further budgets and stimulus measures from the government to prop up the tourism sector. 

 

Manager reported that currently tourist arrivals from worst affected countries was down 90%.

 

Source: Manager Online

 

 

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[johng]

11 minutes ago, webfact said:

currently tourist arrivals from worst affected countries was down 90%.

 90% That's a more realistic figure !

[ozz1]

Here we go I don't think it will be 40 percent down more like 90 but they have the best fortune teller so I guess I'm wrong lol

[madmitch]

Why are they even bothering? Nobody has a clue!

[DLock]

TAT, go radio silent for 3 months and come up with reasonable forecasts based on reality.

 

It could be 80% down on last year. Who knows? 

 

But trying to raise artificial hope or sunshine every 2 or 3 weeks with revised down forecasts...you look like Idiots.

[colinneil]

T.A.T. has revised its forecast down 24%, is that some kind of joke?

That bunch of numpties are living in LA-LA land.????

Edited March 18, 2020 by colinneil

[trainman34014]

Just a week or so ago it was only going down 5 million, so watch this space for the next downward forecast.  These people are eternal dreamers; it's all they're any good at !

[Pib]

Whatever estimates TAT gives the estimates will always be heavily slanted toward downplaying or hiding the true impact.

[PatOngo]

3 minutes ago, trainman34014 said:

These people are eternal dreamers; it's all they're any good at !

I don't think they are very good even at that! They are good at peeing into the wind though!

[ParkerN]

This prediction is quite a lot higher than I believe is likely. Thailand's tourist industry will be a catastrophe if Covid-19 is not resolved before Oct/Nov - which I don't believe it will be, even assuming it doesn't become a recurring annual event, which some medics think it will do.

 

This is going to precipitate a lot of significant changes to the world order.

 

 

1 hour ago, PatOngo said:

I don't think they are very good even at that! They are good at peeing into the wind though!

 

Ah yes. The very definition of 'getting your own back'. By the time Covid-19 disappears for this year, Prayuth will be long gone unless he can engage in some pretty fancy political footwork. If the number of infections even approaches the now-predicted 400,000 (an I suspect that is a conservative estimate), the implications for life in TL will not be survivable by Uncle Too.

 

Serious stuff, and China (who by them will have moved to several positions beyond the game-line, will come in and sweep up.

 

Big changes likely, an a number of surprising corporate casualties. Not survivable.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by ParkerN

[Misterwhisper]

I distinctly remember TAT hiring a famous fortune teller late last year, who was presented to the media with big fanfare.

 

But it is very obvious that he didn't see the coronavirus crisis coming, did he? So much for "fortune telling," the charlatanry that it is, designed to pull in naive, gullible people... such as TAT, for example.

 

An overall tourism contraction of only 24% over the year is of course a figure nobody in their right mind would believe, not even a fortune teller.

 

At the moment, foreign tourist arrivals have plummeted by roughly 80%. If we reasonably assume that this situation could well persist until end of June, Thailand will have hosted only about 4 - 5 million foreign tourists during the first half of the year.

 

In order to make up for that gigantic loss and actually achieve an annual contraction of only 24% compared to the year prior, Thailand would need to experience a huge jump in arrivals of around 150% year-on-year during the second half of 2020, i.e. from July onward.

 

When oh when will TAT finally get its act together and report facts instead of fairy tales? 

[worgeordie]

Come for 2 weeks holiday and spend it in a hotel room,

should prove very popular,maybe TAT can put a spin on it.

regards Worgeordie

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, Misterwhisper said:

I distinctly remember TAT hiring a famous fortune teller late last year, who was presented to the media with big fanfare.

 

But it is very obvious that he didn't see the coronavirus crisis coming, did he? So much for "fortune telling," the charlatanry that it is, designed to pull in naive, gullible people... such as TAT, for example.

 

An overall tourism contraction of only 24% over the year is of course a figure nobody in their right mind would believe, not even a fortune teller.

 

At the moment, foreign tourist arrivals have plummeted by roughly 80%. If we reasonably assume that this situation could well persist until end of June, Thailand will have hosted only about 4 - 5 million foreign tourists during the first half of the year.

 

In order to make up for that gigantic loss and actually achieve an annual contraction of only 24% compared to the year prior, Thailand would need to experience a huge jump in arrivals of around 150% year-on-year during the second half of 2020, i.e. from July onward.

 

When oh when will TAT finally get its act together and report facts instead of fairy tales? 

 

The day after a certain dead person comes hurtling in on a celestial chariot to save Thailand.

 

I.e. Never.

[Creasy]

TAT must have heaps of scientists and virologists on its books to predict that things will get better by August 

[Pesche]

It is absolutely astonishing to see so much incompetence!!

" The situation should get better from August onwards."

Everybody knows that September is the lowest period of visits from tourists in Thailand!

How dare can these TAT people utter such nonsense!

[mok199]

Denial matched only  by their defiance..

[spiekerjozef]

Amazing TAT !

[vangrop]

I arrived yesterday in Swampy. There were more immigration officers than people needed to be controlled. Worldwide tourism will collapse and not only by 25%. But realism aint in their dictionnary.

[RichardColeman]

I'm truly amazed that the foolish powers that be think people are immediately going to book a thai holiday after isolating themselves for 2-3 months ? They'll probably have used up all their holiday and be working for starters.  Imagine telling your boss after 3 months off, well I'm just booking a Thai holiday for a month !

[legend49]

3 hours ago, Creasy said:

TAT must have heaps of scientists and virologists on its books to predict that things will get better by August 

Yes they are called fortune tellers.

[Isaan sailor]

Reality bites, TAT.

[NE1]

Based on the Thai logic of raising prices when business is bad , who will be able to afford a holiday in Thailand by the time the all clear is given. Mind you , I suspect that TAT will give the all clear here 3 months ahead of the rest of the world.????

Edited March 18, 2020 by NE1

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, NE1 said:

Based on the Thai logic of raising prices when business is bad , who will be able to afford a holiday in Thailand by the time the all clear is given. Mind you , I suspect that TAT will give the all clear here 3 months ahead of the rest of the world.????

 

Yup, at the first hint that the infection rate is declining, TAT will be in there, advertising that TL cured the pandemic and all is well for that holiday in LOS that you always wanted.

 

Like a rat up a drainpipe... money, money money. The number 1 concern.

 

[Is this real]

Haven't been 30 mil in years.  The truth would be appreciated.

[Grumpy John]

555 Most of, all?,  posters see it for what it is. Pure unadulterated kee Kwai!  Funny in a sickening sort of way.

[terminatorchiangmai]

Don't these people know when to shut up?

[justin case]

so who will come to SE Asia who let in many chinese during a pandemic and feel safe ???

 

only horny 2 week millionaires

[Brickbat]

Sex is the national sport and Lying is the national pastime

[Tony125]

Are they still having their Consulates in nearby countries turning away farangs by not giving them back to back tourist visa's saying you been in Thailand too long ? Or IO's turning away VE and SETV who have come in multible times?

 

[ParkerN]

3 hours ago, Is this real said:

Haven't been 30 mil in years.  The truth would be appreciated.

Dream on friend, dream on...