Justifiable gloom an doom for some

[swissie]

Thailand still only generates between 11 to 15% of its GNP by Tourism. Depending on what statistic is to be believed. In Pattaya it's likely to be between 70 to 80%.
With some exeptions, most Thai's that have found gainful employement in Pattaya have not saved "for a rainy day".

Always kept in touch with my Thai friends. (I speak fairly decent Thai). The messages I receive by them by way of e-mail or Skype are devastating. With the collapse of the Tourist Industry, they all find themselves in dire-straits.
Most can find shelter among an extended family-network somewhere in the Isaan if worse comes to worse. But I know a few that can't or won't go back to the relative security of "the Family" somewhere in the heartland of Thailand as a last resort. Survival of the fittest for them in Pattaya from now on, I guess. An increased crime rate as a direct result of it, due to the lack of of other legal means of support is inevitable.

 

The "Death of Pattaya" has been predictcted 77 times before. But nobody has predicted that a microscopic Virus would be the final executor.

[Dexlowe]

Much has been said about this already. So maybe this thread could morph into one about security and how to go about protecting against the seemingly inevitable rise in crime. For example, I have urged my daughter to always lock the car doors when out. If on the motorbike, she should always look around her for anyone suspiciously following her. And if anyone suspicious comes near her to be ready to throw away some smaller notes.

[AlexRich]

This will take six months to get through but I’d be surprised if Pattaya wasn’t up and running again in 2021.
 

I’ve never witnessed a situation were people around the world were largely in the same boat. Many people will lose their jobs and businesses everywhere.

[Davo369]

As soon as i flew out of my mother I was doomed...

Edited March 31, 2020 by Davo369

[scubascuba3]

Yeah recovery for Pattaya 2021 which is when tourists start coming after vaccination

[jimmjam]

And those tourists will be the chinese.

[HashBrownHarry]

5 hours ago, Dexlowe said:

Much has been said about this already. So maybe this thread could morph into one about security and how to go about protecting against the seemingly inevitable rise in crime. For example, I have urged my daughter to always lock the car doors when out. If on the motorbike, she should always look around her for anyone suspiciously following her. And if anyone suspicious comes near her to be ready to throw away some smaller notes.

Are these not standard measures anywhere?

[BigStar]

7 hours ago, swissie said:

The "Death of Pattaya" has been predictcted 77 times before. But nobody has predicted that a microscopic Virus would be the final executor.

Well that's it then. It's final. We've at long last reached the end of the Perpetual Pattaya Death Spiral.

 

Can we now lock this and all our other Death threads, forbid new ones, and say good-bye to all our little doomsters and other trolls?

Edited April 1, 2020 by BigStar

[newnative]

  So, I guess this is number 78 in the 'Pattaya is Dead' series--stretching back who knows how many years.  That probably tells you more than anything else

[Dexlowe]

1 hour ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Are these not standard measures anywhere?

True. But people do let their guard down when times are not so fraught. And, this looks to be the very worst of times ahead of us.

[Leaver]

Pattaya will not fall into a giant hole in the ground, never to be seen again.

 

When this crisis is over, Pattaya will not be the same, and the hospitality and tourism industry here will take some rebuilding.  It will be a slow process.  

 

Pattaya, post virus, may not be a place many western expats would like to live, or many western tourists would like to visit in the future.

 

The buildings will still be standing, but all the empty buildings here will be the results of the economic destruction this virus will have caused. 

[Chivas]

7 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Pattaya will not fall into a giant hole in the ground, never to be seen again.

 

When this crisis is over, Pattaya will not be the same, and the hospitality and tourism industry here will take some rebuilding.  It will be a slow process.  

 

Pattaya, post virus, may not be a place many western expats would like to live, or many western tourists would like to visit in the future.

 

The buildings will still be standing, but all the empty buildings here will be the results of the economic destruction this virus will have caused. 

Yep and to put that into perspective both Flipper Lodge and Sabai Lodge close today....Could you imagine that announcement on any other April 1st !

[Andy from Kent]

1 hour ago, Dexlowe said:

And, this looks to be the very worst of times ahead of us.

 

Worry not.   It can always get worst.

[NCC1701A]

sadly i think the Chinese will come in to buy up everything in sight in 2021.

[fforest1]

12 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

sadly i think the Chinese will come in to buy up everything in sight in 2021.

Our worst nightmare would be Pattaya Sihanoukville #2.... 

[Leaver]

18 minutes ago, Chivas said:

Yep and to put that into perspective both Flipper Lodge and Sabai Lodge close today....Could you imagine that announcement on any other April 1st !

The closure is understandable.  The question is, will they reopen, and when?

[Leaver]

1 minute ago, fforest1 said:

Our worst nightmare would be Pattaya Sihanoukville #2.... 

Watch this space.  Entirely possible, with, or without, casinos. 

[donnacha]

9 hours ago, swissie said:

Thailand still only generates between 11 to 15% of its GNP by Tourism.

The official figures are based on spending on hotels and at high-end malls. This is why, on paper, Chinese tourists spend more than Westerners.

No one tracks the money spent on bars, bints, and buffalos. The figures do not include all the constant flow of idiots spunking their life savings away on a bargirl from Isaan marginally smarter than they are.

The actual spending by Westerners is not captured by the official stats because it is mostly spent in small businesses or supporting extended families all over the country.

My observation, from living in the suburbs of a medium-sized Thai city, is that most restaurants operate on low margins. Even where Thais are 90% of the customers, removing the 10% who are farang could wipe out that business' entire profit margin. Worse, some of their Thai customers probably own or operate businesses that depend on farangs.

It suits the government to pretend that the economy is truly diversified but, in a country with no real social welfare provision, tourism was propping up the system from below.

If this thing lasts as long as I think it will - and, for now, I'll just say that the suggestion that tourism will be up and running again in 2021 shows a complete misunderstanding of what is actually happening - many regular businesses all over the country will collapse, not just those oriented towards tourists.

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by donnacha

[donnacha]

20 minutes ago, Leaver said:

The closure is understandable.  The question is, will they reopen, and when?

It is entirely possible that the empty hotels of Pattaya could be converted into treatment centers for the infected. Pattaya is about the right distance from Bangkok, could be cordoned off effectively, and it would give the government more secrecy and control over the narrative than if they built new tent hospitals in Bangkok.

 

[fforest1]

42 minutes ago, donnacha said:

would give the government more secrecy and control over the narrative than if they built new tent hospitals in Bangkok.

 

Boy this could sure be interpreted a few different ways.......

[Chivas]

1 hour ago, Leaver said:

The closure is understandable.  The question is, will they reopen, and when?

I hazard a guess and say definately yes but when ??. I'd say next year I think Pattaya is shut for business now for 2020 but we'll see

[donnacha]

17 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

Boy this could sure be interpreted a few different ways.......

 
Oh? I wasn't aware of the other ways it could be read. Do you mean the idea that there will need to be tent hospitals? It appears that most countries will have to do some version of that.

I was thinking in terms of commandeering Pattaya to prevent the media or anyone other than staff getting within two miles of the treatment centers, so they can get on with miscategorizing and hiding the true number of sick or dead.

It now appears that the CCP, for their own reasons, requested that Thailand, as the number one foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan, delay officially acknowledging any real outbreak the kingdom until it had spread more fully around the world and the spotlight was off China and Chinese tourists.

If the number of infections in Thailand reaches into the millions, it is probable that the Thai government would want to hide the full extent of the problem in order to preserve happiness (and not end up hanged by an angry mob).

 

Edited April 1, 2020 by donnacha

[topt]

1 hour ago, donnacha said:

It now appears that the CCP, for their own reasons, requested that Thailand, as the number one foreign destination for the citizens of Wuhan, delay officially acknowledging any real outbreak the kingdom until it had spread more fully around the world and the spotlight was off China and Chinese tourists.

Is this the product of your own fertile imagination or rehashed from somewhere else?

[Ebumbu]

Time to legalize recreational ganja. It can be enjoyed at a safe distance from others. Look what it did for Colorado. 

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ebumbu

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, donnacha said:

It is entirely possible that the empty hotels of Pattaya could be converted into treatment centers for the infected. Pattaya is about the right distance from Bangkok, could be cordoned off effectively, and it would give the government more secrecy and control over the narrative than if they built new tent hospitals in Bangkok.

 

Well, if things get that bad, yes, the Thai government could acquire them and turn them into hospitals.

 

If things don't get that bad, I'm thinking a Chinese tour operator company will buy them for peanuts, and make them solely for Chinese package holiday makers. 

 

Of course, they will let Thailand's tourism industry bleed out first, then move in for the kill. 

[Leaver]

4 hours ago, donnacha said:

I was thinking in terms of commandeering Pattaya to prevent the media or anyone other than staff getting within two miles of the treatment centers, so they can get on with miscategorizing and hiding the true number of sick or dead.

Certainly handy when you think of all the elderly expat retirees here that would be dropping off, with their family back home complaining to the media. 

[WillyPlatt]

Italy, Spain and Germany are now post peak. The lockdowns are now beginning to have their desired effect. New cases are slowing.

Denmark is the first country in Europe that hopes to try to get back to a new normal by the middle of April.

Sweden has followed a herd immunity strategy in all but name. Let the population get the virus and run its course.

There is an immediate human cost to lockdown populations. Suicides, spousal, child abuse and many other issues.

The poverty that might be induced could be far costlier than any virus if this lasts any length.

I have made Pattaya my base in Thailand over the last couple of years. I spent 5 months there last year. Friendly with many business owners and live a very happy ex pat life when i am there.

I hope some of the people i know and care about are still there when I return. 

This is so sad.

[Logosone]

10 minutes ago, WillyPlatt said:

Italy, Spain and Germany are now post peak. The lockdowns are now beginning to have their desired effect. New cases are slowing.

Denmark is the first country in Europe that hopes to try to get back to a new normal by the middle of April.

Sweden has followed a herd immunity strategy in all but name. Let the population get the virus and run its course.

There is an immediate human cost to lockdown populations. Suicides, spousal, child abuse and many other issues.

The poverty that might be induced could be far costlier than any virus if this lasts any length.

I have made Pattaya my base in Thailand over the last couple of years. I spent 5 months there last year. Friendly with many business owners and live a very happy ex pat life when i am there.

I hope some of the people i know and care about are still there when I return. 

This is so sad.

Germany is not post peak. The single largest measure being used to combat the virus in Germany is testing 500,000 people a week. Germany is testing half a million people every week.

 

That is what's making the difference there. Not "lockdowns", which only have effect at the start of a pandemic, not after a virus has spread. How people cannot understand this I will never comprehend.

 

Anyway, on topic, there will be 6 to 12 months of pain for Pattaya, true, however it is better placed than most in Thailand. That is because Pattaya is basically a giant brothel and if we know one thing, after the AIDS epidemic it did not take long for bareback one night stands to make a comeback. That's how powerful the Libido is, in men even death is no deterrent for getting off. So Pattaya should be allright. All those girls will be back and will be back in work.

 

 

[Leaver]

11 hours ago, Logosone said:

Anyway, on topic, there will be 6 to 12 months of pain for Pattaya, true, however it is better placed than most in Thailand. That is because Pattaya is basically a giant brothel and if we know one thing, after the AIDS epidemic it did not take long for bareback one night stands to make a comeback. That's how powerful the Libido is, in men even death is no deterrent for getting off. So Pattaya should be allright. All those girls will be back and will be back in work.

The mongers will most likely be the first ones to come back.  My initial assessment for some tourism to return was 6 to 12 months.  I would now be leaning more towards the 12 months, not due to the virus, but due to travel warnings and travel insurance, and affordability, as tourists will not have the funds to travel anytime soon.  

[jacko45k]

On 4/1/2020 at 2:24 PM, Ebumbu said:

Time to legalize recreational ganja. It can be enjoyed at a safe distance from others. Look what it did for Colorado. 

Did they lose their grasp on reality too?