Are you really ready for two years of this?

[TooBigToFit]

I was hoping to leave Thailand this year but now things look pretty ruined.

[Muzzique]

14 minutes ago, TooBigToFit said:

I was hoping to leave Thailand this year 

You still might... RIP

[CGW]

4 hours ago, justaphase said:

All very Orwell isn't it?

It's all worked out nicely for the 1%

Destroy the common peoples lives and keep them inside.

Agenda 21 is here

Sad innit! they are going to replace us with AI ???? 

After all we did for them as well! ????

[StrandedBusinessPerson]

Looks like my semi-annual life on Hua Hin beach has come to a stop. I'm stuck in Nepal now, but hope to get back to tland someday... best of luck all! 

[FinickyFarang]

3 hours ago, AussieBob18 said:

The numbers slow and infections decline.  Restrictions will be eased slowly, but any sharp sudden increase in infections and deaths will result in them being put back in place - stronger harder and longer.

My take on this is that governments are not afraid of the deaths, per se.  They're concerned about what happens if a lot of people get infected and die.  

 

First, it would completely overwhelm the medical system like it's doing in places like NYC right now.  The medical staff can't maintain this pace and few are going to volunteer to go to a hospital overflowing with infected people.  That in itself would intensify the outbreak as people that might have lived would now be dying which fuels the panic and hysteria.  

 

Second, once you start having mass casualties from the virus, it's very hard to predict what happens to societies.  In some places it could go full-on Survival of the Fittest with people robbing and pillaging with impunity.  Other communities/societies might clamp down and hunker it out.  The main point is, it's a variable that the people in charge don't know the answer to. 

 

If this is going on for years, how many cops walk off the job rather than have to deal with potentially infected people every day?  Even the law enforcement officers that stay on will pick and choose which crimes they go after rather than risking exposure to help Mrs. Crabtree because she thinks someone is stealing her mail.  

 

Think about in terms of any movie where the world leaders decide not to tell people that an asteroid is going to hit the planet or some other catastrophe is going to wipe out the human race.  The panic could result in anarchy.  

 

That's why I think we're in for more of a on-again, off-again approach.  When infections are low, let people go about their lives.  When infections increase, tighten up.  They'll keep alternating between the two until there's a vaccine or it burns itself out.  

[JCauto]

9 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Let me just guess that "you're all right Jack!" Because that's the only way you can be that callous. I thought the "free market" was supposed to reward those who are prudent and punish those that are reckless. Instead it's rewarded the opposite behaviour, using public funds to eliminate private risk and abandoning those who need help the most. A trillion dollars in money as a "reward" to those who bought politicians was used on stock buybacks less than 2 years ago. Now they need another bailout? Maybe those corporations shouldn't have eaten all that avocado toast.

[lensta]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Well that is not the choice that countries are making for the most part so maybe you want to move to Turkmenistan. 

Actually not, look at how Sweden is handling this

 

[Kadilo]

9 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

There will come a time when a High Level Risk Assessment will be carried out and a decision will be made along those lines. 
Every day in the UK there are more announcements around spending more billions, building more hospitals, test centres etc At some point in the future we are all having to pay for this. 
There is also the impact of the stay at home initiative. It’s not sustainable for many reasons and in time will break. 
The RIsk Assessment will decide at what point the economy becomes a higher priority than a life, probably a way off yet but once the graph starts to flatten these decisions will be taken. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Kadilo

[from the home of CC]

on a personal level, sink or swim - give it your best shot or die, it's really that simple..

[AlexO]

5 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

It is however the only real solution;
let nature take its course even if tens of millions of people will die faster than expected.
There are too many people on this earth who can no longer bear it;
would you prefer a big meteorite to crash and kill 1 billion?

What is 10 or 20 million compared to 7 billion?
It's peanuts
and at least the world economies would continue to function normally because the vast majority of those who must die are retired (I am one of them)

We probably are not too far off your "let them die" scenario. The initial shock/horror of this virus will soon wear off if our lifestyles and freedoms are interfered with too much. Then political decisions will have to be made to prevent a 'Mad Max' type of society evolving. Just a thought! nuke the <deleted> out of China. Helps with World overpopulation and most of these new virus's start there. 2 birds with a few bombs so to speak.

[Ventenio]

i'll chime in with some worthless stuff:
 

1.  I still think I got this thing in January for a few weeks.   high, high fever, out of breath, vomiting.......but I'm not sure since I did seem to fully recover 2-weeks after my symptoms went away.  maybe that's normal.  My point... I think maybe 100 million people already got this thing.  for all we know, China is now immune since they all got it last year.  

 

2.  we don't know the ILLUMINATI.  This is breaking countries, and some other countries might hold on to a cure until other countries are broken for good.  Oh, I'm crazy?  lol.  maybe.  

 

3.  hunger is everything.  you get hungry, you fight till the death.  if cities get hungry, this thing is ending or governments will topple.  Probably in South America first...who knows.

 

4.  I'm guessing around July we will be "gathering."  New restrictions, a new world order, and the BIG question....what to do about China?

 

This could easily be the beginning of something much greater.  

 

If you met me in person, I would say there will be medicine in about a month and don't worry because we've all had a really, really easy life.  But on the internet.....oh, it's conspiracy time!!  

 

I do think Thailand is much safer than my home country.  So I'm happy being here.  

Edited April 4, 2020 by Ventenio

[Monomial]

I have looked at a lot of SIR models for this virus over the past few weeks. There are only 3 things that result in a return to normalcy.

 

1)  A vaccine is developed and effectively administered to everyone.

2) 90+% become infected and become naturally immune.

3) A test is created that can detect the virus in asymptomatic individuals within 24 hours of infection. This additionally requires that these individuals are immediately quarantined.

 

For #3, the test would need to be cheap and immediate. Something like a cheek swab at a roadblock.  Any one of these conditions will result in the virus being eliminated quickly from the population.

 

It is important to understand that there is no other realistic scenario where the virus goes away. These lockdown measures by themselves can only ultimately result in #2, we just get there very slowly so that hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Now consider the economic hardship that the lockdowns impart on people, the unbearable stress that results, and the depressed immune response due to that stress. Which one is actually worse? 

 

Those of you who are retired with guaranteed monthly incomes have absolutely no concept of how bad it is already. People are already growing extremely angry and are not going to accept this for long.  So it definitely won't continue like this for months. It will become dramatically worse. The only way to make this work for a long time is to turn it into a war torn police state. We are talking something much worse than North Korea.

 

There will be shortages of food because there will be protests and terrorism to try and force the government to lift the bans. That will make everything difficult.  There will be organized resistance. It is not going to be a pleasant retirement area, where you just carry on as you are now.  The more people the government throws in jail for defying the bans, the more anger and resentment will grow among the population.

 

So be prepared for some serious strife over the coming year.  Everyone had better hope that the technology to fight this virus is developed sooner rather than later.  Because we won't get "this" for 18 months. We'll get something more akin to the communist insurgency of the 70's.

 

[NoBrainer]

On average approximately 159,900 People die every day worldwide.

 

Since Jan 22nd when John Hopkins started tracking Covid related deaths we are at 59,000 devided

by approximately 70 days is 843 deaths per day. A lot of those would be included in the overall world

total figure anyway (plus or minus a few months), as they were very old with underlying medical

conditions to start with.

 

So at this point we may have an additional 500 or so deaths per day worldwide wide.

 

Hardly a dent in that 159,000 per day figure.

 

The 159,000 is calculated from a population of 7.58 Billion, with a crude death rate of 7.7 per 1000 per year

in case anyone wants to check my math.

 

So basically this is an enormous amount of chaos over nothing.

 

Everybody will become infected over the next few years, so the survivors will eventually become immune 

to the virus's effects.

 

Now if you add in all of the additional deaths from the panic, caused by suicides, stress related heart attacks and a multitude of other unknown causes, that lowers the true Covid death rate even more.

 

Time to get back to normal and let the virus run its course. We are not dealing with Ebola here.

 

No point to ruin the world with all this silliness.

 

On top of that we have medicines that are known to save many patients from even ending up on a ventilator, that are not being used for political reasons.  They have shown to be cheap & effective in a very high % of people that have received the treatment.

 

So get the medication ready for everybody that needs it, and get the world back to normal ASAP.

 

[BritManToo]

5 minutes ago, Monomial said:

There will be shortages of food because there will be protests and terrorism to try and force the government to lift the bans. That will make everything difficult.  There will be organized resistance. It is not going to be a pleasant retirement area, where you just carry on as you are now.  The more people the government throws in jail for defying the bans, the more anger and resentment will grow among the population.

Disagree, where I live in Thailand, outside Chiang Mai, the rice will still grow and the chickens will still lay eggs.

I'll be missing out with my trips to Vietnam and Cambodia, but my home life will be much the same.

Maybe a few problems with VISA extensions.

 

But Bangkok may not be that great a place to be living.

[scorecard]

8 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Disagree, where I live in Thailand, outside Chiang Mai, the rice will still grow and the chickens will still lay eggs.

I'll be missing out with my trips to Vietnam and Cambodia, but my home life will be much the same.

Maybe a few problems with VISA extensions.

 

But Bangkok may not be that great a place to be living.

Agree.

[Monomial]

9 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Disagree, where I live in Thailand, outside Chiang Mai, the rice will still grow and the chickens will still lay eggs.

I'll be missing out with my trips to Vietnam and Cambodia, but my home life will be much the same.

Maybe a few problems with VISA extensions.

 

But Bangkok may not be that great a place to be living.

 

True. In any war there are rural areas where the violence doesn't reach. Right up until it does because a roving group trying to escape the military happens to wander through. Your experience will probably be more normal punctuated by periods of severe fighting and destruction, followed by rebuilding. 

 

I was speaking in more general terms for the majority of people who live in cities.

 

[AlexO]

3 hours ago, Henryford said:

500,000 flu deaths a year, doesn't sound like much of a vaccine to me. More fatal that Coroana.

Covid-19 has only really been in the general population for 6 weeks. The fatalities numbers are doubling every 3/4 days. Start with todays numbers and do the math's of when we will be over 500K a DAY. 

[scorecard]

Just been watching the Channel 7 news here in Sydney.

 

The vaccine / treatment researchers have discovered that, in a laboratory test, a decades old head lice tablet (not shampoo) reduced the infection within 24 hours and killed the infection within 48 hours.

 

More checking underway at speed, the scientist interviewed mentioned that the medicine is well used/successful for it's original purpose and there's strong advantages in looking at it for Covid 19, in that the medicines effectiveness,  limitations, the adverse reactions etc., are well known and well documented and it has very limited recorded adverse reactions.

 

Let's hope the trials, being done in several countries, brings good news. 

 

This link gives more information:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1157725-coronavirus-anti-parasitic-drug-ivermectin-kills-covid-19-in-lab-within-48-hours/?tab=comments#comment-15253405

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by scorecard

[richard_smith237]

47 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

10 hours ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

There will come a time when a High Level Risk Assessment will be carried out and a decision will be made along those lines. 

The decision has already been made. 

A high death rate is unavoidable, an even higher death rate is avoidable and the decisions have been made word wide that potential fatales are not acceptable, hence the lockdown.

 

This was not the Case with MERS, SARS, AIDs because the transmission rates were extremely low. 

The Spanish flu had a ‘relatively low’ FCR and a lot more was known about influenza. 

 

This is something new - but to suggest (gunderhill) that they just accept the death rate is the thinking of a psychopath, especially against the complete unknown of how may may become impacted by an economic crash... Really, how many will die as a result of an economic crash?

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by richard_smith237

[JRG23]

It’ll all be fine. A few months. Stress. But once peaks are hit it will gradually go away. By the end of the year I reckon. Stay positive people.

[david555]

1 hour ago, Ventenio said:

i'll chime in with some worthless stuff:
 

1.  I still think I got this thing in January for a few weeks.   high, high fever, out of breath, vomiting.......but I'm not sure since I did seem to fully recover 2-weeks after my symptoms went away.  maybe that's normal.  My point... I think maybe 100 million people already got this thing.  for all we know, China is now immune since they all got it last year.  

 

2.  we don't know the ILLUMINATI.  This is breaking countries, and some other countries might hold on to a cure until other countries are broken for good.  Oh, I'm crazy?  lol.  maybe.  

 

3.  hunger is everything.  you get hungry, you fight till the death.  if cities get hungry, this thing is ending or governments will topple.  Probably in South America first...who knows.

 

4.  I'm guessing around July we will be "gathering."  New restrictions, a new world order, and the BIG question....what to do about China?

 

This could easily be the beginning of something much greater.  

 

If you met me in person, I would say there will be medicine in about a month and don't worry because we've all had a really, really easy life.  But on the internet.....oh, it's conspiracy time!!  

 

I do think Thailand is much safer than my home country.  So I'm happy being here.  

Come on …., ???? I am sure they repaired that bad closing milit.lab door already, and executed that security guard who had duty (if he was not the first casualty from that virus ) ????

Probably the ant-dote was in progress but not ready yet....( So if "they" are first with vaccine they are guilty at charge , proven to be already working on it …) hence the " eating Bat " story  ????

 

   ????????????

Edited April 4, 2020 by david555

[JackGats]

9 hours ago, Sambotte said:

 

...

What really scares me with this virus thing, is not the virus.

Exactly my feeling. What scares me is the whole World switching to North Corea mode.

[Why Me]

I wouldn't worry too much. Look at China. They're limping back to normal after 3 months of draconian measures. Yea, yea, I get they lie but their factories are opening which is visible to the naked eye. And, forget which business paper, I saw their output numbers were surprisingly good given the shutdown, which indicates a fast bounce back, a good portent for other economies.

 

So, I would say a couple more months, give or take, and most countries will have flattened the curve to the point that they say X infection/death rate is tolerable and go about business as usual.

 

Sure there will still be hotspots popping up here and there but as long as the general population curve is flat enough, hospitals will be able to cope with localized events.

 

In any case, I am learning to eat drink and be merry within exactly 67 sq. m.

 

 

 

 

[jak2002003]

 

 

 

53 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Disagree, where I live in Thailand, outside Chiang Mai, the rice will still grow and the chickens will still lay eggs.

I'll be missing out with my trips to Vietnam and Cambodia, but my home life will be much the same.

Maybe a few problems with VISA extensions.

 

But Bangkok may not be that great a place to be living.

 

Just hope that no one steals your chickens, and the water supply will still run to the rice fields (who will fix any broken pumps / pipes for example). 

 

Also, your house may be targeted because you are a farang and some of the villagers think you must have lots of money or valuable things stocked up in your house.

 

Don't forget all the family and people returning to your village to thier family homes as they are all out of work.  How is everyone there going to have money for food or essentials after a few months of lock down or curfew?   

 

It might look rosy for you now... but if this gets dragged out for many months, out in the sticks, there is less police presence, neighbours are not as close if you need help or assistance in an emergency, and services such as electricity and water will be on lower priority if things break out there, rather than in a more heavily populated area.  

 

 

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by jak2002003

[Krataiboy]

Arguably the most worrying aspect of the current situation is the blatant systematic trashing of traditional rights and freedoms to combat a virus of relatively modest lethality and dubious origins.

 

The way things are shaping up, the "cure" could easily end up more deadly than the disease

 

https://www.corbettreport.com/mml2020/

 

 

[Kadilo]

37 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

The decision has already been made. 

A high death rate is unavoidable, an even higher death rate is avoidable and the decisions have been made word wide that potential fatales are not acceptable, hence the lockdown.

 

This was not the Case with MERS, SARS, AIDs because the transmission rates were extremely low. 

The Spanish flu had a ‘relatively low’ FCR and a lot more was known about influenza. 

 

This is something new - but to suggest (gunderhill) that they just accept the death rate is the thinking of a psychopath, especially against the complete unknown of how may may become impacted by an economic crash... Really, how many will die as a result of an economic crash?

 

 

They are hard decisions for sure but if you think they will carry on indefinitely while the whole World economy collapses around you I think you are wrong. 
 

Is not just a question of how may will die as a result of the economic crash it’s what the future will be like with no business, no jobs, no future for the next generation etc etc. 
 

I don’t consider myself a psychopath but I believe that eventually , once the infection rates start to plateau/ reduce hard decisions will be made and that will result in countries moving back to normality step by step whilst there will still be deaths through CV. Obviously there will still be measures in place but not to the degree we are seeing now. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Kadilo

[david555]

1 minute ago, Why Me said:

I wouldn't worry too much. Look at China. They're limping back to normal after 3 months of draconian measures. Yea, yea, I get they lie but their factories are opening which is visible to the naked eye. And, forget which business paper, I saw their output numbers were surprisingly good given the shutdown, which indicates a fast bounce back, a good portent for other economies.

 

So, I would say a couple more months, give or take, and most countries will have flattened the curve to the point that they say X infection/death rate is tolerable and go about business as usual.

 

Sure there will still be hotspots popping up here and there but as long as the general population curve is flat enough, hospitals will be able to cope with localized events.

 

In any case, I am learning to eat drink and be merry within exactly 67 sq. m.

 

 

 

 

"In any case, I am learning to eat drink and be merry within exactly 67 sq. m."

 

 

Always more comfortable then a 1.2 sqm coffin ????

[drbeach]

I've read plenty of articles about where this could be going or should I say...where they want society to go. However, I seriously doubt anyone is going to accept an 18-24 month lock down. The entire world's economy would collapse, permanently.

 

While westerners like some of the posters on here may be obedient, trust me, Thais are not going to sit tight for anywhere near that long. If the rebellion at the airport where 100 Thais refused to be quarantined is any guide, make no mistake, an uprising would occur at the latest in 2-3 months and sooner, if food runs out. The authorities don't have the resources to contain the activities of such a large population; they're in the minority.

 

I give this whole thing 1-2 more months and then it will all be over.

[drbeach]

13 minutes ago, JRG23 said:

It’ll all be fine. A few months. Stress. But once peaks are hit it will gradually go away. By the end of the year I reckon. Stay positive people.

Well before then. 1-2 months max.

[drbeach]

2 minutes ago, david555 said:

"In any case, I am learning to eat drink and be merry within exactly 67 sq. m."

 

 

Always more comfortable then a 1.2 sqm coffin ????

67 sqm is a coffin as far as I'm concerned. Far too small to be comfortable.