STILL Sweden bucks the trend:

[ChipButty]

STILL Sweden bucks the trend: Public continue to mill about in groups as life goes on despite warnings their government's coronavirus approach is recipe for disaster

Pictures show shopping centres packed in Stockholm as customers walked past billboards about Covid-19

Some 230 people have died from the lethal bug in the Scandinavian country and there are almost 5,000 cases

Authorities have advised public to practice social distancing, but allow more freedom than other countries

Some 230 people have died from the lethal bug in the Scandinavian country and there are almost 5,000 cases reported.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8177607/STILL-Sweden-doesnt-learn-Public-continue-groups-life-goes-on.html 

[roo860]

Friend of mine arrived back there last Thursday, he says the same, bit unnerving.

[MikeN]

I was just reading the “other paper”, which says that the Swedish government is now changing their minds and thinking about imposing restrictions as they could be facing thousands of deaths under the present approach.

[Denim]

Be interesting to see how Sweden's strategy pans out. Might turn out to be a role model for everywhere else.

 

An acceptable number of deaths vs total economic collapse.

 

Exactly what they will decide is acceptable remains to be seen.

[FarFlungFalang]

Austria has nearly twice as many cases with nearly half as many deaths as Sweden.

[Logosone]

The mortality rate based on identified cases and deaths from Johns Hopkins:

 

Sweden : 5%

 

UK:         10%

 

The UK has extreme social distancing. Sweden does not.

 

Yet Sweden has a mortality rate half as high as the UK.

 

So another clear illustration that social distancing is of very little use.

[FarFlungFalang]

28 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Some 230 people have died from the lethal bug in the Scandinavian country and there are almost 5,000 cases

Austria

11,781

186

2,507

9,088

245

1,308

21

104,134

11,562

Sweden

6,443

373

205

5,865

379

638

37

36,900

3,654

 

From just now.   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited April 5, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[FarFlungFalang]

10 minutes ago, Logosone said:

The mortality rate based on identified cases and deaths from Johns Hopkins:

 

Sweden : 5%

 

UK:         10%

 

The UK has extreme social distancing. Sweden does not.

 

Yet Sweden has a mortality rate half as high as the UK.

 

So another clear illustration that social distancing is of very little use.

Austria has CFR 1.57% and Sweden has 5.78% from the worldometer info above.Drawing conclusions from stats on this situation seems to be a bit hit and miss at this stage with each country differing wildly in data collection.

Edited April 5, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[ChipButty]

Finland there were no new deaths yesterday and the number of people who is getting the coronavirus is declining

[UbonThani]

9 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Austria

11,781

186

2,507

9,088

245

1,308

21

104,134

11,562

Sweden

6,443

373

205

5,865

379

638

37

36,900

3,654

 

From just now.   https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Austrians have ski resorts and mountains between each house

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Austrians have ski resorts and mountains between each house

Thailand doesn't.Austria has a population of 9 mil Sweden has 10 mil so similar size and location with wildly varying numbers.

Edited April 5, 2020 by FarFlungFalang

[UbonThani]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Thailand doesn't.

Muay Thai kicks kill the virus plus chilli

[FarFlungFalang]

2 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Muay Thai kicks kill the virus plus chilli

Plus a gun toting Trictator.

[fforest1]

The Swedish people were smarter than I thought by not falling for all this Corona nonsense...

[Logosone]

16 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

Austrians have ski resorts and mountains between each house

 

It's a very interesting comparison between Austria and Sweden. Both have similar population sizes. Both have ski resorts and remote areas with few people, but both also have urban centres.

 

Ski resorts may actually play a role here. Austria's success in containing the virus is remarkable, especially if you consider that they are neighbours of Italy.

 

So what is the difference between Austria and Sweden?

 

It could be that in Austria the cases were concentrated in remote ski resorts like Ischgl, which was found to be a hotspot in Austria. Italian tourists from Lombardy brought the virus there.

 

Since these ski resorts are fairly easy to isolate, here social distancing actually meant sense. It may just be that Austria caught the virus hotspots on time and because, by chance, they were at a remote ski resort it was easier to contain the spread.

 

In Sweden by contrast, whose ski resorts are not that popular with tourists anyway and more for Swedes, the virus was brought in by a Swedish woman who returned from Wuhan and lived in Stockholm. By all accounts in an urban setting the virus spreads much quicker and easier.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Logosone

[FarFlungFalang]

Is obvious that Austria's much higher temperatures are keeping infection numbers much higher than Sweden's at the same time keeping  the CFR much lower.Confusing ain't it?  

[mauGR1]

18 minutes ago, ChipButty said:

Finland there were no new deaths yesterday and the number of people who is getting the coronavirus is declining

Less population density and less air pollution may be a factor too.

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

It's a very interesting comparison between Austria and Sweden. Both have similar population sizes. Both have ski resorts and remote areas with few people, but both also have urban centres.

 

Ski resorts may actually play a role here. Austria's success in containing the virus is remarkable, especially if you consider that they are neighbours of Italy.

 

So what is the difference between Austria and Sweden?

 

It could be that in Austria the cases were concentrated in remote ski resorts like Ischgl, which was found to be a hotspot in Austria. Italian tourists from Lombardy brought the virus there.

 

Since these ski resorts are fairly easy to isolate, here social distancing actually meant sense. It may just be that Austria caught the virus hotspots on time and because, by chance, they were at a remote ski resort it was easier to contain the spread.

 

In Sweden by contrast, whose ski resorts are not that popular with tourists anyway and more for Swedes, the virus was brought in by a Swedish woman who returned from Wuhan and lived in Stockholm. By all accounts in an urban setting the virus spreads much quicker and easier.

 

 

So how do you explain that Austria has "twice" the number of infections than Sweden if they are containing it better?Austria also has about half the CFR of Sweden?

[UbonThani]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So how do you explain that Austria has "twice" the number of infections than Sweden if they are containing it better?Austria also has about half the CFR of Sweden?

More healthy people means less deaths

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So how do you explain that Austria has "twice" the number of infections than Sweden if they are containing it better?Austria also has about half the CFR of Sweden?

Well, obviously that's just more thorough testing in Austria. Swedes are not as thorough as Germans.

 

Plus, if you consider Sir Patrick Vallance's multiple of ten times identified cases, both Austria and Sweden have many more cases, Austria most likely is just testing better.

 

I suspect, like the UK, Austria is sending tests to German labs and getting quick testing results. Sweden is probably not doing that.

 

You're probably right, it's probably more the increased high volume testing and isolating the infected that is making the difference in Austria.  By all accounts Sweden is not doing that.

 

That would explain the higher death rate for Sweden.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Logosone

[FarFlungFalang]

8 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

Less population density and less air pollution may be a factor too.

I think the main reason is there are too many factors that we are not aware of therefore trying to guess what's happening is just to tempting to resist.We "know" so little about what is going on how data is being collected and reported yet we sit in judgement of the actions people without knowing whats going on.I guess it's a case of too much information and not enough knowledge about the quality of that information.That being said I love puzzles and so I find all this intriguing.I also find my self wanting Thailand to get hit hard by the virus to justify my stance that the hot weather is not keeping the numbers down which I find appalling.

[tifino]

well, the Swedes, by necessity; had 5 years of practical experience in  protecting themselves from unwanted foreign DNA infiltrating their comfort zones...

[Logosone]

13 minutes ago, UbonThani said:

More healthy people means less deaths

This could also be a factor.

 

I used to go skiing in Bad Gastein, Austria, a lot. It is not uncommon to see elderly 70 year olds dressed up in moutain gear going for long hikes, both summer and winter.

 

Austrians love to go walking and are very outdoorsy people. Their immune system is probably better than in most other countries.

 

Then again Swedes are very similar in this regard.

 

The strong immune systems probably also play a role.

[VocalNeal]

Are there any Swedes on here? 

 

I used to live in a company village. The expats wives had a social group for house parties and stitch-and-bitch sessions but none of the Swedish women joined. They tried many times to get them to participate but no... so there take and my supposition is that swedes are less gregarious.

 

Which might have a bearing on their infection rate etc.. 

 

Finns likewise. If your neighbour lives closer than 1km, he is too close. 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by VocalNeal

[mauGR1]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I think the main reason is there are too many factors that we are not aware of therefore trying to guess what's happening is just to tempting to resist.We "know" so little about what is going on how data is being collected and reported yet we sit in judgement of the actions people without knowing whats going on

The truth is out there, everyone is free to guess what is going on, there no harm in guessing.

It's not by chance that some countries/areas have more victims, and other countries have less.

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well, obviously that's just more thorough testing in Austria. Swedes are not as thorough as Germans.

 

Plus, if you consider Sir Patrick Vallance's multiple of ten times identified cases, both Austria and Sweden have many more cases, Austria most likely is just testing better.

 

I suspect, like the UK, Austria is sending tests to German labs and getting quick testing results. Sweden is probably not doing that.

 

You're probably right, it's probably more the increased high volume testing and isolating the infected that is making the difference in Austria.  By all accounts Sweden is not doing that.

 

That would explain the higher death rate for Sweden.

I agree.I was just thinking it could be dumb luck also contributes to the varying numbers in varying ways where Sweden just happened to have a few more cases early on that just happened to hit a favourable set of circumstances for transmission and got a big head start before testing even played a role.I suspect the high transmission rate and the undetectability of this virus and the dumb luck of favourable conditions a lot to do with the varying numbers. 

[Logosone]

3 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I agree.I was just thinking it could be dumb luck also contributes to the varying numbers in varying ways where Sweden just happened to have a few more cases early on that just happened to hit a favourable set of circumstances for transmission and got a big head start before testing even played a role.I suspect the high transmission rate and the undetectability of this virus and the dumb luck of favourable conditions a lot to do with the varying numbers. 

Yes, I just looked it up, at one point Austrian testing numbers approached South Korea.

 

They tested a lot more than Sweden.

 

So there we have it. Again, testing and isolating the infected is what makes a difference.

 

Social distancing clearly does not. Sweden has far less social distancing than the UK, yet still half the mortality rate.

[FarFlungFalang]

7 minutes ago, mauGR1 said:

The truth is out there, everyone is free to guess what is going on, there no harm in guessing.

It's not by chance that some countries/areas have more victims, and other countries have less.

I put the laugh emoji there because in my next post I suggest that it may indeed be that chance plays an important role in the numbers by way of kaos.  

[NanLaew]

31 minutes ago, fforest1 said:

The Swedish people were smarter than I thought by not falling for all this Corona nonsense...

..and die anyway.

 

As far as we can see, nothing's flat-lining in Sweden quite yet, certainly not infection and death rates.

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden

 

That's a standalone statistic so for context, here's a comparison.

 

Sweden still exponential, may be a large undercount. Chart by Keith Rankin.

 

"Of special statistical significance for Sweden, its known cases have been on the same exponential path for the last two weeks (cases doubling weekly); and, over that same time period, its recorded Covid19 deaths have been on a consistently faster growth path, with deaths increasing 10-fold from 13 March (day 13) to 27 March (day 37)."

 

https://eveningreport.nz/2020/04/01/keith-rankin-chart-analysis-exponential-growth-in-italy-sweden-and-the-united-kingdom/

[vogie]

But most of europes trajectories are of a similar rate, the difference is some countries are some days behind other countries that's all, in Swedens case it is 12 days behind the UK and the chart shows it is running in paralell with the UKs trajectory, hope I'm wrong though.