Some numbers to put things into perspective

[Brunolem]

Many believe that Thailand's covid 19 cases numbers are too low to be true.

 

That is because they compare these numbers to those of the West, but it is the latter that are the exception, and not the other way round.

 

Let's look at the numbers.

 

As of now, there are 1,346,566 cases worldwide, with 74,697 deaths.

 

But, out of roughly 200 countries, only 8 of them take the lion's share.

 

These are: the USA, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, the UK, China and Iran.

 

These 8 countries represent 1,031,559 cases, or 77% of the total, and 63,899 deaths, or 85% of the total!

 

This means that the other 192 countries or so, all together, only represent 315,007 cases (an average of 1,640 per country), and 10,798 deaths (an average of 56 per country).

 

So, it appears that Thailand is not such an outlier after all...

[2long]

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

[xylophone]

55 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Let's look at the numbers.

Ah numbers.............and just yesterday I was talking to a friend on the phone and trying to put into perspective the chances of catching and then dying from Covid here.

 

I was trying to explain that the chances of catching the virus are low, as I am one in a population of 68 million, then I would have an slim chance of dying from it here if indeed there were just a few thousand deaths.

 

There are loads of figures out there about people who have contracted the virus and the percentage that have died as a direct result (or as near as can be ascertained) but nowhere have I found that my chance of dying of it here, and by that I mean catching it and then dying from it, are...... what?? 

[Guderian]

The OP's evidently not a scientist or engineer by background as he's made no attempt to control for any factors like population, date that the infection took hold, climate, and so on.

 

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2020/04/03/164529580751013618/640x360_MP4_164529580751013618.mp4

[Brunolem]

22 minutes ago, Guderian said:

The OP's evidently not a scientist or engineer by background as he's made no attempt to control for any factors like population, date that the infection took hold, climate, and so on.

 

https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2020/04/03/164529580751013618/640x360_MP4_164529580751013618.mp4

Ad hominem: the art of trying to discredit the messenger rather than the message

 

You are welcome to share your extensive scientific knowledge... 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Brunolem

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, 2long said:

Except that Thailand was the first country to get reported infections outside of China and that Thailand receives millions of visitors from China, especially in January and February.

So you mean that Thailand is THE special case in the whole world... 

 

And neighboring countries (Vietnam, Cambodia...) didn't receive lots of Chinese in January and February... 

[UbonThani]

Even so most countries few deaths

[UbonThani]

Common factpr in few deaths?

 

Social distancing perhaps

 

The huggers and kisses in Europe got smashed. The close livers got smashed.

 

 

[stephenterry]

14 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

So you mean that Thailand is THE special case in the whole world... 

 

And neighboring countries (Vietnam, Cambodia...) didn't receive lots of Chinese in January and February... 

Vietnam closed its borders on 1 Feb. Quickest to react.

[baansgr]

When 10% of infected in some countries are dying..what's your point....even now animals are testing positive...

[CRUNCHER]

To OP - 

"I never trust statistics unless I have massaged them myself". A quote often attributed to Winston Churchill, although it seems he did not make it.  Nevertheless it is still a good observation.

 

Having said that you do make a very valid point.  A lot of the hype about this panic demic needs to be put into perspective; if not your way then some other.  I still cannot help feeling that at the end of the day the cure might well be as bad as the sickness.

 

Lock downs, curfews, face masks, closed boarders etc. etc. seem to have been thrown around with gay abandon without much thought as to whether they are necessary or not; which should vary country by country.  Governments need to be seen to be doing something. So when they have taken a few sensible measures they continue to do things whether necessary or not.

 

Time will tell.

[Assurancetourix]

Thank you brunolem for opening this thread;
Since we are talking about numbers, I will give you some so that you understand that all this media hype and these scandalous confinements only exist because there is a very big eel under rock

 

I dare write it, manipulation on a very large scale

 

1969, the flu killed 25,000 in France alone and in a single month, the month of December

 

2018 (2 years ago therefore), malaria 228 million patients and 405,000 dead

 

2018, tuberculosis, 10 million patients and 1.5 million deaths

 

Dengue: WHO report: According to a recent estimate, there are 390 million cases of dengue per year of which 96 million have clinical manifestations and a number of deaths for the moment relatively low but constantly increasing. ( more explanations on WiKi )

 

As for the Ebola virus, probably the worst of all to date, its mortality rate varies from 25 to 90%, depending on the epidemic ... By comparison, it is estimated today that 98% of Covid-19 patients heal.

 

I wonder why all this end of the world cinema. I wonder what is really playing out there, behind the sick and their respirators: are we playing the Great War to better mask the great depression that is coming? Is this an economic war to prepare for the tilting of empires and the collapse of the West?

 

 

 

[CRUNCHER]

14 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

Thank you brunolem for opening this thread;
Since we are talking about numbers, I will give you some so that you understand that all this media hype and these scandalous confinements only exist because there is a very big eel under rock

 

I dare write it, manipulation on a very large scale

 

1969, the flu killed 25,000 in France alone and in a single month, the month of December

 

2018 (2 years ago therefore), malaria 228 million patients and 405,000 dead

 

2018, tuberculosis, 10 million patients and 1.5 million deaths

 

Dengue: WHO report: According to a recent estimate, there are 390 million cases of dengue per year of which 96 million have clinical manifestations and a number of deaths for the moment relatively low but constantly increasing. ( more explanations on WiKi )

 

As for the Ebola virus, probably the worst of all to date, its mortality rate varies from 25 to 90%, depending on the epidemic ... By comparison, it is estimated today that 98% of Covid-19 patients heal.

 

I wonder why all this end of the world cinema. I wonder what is really playing out there, behind the sick and their respirators: are we playing the Great War to better mask the great depression that is coming? Is this an economic war to prepare for the tilting of empires and the collapse of the West?

 

 

 

And of course the economic and social fall out from the instances you quote were just a pinprick compared with the mutilations that that Covid 19 measures are already causing.

Another instance was the last pandemic - swine fever in 2009/10.  The high side estimates are 1.4 billion infected and 500,000 deaths. The economic fall out was low, especially as this came on the heels of Leeman Brothers and the sub-prime mortgage scandal.

[soalbundy]

2 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Even so most countries few deaths

and even less testing

[Assurancetourix]

29 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

it is estimated today that 98% of Covid-19 patients heal.

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

So I cannot understand why we are shutting down countries for a ridiculously low number of people who will die from this virus.
France did not stop working in 1969 when in the month of December alone 25,000 people died from the flu.
Politics  sacrifice 99.9% of workers who would rather go to work than mop up in isolation completely useless at home.

[cornishcarlos]

2 hours ago, baansgr said:

When 10% of infected in some countries are dying..what's your point....even now animals are testing positive...

 

Animals are testing positive because people are waking up to the fact that it's a scam...

So they try another angle to scare you into submission... 

 

6 deaths in Singapore out of 1300+ cases, all with underlying conditions and most of them oldies...

The world is not disintegrating because of Covid, it's because of scaremongering and manipulation...

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

and even less testing

Testing doesn't change the number of deaths...

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Assurancetourix said:

The numbers are relentless; they don't lie.
98% of people with Covid-19 recover.
which leaves 2% of people who die from it.
(until then, am I good?)
In Italy and I don't see why it would be different in the other countries, 90% of these 2% are people at the end of their life who already have 1 to 3 serious pathologies.
People who stopped working a long time ago.

So I cannot understand why we are shutting down countries for a ridiculously low number of people who will die from this virus.
France did not stop working in 1969 when in the month of December alone 25,000 people died from the flu.
Politics  sacrifice 99.9% of workers who would rather go to work than mop up in isolation completely useless at home.

What is interesting is the large number of people, notably on this forum, who want to be scared and who reject the numbers when they are not scary enough.

 

It seems obvious that Western economies have jumped on the opportunity to give the coup de grace to their economies, which were already on their deathbed, so that they can blame it all on the virus.

 

Since the very beginning of this pandemic, I have been expecting major changes in economic policies in the West (retirement, taxes, travel and so on)...I guess we just have to wait a few more weeks or months, and see...

[soalbundy]

11 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Testing doesn't change the number of deaths...

It does if the death is just put down to heat stroke or a heart attack when in fact it was covid-19. There are a lot of homeless people in BKK and a lot of poor people in huts by the riverside who cares if a poor person is dead, nobody is going to test to find out a reason.

[xylophone]

4 hours ago, xylophone said:

There are loads of figures out there about people who have contracted the virus and the percentage that have died as a direct result (or as near as can be ascertained) but nowhere have I found that my chance of dying of it here, and by that I mean catching it and then dying from it, are...... what?? 

I was hoping that some mathematician on the thread would be able to answer this for me, but as yet no one has stepped up.

 

What I'm looking for are the odds of dying from Covid-19 here if I am a normal healthy person. For example, when there is lightning about, folks often say that it's okay to go out in it because the chances of someone dying from being hit by a bolt of lightning are one in 10 million (for example), so that's what I'm looking for with regard to this virus.

 

Any suggestions?

[Brunolem]

17 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

It does if the death is just put down to heat stroke or a heart attack when in fact it was covid-19. There are a lot of homeless people in BKK and a lot of poor people in huts by the riverside who cares if a poor person is dead, nobody is going to test to find out a reason.

Are they testing the homeless in other countries? In Los Angeles or in San Francisco, for example?

[Brunolem]

10 minutes ago, xylophone said:

I was hoping that some mathematician on the thread would be able to answer this for me, but as yet no one has stepped up.

 

What I'm looking for are the odds of dying from Covid-19 here if I am a normal healthy person. For example, when there is lightning about, folks often say that it's okay to go out in it because the chances of someone dying from being hit by a bolt of lightning are one in 10 million (for example), so that's what I'm looking for with regard to this virus.

 

Any suggestions?

From the official numbers, the odds are less than one in a million...

[Assurancetourix]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Since the very beginning of this pandemic, I have been expecting major changes in economic policies in the West (retirement, taxes, travel and so on)...I guess we just have to wait a few more weeks or months, and see...

What has nothing to do with a conspiracy theory is that in the West governments become authoritarian without the population finding fault with it.
Democracy no longer exists in Italy, France, the USA, the UK.
What already exists in China "big Brother is watching you" is happening at high speed in Europe with the proliferation not of buns and wine but of drones which fly over the cities;
In Rennes, France, the gendarmerie uses a helicopter equipped with infrared cameras which watches out for "recalcitrants" and "unruly".

 

Gattaca is at our doorstep. 

[Brunolem]

22 minutes ago, Assurancetourix said:

What has nothing to do with a conspiracy theory is that in the West governments become authoritarian without the population finding fault with it.
Democracy no longer exists in Italy, France, the USA, the UK.
What already exists in China "big Brother is watching you" is happening at high speed in Europe with the proliferation not of buns and wine but of drones which fly over the cities;
In Rennes, France, the gendarmerie uses a helicopter equipped with infrared cameras which watches out for "recalcitrants" and "unruly".

 

Gattaca is at our doorstep. 

Of course, France being France, the government has jumped on the opportunity to make money while taxing its non obedient citizens.

 

But the worst is Bill Gates who is pushing for his "freedom passport".

 

If you have in your blood the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, you get a nice passport enabling you to travel, and if you don't...well, too bad...

 

Papieren bitte!

[sammieuk1]

1 hour ago, xylophone said:

I was hoping that some mathematician on the thread would be able to answer this for me, but as yet no one has stepped up.

 

What I'm looking for are the odds of dying from Covid-19 here if I am a normal healthy person. For example, when there is lightning about, folks often say that it's okay to go out in it because the chances of someone dying from being hit by a bolt of lightning are one in 10 million (for example), so that's what I'm looking for with regard to this virus.

 

Any suggestions?

The odds about the same as the British PM in ICU its the randomness in the virus to kill or not to kill its host that is proving unquantifiable by statistics.???? 

[chessman]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

What is interesting is the large number of people, notably on this forum, who want to be scared and who reject the numbers when they are not scary enough.

I am not scared of the current numbers. I am scared of the graphs that show the increase in cases and deaths. You can't look at those and say 'nothing to see here, let's ignore it'.

[FarFlungFalang]

Long after sars cov 2 dies out and herd immunity makes it a thing of the past the flu will carry on killing 400,000 every year without a single tear being shed by those that say "but this is not the flu it's much worse".

[rvaviator]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

 

Animals are testing positive because people are waking up to the fact that it's a scam...

So they try another angle to scare you into submission... 

 

6 deaths in Singapore out of 1300+ cases, all with underlying conditions and most of them oldies...

The world is not disintegrating because of Covid, it's because of scaremongering and manipulation...

Made a lot easier to do .. if that is what is happening ... with the the use of the internet and social media ...

 

On the other hand ..., in the 'old days' ... maybe it was even easier with only Newsprint, radio ... and eventually TV ...  Generally controlled by the establishment.   Now with social medial, anybody can light a fire and work up the populous......

[chessman]

4 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Long after sars cov 2 dies out and herd immunity makes it a thing of the past the flu will carry on killing 400,000 every year without a single tear being shed by those that say "but this is not the flu it's much worse".

When you look at the graphs I posted above, what do you think? I'm genuinely curious.

[chessman]

4 hours ago, cornishcarlos said:

The world is not disintegrating because of Covid, it's because of scaremongering and manipulation...

Do you think these graphs are scaremongering and manipulation? I'm genuinely curious