Will Covid 19 settle the Climate Change Debate?

[CG1 Blue]

As we navigate this period of lockdown, we hear some interesting stories in the media such as:

 

- Cleaner seas and rivers with fish and other creatures returning to places like Venice 

- Pollution free skies enabling views of the Himalayas for Indians for the first time in 30 years, and skies generally clear of aircraft emission streaks

- Road traffic (so CO2 from road vehicles) drastically reduced 

- Herds of Deer wandering around East London streets

 

But, are the dire financial consequences of lockdown showing us the true cost of what climate change protesters want implemented? 

 

Will this period of less human activity make a material difference to global temperatures etc., such that it can prove humans are responsible for climate change? Or if it makes no difference, will it disprove that theory? 

 

Just a few thoughts from an over thinking, bored non-scientist on TVF, and I'd be interested to hear yours ????

 

 

[sungod]

Air is cleaner where I am, that's for sure.

 

A negative I see is increased waste of single use plastics, particularly takeaway services from restaurants/food vendors.

[CG1 Blue]

10 minutes ago, sungod said:

Air is cleaner where I am, that's for sure.

 

A negative I see is increased waste of single use plastics, particularly takeaway services from restaurants/food vendors.

Good point 

[wasabi]

I believe man made climate change is not real. But Man made pollution is certainly real. There is no doubt the world should rid itself of all pollution, particularly air pollution. If this happens to help the climate too that's fine with me but most proponents of climate change throw in a potpourri of other social justice warrior causes that are socialist wish lists.

[CG1 Blue]

1 hour ago, wasabi said:

I believe man made climate change is not real. But Man made pollution is certainly real. There is no doubt the world should rid itself of all pollution, particularly air pollution. If this happens to help the climate too that's fine with me but most proponents of climate change throw in a potpourri of other social justice warrior causes that are socialist wish lists.

I agree with most of what you say, especially about the socialist wish lists. I do think human activity contributes to climate change, but I doubt it makes a material difference to the Earth's natural cycles. 

[Proboscis]

I think that the Covid-19 episode will lead to worse effects on the climate because:

 

- many people/companies in western countries will default to quicker, cheaper and dirtier ways of producing and distributing goods and services due to lack of funds and need to make money to survive

- in the developing world, there will be an even more exageraged need as in the Western world. This will be aggravated by inherent poverty - while Covid-19 will be controlled in Western countries by public health measures and eventually vaccine, such measures in developing countries are going to have a more extreme effect and there will be issues with testing and vaccine distribution due to lack of funds both in the developing countries themselves and with the usual sources of funding from donors

[JCauto]

We won't have sufficient data to draw any conclusions about whether climate change is significantly man-made or not. The temperature measurements and modeling are on a global scale over the course of decades, and to attempt to draw conclusions from a small blip within this massive set of data will not be productive.

 

We are seeing immediate and positive changes to the environment as a result of the lack of vehicles and industrial activity reducing pollution and un-crowding spaces.  That this should happen so quickly and comprehensively should provide food for thought for those who doubt whether humans can have major impacts on the planet through our activities. Of course we can and of course we have.

 

We are also seeing how the massive changes in the workplace that we were assured were not possible to implement in fact were entirely possible to implement and have happened almost instantaneously and seamlessly. We are also seeing how there was no money available for health care, education, universal basic income or other "socialist" things, but suddenly now there are trillions of dollars that are appearing out of nowhere and this can be spent on these things - but only a small proportion, we still have to give away the majority of it to large corporations for some reason despite the "free market" and these corporations efficiencies, innovation and management being the thing that supposedly determines success or failure. We are also seeing how people who are denied a living wage are actually the ones we depend on to keep the modern world running. We are also seeing that "expertise", "knowledge" and "experience" are actually things that provide the best guidance for how to deal with urgent and difficult problems, rather than "gut feeling", "charisma" and "celebrity". We are also seeing how those who are gullible and attracted to conspiracy theories will ultimately end up heavily damaged by or even killed by those characteristics.

 

So I'm optimistic that once we get through this mess we will have disposed of many of the lies and people who have built this foundation of BS that has enabled us to get to this dreadful situation. The shock of the rug being pulled out from under this (false) economy will have gotten all the pain over with in one fell swoop, and the situation will be ripe for a shift to the new Green Economy where we stop allowing unfettered access to and conversion of resources (the commons) for private gain and the true costs of things are priced in. Then and only then can we find a balance and move forward.

[DrTuner]

If the temperature does not drop now, since the evil, eeeeeeeevil CO2 has decreased, there goes the money shot.

 

Looks like I got that global experiment I wanted. Will wait for results eagerly.

[andy85]

You are right, it will be interesting to how much the climate change markers are affected by the reduction in pollution. I don't think the results will really influence people though, most are firmly set in their views.

 

Climate change and coronavirus have some interesting parallels, at least to me. Notice that at the start of the epidemic, conservative pundits and politicians dismissed it, calling it a hoax, overblown media hype, politically motivated etc. They strongly denied it, right up until the moment it was staring them in the face. They have done the exact same thing with climate change.

 

Fortunately (or maybe unfortunately), the pace of climate change is very slow. By the time they'll be willing to admit something is wrong, it will be too late. They'll be long gone, and their kids and grandkids will be left to clean up the mess. I don't have a strong view on two-sided politics either way, but I do trust in the scientists that study it much more than politicians or pundits. 

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

19 minutes ago, andy85 said:

 

 

That was funny. At least they are capable of changing their view when new evidence surfaces. Some here at TVF are still going raaaahhh just a flu bro Tarzan bundolo!

[TheFishman1]

Come to Chiang Mai and tell me how good the air quality is here TIT

[utalkin2me]

15 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I agree with most of what you say, especially about the socialist wish lists. I do think human activity contributes to climate change, but I doubt it makes a material difference to the Earth's natural cycles. 

It does not really matter what people as individuals think. Trust the same people who you will trust in creating a vaccine for the current pandemic. In my opinion, whoever takes that vaccine will in essence be saying they trust the climate science as well, they just refuse to admit that to themselves. 

[JimmyJ]

 

"Will this period of less human activity make a material difference to global temperatures etc., such that it can prove humans are responsible for climate change?"

 

It has already been proven that it is an effect of Capitalism.

 

The fact that there are people on Thai Visa forums that won't accept scientific facts changes nothing.

[Kerryd]

Climate Change is NOT "man made". It is a naturally occurring cycle that has been going on ever since this planet was formed. Otherwise Earth would still be locked in a "snowball" earth phase where 99.99% of life of the planet is extinct.
These cycles last from 10s of thousands of years to 10s of millions of years, depending on a number of factors, the vast majority of which have absolutely nothing to do with mankind.

Mankind's actions have contributed to a speeding up of the current warming cycle that started at the end of the last Ice Age. Various climate models have suggested that this warming phase (or "inter-glaciation phase" as in a period between freezing cycles) would end in 1,500 years or so and the Earth would enter another (minor) Ice Age. These warming and cooling cycles happen all the time.
However, depending on the Earth's orbit around the sun during a given period, and it's axial tilt, those warming cooling periods could be extended by thousands of years (or even millions).
Some experts think that mankind's action may actually be delaying the onset of the next freezing period by 1,500-5,000 years.

Consider that the Cyrogenian Ice Age lasted from 720 to 635 million years ago. That means it lasted 85 MILLION years ! The planet was frozen completely down to the equators with only some areas around hydro-thermic vents deep in the ocean still being warm (and supporting microbacterial life).

That was just 1 of the 7 major Ice Ages the planet has gone through, just in the last 720 million years. (Each Ice Age contains numerous warming and cooling spells as well, or "glaciation" and "inter-glaciation" phases.)

As well, the Earth has also had periods where it has been completely ice free !! Those periods are referred to as the "Greenhouse Earth" periods and guess what happens during those periods ? 
Life FLOURISHES !
When the Cyrogenian Ice Age ended, it was followed by the Ediacaran Period which saw an "explosion" of life form on the planet, including the first hard-shelled life forms. The Ediacaran period is estimated to have lasted around 94 million years.

The planet is considered to be in a "Greenhouse" phase when all the ice in Antarctica and Greenland has melted.

This will really irritate some people. Scientists (real ones, not ones named Greta) estimate that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere during the Ediacaran Period were 16 times higher than in the pre-Industrial period and global temperatures were around 3 degrees (Celsius) higher than current temperatures.

Why is that ? I thought you'd never ask ! This will also irk Greta and company.

Real scientists have determined that EVERY major Ice Age was triggered by the SAME reason - LACK of CO2 in the atmosphere !

Here's what happens. CO2 is released into the atmosphere through volcanic and tectonic plate activity (we are talking about long before man was ever a gleam in an amoeba's eye).
CO2 builds up in the atmosphere and over the course of millions of years it helps trap heat and start warming the planet.

The ice/snow melts and - voila' ! Life flourishes ! Including life such as plants and trees and phytoplankton, all of which absorb CO2 and release oxygen as a byproduct !

The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the larger the plants and trees grow and the more phytoplankton there is in the seas. However, all good things must come to an end and that has been the case since long before Greta decided she was really angry and that we'd "stolen" her childhood.

Eventually, all those CO2 absorbing organisms outstrip the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere and the pendulum starts to swing the other way and the planet starts to cool down again. This process doesn't happen overnight of course (a fact more than a few seem to forget, or outright ignore).
It takes 10s of thousands of years before the effects are noticeable, but then things devolve in a hurry.

You seem when the Ice starts to reform the first thing that happens is more of the suns rays are reflected back into space, which actually speeds up the cooling process ! Eventually the oceans start to freeze over (speeding up the process), glaciers form (speeding up the process) and snow blankets the planet (speeding up the process). Life on the planet DIES.

And stays that way until eventually, enough CO2 builds up in the atmosphere (again) to allow the planet to start warming up (again).

And that has been happening ever - since - the - planet - was - formed. 

And that is what WILL keep happening long after mankind has gone extinct ! In fact, if every human on the planet died today and every fossil-fuel burning piece of machinery stopped and every methane farting cow died - 
Climate Change would STILL happen !

And it will keep happening until the sun goes super nova (or we wipe ourselves out by accidentally blowing up the planet).

Edited April 9, 2020 by Kerryd
proof reading error correction

[marquis22]

Has not stopped the smoke haze here in Lampang!!!

Still senseless burning off going on.

I wear a mask when out riding my bike but not for covid's purpose but to try and keep out the smoke particles.

[phantomfiddler]

Whoever heard of deer roaming around the streets of London ? They had better be careful in certain areas !

[1FinickyOne]

the debates will never end in this era of gaslighting and alternative facts... someone will just start another website and post ridiculous opinions that ohers who can benefit from it will claim as fact... 

[Krataiboy]

43 minutes ago, JimmyJ said:

 

"Will this period of less human activity make a material difference to global temperatures etc., such that it can prove humans are responsible for climate change?"

 

It has already been proven that it is an effect of Capitalism.

 

The fact that there are people on Thai Visa forums that won't accept scientific facts changes nothing.

Alright, I'll bite. So what's your alternative to capitalism?

[Katipo]

It may settle any debate around pollution, but climate change is a long term thing. And most deniers say their is little to no correlation between human activity (regardless of visible pollution) and the current climate changes we are seeing.

[katatonic]

16 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

I agree with most of what you say, especially about the socialist wish lists. I do think human activity contributes to climate change, but I doubt it makes a material difference to the Earth's natural cycles. 

Could we name these 'socialist wish lists?' Not sure I understand what you're trying to say here. How can human activity contribute to climate change without contributing to the earth's natural cycles? Obviously there'll always be these natural cycles but it hardly takes a genius to see that human activity is making these fluctuations far, far worse than they would be otherwise. Burning millions of tons of fossil fuels daily is obviously going to affect our thin atmosphere (just 5 miles thick at 14.7 psi averaged, i.e. sea level pressure) and how it behaves. Only an idiot could state for certainty that it doesn't, obviously, so surely ignoring the possibility is reckless in the extreme: the virus that has shut the world down is nothing compared to an unbreathable atmosphere, which may be closer than most people can imagine unfortunately. And I'm no socialist.

[Number 6]

A large part of this is just corporate, media driven news cycle. The other part is no one cares about the environment they care about living through this situation coming out with their health and finances intact.

 

While you're enjoying the nice fresh air consider also manufacturers pulling out all the stops to make as much money in the least amount of time before the wheels come off the bus.

 

Notice all the plastic that's back for carry out? The foam?

 

[Surasak]

1 hour ago, Kerryd said:

Climate Change is NOT "man made". It is a naturally occurring cycle that has been going on ever since this planet was formed. Otherwise Earth would still be locked in a "snowball" earth phase where 99.99% of life of the planet is extinct.
These cycles last from 10s of thousands of years to 10s of millions of years, depending on a number of factors, the vast majority of which have absolutely nothing to do with mankind.

Mankind's actions have contributed to a speeding up of the current warming cycle that started at the end of the last Ice Age. Various climate models have suggested that this warming phase (or "inter-glaciation phase" as in a period between freezing cycles) would end in 1,500 years or so and the Earth would enter another (minor) Ice Age. These warming and cooling cycles happen all the time.
However, depending on the Earth's orbit around the sun during a given period, and it's axial tilt, those warming cooling periods could be extended by thousands of years (or even millions).
Some experts think that mankind's action may actually be delaying the onset of the next freezing period by 1,500-5,000 years.

Consider that the Cyrogenian Ice Age lasted from 720 to 635 million years ago. That means it lasted 85 MILLION years ! The planet was frozen completely down to the equators with only some areas around hydro-thermic vents deep in the ocean still being warm (and supporting microbacterial life).

That was just 1 of the 7 major Ice Ages the planet has gone through, just in the last 720 million years. (Each Ice Age contains numerous warming and cooling spells as well, or "glaciation" and "inter-glaciation" phases.)

As well, the Earth has also had periods where it has been completely ice free !! Those periods are referred to as the "Greenhouse Earth" periods and guess what happens during those periods ? 
Life FLOURISHES !
When the Cyrogenian Ice Age ended, it was followed by the Ediacaran Period which saw an "explosion" of life form on the planet, including the first hard-shelled life forms. The Ediacaran period is estimated to have lasted around 94 million years.

The planet is considered to be in a "Greenhouse" phase when all the ice in Antarctica and Greenland has melted.

This will really irritate some people. Scientists (real ones, not ones named Greta) estimate that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere during the Ediacaran Period were 16 times higher than in the pre-Industrial period and global temperatures were around 3 degrees (Celsius) higher than current temperatures.

Why is that ? I thought you'd never ask ! This will also irk Greta and company.

Real scientists have determined that EVERY major Ice Age was triggered by the SAME reason - LACK of CO2 in the atmosphere !

Here's what happens. CO2 is released into the atmosphere through volcanic and tectonic plate activity (we are talking about long before man was ever a gleam in an amoeba's eye).
CO2 builds up in the atmosphere and over the course of millions of years it helps trap heat and start warming the planet.

The ice/snow melts and - voila' ! Life flourishes ! Including life such as plants and trees and phytoplankton, all of which absorb CO2 and release oxygen as a byproduct !

The more CO2 in the atmosphere, the larger the plants and trees grow and the more phytoplankton there is in the seas. However, all good things must come to an end and that has been the case since long before Greta decided she was really angry and that we'd "stolen" her childhood.

Eventually, all those CO2 absorbing organisms outstrip the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere and the pendulum starts to swing the other way and the planet starts to cool down again. This process doesn't happen overnight of course (a fact more than a few seem to forget, or outright ignore).
It takes 10s of thousands of years before the effects are noticeable, but then things devolve in a hurry.

You seem when the Ice starts to reform the first thing that happens is more of the suns rays are reflected back into space, which actually speeds up the cooling process ! Eventually the oceans start to freeze over (speeding up the process), glaciers form (speeding up the process) and snow blankets the planet (speeding up the process). Life on the planet DIES.

And stays that way until eventually, enough CO2 builds up in the atmosphere (again) to allow the planet to start warming up (again).

And that has been happening ever - since - the - planet - was - formed. 

And that is what WILL keep happening long after mankind has gone extinct ! In fact, if every human on the planet died today and every fossil-fuel burning piece of machinery stopped and every methane farting cow died - 
Climate Change would STILL happen !

And it will keep happening until the sun goes super nova (or we wipe ourselves out by accidentally blowing up the planet).

A very interesting and well written piece of information. If you have no objections, I would like to keep a copy?

[Dap]

First off, when I read the thread title my first thought was, "Click-Bait", as this is after all TVF, but when I opened it I was pleasantly surprised to find a statement followed by intelligent questions. Thank you very much for that, and to reply I gotta say that what we see occurring may very well be nothing more than a flash in the pan cuz' just as soon as people will need to get back to surviving we may very well be overwhelmed with a return of all the Cr*P, but this time with a vengeance never before seen as a whole lotta' folk are gonna need to make money quickly just to survive. This virus thing will of course come to its own demise as all eventually do, but the deciding factor to determine the outcomes to your queries (in my opinion) is gonna' be how long this lasts and how devastating it will be to the numbers creating the pollution that's ultimately killing us all in the first place. 

This is a conversation that could easily consume and entire evening along with a case of ice-cold beers, but I tried to be somewhat brief. Cheers for the moment of sanity 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Dap

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Kerryd said:

And it will keep happening until the sun goes super nova (or we wipe ourselves out by accidentally blowing up the planet).

The scientific demonstration was impressive, until this last paragraph...

 

The sun won't go supernova, too small for that...it will evolve into a red giant that will ultimately destroy the Earth and the other planets...

[mrfill]

27 minutes ago, Surasak said:

A very interesting and well written piece of information. If you have no objections, I would like to keep a copy?

Do that and read it again bearing in mind that man has destroyed a third of the main 'CO2 absorbing organisms' (rain forest) in the last 60 years. And that CO2 remains in the atmosphere for around 50 years before being absorbed.

I'm afraid you can't just burn your way out of it.

[rickudon]

28 minutes ago, Surasak said:

A very interesting and well written piece of information. If you have no objections, I would like to keep a copy?

Is that for some fake news website? KerryD has about as much understanding of climate change as my Thai M-in-L. His science is just a mishmash of facts put in a paper shredder and reassembled by a child.......

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Krataiboy said:

Alright, I'll bite. So what's your alternative to capitalism?

We have not been in a capitalist system for a very long time...most countries are socialist, and we can see it during this crisis, where everybody is coming, hat in hand, to beg the nanny state for help...

[Kerryd]

Lol - can't wait to hear about how Climate Change is actually man's fault and how it never, ever happened before man evolved.

 

[Krataiboy]

8 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We have not been in a capitalist system for a very long time...most countries are socialist, and we can see it during this crisis, where everybody is coming, hat in hand, to beg the nanny state for help...

Sounds a bit like China, which some believe is the role model for where we all be heading courtesy of post-plandemic mass social engineering.

 

Yeah, I know. Bloomin' conspiracy theorists.

[mrfill]

17 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

We have not been in a capitalist system for a very long time...most countries are socialist, and we can see it during this crisis, where everybody is coming, hat in hand, to beg the nanny state for help...

Capitalism is a method of running an economy. Socialism is a political theory. A country can be socialist AND capitalist - like Norway or Finland.