Change is a comin

[Max69xl]

23 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

No doubt about it. This world will barely be recognizable after this thing is finished. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb. The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat? $400 for a seat in the nose bleed section? $1,000 for a seat to see Hamilton on Broadway? In LA, people were paying $1,000 each for a 10th row seat, to see an NBA game! Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay high prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. Nobody knows how the restart is going to happen, what it is going to look like, how long it is going to take, and how many millions of businesses will simply never reopen.

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 400,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. So do the government workers. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world. 

 

Tourism here will be decimated for the next couple of years. The people who are the target crowd for Thailand (lower and lower middle income folks) are the ones who were hurt the most. 

 

You seem to have forgotten about the common flu which has killed >300k people/year worldwide the last few years. No one is talking about it anymore, and why is that? In many countries the numbers of deaths from Covid-19 is almost the same as from the flu. So what's the difference? The Thai government doesn't have a clue about the common flu and the numbers overseas. Several restrictions are a joke compared to other countries when thinking about official cases and deaths in a country with ~69 million people. 

[Bangkok Barry]

23 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Most youth live in the dreamy land of Inexperience

And that is why, despite the hype, Greta Thunberg is gong to have little to no influence.

[spidermike007]

19 minutes ago, Max69xl said:

You seem to have forgotten about the common flu which has killed >300k people/year worldwide the last few years. No one is talking about it anymore, and why is that? In many countries the numbers of deaths from Covid-19 is almost the same as from the flu. So what's the difference? The Thai government doesn't have a clue about the common flu and the numbers overseas. Several restrictions are a joke compared to other countries when thinking about official cases and deaths in a country with ~69 million people. 

Hey, you are preaching to the choir. I am not a fan, nor am I a supporter of lockdown. I think the experiment in insanity, known as the worldwide economic shutdown was just that. I hate it. I am a small business owner, paying alot of rent on a commercial space in the US, and it has been a glorified storage shelter for months. And perhaps months to come. No relief of any sort. I am only discussing the reality of a ramp up. And the logistical issues, and the consequences of the shutdown.

 

Thailand has no reasons whatsoever, to continue with ANY restrictions, as this point. None. Gone, baby gone. Let it go. 

[ThailandRyan]

42 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Since you are not a boomer

So how and why do you think that I am not a Boomer.  I myself was born at the tail end of the Baby Boomer Generation in 1964, and am the last of the boomers as far as my age goes. I will turn 57 next month in June.  I have a pension just like my father but have also been wise in the way we have bought other instruments to assist in keeping our purchasing power as it was and keep even with the economy.  My pension is a defined benefit pension and as such it would take wiping out the entire US to make that dissapear.   However, I think you need to review the Boomer Generation period.  But I will put that information down for you below;  Here is the website it comes from 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby_boomers

 

The Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary defines "baby boomer" as "a person born during a period of time in which there is a marked rise in a population's birthrate", "usually considered to be in the years from 1946 to 1964".^[10]

Pew Research Center defines baby boomers as being born between 1946 and 1964.^[11] The United States Census Bureau defines baby boomers as "individuals born in the United States between mid-1946 and mid-1964."^[12][13] The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines the "post-World War II baby-boom generation" as those born between 1946 and 1964,^[14][15] as does the Federal Reserve Board which uses 1946-1964 to define baby boomers.^[16] Gallup defines baby boomers as those born from 1946 through 1964.^[17]

 

United States birth rate (births per 1,000 population per year). The segment for the years 1946 to 1964 is highlighted in red, with birth rates peaking in 1949 and dropping steadily around 1958 reaching pre-war Depression-era levels in 1963.^[18]

In the US, the generation can be segmented into two broadly defined cohorts: the "Leading-Edge Baby Boomers" are individuals born between 1946 and 1955, those who came of age during the Vietnam War era. This group represents slightly more than half of the generation, or roughly 38,002,000 people of all races. The other half of the generation, called the "Late Boomers" or "Trailing-Edge Boomers", was born between 1956 and 1964. This second cohort includes about 37,818,000 individuals

[tandor]

On 5/24/2020 at 11:16 AM, ezzra said:

Nah.. in time the Covid fiasco will be but a memory like the previous others viruses, pandemics and what'not that "shook the world" and now no one hardly remember what they were...

..and Kimmie will start letting rockets off again soon...take your mind off things too..but wash your hands, before/during and after please!

[4MyEgo]

11 hours ago, torturedsole said:

Good idea and worth it in the long run.  My Thai wife's a British citizen and much easier life for her to have two passports.

As I earned a good income back in the old country, I never received any government payments as my income was too high, e.g. over the threshold, so I never really knew what government payments were or how much they paid, suffice to say I have recently found out that because we have 4 kids and my income will be under the threshold and there is no assets test, we have hit a home run, as the will provide us with money to go towards the kids educations, rental assistance and subsidies our electricity, and when the two boys 16 finish school at 19 they will switch them onto the youth allowance if they get apprenticeships or continue studying.

 

The amount comes to around $30,000 AUS per annum or 615,000 baht per year which will pay for the rent of a 4 bedroom 2 bathroom modern house about 30 minutes out of the City.

 

Plan is now in the making for September, just got to apply for the boys visa's when they open up again ????

 

[owl sees all]

On 5/24/2020 at 11:10 AM, ThailandRyan said:

I thought you were discussing Change....you know

5 baht, 10 baht, and the satang.....

I had lots of coins in my pocket. I took them out and threw them away. Just didn't like any change.

[Odysseus123]

21 hours ago, nauseus said:

Several make quite a few bucks on TV in the southern US.

Well..Jehovah got in early and he has certainly been most persistent over time...

Edited May 25, 2020 by Odysseus123

[malibukid]

On 5/24/2020 at 11:24 AM, spidermike007 said:

No doubt about it. This world will barely be recognizable after this thing is finished. Will take some time to see how this all shakes out, but it is my opinion that the economic fallout from the inane economic shutdown, is going to be 200 times worse than Covid itself, and the recovery "ramp up" will be long and excruciating. Far longer than they say. It will not just bounce back. In the history of the world, as far as we know, there has never been a deliberate worldwide economic shutdown. It is light years beyond dumb. The "slowdown" will last well into 2021, for certain. And some industries may never come back, or will be a pale shadow of their former selves. No doubt homelessness will skyrocket in the US. Tourism in Thailand will never recover to even close to it's former levels, and that leaves millions out of work.

 

What about concerts? Will people be willing to hang out with crowds of 20,000, at a cost of hundreds of dollars for a crappy seat? Same with sports. Will people be willing to go into a stadium or an arena with 20,000 to 100,000 people close together, and pay crazy money for a seat? $400 for a seat in the nose bleed section? $1,000 for a seat to see Hamilton on Broadway? In LA, people were paying $1,000 each for a 10th row seat, to see an NBA game! Movie theaters? Cruise ships? Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay high prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. Nobody knows how the restart is going to happen, what it is going to look like, how long it is going to take, and how many millions of businesses will simply never reopen.

 

And in the end, hundreds millions worldwide could end up far poorer than they were before. And tens of millions could end up starving to death, compared to perhaps 400,000 or so total deaths worldwide from Covid. OK. The rich stay safe and financially secure. So do the government workers. And the rest of us? And those of us who are self employed, without fortunes in the bank? There are so many unanswered questions, it boggles the mind. One thing is for certain. Thailand will be feeling the effects of this for a very, very long time. So will the rest of the world. 

 

Tourism here will be decimated for the next couple of years. The people who are the target crowd for Thailand (lower and lower middle income folks) are the ones who were hurt the most. 

 

sounds like a perfect recipe for a revolution.

[malibukid]

On 5/24/2020 at 1:07 PM, KarenBravo said:

"The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room".

 

Socrates 469BC-399BC

they also have their heads stuck glued to their iPhones or their heads stuck up their you know what.  

[StreetCowboy]

On 5/24/2020 at 1:03 PM, RichardColeman said:

Most youth live in the dreamy land of Inexperience

It’s a great place. I wish I’d bought instead of renting when I lived there.

[TimBKK]

On 5/24/2020 at 12:24 AM, spidermike007 said:

“...Will the hordes just start descending on restaurants again, and pay high prices for a gourmet meal? The list goes on, and on and on. Nobody knows how the restart is going to happen, what it is going to look like, how long it is going to take, and how many millions of businesses will simply never reopen....”

Lord, let this Covid 19 madness not affect Crazy House, let it return to its former glory.  Amen.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by TimBKK

[mikemi]

On 5/24/2020 at 10:32 AM, Walker88 said:

I agree with the OP that CV-19 has changed the world...for at least a generation. I might have a different view on some things, so here goes:

 

-Fear of contagion will eventually dissipate (~2 years), but xenophobia will stick around for a lot longer than fear of those who look like you; outsiders, however, are "bad"

-Globalization is DEAD. Maximizing domestic employment and guaranteeing supply chains are the new mantras of mercantilism

-Leaders will become enamored of their new power to control, and it will take folks in the street to stop the creep toward authoritarianism

-Export-based economies are up the proverbial creek without even the arms to hold the paddle they don't have

-Labor will become increasingly obviated as business owners want to be able to produce even if "people" have to shelter in place; automation soars

-International relations will grow more tense, and a couple of brush wars are likely, maybe even a big one

-Int'l tourism will be half of what it was in 2015, and stay low for decades

-Those who invent, innovate and discover will try to capture more of the benefits, refusing and fighting tech transfer and intellectual property theft

-Per the above, countries whose strategy has been cheap labor and exports will become the new "Failed States"

-Internally, nations will battle between those who champion "help the less fortunate" vs those who say "let the weak die; they cost too much"; we're likely to become a much colder world as everyone for himself reigns supreme

-Strong nations will return to Colonial/Imperialist ways and simply take needed resources from those who can't really defend themselves

 

All in all, I don't think what's coming is pretty. Weaknesses have been exposed, and self-interest will come to rule the day.

I like this post, and in a way I agree with it as I can see your logic.

 

I do think though that there will be many positives that come from all of this. I hope it will teach people to be less reliant on governments, the supermarkets, large corps with large complex supply chains. I hope it will lead to less consumption and waste.

 

We should be buying our tomatoes off the guy next door, not having them shipped from other countries, its madness. If we cant be bothered to grow them ourselves.

 

I think many countries are in a hangover from their industrial days. It used to be necessary to pack people into houses built in rows, or on top of eachother, so they could be close to the factories. Those factories are gone now.

 

We cram people into houses into cities because its the most profitable. But its the worst thing to do. You end up with a dependent population. Bound up in mortgages and house-of-cards debt driven economies.

 

I could bang on all night.

 

Where I disagree is that I am much more optimistic and think the world will be better.

 

But you cant rely on the government, they are fools. You have to live the change yourself, to use a cliche.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by mikemi

[Know not me]

Very interesting topic. The end is nowhere in sight

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/24/2020 at 5:03 PM, RichardColeman said:

Most youth live in the dreamy land of Inexperience

Youths, IMO, know little, but think they know lots.

It takes living a while to understand how little we do know.

[19DL86]

On May 24, 2563 BE at 9:55 PM, VBF said:

I loved The Sex Pistols but couldn't resist posting this...

Johnny Rotten a few years after the Pistols......

 

 

 

It's funny and fair play to him, in a <deleted> take way.  But come on you would never see the great Joe Strummer stooping to this. Nor Terry Hall and even less chance Weller.

 

Joe Strummer stands head and shoulders above any British musician of that era.  A consumate true Rock n Roller, I miss this man and his political presence more than my own father.  Only one or two still around like him today. Billy Bragg is one more.  Never sold out, never sought the limelight.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/26/2020 at 8:05 AM, mikemi said:

Where I disagree is that I am much more optimistic and think the world will be better.

On what do you base that optimism?

Population growth alone is destroying more and more environments. Species are being exterminated at an increasing rate. Western society is far too dependent on technology. China is arming, the west is too corrupt and weak to withstand a determined enemy.

 

I see nothing to be optimistic about.

This may be the first time in history ( since perhaps the Black Death ) that the coming generations will be worse off than than their elder's.

[KarenBravo]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

On what do you base that optimism?

Population growth alone is destroying more and more environments. Species are being exterminated at an increasing rate. Western society is far too dependent on technology. China is arming, the west is too corrupt and weak to withstand a determined enemy.

 

I see nothing to be optimistic about.

This may be the first time in history ( since perhaps the Black Death ) that the coming generations will be worse off than than their elder's.

Actually, the end result of the Black Death was ultimately good for the ordinary man. Due to depopulation, there just weren't enouhg people to work their Lord's land. End result was the end of Feudalism and the start of paying money to peasants for their labour. But, I digress.

[mr mr]

On 5/25/2020 at 9:21 AM, Surasak said:

Had it not been for the 'boomer' generation, just where would you be now?????

not under a mountain of debt being passed on and literally hundreds of problems that could of already been addressed and fixed. 

[mr mr]

On 5/24/2020 at 9:12 PM, mr336 said:

Wishing for a generation to stop breathing for their mistakes is surely the adults talking.

not even willing to discuss or admit to those mistakes is surely. aw forget it. 

[Surasak]

2 hours ago, mr mr said:

not even willing to discuss or admit to those mistakes is surely. aw forget it. 

The way of the world is what it is. I would suggest you take another look and lay blame at the feet of those who lead. We all vote for those leaders, hoping for change. The pendulum swings back and forth, but the only say we have, is the tick or cross on the ballot paper. I will freely admit mistakes have been made in the past, we can all name a few obvious ones, but in many ways the general public had no say in those actions. It all comes down to, what can you do as an individual, to change the path any government chooses to follow? Other than full on civil war, we follow the leaders we voted for.

[Ayemanomad]

On 5/25/2020 at 10:49 AM, Max69xl said:

You seem to have forgotten about the common flu which has killed >300k people/year worldwide the last few years. No one is talking about it anymore, and why is that? In many countries the numbers of deaths from Covid-19 is almost the same as from the flu. So what's the difference? The Thai government doesn't have a clue about the common flu and the numbers overseas. Several restrictions are a joke compared to other countries when thinking about official cases and deaths in a country with ~69 million people. 

Precisely.

[thaibeachlovers]

20 hours ago, Surasak said:

The way of the world is what it is. I would suggest you take another look and lay blame at the feet of those who lead. We all vote for those leaders, hoping for change. The pendulum swings back and forth, but the only say we have, is the tick or cross on the ballot paper. I will freely admit mistakes have been made in the past, we can all name a few obvious ones, but in many ways the general public had no say in those actions. It all comes down to, what can you do as an individual, to change the path any government chooses to follow? Other than full on civil war, we follow the leaders we voted for.

Many tolerate the leaders we did not elect.

 

Post baby boomers have been voting for ages now, so don't blame everything on B Bs, and BTW we didn't get a say in being born.