Thai central bank says could be several years before tourist numbers normalise

 

FILE PHOTO: Thailand's Central Bank Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob speaks during an interview with Reuters at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand, October 4, 2019. REUTERS/Matthew Tostevin

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank chief said on Monday it would take several years for foreign tourist numbers to return to the 40 million a year level, with the coronavirus pandemic hitting a lucrative industry that provides a lot of jobs.

 

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects only 8 million foreign visitors this year, down 80% from a record 39.8 million last year, when foreign receipts accounted for 11.4% of GDP.

 

The central bank has forecast Southeast Asia's second-largest economy will shrink by a record 8.1%, with bottom seen in the second quarter, Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told a seminar.

 

"It will take about two years for the economy to return to the levels before COVID-19," he said. "It will be a long check mark recovery".

 

The most worrying issue is employment, particularly in the service and manufacturing sector, Veerathai said.

Recent weakness in the baht <THB=TH> has been driven by capital outflows on economic and political concerns, Veerathai said, adding the currency would remain volatile.

 

The baht traded at 31.78 per U.S. dollar at 0540 GMT, around its lowest level in more than seven weeks.

 

However, fund outflows are not a worry as the country's external positions remain strong, with current account surpluses and low foreign debt, he said, adding the baht would remain

 

He also said bad loans in the country would rise but new steps should prevent them from surging.

 

(Reporting by Kitiphong Thaichareon and Orathai Sriring; Editing by Ed Davies, Martin Petty)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-20

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

13 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thai central bank says could be several years before tourist numbers normalise

Really! First you need to let tourist in! But sorry never normalise!

15 minutes ago, webfact said:

Thailand's central bank chief said on Monday it would take several years for foreign tourist numbers to return to the 40 million a year level, with the coronavirus pandemic hitting a lucrative industry

Sorry Charlie. It is going to be a lot longer than that with the rules this country has in place to get in here. Ain't nobody gonna do that, and besides, the CV19 has taken a devastational toll on peoples pocket books and they just cannot afford to get up and travel now or in the near 1-2-3 year future.. 

Who needs farang tourists, apparently 3.6 million Thai's have booked hotels since the government provided a 40% rebate for Thai's to holiday domestically and because the "hotels" are doing so good, some hotels have upped their prices by as much as 85% for the long weekend, no doubt they will be empty and crying poor after the long weekend.

40ml was never normal, it was destructive. If covid didn't kill the tourist industry a few more years of 40ml would have. Imo

It's your gift from "Xi" now aided by "P" ????

48 minutes ago, webfact said:

The Bank of Thailand (BOT) expects only 8 million foreign visitors this year, down 80% from a record 39.8 million last year, when foreign receipts accounted for 11.4% of GDP.

So on this calculation (80% down on foreign reciepts of 11.4% GDP), the Thai economy GDP is down 9% on just tourism alone. You throw in pricey exports and non buying Thais, and that GDP is nowhere near what they are predicting. More like 20-25% decline on GDP at the minimum 

I thought by the end of the year before.

 

But now, maybe by the end of next year it will start rising.

40 million several years at best.

 

56 minutes ago, 4MyEgo said:

Who needs farang tourists, apparently 3.6 million Thai's have booked hotels since the government provided a 40% rebate for Thai's to holiday domestically and because the "hotels" are doing so good, some hotels have upped their prices by as much as 85% for the long weekend, no doubt they will be empty and crying poor after the long weekend.

How does a Thai get the rebate?   I saw mention of a web site to register but the wife says she cannot find it. 

First, you have to announce some measures to open up the country!

Then you have to actually open up the country!

Since all you ...fine people... assume, you don't have to do that anytime soon, your losses will be far greater than that and your economy will take way longer to recover!

You reap what you sow!

32 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

I thought by the end of the year before.

 

But now, maybe by the end of next year it will start rising.

40 million several years at best.

 

Your probably right.   Early in the year I was thinking Sept to Nov 2020 but with the restrictions and people's priorities in other countries Dec 2021 before the madness gets back into swing.  The magic 40 million....is anyone's guess! 

Blame your friends to the north.

Finally some truth but with all the farang hate going on and double pricing I doubt that the tourist numbers will go back to 40m a year for a long time. In any event the 40m included people like me who used to visit my daughter in the UK or make short business trips to Singapore and HK.

Stop blocking people in and outside Thailand,open travel will help.

Still people not join the world wide mass hysteria and want to travel.

Just easy lije that

Thailand simply needs to get more independent of tourism. Tourists can change their destination with a click of a mouse. Thailand cannot do the same with the infrastructure for tourism. There will be more and more competition from other countries. An expensive Baht alone could move tourists away. 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

"It will take about two years for the economy to return to the levels before COVID-19,"

That is highly optimistic, as it would mean 2 successive years of 5% growth, something the country was not able to achieve even before the pandemic.

 

On top of that, getting any growth in 2021 would assume that tourism would be back to its former level for the whole year, which will not happen.

 

Much more likely, if the 8% GDP fall is confirmed, is that it will take more than 5 years to get back to 2019 levels.

 

Nothing special here since almost all the countries are in the same boat.

 

The world is facing a lost decade, and it's gonna be painful, not just for Thailand.

First of all the 40 million was a inflated number I'll tell you why.  Say a tourist flies from the UK to Bangkok he is counted as one tourist. Then he checks into a hotel in Pattaya he is counted as one tourist. Then he flies to Vietnam for a week then flies to Phuket he is counted as another tourist. Then he flies to Singapore for a week and then flies to Bangkok HR again is counted as one more tourists do this one person I'd counted as 3 or 4 tourists do thats how Tat gets the fourth million 

With this negative attitude about Thailand tourist, it will never recover.  the government should be positive. How many people die this year on the crazy Roads??? 

Thailand did very well with controlling the virus.  ????

Have you spoken to the TAT about your statement, I'm sure you are right but I don't think you and the TAT are on the same page.

Perhaps after discovering the delights of staycations in their own countries, many farangs will no longer want to visit foreign lands for a holiday?

Thailand never had 40 million tourists. That number is 39.8 million ARRIVALS.  Big difference. TAT preferes to use arrivals in their calculations since it is much, much bigger than actual tourists, which TAT has absolutely no way of knowing that number nor how much they spend - domestic of foreigner.

42 minutes ago, barryofthailand said:

First of all the 40 million was a inflated number I'll tell you why.  Say a tourist flies from the UK to Bangkok he is counted as one tourist. Then he checks into a hotel in Pattaya he is counted as one tourist. Then he flies to Vietnam for a week then flies to Phuket he is counted as another tourist. Then he flies to Singapore for a week and then flies to Bangkok HR again is counted as one more tourists do this one person I'd counted as 3 or 4 tourists do thats how Tat gets the fourth million 

And what about the thousands of Malaysians who cross the border every week end to come enjoy the Thai nightlife? 

 

Each of them is counted about 50 times per year as a tourist. 

Destinations like Pattaya, Phuket, samui, Hua Hin and many many more have been over developed into "Tourist Factories", where the Tourists cash cows can get milked.  Maybe the Chinese and Indians are used to that from home, but most of the western quality tourists does not like it at all and will simply stay away. Thailand should be happy with 15-20 Million tourists and keep it at that level or below. 

2 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Sorry Charlie. It is going to be a lot longer than that with the rules this country has in place to get in here. Ain't nobody gonna do that, and besides, the CV19 has taken a devastational toll on peoples pocket books and they just cannot afford to get up and travel now or in the near 1-2-3 year future.. 

Speak for yourself.  I can travel now but not with the stupid quarantine rules. I could easily get my wife to pick me up in bangkok then go straight to her home and self quarantine.  What is the difference apart from me not paying nearly 2000 quid for a stupid hote

7 minutes ago, dougiemac52 said:

Speak for yourself.  I can travel now but not with the stupid quarantine rules. I could easily get my wife to pick me up in bangkok then go straight to her home and self quarantine.  What is the difference apart from me not paying nearly 2000 quid for a stupid hote

The so-called state quarantine is not stupid. 

 

It has prevented a resurgence of the virus inside Thailand, with dozens of quarantined Thais being tested positive and treated accordingly. 

 

If Thai people accept the quarantine, for their own good and the good of their country, foreigners would be wise to do the same. 

 

Just a handful of visitors have escaped quarantine, notably the Egyptian soldiers and the Sudanese girl, and this has already caused a disaster. 

 

No need for more... 

5 minutes ago, dougiemac52 said:

Speak for yourself.  I can travel now but not with the stupid quarantine rules. I could easily get my wife to pick me up in bangkok then go straight to her home and self quarantine.  What is the difference apart from me not paying nearly 2000 quid for a stupid hote

You just repeated basically what I said. Yeah I have money too, but most do not have enough with the numbers they are looking at and for the hoops and cost they are making someone who wants to come here spend.

8 minutes ago, dougiemac52 said:

Speak for yourself.  I can travel now but not with the stupid quarantine rules. I could easily get my wife to pick me up in bangkok then go straight to her home and self quarantine.  What is the difference apart from me not paying nearly 2000 quid for a stupid hote

What visa do you have ? 

Maybe better wait for new Governor to be appointed as looks very optimistic as so much fake news emanating from Thai officials.

2 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Who needs farang tourists, apparently 3.6 million Thai's have booked hotels since the government provided a 40% rebate for Thai's to holiday domestically and because the "hotels" are doing so good, some hotels have upped their prices by as much as 85% for the long weekend, no doubt they will be empty and crying poor after the long weekend.

Once again, the natural instinct is to introduce specific pricing incentives for thais. 

11% is the official figure but the unofficial figure is 20-30 %.

 

A lot of tourists come to Thailand for the 'massage' services which are only partially reported to the government. Special services are not reported for income tax purpose.

 

That's why you see a lot of massage parlors being closed and ripoff shops selling at exorbitant tourist prices closed too.