Pattaya: Grim picture for future of resort as post pandemic optimism dries up

[chrisandsu]

6 hours ago, Huckenfell said:

So in your wisdom, what do you suggest should be done.

In what aspect ? I’m not sure what choice Thailand has . The rest of the world has closed shop it’s not like they can just open up is it ?

[scammed]

19 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

It was in decline fella, Pattaya has been struggling for years now. Don't believe the official numbers they are very misleading.... 

your hypothesis is falsified with the traffic jam prior to covid imo. i agree the fun factor was down and prices up on gogos,

but pattaya wasnt that crowded before

[GAZZPA]

1 minute ago, scammed said:

yes for me personally as i do not need a job for income,

but i also got many thai friends that are really struggling now,

and for the first time in 15 years, i now meet random begging requests the moment i leave the hotel building

the risk is the increase in crime. Local, desperate people will see you have money from your pension and can do desperate things. Fact is poverty brings increases in crime, be careful from here on in..

[GAZZPA]

2 minutes ago, scammed said:

your hypothesis is falsified with the traffic jam prior to covid imo. i agree the fun factor was down and prices up on gogos,

but pattaya wasnt that crowded before

Whatever, I made my living there and I saw the economic decline over 6 years, think what you like.

[SolarJim]

Mass tourism as we knew it is over.  All the quick built businesses catering to foreigners was a bad gamble from the beginning, and then the huge push to turn dirty old Pattaya into a 'World Class Family Destination' ruined what was a vibrant (though unsavory to the authorities) tourist scene.  The rest of the environmental disaster that followed at all the best spots from mass tourism is a travesty, fed by simple greed from land owners, hotel chains, airlines, tour groups, and on and on.  The Gulf of Thailand is a toilet, over fished, and under nourished. The upshot is that this could actually be good for Thailand in the near future and the Long Run if they wake the heck up, redirect their labor force to more valuable and important vocations, and start working to preserve the wonderful gifts that nature has bestowed upon this fortunate country.  Put the tourist workers back to work at the farms, building sustainable infrastructure, schools and hospitals. Make Thailand a world class retirement destination, develop plant based pharmaceuticals, raise minimum wages, make the schools better. There's enough money if the elites holding the purse strings can see past their noses.  Yes, I'm rambling, but I love this country so much, and it has so much potential.

[fishtank]

A business model of providing sex for foreigners and nothing else was always doomed.

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by fishtank

[Caldera]

It is pretty grim alright. Now that the long weekend is over (that was supposedly busy, I wasn't here), many parts give the appearance of a ghost town again. Not sure what they can do about it, with only domestic tourists around.

[teacherclaire]

These days you can see plenty of nice cars with Chonburi and Bangkok license plates with people who are not visiting their relatives in Isaan.

 

Many of them are looking for new business opportunities, but there aren't any. At least not visible for foreigners.

 

Even a lot of restaurant owners in Isaan had to close their doors because of the lockdown.

 

Other places then opened up, and no more customers came back when reopened.

 

How many of these expensive cars are owned by banks and will soon have to be given back? 

 

I'm afraid that a lot more will follow and what we see now is only the tip of the iceberg.

 

People here are well known for destroying their businesses. One opens a coffee shop; a month later, somebody else does the same on the other side.

 

 

And they act like they wouldn't understand that they kill each other's business by doing so. Thank you, China. 

 

    

 

  

 

 

 

    

[bert bloggs]

2 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

I have never known a generation to not say that. All say "the best days are gone", sorry fella but it's just nostalgia. Todays world is in a mess due to COVID but it will pass and the modern world is far better then the 60's and 70's for countless reasons.

i am not talking about "todays world" read again ,i was talking about the future, ok?

[moontang]

I did one night in Patts and two in Jomtien a few weeks ago.  I found it difficult to get some decent Thai food.  Now, I'm sure a few can asure me that they and their "partner" went out for hamburgers and craft beer last night and it was just like Chicago (prices, anyways), but I was actually looking for basic Thai food..just wasn't there..and the homeless/beggar problems are getting worse by the day, as the lack of money aggravates the drug and alcohol problems many of them have.  Similar problems at my local pier..you become a marked person simply by not being a beggar...

Edited September 8, 2020 by moontang

[rott]

10 hours ago, Oldie said:

The malls are still open. You also can sit on the beach. Is there anything else that motivates you to come here? 

I feel he is eager to getteth his legge over and imbibe mead. 

The answer is aye, plenty to enjoy. 

[aussienam]

Several thousands of us who are retirees locked out of Thailand stranded abroad, being completely ignored by everyone in Thai government, when we normally spend up to 365 days a year in Thailand with our foreign sourced incomes.  

Whilst we are not going to solve all the economic woes, we are nonetheless the ones who help prop up the quieter bars, laundromats, hairdressers, convenience stores, restaurants, food carts, shopping centers, etc. We are there in high and low seasons.  

But the incredibly slow re-entry intake, just one port of entry, not enough ASQ approved facilities, barring most of us on retirement visas - now 6 months into this debacle, is adding to complete devastation of places like Pattaya and the rest of Thailand that have relied/part relied on the expat community. 

I am in a couple of Facebook Groups for stranded expats.  We are suffering terribly, financially many of us badly affected, double rents, ongoing bills, still supporting loved ones, living out of a suitcase intended for just a few weeks.  It is now beyond ridiculous.  The constant vacillating of government leaders' decisions and/or plans means we cannot plan ahead.  We are in a state of limbo and anxiety. 

To the expats who are still in Thailand unaffected, yes the quieter environment and having the financial advantage, may appeal to some, who would like it to remain like this.  The poor Thais going broke with the prospect of <deleted>tier lives, I don't think they're smiling.  

The longer this drags on the more expats will pull the pin on Thailand too as the stranded situation is untenable.  It will then be a case of getting back to Thailand just to get their 800,000 baht deposits back and transferred out.  

[GAZZPA]

16 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

i am not talking about "todays world" read again ,i was talking about the future, ok?

It reads like you think the world is worse today due to 7 billion population, and to get worse with increasing population by 2050, what did I miss? The 60's and 70's had their good points like all other decades, many bad points as well. I think population increase and sustainable sources is going to be a challenge for sure but we will adapt. I am more optimistic about the future, so you think you will be better off out of it, obviously if your heyday was 60's and 70's your wish will be granted and you won't be around to be proved wrong.. We can agree to differ, enjoy your evening.

[rott]

6 hours ago, robbioff said:

Yes, but can you sit on the beach with a beer? 

Many Thai people were last Sunday. 

[bert bloggs]

1 minute ago, GAZZPA said:

It reads like you think the world is worse today due to 7 billion population, and to get worse with increasing population by 2050, what did I miss? The 60's and 70's had their good points like all other decades, many bad points as well. I think population increase and sustainable sources is going to be a challenge for sure but we will adapt. I am more optimistic about the future, so you think you will be better off out of it, obviously if your heyday was 60's and 70's your wish will be granted and you won't be around to be proved wrong.. We can agree to differ, enjoy your evening.

whatever you say ,but you have it wrong ,i have no problem with today ,i am talking about the future ,sorry if you cannot understand

[GAZZPA]

8 minutes ago, aussienam said:

Several thousands of us who are retirees locked out of Thailand stranded abroad, being completely ignored by everyone in Thai government, when we normally spend up to 365 days a year in Thailand with our foreign sourced incomes.  

Whilst we are not going to solve all the economic woes, we are nonetheless the ones who help prop up the quieter bars, laundromats, hairdressers, convenience stores, restaurants, food carts, shopping centers, etc. We are there in high and low seasons.  

But the incredibly slow re-entry intake, just one port of entry, not enough ASQ approved facilities, barring most of us on retirement visas - now 6 months into this debacle, is adding to complete devastation of places like Pattaya and the rest of Thailand that have relied/part relied on the expat community. 

I am in a couple of Facebook Groups for stranded expats.  We are suffering terribly, financially many of us badly affected, double rents, ongoing bills, still supporting loved ones, living out of a suitcase intended for just a few weeks.  It is now beyond ridiculous.  The constant vacillating of government leaders' decisions and/or plans means we cannot plan ahead.  We are in a state of limbo and anxiety. 

To the expats who are still in Thailand unaffected, yes the quieter environment and having the financial advantage, may appeal to some, who would like it to remain like this.  The poor Thais going broke with the prospect of <deleted>tier lives, I don't think they're smiling.  

The longer this drags on the more expats will pull the pin on Thailand too as the stranded situation is untenable.  It will then be a case of getting back to Thailand just to get their 800,000 baht deposits back and transferred out.  

It is not a good situation and i really feel for you. My situation is different but I have not seen my wife and son for 1 year and 5 months now, i have missed my son's first 2 birthdays. This will come to an end one way or another, might not be the desired first choice outcome but it will end, enjoy your evening fella, you are not alone.

[onthedarkside]

Bickering posts removed... Serenity is a virtue....

[mr mr]

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

[Susco]

2 minutes ago, mr mr said:

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

I assume you don't like reality TV threads

[DrTuner]

3 minutes ago, mr mr said:

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

What I'm really wondering about is where is JSixPack? Did the Protector of Pattaya leave this realm?

[moontang]

41 minutes ago, rott said:

Many Thai people were last Sunday. 

And if you are careful; you can get fresh beers at about one in three 7-11s.

[thaigrifter]

7 hours ago, Huckenfell said:

 

So wrong!  you obviously have not the slightest idea of the pleasure and love which you have missed through your decision not to have children. A big and selfish mistake indeed.

 

How do you know that he made "a big and selfish mistake"? He may have lived a great life without having children. We all make choices in life, and just because he made a different choice to you regarding children, that doesn't mean that you were right, and he was wrong. 

[eeworldwide]

11 hours ago, Walker88 said:

If I was the Economics or Finance Minister of Thailand I would have trouble sleeping at night.

 

In my mind would be graphs of the rise in debt---corporate and household---over the last ten years, bank exposure, and the likelihood that asset prices (otherwise known as collateral for all those bank loans) are under pressure.

 

In Bangkok one can see billboards advertising 50% price cuts on under-construction condos by major developers. Not good. Real estate prices are set on the margin, which means prices are set by the weakest hands, which is to say those with the most leverage. Those with less leverage (if these aren't unicorns) are still going to feel it, because real estate is a wasting asset. Even if one is debt free, there are still property taxes and maintenance costs, so a building with no tenant or one in arrears still has a cash outflow.

 

Leveraged owners with no tenants (businesses gone bust) will be turning the keys over to banks, and banks are not going to want to own a huge portfolio of real estate. They will want to sell it.

 

The govt had introduced debt amnesty, but that has expired. The debt didn't go away, of course, but borrowers were allowed to skip payments and banks did not have to account for the lack of incoming debt servicing. Yesterday an official said it might be time to put this debt moratorium back on, which is to say, "Let's kick the can down the road again, because there is no other way to deal with it".

 

I have seen some commentary that 'this isn't as bad as 1997'. I question that, as it is not only an entirely different problem, it is also worldwide, not just regional like 1997. Yes, there are likely to be bargains galore in property, but timing will be critical. Buying something down 50% looks good until its price is down 75%.

 

Thailand does have a decent pile of foreign reserves. I suspect it is going to have to go to that well, and soon, if it insists on maintaining the same level of vigilance against the virus by keeping the borders closed. Absent some return to normalcy, the banking system's capital cushion is going to be under pressure in the next few months as more businesses fail and leveraged borrowers---even homeowners who put zero down on that new car---feel the pain of economic decline. Banks are increasingly likely to need some sort of bailout. Accounting rules can be changed, by mathematics is the Sword of Damocles that cannot be denied.

 

This article is about Pattaya, because the pain hits it first and hardest owing to its dependence on foreign tourism. The wider Thai economy is hardly any more immune to Covid-driven decline. Some truly difficult decisions are coming.

Thank you!

 

Probably the most lucid and well informed/educated response I've ever read on this forum in 17 years.

[GAZZPA]

15 minutes ago, mr mr said:

gawd not another pattaya is dead thread..........

when do you think people think that there might be something in it?

 

[djuiiy]

53 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

It is not a good situation and i really feel for you.

it was the 1st negative post I've red from an expat 'stuck' in thailand. All those rock bottom market prices lower than for decades, and availability of fresher 'resources' not usually available for older expats. All the other expats are saying now is the best time in pattaya they've ever known.

Edited September 8, 2020 by djuiiy

[GAZZPA]

6 minutes ago, djuiiy said:

it was the 1st negative post I've red from an expat 'stuck' in thailand. All those rock bottom market prices lower than for decades, and availability of fresher 'resources' not usually available for older expats. All the other expats are saying now is the best time in pattaya they've ever known.

I think my friend you will find there are many people being seperated from their families and loved ones right now, great for you but have a heart fella..

[djuiiy]

3 minutes ago, GAZZPA said:

I think my friend you will find there are many people being seperated from their families and loved ones right now, great for you but have a heart fella..

eh? I don't think u were following this thread...

1. i wasn't talking about people who are seperated in different countries, i was talking about expats based in pattaya.
2. me? no its not great for me at all. I wanted to get out my expensive rented room in england, put all my stuff in storage and spend the summer and maybe the autumn in thailand and vietnam. Never had chance to live abroad other than short holidays so was really excited about it. Of course, by sod's law, the people who control the world economy saw i was about to have the best 6 months of my life so they shut down international travel to the most severe extent in 75 years. It was my fault getting my hopes up that caused the covid travesty.

[Nichada Nick]

I have lived, worked, married, and recently retired in Thailand, after arriving in Hua Hin in 1990, and since then have listened to many whispered warnings from insiders within various influential groups claiming that eventually Pattaya would be "cleaned up", with all undesirables exported and deported back to their own countries so that the city could be converted into a clean, sanitized and safe weekend playground for Thais only. I never really paid much attention to these "Chinese whispers" and yet here we are are witnessing the self destruction of a city that once employed tens of thousands of decent, hardworking Thais, whose families are now becoming destitute and desperate. What a pity, what a shame, they deserve better.       

[impulse]

5 hours ago, GAZZPA said:

Nearly all trade is reliant in tourism and the business was declining significantly for 5 or 6 years before I got out of there. Many of my friends and colleagues have done the same, there was no money to be made anymore. So not being argumentative but your holiday experience is not the same as living and working there and it has been on the slide for a long time, it absolutely is not growing year on year, quite the reverse.

 

But is that because there's been a decline in tourists, or because it's been overbuilt, with so much cut throat competition that nobody can make money?

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by blackcab
Please do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes or wording

[newnative]

1 hour ago, GAZZPA said:

Well I lived and worked there for 7 years, before that regular visits on business for 10 years. I also had a business in Pattaya and know many who also own there own business. Nearly all trade is reliant in tourism and the business was declining significantly for 5 or 6 years before I got out of there. Many of my friends and colleagues have done the same, there was no money to be made anymore. So not being argumentative but your holiday experience is not the same as living and working there and it has been on the slide for a long time, it absolutely is not growing year on year, quite the reverse.

   Yes, some western tourism businesses, which you likely had, were suffering pre-covid in Pattaya.  Possibly more a case of too many new western businesses opening to be supported by the number of western tourists.  A western tourist business failing, however, does not mean that Pattaya was failing pre-covid.  It certainly was not.  One western business closing was replaced by numerous new businesses catering to all the new Asian tourists, including domestic Thais.  I think if you go back to your post and insert the word 'western' in front of every use of the word 'business' you'll get a more accurate take on things.  

   Terminal 21 opening was a big draw for northern Pattaya, attracting lots of the new tourists to that area, Wongamat, and Naklua. Large, new hotels such as Mytt, Brighton, Grande Centre Point, Siam@Siam, and Grand Palazzo, along with new, smaller boutique hotels such as LK Emerald Beach, opened to help Amari, Dusit, Holiday Inn and the many others handle all the new tourists wanting to be in that area.  Some businesses in now less popular areas likely may have suffered--again, that does not mean Pattaya was suffering.  It's natural for areas of any city to gain and lose popularity as demographics change; just as it's natural for some businesses to close and others to open.