The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Maxi101]

... somehow I miss ThaiGoon

[bingobongo]

how nice, first the boys in green trample over civil rights, and now they want to interfere with monetary policy.....well done junta, well done

Thailand's military-backed govt urges central bank to cut rates amid rising baht

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...84-5fe630d5406e

[LaoPo]

how nice, first the boys in green trample over civil rights, and now they want to interfere with monetary policy.....well done junta, well done

Thailand's military-backed govt urges central bank to cut rates amid rising baht

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/ar...84-5fe630d5406e

.

Well, it says " Thailand's military-backed govt urges bank [bOT] to cut rates...."

But nevertheless, it shows the hands of the BOT people are tightened with ropes, as I expressed before.

Unlike most democratic Central Banks, the BOT is not free to act, in fact they are TOLD what to do....

LaoPo

[soundman]

Unlike most democratic Central Banks, the BOT is not free to act, in fact they are TOLD what to do....

LaoPo

And what are the chances of the soldiers listening to the "intelligience reports" from the countries top economists? Since they (the economists) have never worn green, & the generals don't have much hands on experience with finance, they wouldn't know good advice if they tripped over it & will go with whatever cockamaymee scheme is most appealing for short term results. Forget about a medium to long term outlook.

Soundman.

[lazeeboy]

Unlike most democratic Central Banks, the BOT is not free to act, in fact they are TOLD what to do....

LaoPo

And what are the chances of the soldiers listening to the "intelligience reports" from the countries top economists? Since they (the economists) have never worn green, & the generals don't have much hands on experience with finance, they wouldn't know good advice if they tripped over it & will go with whatever cockamaymee scheme is most appealing for short term results. Forget about a medium to long term outlook.

Soundman.

maybe they should consult taksin,let it be known what they've done and when it falls flat they have there scape goat

[highdiver]

for the benfit of those mebers who are not working or investing but rather have a lot of free time to express views about economy,

its nice to see that those who are realy incharge and are the ones that run real companies have a diferet view.

SET News No.123/2007

July 13, 2007

Thai bourse surveys CEO's on current and future business outlook

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), in conjunction with Thai Listed

Companies Association (TLCA) and Money Channel, has surveyed listed firms'

CEO's about current and future factors and trends affecting their businesses.

The results of the study, called the Thailand Quarterly Economic Outlook

Survey 2007, will be used to construct company performance and

investment-related indicators.

"This latest undertaking further illustrates a collaborative approach to

transforming the Thai stock market into an attractive integrated regional

market- a major goal of SET's three-year strategic plan.

"Because the research is based on the insights of top-level executives in a

range of industries, the results are highly relevant to business and

investment, and accurately reflect overall economic and capital market

trends," SET President Ms. Patareeya Benjapolchai said.

As part of its policy of keeping investors fully informed, SET will ensure the

widest possible distribution of this information. The Exchange will use the

results in those of its projects which support the development of listed

firms, e.g. corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate governance

(CG).

A variety of parties will benefit from the study. While the outcomes may

strengthen listed companies strategically and competitively, research analysts

can employ the findings in their investigations. This research will also

contribute to the formulation of capital market and related policy.

SET Research Institute (SRI) will undertake an analysis of the survey data to

compare the responses of individual participating listed firms against their

respective industries and overall listed firms.

By specifying the views of CEO's on current economic and political trends, the

study provides a partial insight into the overall Thai economic and political

situation, SRI Advisor Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool said.

Thailand Quarterly Economic Outlook Survey 2007 found that, in 2007, 60% of

executives expected to see 3.5% GDP growth or more, and 70% were confident

that 2008 will be better than 2007 for investment expansion. Nearly 70% of

respondents believed investment will increase over the next 12 months, while

30% thought it would remain steady.

"Areas covered by the survey included the economy, business expansion,

investment, capital-raising, human resource demands, operational issues,

business outlook, competitiveness, CG, CSR and the effects of external factors

-such as global economic and political conditions, interest rates, exchange

rates and oil prices.

"The study's respondents were the chief executives of 110 public companies

responsible for about 50% of Thailand's total financial market capitalization.

Generally speaking, they were confident about the current economic outlook,"

TLCA President Ms. Pensri Suteerasarn said.

SRI will distribute the research results to public and private bodies for

further analysis, and to contribute to policy-formulation on issues such as

comparative advantage and business opportunities.

Other dissemination points will be the Money Channel, TLCA's website

www.lca.or.th, and SET's website www.set.or.th

For more information about the study, please visit www.lca.or.th and

www.set.or.th

i am sorry to spoil the "Dooms day" posts andf the fear mongering contributions. specialy by those who can afford any more to buy a condo since they made a mistake and sold it last year before the big increase.

[bingobongo]

hello highdiver, how is your swim against the current? exhausted yet?

anyway, even though highdiver lives in an alternate reality, it appears that others with more impact are worried about the economy (note the title highdiver)

Baht crisis: Thailand confronts industrial sector reform

Given the impact of the baht appreciation regarding employment as well as industrial operations, the Cabinet will also involve the Labour Minister in the economic committee.

Mr. Kosit said the government is not complacent and it is trying its best to find effective measures to deal with the currency crisis.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30560

[soundman]

i am sorry to spoil the "Dooms day" posts andf the fear mongering contributions. specialy by those who can afford any more to buy a condo since they made a mistake and sold it last year before the big increase.

I am sorry highdiver, but I am one of those business owners.

Whilst working within my industry, I am talking up future outlooks & prospects on a daily basis with my customers, staff & suppliers. But most of this talk is absolute hot air to try and stimulate sales & better buying positions.

I have a neutral to slightly negative outlook as far as any real growth is concerned in the short to medium term.

However, if I had been the one involved in the poll, of course I'de be talking it up. Therefore, I place little stock in these polls & interviews of "key" people. They do not reflect what is actually happening.

Do you operate a business in Thailand where the buck stops with you?

Soundman.

[Prakanong]

Oh its only 3.5% these guys are predicting is it - that less than the 4-4.5% Govt predictions a little while ago.

What is it Thailand needs just to basically stand still and employ all those coming onto the market - over 5% I think it might be - anyone?

Singapore recently posted a prediction of over 8% and Vietnam over 10%

3.5% growth for a developing country is not much!

[highdiver]

hello highdiver, how is your swim against the current? exhausted yet?

anyway, even though highdiver lives in an alternate reality, it appears that others with more impact are worried about the economy (note the title highdiver)

Baht crisis: Thailand confronts industrial sector reform

Given the impact of the baht appreciation regarding employment as well as industrial operations, the Cabinet will also involve the Labour Minister in the economic committee.

Mr. Kosit said the government is not complacent and it is trying its best to find effective measures to deal with the currency crisis.

http://etna.mcot.net/query.php?nid=30560

alternative reality

I must have hit a soft spot about that condo.

reality realy sucks when you are on the loosing end doesnt it??

for the past 4 months you have consistantly telling us that thailand is going down and its in a crisis.

you constantly find every anti thai and every anti govermant posting telling us how things are reraly bad.

but it seems the facts contridict you.

stock market is up

investors are pouring in.

real estate .. close to your heart (where you tried pulling the same dooms day predictions, only to be ridiculed by those who actually know the market).. is doing great. and now even the big international firms are coming in.

baht is stronger... but exports are higher.

no matter what you say things get better all the time. except fot you

it seems the only one in crisis is you.

never mind... in about 5 years when the prices level off you will be able to come into the game again.

[highdiver]

i am sorry to spoil the "Dooms day" posts andf the fear mongering contributions. specialy by those who can afford any more to buy a condo since they made a mistake and sold it last year before the big increase.

I am sorry highdiver, but I am one of those business owners.

Whilst working within my industry, I am talking up future outlooks & prospects on a daily basis with my customers, staff & suppliers. But most of this talk is absolute hot air to try and stimulate sales & better buying positions.

I have a neutral to slightly negative outlook as far as any real growth is concerned in the short to medium term.

However, if I had been the one involved in the poll, of course I'de be talking it up. Therefore, I place little stock in these polls & interviews of "key" people. They do not reflect what is actually happening.

Do you operate a business in Thailand where the buck stops with you?

Soundman.

I agree with you. pols and "key people" calling on" or "making statements" is usualy head line making.

I do own a few business in thailand and i invested in some large projects through the BOI.

in some of the buisneses there is a slow down and others are doing better so all in all I would say that things are looking good.

[soundman]

I agree with you. pols and "key people" calling on" or "making statements" is usualy head line making.

I do own a few business in thailand and i invested in some large projects through the BOI.

in some of the buisneses there is a slow down and others are doing better so all in all I would say that things are looking good.

Interested. Which industries?

I am in Profesional Audio. One of the first that feels the pinch of an economic downturn. Bad this year. Wife is in civil construction. Very hard this year.

Soundman.

[chinthee]

I agree with you. pols and "key people" calling on" or "making statements" is usualy head line making.

I do own a few business in thailand and i invested in some large projects through the BOI.

in some of the buisneses there is a slow down and others are doing better so all in all I would say that things are looking good.

Interested. Which industries?

I am in Profesional Audio. One of the first that feels the pinch of an economic downturn. Bad this year. Wife is in civil construction. Very hard this year.

Soundman.

Hey Soundman, if things get tough, I'd be interested in a discounted set of NAD T770 digital decoder with 70-watt amps and Burr-Brown DACs.

[soundman]

Hey Soundman, if things get tough, I'd be interested in a discounted set of NAD T770 digital decoder with 70-watt amps and Burr-Brown DACs.

Professional Audio Chinthee, not well marketed, under performing, some guy that looks like a sound technician with a beard & serious demeanor told me it was the ant pants home HiFi. Sure NAD is good, even sounds OK, but not much bang for buck.

Equipment where one loudspeaker can cost more than a car and amplification for concert systems requires more power than your average moo bahn! Bring it on! That's my business & passion.

Try Fortune Rachada! Heaps of overpriced, over-rated equipment there for the top end buffs!

Cheers,

Soundman.

[chinthee]

Hey Soundman, if things get tough, I'd be interested in a discounted set of NAD T770 digital decoder with 70-watt amps and Burr-Brown DACs.

Professional Audio Chinthee, not well marketed, under performing, some guy that looks like a sound technician with a beard & serious demeanor told me it was the ant pants home HiFi. Sure NAD is good, even sounds OK, but not much bang for buck.

Equipment where one loudspeaker can cost more than a car and amplification for concert systems requires more power than your average moo bahn! Bring it on! That's my business & passion.

Try Fortune Rachada! Heaps of overpriced, over-rated equipment there for the top end buffs!

Cheers,

Soundman.

Yeah, I can tell you know your sh!t. I'm an amateur and it shows.

[soundman]

Yeah, I can tell you know your sh!t. I'm an amateur and it shows.

If you want to talk about the reasons why none of the larger players are going for 192k technology in an underperforming $5 chip we'll grab a beer one day! A good debate....

Since this is not specific to making a crisis of economy in Thailand.....

Lets talk about how well the current junta are manging the $.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[VegasVic]

... somehow I miss ThaiGoon

I know what you mean he was a funny guy, but fear not because Palm and highdiver (the Laurel and Hardy of thaivisa) still seem to be around and they are always good for a laugh!

[LaoPo]

[Mobile Phone] Shin chief warns of sagging sales

Due to sluggish economy, cell phone purchases will likely decrease

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

By Srisamorn Phoosuphanusorn

The head of Shin Corporation has expressed fears that shrinking personal consumption resulting from the economic slowdown will inevitably affect the local cellular market if the situation drags on over the next 12 months.

Somprasong Boonyachai, the chief executive of Shin Corp and executive chairman of its mobile flagship, Advanced Info Service, said that although mobile phones were not considered an essential product, the segment might be hit even harder than most if the country's economy worsens.

"Thailand's economic situation is now precarious. Even though mobile phones are not a primary product, the country's prolonged economic slump would eventually have an adverse impact on AIS," Mr Somprasong said in an interview.

Earlier, AIS said the ongoing political uncertainty would force it to scale down investment plans and suspend all business activities that could be perceived as breaching contracts and the Telecom Business Law.

The country's largest cellular operator had set aside a standby investment budget of 20 billion baht this year to meet any emergency needs including network expansion.

AIS registered 1.57 million net new subscribers in the first quarter, bringing its total to 21.1 million customers as of March 31. In comparison, the company recorded 225,700 net new users in the same period a year earlier.

Defying sluggish economic growth, the entire industry recorded 3.5 million net new subscribers in the first three months of 2007. Second-ranked DTAC signed up 1.46 million, while third-ranked True Move enlisted 500,000 new customers.

However, Somchai Lertsutiwong, AIS's executive vice-president for marketing, contends that Thailand's mobile market this year has been registering artificial growth performance that did not truly represent the number of active subscribers and the overall industry.

He said the growth was unsustainable and due mainly to an aggressive push by operators to give SIM cards away.

In any case, Mr Somchai said, AIS intended to maintain its share at around 50% of the mobile market to achieve sustainable growth, but he declined to give his company's sales forecast.

DTAC has targeted nine million new customers this year.

Date Posted: 7/17/2007

Source: AsiaMedia

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

i am sorry to spoil the "Dooms day" posts andf the fear mongering contributions. specialy by those who can afford any more to buy a condo since they made a mistake and sold it last year before the big increase.

I am sorry highdiver, but I am one of those business owners.

Whilst working within my industry, I am talking up future outlooks & prospects on a daily basis with my customers, staff & suppliers. But most of this talk is absolute hot air to try and stimulate sales & better buying positions.

I have a neutral to slightly negative outlook as far as any real growth is concerned in the short to medium term.

However, if I had been the one involved in the poll, of course I'de be talking it up. Therefore, I place little stock in these polls & interviews of "key" people. They do not reflect what is actually happening.

Do you operate a business in Thailand where the buck stops with you?

Soundman.

Thanks for your honesty and forthrightness Soundman! Highdiver accepted his "mission impossible" orders some time ago and spends his days scouring the media and the web to try and find anything that could possibly be construed as or put a positive spin on the Thai economy. His mission is getting increasingly difficult these days and I do admire his pluck, but sooner or later even highdiver will have to face the facts about the Thai economy, just as many of the senior government officials in BKK have done so recently. Should the baht do an abrupt about face then I think things could improve rapidly, however currently the baht is still heading in the wrong direction for any economic properity for Thailand.

[highdiver]

i am sorry to spoil the "Dooms day" posts andf the fear mongering contributions. specialy by those who can afford any more to buy a condo since they made a mistake and sold it last year before the big increase.

I am sorry highdiver, but I am one of those business owners.

Whilst working within my industry, I am talking up future outlooks & prospects on a daily basis with my customers, staff & suppliers. But most of this talk is absolute hot air to try and stimulate sales & better buying positions.

I have a neutral to slightly negative outlook as far as any real growth is concerned in the short to medium term.

However, if I had been the one involved in the poll, of course I'de be talking it up. Therefore, I place little stock in these polls & interviews of "key" people. They do not reflect what is actually happening.

Do you operate a business in Thailand where the buck stops with you?

Soundman.

Thanks for your honesty and forthrightness Soundman! Highdiver accepted his "mission impossible" orders some time ago and spends his days scouring the media and the web to try and find anything that could possibly be construed as or put a positive spin on the Thai economy. His mission is getting increasingly difficult these days and I do admire his pluck, but sooner or later even highdiver will have to face the facts about the Thai economy, just as many of the senior government officials in BKK have done so recently. Should the baht do an abrupt about face then I think things could improve rapidly, however currently the baht is still heading in the wrong direction for any economic properity for Thailand.

Dearst Vegas.

is the aircon nopt working in Nevada today??

Thanks for your on-topic and concise feedback. It really helped me turn the corner on this post .” And: “I’m in such awe of your gargantuan intellect.” And: “Oh yeah, you’re the coolest.

I totally get off on your postings regarding how great the american USA econmy is doing...

on the contrary to many of our "dooms day" brigade posters that seem to be posting anti thai anti asian and general anti everyhting on every thread in TV.(guess they have a lot of spare time, and they just dont have anything else to do) I do have other buisness to attend to. maybe thats why I see it diferently. there s a diference between "talking" about buisness and actually doing it.

the fact that some parts of the thai economy are not doing well does not say "crisis". i did post on several ocasions that there is a slow down in some sectors and i did state my fears concerning the impact of non controled hedge funds and the US housing and debt bubble or the chineese dependcy.

the fact that bored farrangs... some that dont even live in thailand post headlines as to imply that there is a crisis does not make it a crisis .

[jumnien]

All I know is what I see out the window.

This morning is glorious, the birds singing and the geckos whistling. They are aerating the greens with imported equipment they never had years ago. The "local economy" seems to be in the non-crises category at this morning. Reporting live from mid-fairway hole 10, have a good day. By the way, yesterday didn't seem to crisis oriented either. The day before though, I had more time and made the mistake of reading the newspaper and it seemed like the world as we know it was coming to a violent end.

Don't read newpapers; open your heart and mind!

[LaoPo]

the fact that bored farrangs... some that dont even live in thailand post headlines as to imply that there is a crisis does not make it a crisis .

I hope you don't mean me, by saying that, Highdiver.

I'm not such a negative doom sayer, just a realist registering news, that's all.

You know, after bad times, good times will run around the corner and opportunities will knock on your/our door again.

Like it always will.

Good times, bad times: the good times will stay in our minds forever, the bad ones we'll tell our grandchildren; how badly we suffered...

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

highdiver, i guess you still believe in the tooth fairy and santa claus.....oh well fantasy helps dull the pain i guess.....

anyway here is some reality behind the "genius of the coup", let me guess highdiver, you dont read the Economist since there are no comic pages........

Thailand's political stand-off

Penalty shoot-out

The game is not over yet, despite the goals the junta has scored

Besides awarding themselves a huge increase in the official defence budget, military chiefs have installed themselves on the boards of state firms, from which, it is alleged, they are seeking big, secret contributions to army funds.

The danger is that, as happened after Thailand's last coup, in 1991, rising public anger at the generals' attempts to cling to power may eventually lead to violence. Even if the elections promised for late this year take place and return a civilian government, it may be a weak, unstable coalition.

http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9409294

[LaoPo]

Thailand too expensive for steelmakers

Tata Steel chooses Vietnam for plant

High electricity costs, lack of coal, iron ore and scrap prevent Thailand's steel industry from competing with other Asian countries, said Tata Steel Ltd. The Indian company does not plan to build an iron smelter in Thailand despite the fact that steel consumption in the country would continue to grow in next four decades, said B. Muthuraman, managing director of Tata Steel Ltd, who is visiting Thailand for the company's first anniversary.

He said that the investment in Thailand followed Tata Steel's global merger and acquisition strategy. The company acquired a 65% stake in SET-listed Millennium Steel Plc in 2005 before raising its stake to 72% and renaming the company Tata Steel (Thailand).

Tata Steel is the world's sixth largest steelmaker, and produces 25 million tonnes of steel products per year.

Mr Muthuraman said that Vietnam offered lower production costs and more natural resources such coal and gas. Vietnam's steel market is also expanding due to its rapid industrial infrastructure development.

The company has signed an agreement with Vietnam Steel Corporation for a joint venture project on an integrated steel plant. Mr Muthuraman said feasibility studies for the project were being conducted now.

Tata Steel aimed to double its steel production capacity in Vietnam to 10 million tonnes per year by 2010, he added.

For Thailand, instead of undertaking a large iron smelting project as other steel giants propose, Tata opted to import billet or scrap from countries with lower production costs, including India, to supply its finishing steel plant.

Rest of article here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/18Jul2007_biz48.php

Thailand offers to invest in poultry sector

KARACHI: Charoen Pokphand Foods, multi billion Thai investment group has discussed sizeable investment in setting up of breeder farm and feed mill in Punjab.(Pakistan)

A five-member delegation headed by Nuttakrik Sivasri, Vice Chairman, Charoen Pokphand Foods, a private limited company of Thailand met Federal Minister for Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Sikandar Hayat Khan Bosan on Tuesday in order to finalise the details of their investment in poultry sector of Pakistan.

The minister said we are looking for investment in dairy farming and modern meat processing unit to meet the bigger demand of Halal meat by Malaysia and Middle East countries. The CP Group discussed with the minister prospects of CP Group investment project in Pakistan. This group is a big conglomerate and a leading international business enterprise that deals with agri-business from farm to folk. The annual turnover of the company is more than $12 billion. CP Group has visited Pakistan twice and Government of Punjab (GoP) has offered land to the group for breeder farm and feed mill.

Source: Daily Times/Pakistan

LaoPo

[Prakanong]

Lao

Thailand needs to look at it comparitive and competitive advantages vis a vis its neighbours soon. A bit id a SWOT plus Porters diamond?

Companies are taking investments to Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore etc. Even the basket case of Cambodia now has oil and a rating from Standard and Poor with it being talked about as a future investment market.

Yes of course Thailand gets investment but of what type and in comparison with its competitors in the region how much?

Even if it grows areother countries getting more - they are coming up from a lower base of course but they can also suck investment away from Thailand.

Low skilled assembly plants do not cut it!

[SiamSquare123]

why doesnt thai gov lock the baht at a fixed exchange rate?

[Prakanong]

why doesnt thai gov lock the baht at a fixed exchange rate?

Look what happened last time

[cclub75]

why doesnt thai gov lock the baht at a fixed exchange rate?

Because, they... can't afford it.

From my point of view, there are 3 ways to have a fixed exchange rate :

-the burmese/north korea way.

The gvt sets an official rate, totally fictionnous. But nobody cares because nobody is doing business with thoses isolated countries.. Hard to imagine in Thailand.

-the chinese/japanese ways

Here we are not speaking about real "fixed rate". But simply currency manipulation to achieve the same goal (in this case to depress Yen and RMB) . Many mechanisms are used. However, there are 2 conditions to succeed : be large and have means.

Thailand is not, and hasn't...

-the malaysian way

In 97, in order to protect itself from Asian crisis, Malaysia took drastic mesures : capital controls, and fixed exchange rate, etc. It was the finger to IMF and the "speculators".

The problem is : the context was totally different. The idea was to fight againt devaluation, capital outflows. Today, it's the exact opposite. Therefore, it's difficult to foresee what could be the results of such a policy, if applied but in an "inversed" mode.

To sum'up : we do not know. The thai authorities do not know. They seem totally frozen by fear, and keep repeating that everything is under control like a beheaded chicken running around.

The fuziness is total.

However, keep the faith. The general elections will solve all our problems. I'm joking, but actually the situation is getting worse day after day.

Edited July 18, 2007 by cclub75

[Mid]

... somehow I miss ThaiGoon

Japan's Honda announces output expansion plans for India, Thailand

07.18.07, 12:07 AM ET

TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Honda Motor Co Ltd, the second-largest Japanese automaker, unveiled Wednesday a fresh growth strategy that will see it boost its car production capacity in India and Thailand while opening a new factory in Argentina.

The moves are designed to offset dwindling domestic demand.

forbes.com

[wintermute]

... somehow I miss ThaiGoon

Japan's Honda announces output expansion plans for India, Thailand

07.18.07, 12:07 AM ET

TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Honda Motor Co Ltd, the second-largest Japanese automaker, unveiled Wednesday a fresh growth strategy that will see it boost its car production capacity in India and Thailand while opening a new factory in Argentina.

The moves are designed to offset dwindling domestic demand.

forbes.com

The benefits of this type of investment in assembly and manufacturing on the Thai economy is dubious. Remember when the Thais were bragging on and on about how exports were up "18%" and then someone finally spoke up saying that most of the growth was from foreign invested high tech companies. Those companies were and still are benefiting from cheaper material imports. I don't see how high tech foreign invested companies benefit the majority of Thais when the bulk of the profit is shifted into multinational pockets. I suppose Thai workers may benefit but they are being paid cheap developing world wages to maintain highly profitable foreign enterprise. That's a small slice of the pie when you consider the bigger picture.