How has Thailand avoided the worst of Covid-19? – VIDEO

[webfact]

How has Thailand avoided the worst of Covid-19? – VIDEO

By The Thaiger

 

 

We examine some of the reasons Thailand has been able to avoid the surges and 2nd waves of Covid-19. Whilst many countries are now suffering a 2nd and 3rd wave of the coronavirus, Thailand has locked itself in a bubble of its own making. Almost zero cases and any new cases coming from repatriates. Now the country has to figure out how to re-open its economy and borders, safely.

 

Why has Thailand, with a population greater than that of the UK, been largely spared the catastrophic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic sweeping the nation and much of the world?

 

Social distancing is embedded in Thai culture – Thais rarely touch when greeting, preferring the prayer-like “wai” gesture to a handshake or embrace. Could this custom be at least partly responsible for the country’s low numbers?

 

 

There have been no overwhelmed hospitals in the country’s public hospital system. No dead bodies in the streets. No social media postings from frantic doctors or nurses. The country simply acted swiftly, and with a determined force.

 

Thailand was quick to adopt the use of facemasks, close schools and enforce social distancing on public transport, even before declaring a national state of emergency and curfew, sealing its borders and forbidding interprovincial travel. Is that what prevented the runaway transmission of the virus here? Is there a genetic component that makes the immune systems of Thais (and others in the Mekong River region) more resistant to the virus? Or is it some combination of all these factors that have insulated this country of 69 million?

 

One thing’s for sure, despite an influx of foreign visitors early in the year from countries badly hit by the virus, especially China, Thailand has recorded just 3,236 cases since January, 58 deaths and achieved a 95.5% recovery rate. As of today, there have been no cases of local transmission for about 7 weeks (although there’s been a steady flow of daily single-figure infections as Thais repatriate from overseas)

 

Source: https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/how-has-thailand-avoided-the-worst-of-covid-19

 

-- © Copyright The Thaiger 2020-09-30

 

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[Thaiwrath]

2 minutes ago, webfact said:

Almost zero cases

And almost zero testing !

[offset]

Just now, Thaiwrath said:

And almost zero testing !

Please tell me where testing has helped the USA or the UK to stop infections, is testing just a waste of money and to make the politicians look good

[mikebike]

2 minutes ago, offset said:

Please tell me where testing has helped the USA or the UK to stop infections...

Because there are 2 more parts to the equation for it to actually work: test, TRACE and TRACK.

 

Also requires people to adhere to guidelines and restrictions.

[4evermaat]

Could it be that they realized that an unrealistic response to covid-19, where you decimate the majority of the population's means to earn a living (and by extension feed themselves and their family) could have potentially been worse than the virus itself?

 

https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/01/could-the-covid19-response-be-more-deadly-than-the-virus/

 

They can only do so much in that the majority of the world has also sealed itself off.   Sweden also responded similarly, where they didn't cut off both their arms or legs unnecessarily to save the body.   You'd be alive, but what quality of life would you have?

[yeahbutif]

Its seems to me Thailand done it right. I glad I have been here all the time to date since the virus started rather them being anywhere else in the world. Have not met anyone with the virus or have any symptoms. So things seem to go on fairly normal. I know some people mainly falangs on this site who are like spoilt children complaining mainly as they don’t have freedom with the ladies and bars and drink. But for god sake grow up.  I have Not come across any low income Thaïs complaining as they seem happy to stay safe.as most of there income comes from Thai people  As some one said about not testing so the numbers are low, but as we see no dead bodies on the streets, and as for income lost from tourist.   They mainly big million baht companies and I’m sure they can keep a float. all in all one very happy falang . .    

[richard_smith237]

The Graph below is data presented from Worldometers - UK Daily Deaths stacked over UK Daily new cases. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

The information speaks for itself - while new cases in the UK are increasing the daily deaths are not increasing at anywhere near the same rate. 

 

The reasons for this could be numerous:

- Those at high risk are now better protected

- Herd immunity is in place

- Increased testing of asymptomatic general public

 

 

The UK locked down slightly before Thailand. Thailand had its first official case before the UK.

Thailand had 10’s of thousands of visitors from China throughout the year.

The first cases in China were reported to be in Mid-November (4 men and 5 women reported to be infected) - none were classed as Patient Zero. 

Thailand reported a surge in viral pneumonia cases in late 2019 early 2020. 

 

 

It’s entirely possible that Thailand is 5-6 months ahead of the UK. 

 

What the UK is seeing now is an huge increase in cases, some call it a second wave. 

What Thailand saw in March may well have been their second wave. However without domestic testing its impossible to tell how many people are infected. 

 

Why aren’t the hospitals filled up with bodies? - During April, there may not have been a significant increase in deaths from Covid-19, just as the UK is not seeing a significant increase in deaths from Covid-19 now. 

 

 

Why weren’t the hospitals filled up with bodies in Nov to Jan IF thats when the First wave hit in Thailand?

 

Answers:

- No one was heightened to an outbreak then

- People wouldn’t notice an increase unless a central data collection system was looking for it.

  > Approx 1300 hospitals in Thailand,

  > IF an additional 30,000 deaths over 2 months 

  > Thats 11 Covid-19 deaths per month (in each hospital) 

- The yearly death toll in Thailand is ±600,00 per year /  ±50,000 per month / 40 per hospital. 

 

Would anyone have really notice an additional 10 deaths per month in a hospital ?

Is there even a system set up to follow the metrics and report anomalies ?

 

 

IMO - its possible that there was an increase in Covid-19 deaths, it just wasn’t picked up. 

Its possible Covid-19 had already ran its course in Thailand and what we are seeing in the UK is just a second wave amongst a population with some form of immunity. 

 

 

 

Chart: Daily new Cases in the UK Vs Deaths (brown curve is Deaths ‘with’ Covid-19).

Edited September 30, 2020 by richard_smith237

[richard_smith237]

3 hours ago, yeahbutif said:

Its seems to me Thailand done it right. I glad I have been here all the time to date since the virus started rather them being anywhere else in the world. Have not met anyone with the virus or have any symptoms. So things seem to go on fairly normal. I know some people mainly falangs on this site who are like spoilt children complaining mainly as they don’t have freedom with the ladies and bars and drink. But for god sake grow up.  I have Not come across any low income Thaïs complaining as they seem happy to stay safe.as most of there income comes from Thai people  As some one said about not testing so the numbers are low, but as we see no dead bodies on the streets, and as for income lost from tourist.   They mainly big million baht companies and I’m sure they can keep a float. all in all one very happy falang . .    

Where would you have come across low income Thai’s ?? You haven’t been going to the bars have you?

Which low income Thai’s would you mix with and converse with to garner this information that they are ‘happy to stay safe’ ??

 

Regarding ‘big income lost from Thai’s’ they’re mainly bing million baht companies... who do they employ?....  

The head of Thailand Chamber of Commerce has predicted 20-25% unemployment across Thailand. 

Reports suggest unemployment is already at 10% https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389095

 

If we were to exaggerate numbers: 100,000 deaths in two months across 77 provinces is ±22 deaths per province per day. 

When broken down the numbers are still too small - the argument that there would be ‘bodies in the street’ is flawed.

Hypothetically there could be an additional 2000 people die tonight in their apartments in Bangkok of some mysterious illness and we wouldn’t see bodies in the street.

 

This infographic highlights the numbers in the UK - it visualises how small the issue really is. 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by richard_smith237

[scammed]

3 hours ago, yeahbutif said:

I glad I have been here all the time to date since the virus started rather them being anywhere else in the world.

...

I have Not come across any low income Thaïs complaining as they seem happy to stay safe.

...

but as we see no dead bodies on the streets

i otoh would rather be in sweden, in spite of the temperature advantage thailand has.

 

i come across thais that are suffering every day from this brain dead shut down of their livelihood

 

no nation has dead bodies in the streets from covid,

but thailand do have a fair share of dead bodies from the traffic here, and its not those dying of age either, but young people

Edited September 30, 2020 by scammed

[sandyf]

7 hours ago, Thaiwrath said:

And almost zero testing !

The stock answer for all those that think the Thai government hasn't bowed to their self interest.

The intellectually superior falang cannot accept that the Thai population recognised the problem before they did.

I did a border bounce at Pedang Besar on the the 5th of Feb and I had to wear a mask to get on the minibus from Chonburi to the railway station. Nearly everyone on the train from Bangkok to PD were wearing masks. At the border precautions were in place and my passport history was checked. On the way back I got off at Bang Sue and the only ones on the MRT not wearing masks were the so called educated westerners.

Remind me, who has suffered the severest restrictions, Thailand or those that thought that mass testing was the silver bullet.

[sandyf]

7 minutes ago, scammed said:

i otoh would rather be in sweden, in spite of the temperature advantage thailand has.

 

i come across thais that are suffering every day from this brain dead shut down of their livelihood

 

no nation has dead bodies in the streets from covid,

but thailand do have a fair share of dead bodies from the traffic here, and its not those dying of age either, but young people

When you are out of options, bring in the traffic.

[sandyf]

7 hours ago, mikebike said:

Also requires people to adhere to guidelines and restrictions.

Absolutely spot on. Foreigners cannot accept that the Thais are better at that than they are.

[Sheryl]

Low population density outside of Bangkok and a culture of most socializing taking place out of doors (again, Bangkok often accepted) are big factors IMO.

 

That and sheer luck -- with the numbers of Chinese visitors in January and February it could have been much, much worse than it was pre-lockdown. Helps I think that there was severe air pollution at that time so that many people were already wearing masks, and of course it was dry season so people were mostly out of doors. But still an element of luck. People always want clear answers but that is often what it comes down to. Like when you toss a lit match in to a dry field. Sometimes it will burn right out, sometimes it will burn just a small areas, and Sometimes the whole thing will go ablaze.

 

Of course the lockdown followed by isolation from outsiders after that made a difference but they could easily have had a much, much worse problem prior to those measures  (which would then have taken much, much longer to cause the outbreak to die down).

 

Should not be too quick to congratulate and should certainly not speculate any sort of special Thai "immunity". There is almost certainly still some low level of transmission taking place and a flare up, in Bangkok especially, is still possible.

 

That said, I can't picture Thailand becoming another India, just does not have the population density. Bangkok area with its mass transit, indoor bars  etc is the biggest vulnerability.

[Yinn]

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

> IF an additional 30,000 deaths over 2 months 

  > Thats 11 Covid-19 deaths per month (in each hospital) 

BS. Covid positive have symptoms. Obvious. Weeks before die. Most survive. 3% death rate.

You think 30,000 dead= 1 million infection. Nobody notice? Pfffft. 

Many sick for many month. Where these 100,000+ sick people now. Why the doctor and nurse not dead/infection????

 

Some people on TVF can not accept that Thailand control covid very well, but there country can not. 

8 months of this conspiracy theories now. This the new one. Rediculos.

imagination. Dream 

 

UK can not because have to many anti maskers, anti vaxxers, anti tracing appers. Protesters, loons, covidiots. Not test old people, not stay hospital but send to elderly care homes and spread. Not enough mask for doctor and nurse. Covid 8 months now and still argue about the rules. Left versus right political. Statues. 

 

thailand control because listen to doctor/science, not political. 

It simple. Is virus spread people contact. Stay home, wear mask in public place, social distance, trace, temperature road blocks, plaza, not travel, close restaurant and pub etc etc 

 

7/11 Thailand temperature check and mask. In UK?

 

Thai people join together fight covid. For the Thai nation, Not fight each other.

 

UK have Chinese tourists? Yes. 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

21 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The stock answer for all those that think the Thai government hasn't bowed to their self interest.

The intellectually superior falang cannot accept that the Thai population recognised the problem before they did.

I did a border bounce at Pedang Besar on the the 5th of Feb and I had to wear a mask to get on the minibus from Chonburi to the railway station. Nearly everyone on the train from Bangkok to PD were wearing masks. At the border precautions were in place and my passport history was checked. On the way back I got off at Bang Sue and the only ones on the MRT not wearing masks were the so called educated westerners.

Remind me, who has suffered the severest restrictions, Thailand or those that thought that mass testing was the silver bullet.

Interesting... 

 

I don’t recall ’nearly everyone' were wearing masks in Bangkok in Mid Feb - in fact hardly anyone was. 

 

I also flew from Japan to Thailand in mid Feb, no one at the airport was wearing masks, not many on the flight were (granted about 10% were). Thailand did have a 'temperature check cam’ set up.

 

In fact at the time (Mid Feb) there were an awful lot of threads on this forum ranging from highlighting how Thailand is doing so little and still letting in hordes of Chinese tourists to those who were suggesting the world media is just over reacting. 

 

One thing I am certain of, In February Thailands reaction to Covid-19 was very limited. 

 

Thailands reaction became a lot stronger when Europe’s lockdown kicked in. 

- Italy locked down on 9th March.

- Spain Locked down on 14th March.

- The UK locked down on 23rd March. 

- Thailand locked down on 26th March.

 

Either mask wearing and the Wai (no handshake) is a LOT more effective at preventing transmission of viruses than people are giving credit for, or there is more to it. 

 

----

 

That said: I do believe that westerners are a lot more ‘resistant’ to authoritative instructions such as mask wearing. 

Just reading the threads on this forum highlights this, then look at the protests against mask wearing in the US, UK and other European Countries - its moronic.... Its just a mask <deleted>. 

 

I hate wearing a mask, really hate it. But I’m happy to wear one, not because I believe its *effective, but because it keeps everyone else around me happy (when in confined areas), for the same reasons I don’t act like an a$$.hole !

 

The lockdowns in the UK and Thailand were similar with the exception that people in Thailand wore masks. 

People could still go to the Supermarket or pharmacy, people could still exercise outdoors and walk their dogs etc - mask wearing was the only real difference. There are of course stories in both nations of groups breaking lockdown protocol, but on the big picture these were very minor events. 

 

 

 

*I suspect masks are not ‘as effective’ as they are made out to be. That said, as part of a combined effort, along with washing hands, and social distancing etc I believe wearing a mask has a partial impact but only when used correctly. 

 

i.e. [used correctly] - how many people wear their ‘reusable’ mask all week and don’t wash them? how many leave their masks on the dining room table or kitchen work top? how many leave a worn mask in the car? 

 

IF masks wearing is effective is when a disposable mask is used and disposed of correctly after a short time, otherwise this idea that ‘mask wearing alone’ is the reason Thailand has avoided Covid-19 is massively flawed. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yinn]

46 minutes ago, sandyf said:

The stock answer for all those that think the Thai government hasn't bowed to their self interest.

The intellectually superior falang cannot accept that the Thai population recognised the problem before they did.

I did a border bounce at Pedang Besar on the the 5th of Feb and I had to wear a mask to get on the minibus from Chonburi to the railway station. Nearly everyone on the train from Bangkok to PD were wearing masks. At the border precautions were in place and my passport history was checked. On the way back I got off at Bang Sue and the only ones on the MRT not wearing masks were the so called educated westerners.

Remind me, who has suffered the severest restrictions, Thailand or those that thought that mass testing was the silver bullet.

Thailand test. But been negative long time now= less testing.

if we have 45,000 deaths will test more. Sure. 

eg if Yinn have covid everyone my village will test. But not necessary. 

In countrys with lot of covid= test necessary. 

 

Thailand first country to test. (Not in China) 

Chinese tourist went to USA, UK etc November- Febuary. 

 

The TVF members say “Thailand not test enough” 

But they not test same themself. Why not? Because not necessary. 

[Yinn]

12 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Interesting... 

 

I don’t recall ’nearly everyone' were wearing masks in Bangkok in Mid Feb - in fact hardly anyone was. 

 

I also flew from Japan to Thailand in mid Feb, no one at the airport was wearing masks, not many on the flight were (granted about 10% were). Thailand did have a 'temperature check cam’ set up.

 

In fact at the time (Mid Feb) there were an awful lot of threads on this forum ranging from highlighting how Thailand is doing so little and still letting in hordes of Chinese tourists to those who were suggesting the world media is just over reacting. 

 

One thing I am certain of, In February Thailands reaction to Covid-19 was very limited. 

 

Thailands reaction became a lot stronger when Europe’s lockdown kicked in. 

- Italy locked down on 9th March.

- Spain Locked down on 14th March.

- The UK locked down on 23rd March. 

- Thailand locked down on 26th March.

 

Either mask wearing and the Wai (no handshake) is a LOT more effective at preventing transmission of viruses than people are giving credit for, or there is more to it. 

 

----

 

That said: I do believe that westerners are a lot more ‘resistant’ to authoritative instructions such as mask wearing. 

Just reading the threads on this forum highlights this, then look at the protests against mask wearing in the US, UK and other European Countries - its moronic.... Its just a mask <deleted>. 

 

I hate wearing a mask, really hate it. But I’m happy to wear one, not because I believe its *effective, but because it keeps everyone else around me happy (when in confined areas), for the same reasons I don’t act like an a$$.hole !

 

The lockdowns in the UK and Thailand were similar with the exception that people in Thailand wore masks. 

People could still go to the Supermarket or pharmacy, people could still exercise outdoors and walk their dogs etc - mask wearing was the only real difference. There are of course stories in both nations of groups breaking lockdown protocol, but on the big picture these were very minor events. 

 

 

 

*I suspect masks are not ‘as effective’ as they are made out to be. That said, as part of a combined effort, along with washing hands, and social distancing etc I believe wearing a mask has a partial impact but only when used correctly. 

 

i.e. [used correctly] - how many people wear their ‘reusable’ mask all week and don’t wash them? how many leave their masks on the dining room table or kitchen work top? how many leave a worn mask in the car? 

 

IF masks wearing is effective is when a disposable mask is used and disposed of correctly after a short time, otherwise this idea that ‘mask wearing alone’ is the reason Thailand has avoided Covid-19 is massively flawed. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pffft

[Rambo69]

Thailand has avoided the worst of CV19 by not testing everyone. Once you start testing everyone more people show up with CV19. 

 

Goat and pawpaw 'test positive' for COVID-19 in Tanzania

 

[richard_smith237]

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

1 hour ago, richard_smith237 said:

> IF an additional 30,000 deaths over 2 months 

  > Thats 11 Covid-19 deaths per month (in each hospital) 

BS. Covid positive have symptoms. Obvious. Weeks before die. Most survive. 3% death rate.

You think 30,000 dead= 1 million infection. Nobody notice? Pfffft. 

Many sick for many month. Where these 100,000+ sick people now. Why the doctor and nurse not dead/infection????

In two months, 30,000 dead from Covid-19...  Nope not from Covid-19 alone. 

The CDC has evaluated that 94% of Covid-19 deaths involves comorbidity. i.e. 6% of Covid-19 deaths were attributed to Covid-19 only. Another 94% of Covid-19 deaths include another illnesses / disease which has possibly contributed towards the death.

 

Thus: when levelling the playing field it is entirely possible that if Thailand tested people for Covid-19 as far back as November its entirely possible that the ‘Died WITH Covid-19’ is a far higher statistic. 

 

I believe in the West we have been evaluating the stats incorrectly and should have been concentrating on statics of those who died because of Covid-19 and hospitalised due to Covid-19.

 

In an attempt to evaluate ‘like for like’ with the hypothetical number of 30,000 deaths - 28,200 (94%) could easily have been contributed to something else, and 1800 deaths could have been solely attributed to Covid-19. 

Thats if there was Covid-19 testing back then in Nov / Dec and Jan which there wasn’t - so the deaths may well have just been attributed to ‘Viral Pneumonia’... 

 

And guess what, there were reports of huge increases in cases Viral Pneumonia around that time. 

 

So, Yinn... When looking at the data, how its collected between nations and the timelines - its quite possible Thailand had cases and didn’t notice. 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

Some people on TVF can not accept that Thailand control covid very well, but there country can not. 

8 months of this conspiracy theories now. This the new one. Rediculos.

imagination. Dream 

I think thats answered above. No conspiracy. No one colluded to hide numbers. It's possible that the numbers were not noticed in Thailand. 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

UK can not because have to many anti maskers, anti vaxxers, anti tracing appers. Protesters, loons, covidiots.

No disagreement from me there. The west has a lot of loony folk who want to protest anything and everything. 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

Not test old people, not stay hospital but send to elderly care homes and spread. Not enough mask for doctor and nurse. Covid 8 months now and still argue about the rules. Left versus right political. Statues. 

 

The UK had a massively flawed response. It didn’t look after those at high risk.

Not enough PPE was as global issue. Masks were scares in Thailand in Mid Feb - I remember trying to get some. 

 

I agree - Politics has definitely got in the way of this. In the UK definitely, and in Thailand too. The Global politics of this issue has got in the way. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

thailand control because listen to doctor/science, not political. 

It simple. Is virus spread people contact. Stay home, wear mask in public place, social distance, trace, temperature road blocks, plaza, not travel, close restaurant and pub etc etc 

Thailand response was not too dissimilar to the UK. 

You’ve read some extreme cases in the news. Thailand has had its share of people also breaking the rules - the UK obviously more so.

 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

7/11 Thailand temperature check and mask. In UK?

In March and April - No masks no temp checks in the UK. 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

Thai people join together fight covid. For the Thai nation, Not fight each other.

A bit ’North Korea’ - The Thai people are not unified together to fight covid for the benefit of their nation - they have simply grown up in an education system where they are indoctrinated into doing what they are told or what’s expected of them... we can see this at 8am and 6pm every day. 

 

1 minute ago, Yinn said:

UK have Chinese tourists? Yes. 

Yes, of course the UK had Chinese tourists....   far smaller numbers than Thailand and not package tours of those in provincial areas.

 

But, if your argument stands and that Chinese would have brought the Virus to the UK... how did Thailand escape then ???

 

 

 

[Yinn]

4 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

But, if your argument stands and that Chinese would have brought the Virus to the UK... how did Thailand escape then ???

204 countrys less than UK. 

Question you should ask be “why uk so much. Why?” 

 

You beleive because UK terrible job= Thailand must be same?

Most country under 50 per million.

Not worry about Thailand. worry yourself.

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

if Yinn have covid everyone my village will test. But not necessary. 

No one would know... because you’ve not been tested !!!! 

 

Its only IF you are unwell and go to hospital with Covid-19 symptoms you will be tested (perhaps thats the best method, see why below). 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

In countrys with lot of covid= test necessary. 

Wrong way round. In countries with lots of Covid-19 testing = countries with more Covid !!!

 

Reported in the Lancet: There is also the issue that the Covid-19 RT PCR test carries with it a possible ‘false positive’ on the low estimate of  0.8 and 4.0% which means of the 22,209,600 Covid-19 RT PCR tests in the UK Carried out to date - there is a potential mathematic ‘false positive error’ of 177,000 cases. 

To date there have been 412,000 Covid-19 cases - perhaps many of them false. 

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0qAIZ7_7ELiBzWLNaWLXP4Y57NhlyIrtYlV6VNZHf-AxbN6_Xq3Zl5yXI

 

Perhaps we’ve tested ourselves into a panic and Thailand (and Yinn) has it right - Just test those with symptoms. 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Thailand first country to test. (Not in China) 

Thailand had the first positive Covid-19 case outside of China - Correct. 

Yet it shut down after the EU but still had less cases... hmmm.... 

 

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

Chinese tourist went to USA, UK etc November- Febuary. 

In the same numbers?...  increased probability of transmission with increased tourist numbers. 

Thailand receives far greater numbers of Chinese Tourists than the UK. 

in 2019 - the UK received 883,000 tourists from China. 

In 2017 - Thailand received 12 Million tourists from China (27% of Thailand’s international tourist arrivals)

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/515789/chinese-tourist-visits-to-the-united-kingdom-uk/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1048386/thailand-tourist-arrivals-from-china/

 

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

The TVF members say “Thailand not test enough” 

Correct - It would be idea if Thailand could develop a better picture of what is going on with Covid-19 within its borders. Would that not be a reasonable approach. 

i.e. start by testing 10,000 people in each province and evaluating the result. 

 

21 minutes ago, Yinn said:

But they not test same themself. Why not? Because not necessary. 

Because a Covid-19 test at a private hospital costs 6000 baht - its not free for foreigners. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Marco100]

[Marco100]

Patient under Investigation ? 

Any one knows about PUI ?

[richard_smith237]

29 minutes ago, Yinn said:

204 countrys less than UK. 

Question you should ask be “why uk so much. Why?” 

 

You beleive because UK terrible job= Thailand must be same?

Most country under 50 per million.

Not worry about Thailand. worry yourself.

 

That question has already been answered in post #19. The CDC announced that 94% of Covid-19 deaths included ‘comorbidity’

 

Its possible that the UK and some of the other nations with figures so high (*especially the US) have such high figures because deaths from other causes have been counted as Covid-19 deaths because of the manner in which the statistics have been collected and counted as ‘deaths with Covid-19’ and not 'because of’....

 

The reasons for the collection of statistics in a flawed manner may vary. i.e. in the US the claims that hospitals receive more money for Covid-19 patients and a patient can be ‘claimed’ covid-19 positive by a doctor based on symptoms alone.

And then of course the UK and all other nations with multimillions being tested, the false positive error margin plays a greater impact on increased covid-19 numbers. 

 

No country seems to have ‘got their reporting’ bang on, or rather, there are facets of the manner in which each nation records its statistics which can be criticised, this leads me on to my final point here, which is, not to imply Thailand is bad and the UK (or West is good), I think the UK has handled this crisis with fundamental flaws. Yet, this thread is titled "How has Thailand avoided the worst of Covid-19?” and my answer to that is not a criticism of Thailand but an explanation of why I think cases may have spread to Thailand earlier and not been noticed. 

 

The difference here, Yinn, is that I’ve explained my thought process whereas you have become defensive - its not always ‘Thailand bad the West good’ - look for more in peoples discussion without getting defensive and failing to see the forest for the trees. 

Edited September 30, 2020 by richard_smith237

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, Marco100 said:

Patient under Investigation ? 

Any one knows about PUI ?

Incoming international passengers (in quarantine)

Those with recorded temperatures higher than 37.5deg C and cold symptoms 

Those in hospitals with ‘risk factors’ and history of travel in last 14 days 

Those with contact with Covid-19 cases 

Cluster pneumonia patients who’ve tested negative for Covid-19

Medical personal in areas where Covid-19 tests have been positive that week 

 

Ultimately - those considered at risk and need observation / testing.

 

No idea why they are not just tested then !

[Marco100]

9 minutes ago, Marco100 said:

Patient under Investigation ? 

Any one knows about PUI ?

Are this 450.000 Patient under Investigation tested for CV ?

[Marco100]

2 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Incoming international passengers (in quarantine)

Those with recorded temperatures higher than 37.5deg C and cold symptoms 

Those in hospitals with ‘risk factors’ and history of travel in last 14 days 

Those with contact with Covid-19 cases 

Cluster pneumonia patients who’ve tested negative for Covid-19

Medical personal in areas where Covid-19 tests have been positive that week 

 

Ultimately - those considered at risk and need observation / testing.

 

No idea why they are not just tested then !

This 450.000 Patient under Investigation is an update of the 30 of September and are growing every day .

Why they are not tested ? Good question. 

[richard_smith237]

25 minutes ago, Marco100 said:

30 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Incoming international passengers (in quarantine)

Those with recorded temperatures higher than 37.5deg C and cold symptoms 

Those in hospitals with ‘risk factors’ and history of travel in last 14 days 

Those with contact with Covid-19 cases 

Cluster pneumonia patients who’ve tested negative for Covid-19

Medical personal in areas where Covid-19 tests have been positive that week 

 

Ultimately - those considered at risk and need observation / testing.

 

No idea why they are not just tested then !

This 450.000 Patient under Investigation is an update of the 30 of September and are growing every day .

Why they are not tested ? Good question. 

 

Some are - i.e. the ones in quarantine (some tested 3 times over their stay). 

 

Over the past week Thailand has tested between 688 and 1649 people per day. 

Raw Data Source: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/testing/covid-testing-all-observations.xlsx

 

Best case scenario (given 1649 tests per day) it would take 272 days to test all PUI’s.

 

 

Graph below shows test per day for Thailand and the UK. 

 

Is the UK testing so much now that of the 198,402 Covid-19 RT PCR tests carried out on 29th Sept, 0.8% to 4.0% of them could be false positives (according the Lancet - Link)

 

Quote from the Lancet: 

["The current rate of operational false-positive swab tests in the UK is unknown; preliminary estimates show it could be somewhere between 0·8% and 4·0%. This rate could translate into a significant proportion of false-positive results daily due to the current low prevalence of the virus in the UK population”]

 

= Between 1587 and 7936 new cases on sept 29th which could be a false positive. 

 

The total recorded number of cases in the UK on 29th September was 7143 cases

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

 

 

If the Lancet’s false positive error margin is correct many nations could testing themselves into a panic. Particularly the UK as this example shows. 

 

Which begs the question: Should the world be locked down at all any more? 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by richard_smith237

[androokery]

Extremely interesting article in Nature by well respected authors:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3_reference.pdf
 

The fact that Thailand doesn’t have a high death rate may actually be linked to DNA and Neanderthals. 

[richard_smith237]

50 minutes ago, androokery said:

Extremely interesting article in Nature by well respected authors:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3_reference.pdf
 

The fact that Thailand doesn’t have a high death rate may actually be linked to DNA and Neanderthals. 

Thats incredible... 

 

From what I can understand of the paper, it outlines how the 'risk genes’ may have evolved out of East Asians through selection.

 

Whats also striking is how this ‘risk gene’ (the genetic variants associated with sever Covid-19) are more prevalent in those originating from the Indian Subcontinent yet absent in those from Africa and Amazonia (brazil Covid-19 stats high because of recent the European influence) 

 

The risk gene is also prevalent in those of the Papua region - it will be interesting to see how this theory plays out there (if accurate data collection is possible).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2020 by richard_smith237