COVID-19 is not going away soon or ever

[Ventenio]

Ever?    I will bet you 100000 zillion billion that in the year 7529 there will be NO Covid.

 

Are you sure I'm wrong???

[n00dle]

On 10/16/2020 at 6:01 AM, simon43 said:

I live in Laos.  Life returned to normal many months ago, because we've not had a single Covid death in the country and only 20 cases - now all recovered.

 

No rules now to wear masks etc, but many people (including myself) put on a mask before entering a shop or when in close contact with others. (I consider it worthwhile to minimise the spread of any airborne pathogen). The main downside to this pandemic has been the loss of foreign tourists in my town, which has led to the closure of many businesses. 

 

It's still difficult to enter/leave the country.  I hope that when (if?) tourists return to Laos, that we do not have any new outbreaks of this disease.

to say there are no covid cases in laos is kind of silly. none reported, sure, but none?

Laos got off easy because Thailand and other surrounding countries shut the borders. 

be interesting to see what happens when traffic returns.

Edited October 18, 2020 by n00dle

[unblocktheplanet]

A Toronto immunologist has weighed in comparing the China (sheesh! grow up!) flu with the 'Spanish' flu. There was never a vaccine for that one, either. First wave: Spring 1918; second wave Fall 1918 (far more widespread & deadly), so far seems to correspond to Covid. January 1919 was the third wave, followed by a smaller & localised fourth wave until the flu mutated & weakened by April 2020. Scientists tell us a weaker variety of that 1918 flu is still with us.

 

We modernes live on snippets, sound bites & cameos. 10 months, give or take, in, feels like a lifetime. But we have a way to go yet. Hopefully, Covid will weaken and go away. That's what I'm counting on.

[Odysseus123]

1 hour ago, PatrickC said:

Nope - we'll get on with our lives now, thank you very much. Thanks for the suggestion - we're happy to ignore it though.

Oh..but you are not able to ignore it.Tried to get on a plane and fly to Thailand recently-or the reverse?

 

Ignorance is bliss especially if you are from Ozarkville..USA.

Edited October 18, 2020 by Odysseus123

[Odysseus123]

36 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

I flew into Thailand recently, yes.

 

I'm aware of course aware of the insanely sensationalist reactions to what is just a part of the every day cycle of life and death, and has been blown out of all proportion. Unfortunately, one can't not be aware of it.

 

However, we can get on with life. I don't read any covid news. I couldn't give a monkeys about it, frankly. I prefer to keep a healthy mind and not read the hysteria.

 

If you want to obsess about it, read about it every day, go ahead. It is though an utterly boring topic of no real importance. 

 

No idea what the Ozarkville reference means.

You flew into Thailand recently?

 

How was the difficult medical clearances and the two week quarantine?

 

Surely you did notice those and they had some impact (albeit minimal) on your heroic views of life..?

 

In short you just couldn't waltz along (in your Libertarian way) when you wanted to shouting "freedom,freedom..glory hallelujah?'

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, unblocktheplanet said:

A Toronto immunologist has weighed in comparing the China (sheesh! grow up!) flu with the 'Spanish' flu. There was never a vaccine for that one, either. First wave: Spring 1918; second wave Fall 1918 (far more widespread & deadly), so far seems to correspond to Covid. January 1919 was the third wave, followed by a smaller & localised fourth wave until the flu mutated & weakened by April 2020. Scientists tell us a weaker variety of that 1918 flu is still with us.

 

We modernes live on snippets, sound bites & cameos. 10 months, give or take, in, feels like a lifetime. But we have a way to go yet. Hopefully, Covid will weaken and go away. That's what I'm counting on.

There are parrallels but Covid-19 is not a flu.

[placnx]

17 hours ago, Jingthing said:

 

 

17 hours ago, Jingthing said:

17 hours ago, placnx said:

I saw a BBC World News Global Questions discussion last weekend in which two experts, one - chief scientist of WHO, the other - Sunetra Gupta, an Oxford epidemiologist and an author of the Great Barrington Declaration, debated the concept proposed by the latter - to isolate vulnerable people and let the young go about their lives.

 

In light of emerging evidence that, after infection, immunity may not be long lasting and that we are still discovering the long-term debilitating complications of Covid, even on the young, it is extremely irresponsible of Gupta to present "herd immunity" by mass infection as a viable solution and to suggest that lockdown is the only alternative. Obviously there are many possibilities short of lockdown, as has been demonstrated very well where rapid testing was deployed early on.

 

FYI This is the Great Barrington Declaration: https://gbdeclaration.org/

 

Yes I certainly agree that there other approaches other than "total lockdown forever" and letting the virus run through the population unchecked. This entire herd immunity without a vaccine needs to be totally crushed. Its basically mass murder,  it would be impossible to effectively shield the high risk population, and it also won't work as well as the vaccine path.

Edited 17 hours ago by Jingthing

The Great Barrington Declaration was answered by a correspondence by 31 authors in The Lancet four days ago:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

"Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now"

This substantiates with detailed references what Jingthing has been explaining. It refutes the "herd immunity" proposal in the Great Barrington Declaration: "This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence." It warns of the severe consequences that would result from following Barrington.

"We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence. To support this call for action, sign the John Snow Memorandum."

This memorandum is in fact the text from The Lancet (see above).

https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/sign.html

[VBF]

1 hour ago, PatrickC said:

 

<snip> I've no interest in politics - all politicians are the same, just in it for themselves.

Probably the truest words spoken on this or any other forum in a long time!  ????

[elliss]

21 hours ago, Nout said:

Flu is permanent. It hasn't gone away.  Covid will never go away.  TB hasn't gone away neither will Covid.

 

   Correct . 

     Next generation of Pneumonia , as it adapts/ reacts to antibiotics .

    Covid 20 .. Nature wins ...

[Jeffr2]

12 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

I flew into Thailand recently, yes.

 

I'm aware of course aware of the insanely sensationalist reactions to what is just a part of the every day cycle of life and death, and has been blown out of all proportion. Unfortunately, one can't not be aware of it.

 

However, we can get on with life. I don't read any covid news. I couldn't give a monkeys about it, frankly. I prefer to keep a healthy mind and not read the hysteria.

 

If you want to obsess about it, read about it every day, go ahead. It is though an utterly boring topic of no real importance. 

 

No idea what the Ozarkville reference means.

Ostrich and head in sand come to mind.  If you don't read what's going on, you have NO idea.  Just like your comment that CV19 isn't highly contagious.  It is.

 

This was your post, and it's wrong.  But you wouldn't know it because you are trying to ignore this pandemic.  Sad.

 

Quote

This disease is infectious, but not massively infectious.

 

[Jeffr2]

9 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

Correct - recently.

The medical clearances were a nuisance, but do-able. The 2 week quarantine was boring, but also do-able. Not sure what the point is?

 

Life goes on. 

 

What makes you assume I am a libertarian? I'm neither left wing, ring wing, libertarian or any other label. I've no interest in politics - all politicians are the same, just in it for themselves.

Life goes on?  Thousands can't get back to their homes here in Thailand.  For a variety of reasons.  Thousands of us are stuck here because if we leave, getting back in is difficult and expensive.  An expense some can't afford.

 

Hard to live life normally right now.  I do like your comment about politicians.  Sad so many believe what they say.  Stick with the science and you'll be OK.

[n00dle]

On 10/18/2020 at 5:52 PM, PatrickC said:

However, we can get on with life. I don't read any covid news. I couldn't give a monkeys about it, frankly. I prefer to keep a healthy mind and not read the hysteria.

insuspect what people are taking an issue with is that you seem to have an opinion re covid yet repeatedly deny that it is based on any external sources.

[n00dle]

13 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Life goes on?  Thousands can't get back to their homes here in Thailand.  For a variety of reasons.  Thousands of us are stuck here because if we leave, getting back in is difficult and expensive.  An expense some can't afford.

 

Hard to live life normally right now.  I do like your comment about politicians.  Sad so many believe what they say.  Stick with the science and you'll be OK.

 

then there are those of us whose life hasn't changed much. work continues apace wherever we have our laptops and we plug on doing what we do. the only difference is i haven't been able to visit folks in neighboring countries.

[simon43]

You only live once - enjoy it while it lasts, and being locked up in isolation is no way to live.

 

The selfishness of many of this younger generation will result in them being known as the granny-killer generation.....

[Jingthing]

4 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Doubt that. In 2 years this will all be a distant memory. 

No need to get hysterical and claim we're killing grannies. We're not. Calm down.

You're obviously wrong. People that survive this will remember this pandemic for the rest of their lives, similar to the 1918 American flu. As far as killing grannies if the anti science fascists succeed in widely adopting herd immunity without a vaccine succeed with that, sorry, that is killing grannies and many others as well. 

[n00dle]

On 10/18/2020 at 8:29 PM, PatrickC said:

 

Correct - recently.

The medical clearances were a nuisance, but do-able. The 2 week quarantine was boring, but also do-able. Not sure what the point is?

 

Life goes on. 

 

What makes you assume I am a libertarian? I'm neither left wing, ring wing, libertarian or any other label. I've no interest in politics - all politicians are the same, just in it for themselves.

I have about 4 friends who have flown in over the last month. all of them said the same thing, quarantine was dull but comfortable and they got alot of work done

[n00dle]

1 hour ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

The selfishness of many of this younger generation will result in them being known as the granny-killer generation.....

this younger generation.

please tell us more grandfather about the old days when people weren't selfish.

[Jeffr2]

9 hours ago, PatrickC said:

 

Not being able to visit foreign countries is not a big deal. Life goes on. 

For some, yes.  For others, it's a huge deal.  Hard to do your business when you can't easily leave the Kingdom.  And live isn't going on very well for them.

 

Get the virus under control so we can get back to "normal".

[Scott]

A post commenting on moderation has been removed.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 10/19/2020 at 1:56 AM, placnx said:

 

The Great Barrington Declaration was answered by a correspondence by 31 authors in The Lancet four days ago:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext

"Scientific consensus on the COVID-19 pandemic: we need to act now"

This substantiates with detailed references what Jingthing has been explaining. It refutes the "herd immunity" proposal in the Great Barrington Declaration: "This is a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence." It warns of the severe consequences that would result from following Barrington.

"We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence. To support this call for action, sign the John Snow Memorandum."

This memorandum is in fact the text from The Lancet (see above).

https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/sign.html

Seems the science isn't fixed, after all.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[Jeffr2]

58 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Seems the science isn't fixed, after all.

 

 

Ummm....seems the science is totally fixed on this.  Not sure why you say it isn't.

 

[KC 71]

14 hours ago, simon43 said:

 

 

 

The selfishness of many of this younger generation will result in them being known as the granny-killer generation.....

Funny that , Handcock said exactly the same thing !

[Jeffr2]

35 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Start a new business that doesn't involve leaving TH. Learn to adapt.

Right.  So that factory with 100 employees should just be sold?  Oh right, impossible to do now.  I'll tell my friend to adapt.  He's only owned it for 20+ years.

 

Clueless....

[Jeffr2]

42 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Because it is not fixed. There is still a lot we don't know.

You need to go back and read what we were talking about.  The science is fixed on this part.

 

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Why does your friend need to travel? Do what the rest of us who used to travel for business do - use video conferencing instead. Most businesses have adapted just fine.

 

Again - not being able to travel out of Thailand is not a big deal. International travel is a recent thing.  

Are you drinking?  He runs a factory with 100 employees!  That can NOT be done remotely.  Stunning you don't understand this.

 

You are obviously not a business person.

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

Nope, it is not. Many scientists disagree that lockdowns are effective. There are many dissenting opinions. I'm not going to send you any links because clearly you have made your mind up on this and won't listen to anyone. 

 

It is sad that you have siloed yourself off from the world and do not want to consider more than 1 opinion.

NO scientist disagrees with lockdowns.  What they agree on is that it's only one step in getting the virus under control.

 

You know nothing about me.  Don't make assumptions.

[Jeffr2]

The National Vaccine Institute just said that Thailand "could" get jabs by June.  At the earliest.

 

It's in the Post.

[Jeffr2]

1 minute ago, PatrickC said:

 

Sigh. Lots of scientists disagree with lockdowns. So many of them. The fact that you really think none disagree says a lot.

 

Just as one example - 13,000 UK scientists and medical professionals just a few weeks ago signed a petition calling for lockdowns to end. That is just one country.

 

Show me a credible link that proves lots of scientists disagree with lockdowns.  Nothing from InfoWars, nothing from YouTube or Twitter.

 

Otherwise....right....

[Jeffr2]

15 minutes ago, PatrickC said:

 

I work in a large corporation with tens of thousands of employees. I travelled every few weeks before Covid and don't now - everything is done remotely. Works just fine.

 

Post Covid I likely won't travel regularly again. Video conferencing works well enough.

 

I worked in many large corporations.  Traveled all the time.  In my job, no worries.  In my friends job?  Impossible.

 

Why argue about this so much?  Have you ever run a factory?  Give it up....please.

[Jingthing]

Look.

Let's get real. 

At this point Thailand doesn't need to do any Covid-19 lockdowns and hopefully never will have to.

Indeed the WHO has adjusted its guidance on lockdowns suggesting they should be reserved only for very severe situations. 

I happen to agree with the current WHO guidance.

But as we wait for a safe and effective vaccine to both exist and be widely used mitigation efforts will continue to be needed.

Masks,  social distancing, limiting crowd sizes particularly inside. Focusing on any outbreak areas with mass testing and forced isolation of the infected.

Not really too much to ask!

Opening up totally now without mitigation measures before wide adoption of a vaccine is massively irresponsible. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Jingthing