Investing or pulling out of US stock market

[madmitch]

So many differeing views on here which means just one thing: nobody really knows!

 

I screwed up by pulling out in late Feb, when the COVID downturn started, and leaving it too late to go back in. I now have a number of ETFs, mainly, which are there for the longer haul.

[Lacessit]

I'm cash plus P to P lending. Pulled everything out of the sharemarket before the Saudis and Russians had an oil price war.

Staying out until I can see some value in what I am buying. Price: earnings ratios are ridiculous.

 

[EVENKEEL]

15 minutes ago, madmitch said:

So many differeing views on here which means just one thing: nobody really knows!

 

I screwed up by pulling out in late Feb, when the COVID downturn started, and leaving it too late to go back in. I now have a number of ETFs, mainly, which are there for the longer haul.

I thought this covid would drag the market and did like you. Now I have to wait for a good downturn to jump back in.

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Oldie said:

This all sounds good. In the long run the market will go up. 

That is not even true. 

 

Many European financial markets have never recovered their 2000 highs, and 1990 as far as Japan is concerned. 

 

Wall Street is somehow the "last man standing", but for how long? 

 

Constantly propelling the US market comes at a heavy price: the destruction of the dollar!

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, allanos said:

I have also invested a small % of my assets in BTC - which is  getting more and more acceptance from Wall St

 

The bigger BTC news is the announcement 2 days ago from PayPal that it is about to accept payments to sellers in Bitcoin, allow account withdrawals in BTC, and allow hodling in BTC. 

 

PayPal has 376 million members and 22 million sellers on its books. This announcement is HUGE.

 

Bitcoin is increasingly going mainstream.  Michael Saylor's purchases of Bitcoin, totalling $ 400mn, have opened the eyes of Wall Street and others.  As head of a listed company, is reasoning is clear and very sound. A listed UK company has just committed 10% of its treasury to Bitcoin and other crypto's.

 

The smart money is about to start flooding in to BTC. With a finite supply, as opposed to gold, for example, there is only one long-term direction for the pre-eminent crypto.

 

Any portfolio worthy of the name should include stocks, bonds, etf's, gold, silver, and Bitcoin. In the long term, however, Bitcoin will outperform the rest, which it has done over the past 10 years.

BTC has one major weak point: it can be outlawed any time by any government. 

 

For the time being, it is not a real inconvenient for the banking system, considering its very limited usage, but this could change if BTC became mainstream. 

 

Gold is not finite (for now), but it is limited (around 2% increase of the global stock every year), and it can't be made to disappear with a switch. 

 

In the end, as you say, diversification is probably the best way to go... 

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

I'm cash plus P to P lending. Pulled everything out of the sharemarket before the Saudis and Russians had an oil price war.

Staying out until I can see some value in what I am buying. Price: earnings ratios are ridiculous.

 

I've got P2P in my portfolio......just worried that they are doing so well.....6.8% and 5.2%.......it is unnerving.

[allanos]

33 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

BTC has one major weak point: it can be outlawed any time by any government. 

 

For the time being, it is not a real inconvenient for the banking system, considering its very limited usage, but this could change if BTC became mainstream. 

 

Gold is not finite (for now), but it is limited (around 2% increase of the global stock every year), and it can't be made to disappear with a switch. 

 

In the end, as you say, diversification is probably the best way to go... 

I am sure you are very aware of the fundamentals of Bitcoin.  One of the foremost of these is that it is decentralised, and is owned and stored throughout the world.  How can it be banned and who is going to ban it?  And, because it is "faceless and anonymous", banning will have not effect. It will remain a store of value and a cheap and instantaneous method of transmitting funds around the globe. Millions of dollars can be moved for a cost of a few cents!

 

Furthermore, I am encouraged that quoted companies are beginning to buy it, or support it. The move by PayPal into crypto is earth-shattering, in its far-reaching possibilities for Bitcoin.  And we mustn't think they have done it in a vacuum.  No doubt, they have consulted central banks, in the US and elsewhere, before making such an innovative decision.

 

No, I cannot see that there can be any banning measures applied to Bitcoin, for the reasons I mention above.  Possibly there will be an attempt at some kind of regulation in future, but that's not the same thing at all.

[CorpusChristie]

2 hours ago, Lacessit said:

I'm cash plus P to P lending.

 

 

    Do you have a link to the website ?

[Lacessit]

51 minutes ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    Do you have a link to the website ?

There is Ratesetter in the UK and Plenti in Australia. Others operate in the US, I don't know what they are.

Just Google peer-to-peer lending for your nationality.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Lacessit

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

I've got P2P in my portfolio......just worried that they are doing so well.....6.8% and 5.2%.......it is unnerving.

Same here; however, not unnerved. I limit individual exposure to $500, that's the most I can lose on a single investment. Plenti in Australia has a capital reserve to compensate investors for defaults, AFAIK it has never been used.

1-2% is what the banks are paying depositors, but it sure as hell isn't what they charge borrowers.

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, allanos said:

I am sure you are very aware of the fundamentals of Bitcoin.  One of the foremost of these is that it is decentralised, and is owned and stored throughout the world.  How can it be banned and who is going to ban it?  And, because it is "faceless and anonymous", banning will have not effect. It will remain a store of value and a cheap and instantaneous method of transmitting funds around the globe. Millions of dollars can be moved for a cost of a few cents!

 

Furthermore, I am encouraged that quoted companies are beginning to buy it, or support it. The move by PayPal into crypto is earth-shattering, in its far-reaching possibilities for Bitcoin.  And we mustn't think they have done it in a vacuum.  No doubt, they have consulted central banks, in the US and elsewhere, before making such an innovative decision.

 

No, I cannot see that there can be any banning measures applied to Bitcoin, for the reasons I mention above.  Possibly there will be an attempt at some kind of regulation in future, but that's not the same thing at all.

The US managed to ban private ownership of gold for decades, and it's probably more difficult to implement such a ban than the one of a virtual currency.

 

Central banks and/or governments could go after those who accept payments in BTC, in the same way that they go after those who make business with Iran, for example.

 

When it comes to restrict freedom, you can't count on them for being creative and efficient...

[Airalee]

3 hours ago, allanos said:

How can it be banned and who is going to ban it?  And, because it is "faceless and anonymous", banning will have not effect.

Well...the IRS has already started taxing people on it.

 

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/virtual-currencies

 

How will it be “faceless and anonymous” when you buy something online using bitcoin.  Will you have the package shipped to ...

 

Anonymous

123 Anystreet

Secret Location, USA

 

?

 

Your bitcoin isn’t anonymous.  

 

[rwill]

Stay in.  If it falls buy more. 

[yogavnture]

On 10/22/2020 at 9:01 PM, chicowoodduck said:

Good Lord, sober up!  And get off of your meds! ????????????

 

You must be the guy who tells everyone to invest in Bitcoin as well?

 

 

im too drunk on viagra. and i eat bitcoins

[Surelynot]

18 hours ago, CorpusChristie said:

 

    Do you have a link to the website ?

I would avoid Ratesetter, at least for the moment. People seem to be irate that they are struggling to withdraw funds. It might be they don't understand their money is already invested, or, if it is cash on account they are trying to access, Ratesetter is messing them about.

 

I use LendInvest....bridging loans..... and FundingCircle....small businesses loans.

[Lacessit]

4 hours ago, Surelynot said:

I would avoid Ratesetter, at least for the moment. People seem to be irate that they are struggling to withdraw funds. It might be they don't understand their money is already invested, or, if it is cash on account they are trying to access, Ratesetter is messing them about.

 

I use LendInvest....bridging loans..... and FundingCircle....small businesses loans.

That may be the case in the UK, the Australian arm seems to have no problem with cash withdrawals. It has renamed itself Plenti. It's also listing on the ASX, can't say if that's good or bad.

 

[Alex2554]

[billaaa777]

If the market has already adjusted on the assumption that Biden will win, then if Trump wins we will probably see a big bump. But as mentioned earlier, the trillions of dollars we have spent on bail outs it’s got to have an impact on the economy. But frequently the economy looks at future trends and doesn’t look in the past. If a vaccine is developed, and no terrible side effects from it, and tourism returns, then we should see growth again.

 

Great post! You know the market.

[billaaa777]

Quote

 

Good Lord, sober up!  And get off of your meds! ????????????

 

You must be the guy who tells everyone to invest in Bitcoin as well?

 

 

If you don't like what I said, explain why and don't just insult me. By the way, I have huge bucks betting on the assumption I posted. I know you don't have anything, or very little or you understand what a stupid comment you just made!

[MadMuhammad]

23 hours ago, Alex2554 said: