9 hours ago, colinneil said:

So the financial experts say only 8 million tourists next year, hang on a minute T.A.T. says there will be 11 million Chinese tourists, so who is correct?

Clearly they never got their heads together before making their respective announcements.

Both numbers coming out the <deleted>.  There needs to be a few hundred thousand guinea pigs then demand may accelerate but the Chinese will be looking at social media trip reports more than ever.    Amd the odds of a virus outbreak that hits the e brake on things is very high INHO. 

All this downtime hasTAT been looking at the things Thailand needs to work on.  Any tourist operator training been taking place?  And changes to laws making penalties  more harsh for treating tourists poorly. 

My list.

Some campaign  warning taxis  no pick up complaints 3 times will be jail time and permanent ban. 

Hit a person  in a crosswalk and mandatory year in jail.  

Jet ski scams equals jail time.

Dual restaurant pricing and we close you down for a week.

Police in Thailand won't take  payments ever if they ask please get badge number and call 8311 for reward. 

Please expand on what I'm missing

speechless... no one is coming as every other country is shut.

Seems to me the COVID19 lockdown/glbal economic reset  is only getting more severe so these guys are wildly off base if you ask me. I'd say more like they'll be lucky to get 80,000 and certainly no more if they don't remove quarantine as some other travel worthy destinations like Brazil, Serbia, Macedonia, Turkey, Mexico have.

But how  they  know this ... they  not even wear  hats  ??

Which  hat they pull these  figures   from anyway  .....Or  maybe they all had the  same  dream ....

Good  Luck Thailand 

If  - and I say if  - this is true , and the banks are quoting tourism is 20% of GDP - Thailand is looking at severe financial hardship very, very soon. Losing at least 16% of your GDP due to tourism madness is unsustainable economically for years on end. Unemployment in the UK may go up to 9-10%, but Thailand on these figures must be hitting 20% up soon

I'd say it's impossible to predict at this point, but even this estimate looks optimistic to me.

10 hours ago, colinneil said:

So the financial experts say only 8 million tourists next year, hang on a minute T.A.T. says there will be 11 million Chinese tourists, so who is correct?

Clearly they never got their heads together before making their respective announcements.

11 Million Asians - 8 Million foreign tourists = 3 Million non-foreign Asians = 3 Million Thai tourists. 

wishfull thinking as airlines coulnt move that ammount i doubt from US and the west

12 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

wishfull thinking as airlines coulnt move that ammount i doubt from US and the west

Wont be from the US/west. They'll still be in the throes of a pandemic come April, I estimate..

The way it stands now with flight, covid insurance and quarantine I’m figuring $3-$4,000 to get back in Thailand.  Probably not acceptable for many.  That is with cheapest flight 

That are too many variables to predict right now with any amount of certainty.

10 hours ago, Forza2002 said:

It's not that long ago 10M visitors was the norm and that was considered high, lol.... https://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism.asp

Going back nearly 15 to 20 years.. what was the average living standard for the population then. Great for expats on foreign contracts with housing etc.. Not so much for the people in general.

 

11 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Tricky one...who to believe?.....TAT or financial experts.....I know who my money would be on.

Neither!

They ******* wish!!!!!

5 hours ago, Cali farong said:

The way it stands now with flight, covid insurance and quarantine I’m figuring $3-$4,000 to get back in Thailand.  Probably not acceptable for many.  That is with cheapest flight 

 

Corect, and why should I pay that crazy money to get back to a closed down Thailand when in my town in Sweden there are lots of Thai girls that you bonk for almost the same price as in Thailand and hundreds of Thai restaurants selling the same food and no facemasks needed.

I like listening to the ravings of this government, always good for a laugh.

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That's getting back to when Thailand was a joy to visit. Wish I could be one of the 8 million. It would be fantastic and I might get treated well, for a change.

People look on it as a bad thing, but I think it's an opportunity to turn LOS around and make it a destination worth visiting, which it wasn't, IMO, before corona.

Had I visited in 2019 for the first time it'd probably be the only time.

 

How don't you get treated?

Is it you no longer get your butt kissed and aren't considered special any more?

 

I have been going to Thailand for over 18 years, I never gave a <deleted> about the phony sucking up to tourists.

I don't need to feel special

 

I don't feel I am treated any worse or better than I was 18 years ago....

How can they possibly know that....

14 hours ago, Virt said:

 

I don't get this Thailand is ruined and so. It's still a great place to visit. 

Sure it changed, but all places changed worldwide since mass tourism started. 

 

I however met a lot of old timers sitting in the bars complain about how things changed, everything is to expensive and so on and bloody tourists ruined the country. 

 

Don't they realize that they too are tourists that started the problem....we're all part of that.....

Thailand change because we travel there. 

 

Been to Thailand 12 times and had great vacations and will continue to visit when this Corona chaos is over.

 

I hope to be one of those 8 millions so I can get back to Samui in July. 

 

 

The only ones who complain are the ones who went to Thailand to feel special for once in their life.

17 hours ago, colinneil said:

So the financial experts say only 8 million tourists next year, hang on a minute T.A.T. says there will be 11 million Chinese tourists, so who is correct?

Clearly they never got their heads together before making their respective announcements.

From looking at the picture of the financial experts, they look very Chinese to me. 

Bingo, that's why they cannot predict the European numbers. 

Obvious that the only beneficiary's from tourists entering Thailand will be Chinese owned venues, local Thai will get Zilch. 

Well of course if you won't open the borders even less than that....dah!!!!!!

17 hours ago, BritManToo said:

this thread is clearly about foreign tourists.

The rich chinese or the dirty farangs?  or grandpas?  is TAT not aware of all the sick buffaloes????  ????

16 hours ago, BritManToo said:

 

Thailand is a nation run by people who never had to work or think for themselves.

Sounds like America..as of the last 4 yrs at least

16 hours ago, steven100 said:

Burmese truck drivers don't have much money, and I've never seen one outside my 7-11 swinging on a bottle of Chang

 

 

They prefer the red bull and energy drinks to get those hauls delivered on time....thai bus drivers too....

10 hours ago, nchuckle said:

I predict a riot .. ???????? 

beat me to it....kaiser chiefs!

its a good topic, because it quantify revenue losses,

if this guess is right, the drop is 1.5 trillion baht.

i havnt run into beggars for the past 15 years in thailand, but now i do

I honestly don't understand the logic behind having a holiday in Thailand. People work for 12 months to have 1 month holiday in  most Western countries. If you spend a lot of money on air fare , insurance for all those things demanded by Thai government processing your STV and then spend 2 weeks time and money in isolation to help to recover country in recession and possibly be ok to get out and have freedom for 2 weeks with restrictions. Is it  really worth it?

Wait until they ease restrictions and get rid off isolation but have regular check ups.  Also stop offending all those Thailand lovers. Because they will find another Thailand if they having found one already to spend their holidays. Relying on Chinese is the biggest mistake and some other  countries made that mistake are really suffering. Their countries can not survive without China. How sad for the country I have been living in for 15 years.

23 hours ago, sezze said:

It is all just guessing numbers . Nobody knows , since maybe beofre the end of this year , the 1st vaccine might be there . It will take long time to get it distributed , and given to enough people , but if everything goes good , might be that the quarantine can go away , the rules can be set a whole lot lower , and possible to get more people in . If this takes another year , and rules stay the same , 8 million is just dreaming .

So it is just not known by any means ...

Thai gov have there way only Chinese lol. Prayut is the problem. Period 

We are all in uncharted territory. At this point, finger pointing is not helpful. As we turn the corner of what is the future , I feel the old dogmas that defined our identities ( ego ) should be as much as possible, laid to rest.

easer said than done. The Asian & Anglo Saxon cultures can produce significant gains when aligned to a common goal.
 

That time is now.

 

 

I'd guess about 8000 - the rest of those desperate enough to jump through the hoops and willing to be treated like  a prisoner, complete with a GPS tracker. Real tourists - zero.