Are Trump's rallies spreading coronavirus? Why it's hard to know the full impact

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Significant? How significant? Is that a feeling or something more solidly based in fact? I think that there is a segment that's bound to say this, less sure if it's significant numbers-wise, and even less so when it comes to actually going through with action. I do agree that with regard to tone and content, things are quite out there relative to past elections.

I see your point. It's not a significant percentage. But even one percent of all the 45 fans (as most of them have guns) will be a major problem if they follow through. 

[Morch]

8 hours ago, Jaybott said:

No.  The ones where 5 or 6 people show up.

 

And lets not forget about the Hollywood Elite (will be referred to as the Hollywood Aristocracy under a Harris-Biden administration):

 

Undeterred by an ongoing pandemic, Kim Kardashian West has revealed she threw a party for herself and dozens of friends on a private island that swapped social distancing for dancing, bike-riding and swimming with whales. 

 

 

 

As far as I'm aware Kim Kardashian did not endorse Biden's candidacy, not Trump, and not much even her own husband's (remember that...?). That you automatically co-opt her to support your argument is about as serious as labeling her 'Hollywood Elite', or making bogus claims about 'aristocracy'.

[Morch]

9 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I see your point. It's not a significant percentage. But even one percent of all the 45 fans (as most of them have guns) will be a major problem if they follow through. 

 

In most countries where you see insurgence, armed resistance and organized terrorism, the actual participation levels in serious violent acts is very low. If allowing for violent protests, low level violence and such, the circle widens some.

 

1% is a lot, and probably an exaggeration. Going by the last election figures, something like 650,000 people. For comparison, active USA armed forces personnel is about 1.5 million, which would make it around 0.005 of the population.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Morch

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

In most countries where you see insurgence, armed resistance and organized terrorism, the actual participation levels in serious violent acts is very low. If allowing for violent protests, low level violence and such, the circle widens some.

 

1% is a lot, and probably an exaggeration. Going by the last election figures, something like 650,000 people. For comparison, active USA armed forces personnel is about 1.5 million, which would make it around 0.005 of the population.

I agree that it doesn't require a large percentage to create serious societal upheaval.

[Walker88]

2 hours ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

This 'everything Trump does is bad' line of thinking is getting pretty tiresome. The mainstream media have become a complete joke. I think Trumps a bit of a **** but, man.....I cannot stand theses lefty cry babies. If he wins again the dummy spit will be monumental. I will find it quite amusing. I cannot for the life of me see how people are getting all excited to go out and vote for Biden/Harris. I wont be surprised to wake up Thursday to see bearded women with blue hair screaming at the top of their lungs.............again.

I have never seen anyone, not even a six month old baby with colic, who whines as much as 45.

[placeholder]

36 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

As far as I'm aware Kim Kardashian did not endorse Biden's candidacy, not Trump, and not much even her own husband's (remember that...?). That you automatically co-opt her to support your argument is about as serious as labeling her 'Hollywood Elite', or making bogus claims about 'aristocracy'.

If you wanted to bother, and why should you, you could certainly cite many examples of the "Hollywood Elite" who are observing social distancing. Apparently, some people believe that cherry picking is a valid way to gather evidence and come to conclusions.

[Morch]

39 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I agree that it doesn't require a large percentage to create serious societal upheaval.

 

Goes back to what counts as a 'significant' number.  I don't think that, when push comes to shove, it will actually come to that (except, maybe, for some relatively isolated cases). Because it's not just about the numbers - you need the organizational infrastructure, the popular support, and for the other side to be either weak or stupid in order to be effective early on. But anyway, even a bit of that is already out of top, out of bounds, as far as US politics go. The fact that this is even being discussed is, by itself, troubling. 

[MajarTheLion]

According to the experts, the virus does not spread at Antifa and BLM riots.

 

 

But we are told that the virus does spread at Trump rallies.

 

 

Logically, it does not make sense to any rational person. This departure from common sense it illustrative of why many people are suspicious of what the *experts* tell us.

 

 

[MajarTheLion]

3 hours ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

This 'everything Trump does is bad' line of thinking is getting pretty tiresome. The mainstream media have become a complete joke. I think Trumps a bit of a **** but, man.....I cannot stand theses lefty cry babies. If he wins again the dummy spit will be monumental. I will find it quite amusing. I cannot for the life of me see how people are getting all excited to go out and vote for Biden/Harris. I wont be surprised to wake up Thursday to see bearded women with blue hair screaming at the top of their lungs.............again.

You make a fair point. However, I would argue that a very small number of people are excited to vote for Biden/Harris. They simply hate Trump. It is an important distinction to make, IMHO. I believe that the enthusiasm gap Biden/Harris suffer from translates to less votes for them, while the high enthusiasm for Trump translates to more votes.

 

And obviously, anyone following campaign events can see the difference in crowd sizes at both candidates' rallies. And we haven't even gotten into the massive parade of people and vehicles for Trump, even in places like Beverly Hills!

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, MajarTheLion said:

According to the experts, the virus does not spread at Antifa and BLM riots.

 

 

But we are told that the virus does spread at Trump rallies.

 

 

Logically, it does not make sense to any rational person. This departure from common sense it illustrative of why many people are suspicious of what the *experts* tell us.

 

 

 

In the upper picture, most people seem to be wearing a mask. In the lower picture, not so much.

Trump is the President. By his (or his campaign's) claims, the President of Law and Order. Yet somehow, his rallies often violate the the regulation his own administrations prescribes, states and local laws. The BLM protestors are often (rightly or not) referred to as 'anarchists'. That you hold both to the same standard is amusing, and sad.

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, MajarTheLion said:

According to the experts, the virus does not spread at Antifa and BLM riots.

 

 

But we are told that the virus does spread at Trump rallies.

 

 

Logically, it does not make sense to any rational person. This departure from common sense it illustrative of why many people are suspicious of what the *experts* tell us.

 

 

The experts also tell us that masks are as powerful as a vaccine. Which may help explain why Trump rallies tend to be a lot more likely to spread the virus than do BLM and similar demonstrations.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

 

It makes total sense when you consider the source is the US Liberal biased media, or the new Pravda.  LOL

Actually I think it's the virologists and epidemiologists who are the real villains here. The liberal media is just reporting what those socialists are saying. Like the virus was going to resurge in the autumn. Obvious fear-mongering.

[MajarTheLion]

13 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

In the upper picture, most people seem to be wearing a mask. In the lower picture, not so much.

Trump is the President. By his (or his campaign's) claims, the President of Law and Order. Yet somehow, his rallies often violate the the regulation his own administrations prescribes, states and local laws. The BLM protestors are often (rightly or not) referred to as 'anarchists'. That you hold both to the same standard is amusing, and sad.

 

Interesting reply. In both photographs, I see people crowded together. There are people with no masks in the Antifa/BLM shot. There are more people with no masks in the Trump shot. In both photos, people are packed together. Therefore, in order to conclude that the virus spreads in only one type of crowd, one would have to admit that rules on social distancing (which is really PHYSICAL distancing) by six feet are ineffective. If you are ready to admit "social distancing" guidelines are unnecessary and provide no benefit, I think we can move on with debating other aspects.

[Scott]

Troll post reported and removed.

 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, MajarTheLion said:

 

Interesting reply. In both photographs, I see people crowded together. There are people with no masks in the Antifa/BLM shot. There are more people with no masks in the Trump shot. In both photos, people are packed together. Therefore, in order to conclude that the virus spreads in only one type of crowd, one would have to admit that rules on social distancing (which is really PHYSICAL distancing) by six feet are ineffective. If you are ready to admit "social distancing" guidelines are unnecessary and provide no benefit, I think we can move on with debating other aspects.

Sure. That's like saying if you are ill and a doctor give you 2 kinds of medicine, only one of them is really effective.  Ya believe that? Each precaution helps. What's more, as the evidence comes in, the consensus on the effectiveness of masks keeps increasing. Masks are a very powerful way to stop the spread of infection.

[placeholder]

 

6 minutes ago, MajarTheLion said:

 

Interesting reply. In both photographs, I see people crowded together. There are people with no masks in the Antifa/BLM shot. There are more people with no masks in the Trump shot. In both photos, people are packed together. Therefore, in order to conclude that the virus spreads in only one type of crowd, one would have to admit that rules on social distancing (which is really PHYSICAL distancing) by six feet are ineffective. If you are ready to admit "social distancing" guidelines are unnecessary and provide no benefit, I think we can move on with debating other aspects.

Pretty weak attempt at playing down the difference in mask wearing in the 2 crowds. In fact, for what it's worth, there are very very few people in the BLM demonstration not wearing masks. Whereas in the Trump gathering, almost no one is wearing a mask. I guess the question is who am I to believe, you or my lying eyes?

[Neeranam]

13 hours ago, newnative said:

     The dangerous, irresponsible, selfish, Covid-spreading rallies are probably the very best example of whom Trump is always thinking about.  Whom Trump always cares about.  Whom Trump is always  interested in.  Whom Trump is always working for.  Whom Trump always wants to help.  The answer is himself.  And only himself.  Period.  

The greatest personal value in the US is freedom. Freedom to bear guns and not wear masks. Very different to Thailand. Full stop.

[jcsmith]

A study of 18 Trump rallies between June and September 22nd concluded that they resulted in 30,000 Covid cases and over 700 deaths. 

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523789-18-trump-rallies-have-led-to-30k-cases-700-deaths-stanford-university

[Tie Dye Samurai]

4 hours ago, bodga said:

Its for show only, they are often at half mast, they are often absent  outside of malls, they are probably  worn for days  on end their hands are all over their  faces. Sit  down sometime and observe the hygiene, its pretty grim.

And yet with all of that it is still far better than anything going on in the States....

[Scott]

Troll posts and posts with misinformation have been removed.  

 

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

The greatest personal value in the US is freedom. Freedom to bear guns and not wear masks. Very different to Thailand. Full stop.

And freedom to endanger others. Whether it's by not wearing masks or firing off guns whenever and wherever you please!!!

[stevenl]

6 hours ago, Neeranam said:

The greatest personal value in the US is freedom. Freedom to bear guns and not wear masks. Very different to Thailand. Full stop.

How about my right to be protected from anti social crazies? Isn't one of the tasks of government to provide safety to its citizens?

[newnative]

8 hours ago, Neeranam said:

The greatest personal value in the US is freedom. Freedom to bear guns and not wear masks. Very different to Thailand. Full stop.

       I'm all for personal freedom--as long as it doesn't do harm to someone else.  Freedom of speech?  Yes. Freedom of speech to libel and slander?  No.  Freedom of speech to assemble thousands of unprotected people close together with a pandemic raging?  No.  

     Of course, the most damning thing here, bordering on criminal (crossing over in my mind), is that these are the selfish, uncaring actions of a President, not a local pastor defying an order and holding a church service.  You would expect a good President to be fully engaged in fighting the pandemic by any means possible, including temporarily curtailing some freedoms for the good of all.   Instead, we have a President guilty of reckless endangerment of many for the good of just himself.  

     We've had ample evidence since the Spring that, with this pandemic, bringing large groups of unprotected people together will cause the virus to spread, leading to people getting sick and some dying.  For a President to know this, and then continue to hold large close quarter rallies, is, to me, beyond the pale.  Full stop.  

[Tounge Thaied]

Clearly the "Russians did it" has become yet again a tired old platitude for yet another generation. Prediction: it will now be the "Anti-Vac... Umm... I mean, It's now the "Anti-Maskers" that are ruining the world. Soon to be supported by the tin foil hat brigade the "Anti-Vaxxers". Always needs to be a boogeyman... 

War is Peace

Freedom is Slavery

Ignore... ance is strength

[placeholder]

13 minutes ago, Tounge Thaied said:

Clearly the "Russians did it" has become yet again a tired old platitude for yet another generation. Prediction: it will now be the "Anti-Vac... Umm... I mean, It's now the "Anti-Maskers" that are ruining the world. Soon to be supported by the tin foil hat brigade the "Anti-Vaxxers". Always needs to be a boogeyman... 

War is Peace

Freedom is Slavery

Ignore... ance is strength

Must be nice to feel free to make things up. No one is blaming the anti-maskers for everythinig. Just for helping to spread the coronavirus. And it's epidemiologist and virologists who are endorsing that. Most likely anti-vaxxers are anti-maskers, too since they like anti maskers believe vaccinations are based on lies and government conspiracies.

[Tounge Thaied]

34 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Must be nice to feel free to make things up.

I do occasionally predict the future. It's like flipping a coin in the left vs right paradigm we have going right now... your guaranteed to be right at least 50% of the time. ????

[MajarTheLion]

5 hours ago, stevenl said:

How about my right to be protected from anti social crazies? Isn't one of the tasks of government to provide safety to its citizens?

In the US, many of us value freedom over being protected from "anti-social crazies". The problem with that is, who decides who the "anti-social crazies" are?

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Tounge Thaied said:

I do occasionally predict the future. It's like flipping a coin in the left vs right paradigm we have going right now... your guaranteed to be right at least 50% of the time. ????

So there's no such things as odds, huh? Tell that to the bookies.

[Lacessit]

16 hours ago, MajarTheLion said:

According to the experts, the virus does not spread at Antifa and BLM riots.

 

 

But we are told that the virus does spread at Trump rallies.

 

 

Logically, it does not make sense to any rational person. This departure from common sense it illustrative of why many people are suspicious of what the *experts* tell us.

 

 

It would make more sense if observation was employed. The BLM supporters seem to be mostly wearing masks. The Trump supporters mostly are not, following the example of their cured idol. Or is that in remission? It has not occurred to them they won't be getting the same world-class, taxpayer funded treatment he did if they get sick.

If you want to claim masks are ineffective, they seem to work just fine in many Asian countries. The numbers do tell the story.

[sucit]

"Bernheim said in an email the work relies on statistical methods to infer causation after an event has occurred." 

 

In other words, "we know nothing, but just decided we'd spew out some nonsense anyway". I wonder if their statistical method was about as good as the one from Fergueson who got us in this mess. 

 

Same as everyone else in the world nowadays, deciding upon your facts based on political affiliations. Again, this is what got us into this mess in the first place.