SURVEY: How long before tourism returns to normal?

[Don Chance]

Tourism will return to normal when everyone is vaccinated. All Thai's and anyone entering Thailand.

 

Thailand can manufacture vaccines too. So it could be by the end of 2021. It might take 6 months to vaccinate all of Thai people 70 million.

[Pilotman]

26 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

A couple of days ago there was an article about the maintenance they needed. You don't scrap airplanes when they are still good, you are talking absolute nonsense.

haha, good one. 

https://theloadstar.com/as-more-aircraft-are-scrapped-we-must-aim-to-recycle-every-part-of-them/

 

https://flyinginireland.com/2020/02/up-to-four-airbus-a380s-to-be-scrapped-in-knock/

https://news.sky.com/story/british-airways-scrapping-entire-747-fleet-amid-coronavirus-downturn-12030266

 

I could go on, but there is really no point . 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Pilotman

[Blumpie]

Back to normal?

Oh five plus years from right now.  

Believe it or not, Thailand is not high on everyone's list for places to vacation.  And much will have to do with how safe it is, how safe the hospitals are, how much of the population is immunized, not to mention competition.  

There are wild cards.  IF Thailand can be very safe and China gets it's citizens immunized it could be a little sooner.  Thailand would be inundated by Chinese.  I know the expats who all love China will love this part of it.  ????

 

To say that anyone knows, myself included, is completely impossible to state.  Too much is changing too fast.  

 

Ten years?  That's more probable.  

 

Tourism has nothing to do with a very small portion of pot bellied beer drinkers who lounge for months at a time to get away from the cold.  Tourism in Thailand is what it is - a two week holiday.  Those are where the numbers are.

[Nout]

18 hours ago, Scott said:

With a  vaccine on the horizon, how long before tourist numbers return to normal levels?  Please feel free to leave a comment, including any restrictions you think that Thailand  may put on tourists in the short term.

 

Never. Those days are gone

[Albert Zweistein]

11 hours ago, internationalism said:

it would never be the same "normal" tourism from the previous years.

there would be travel certificates, confirming recent vaccination, negative test.

Each country might require their own certified vaccination, and not one of many hundreds, which will appear on the market soon.

So consulates will be handling vaccinations.

As majority of airlines will get bankrupt, scaled down, flying once every week, there would be less competition and airfare sore, beyond budget traveller means. So the majority would be short regional travel, not intercontinental one. For Thailand it will mean growing Chinese, Indian and possible Russian tourism, on top of steady Korean, Japanese.

Intercontinental travel would not be for 2-3 weeks, but 2-3 months would make financial sense.

 

 

Possible Russians ? Wladiwostok - BKK is an 8 hour flight. Not intercontinental ?

[rott]

5 hours ago, Ireland32 said:

Breakout in Samui  Prakan they Dis avidoe of whole area 600+ plus in e Buriram one BKK they shores a video of packerd SPrakana out of thousands I saw on Thai with mask , geezus

Give it up and go to bed. 

And for the record it's 26 not 32 

[Cobra666]

Not in a million years will I sit next to an anti-vaxer on a plane with no vaccination proof visible.

[talahtnut]

The old normal numbers of tourists was too high, the Thais wont have such high numbers of tourists

again. There will be continual restrictions. For me it will be Grimsby or bust next year.

[Straight8]

There should have been an option for  "These surveys are useless, like anyone here knows" !!!

[FritsSikkink]

7 hours ago, Pilotman said:

haha, good one. 

https://theloadstar.com/as-more-aircraft-are-scrapped-we-must-aim-to-recycle-every-part-of-them/

 

https://flyinginireland.com/2020/02/up-to-four-airbus-a380s-to-be-scrapped-in-knock/

https://news.sky.com/story/british-airways-scrapping-entire-747-fleet-amid-coronavirus-downturn-12030266

 

I could go on, but there is really no point . 

These are old planes which would be retired soon anyway, it is not cost effective to keep them. Newer planes won't be scrapped. You don't have any sense of economics.

[Blumpie]

2 hours ago, Cobra666 said:

Not in a million years will I sit next to an anti-vaxer on a plane with no vaccination proof visible.

Not a chance in hell Thailand or any other country will have them.

They can sit at home, rot, and blather about how the world is so unfair.

[Lacessit]

The cost of air travel will double or triple, therefore mass tourism is dead until competition is restored.

[internationalism]

6 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Possible Russians ? Wladiwostok - BKK is an 8 hour flight. Not intercontinental ?

same dystans, as from japan or little further than korea. Some 4500km.

if flights from europe are 10h, so from those asian countries some 5h. Not intercontinental.

russians were coming in mass 1.5mln per year on charter  flights organised by travel agencies

[Cobra666]

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

Not a chance in hell Thailand or any other country will have them.

They can sit at home, rot, and blather about how the world is so unfair.

I would not mind sending them to camps, they will pose a threat no matter where they are. Perhaps just deny them access to supermarkets and starve them to death. We must fight this virus with everything we got!!!

[mr mr]

12 hours ago, greenhornfarang said:

what is the point of living anymore ????

 

come on man. do you need a hug ? better yet i just made up a nice big jug of kool-aid.....wanna come over and have a drink with me ? 

[mr mr]

1 hour ago, Cobra666 said:

I would not mind sending them to camps, they will pose a threat no matter where they are. Perhaps just deny them access to supermarkets and starve them to death. We must fight this virus with everything we got!!!

 

woah easy there comrade pot. 

[Pilotman]

4 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

These are old planes which would be retired soon anyway, it is not cost effective to keep them. Newer planes won't be scrapped. You don't have any sense of economics.

Oh dear.  'There are none so blind as those that will not see' (or hear).  We were speculating on the number of aircraft flying  globally and  therefore the reduced number of tourism seats available in the near future , not the age of jets. You are missing the point entirely.  By the way, the A380s are far from old, they are in the middle of their life, or were. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Pilotman

[FritsSikkink]

50 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

Oh dear.  'There are none so blind as those that will not see' (or hear).  We were speculating on the number of aircraft flying  globally and  therefore the reduced number of tourism seats available in the near future , not the age of jets. You are missing the point entirely.  By the way, the A380s are far from old, they are in the middle of their life, or were. 

Done, talking with you, my 8 year old understands it better.

[NoshowJones]

21 hours ago, Seeall said:

Question and all replies a load of hot air.... nobody knows...  remember Trump saying it will all be over for easter?  ha ha .. just blah blah..

It's true, nobody knows, but this topic is only an opinion, so why the blah blahs?

[vandeventer]

Ask China how long it will take, they seem to have all the answers!

[scorecard]

21 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

Decade?

 

But I suspect there will be ongoing new requirements to quote vaccine certificate numbers, show the certificate at check-in or boarding and show the certificate at passport check on arrival.

 

Maybe also at some destinations (maybe including Thailand) a very rapid Covid 19 test at departure and/or arrival point, and cannot board / cannot deplane until negative result seen. 

 

Quarantine; maybe it will continue in some destinations for quite a while, how many days unknown.

 

In other words there will be a new normal.

 

 

Plus I hope in the longer-term bigger picture is the step by step improvement in vaccines. 

[Neeranam]

22 hours ago, Seeall said:

Question and all replies a load of hot air.... nobody knows...  remember Trump saying it will all be over for easter?  ha ha .. just blah blah..

What does Trump know about Thai tourism? 

[Neeranam]

34 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

Ask China how long it will take, they seem to have all the answers!

I have a few online students in Wuhan; they all went back to work months ago and things are back to normal there. 

[ballpoint]

2 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

What does Trump know about Thai tourism? 

Nothing.  He knows all about thigh tourism though.

[seancbk]

They will eventually vaccinate enough people that flying between countries will become possible for the vaccinated without quarantine. 

Then in 3 to 5 years a new virus will appear, possibly one that is worse, high likely one that the vaccine doesn't protect against and we'll start this all over again. 

Things have changed in the natural world and viruses are getting stronger.  Don't forget also that the protection we've all come to expect from antibiotics for dealing with bacteria is also dwindling, so a bacterial based pandemic would be bad too.
 

[Seeall]

5 hours ago, Neeranam said:

What does Trump know about Thai tourism? 

Its just an example of how you dont know anything about how long the peice of string is.....

[Artisi]

Question 3 should be "might" return. 

[ICELANDMAN]

Never, because so it was decided that we will travel by electric car and live in smart cities and thus we will save the world perhaps from pollution and therefore the planes and ships will have to reconvert and it will take at least 20 years to modify our entire transport system, in all this time the whole tourism system will be changed into local tourism and not continental or international for mass tourism, the most important part will also be the conversion of international freight transport which will constantly decrease. Everything has been decided for a long time but we no longer know how to listen to what has been said and repeated many times, the green economy. Thailand like many other countries have fallen asleep on their laurels and the awakening will be abrupt.

[jvs]

On 12/20/2020 at 4:25 PM, Kelsall said:

Interesting poll.  On May 31, I predicted Thailand would return to quarantineless entry in "2-3 years" (see below) and received a lot of laughter from the low IQ crowd.  One of those went so far as to say my prediction was so crazy it would not even be an outlier.  This poll indicates 85% feel we will return to normal tourism in 2 years or more.  Are we all crazy?  No.  Thailand will return to normal tourism in about 2 years, as the vast majority of us believe.

 

 

 

You have also predicted others things,not going to happen so you could be wrong here also.

[greenhornfarang]

10 hours ago, mr mr said:

 

come on man. do you need a hug ? better yet i just made up a nice big jug of kool-aid.....wanna come over and have a drink with me ? 

 

Is it grape flavour with an extra table spoon of sugar like my mommy makes for me???