Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

 

 

Thailand could see 18,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by Jan 14, according to Dr Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA).

 

In his daily media briefing Dr Taweesilp shared some projections of how COVID-19 cases could soar in a matter of weeks without the necessary control measures being adhered to.

 

Dr Taweesilp gave three projections, with the worst case scenario being 18,000 daily new cases by January 14th.

 

This would only happen without any control measures in place in order to contain the spread of the virus.

 

Thailand would see 8,000 daily new COVID-19 cases even with moderate control measures, while 1,000 new daily new cases even with intensified control measures, similar to those implemented earlier in the year.

 

According to Dr Taweesil, Thailand is currently undergoing moderate control measures.

 

Based on the projections shared on Tuesday, it should be expected that daily new case numbers in Thailand look set to rise.

 

The news comes as officials in both Bangkok and Chonburi on Monday issued orders placing restrictions on entertainment venues deemed ‘high risk.

 

Meanwhile, Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health have created a new acronym to help remind people of steps they can take to help reduce the spread of the virus.

 

 

The acronym is DMHTT:

 

D - Distancing 

M - Mask Wearing 

H - Hand washing 

T - Testing 

T - Thai Cha-na

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-12-29

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

 

Could they specify "control measures"?

1 minute ago, samtam said:

Could they specify "control measures"?

Yes, Thailand government officials to do as they please and keep their heads stuck in the dirt like an ostrich 

I picture a running back, sprinting towards the end zone, tacklers yards behind him, just 5 yards from the goal line, throwing up his hands in anticipation of his victory dance, only to see the football go flying out of his hand and bouncing towards the opposing team.

Back in March, the government directed the response centrally on the advice of the CCSA, and as far as I'm aware they never ignored or over-ruled it. They delegated certain decisions to the provincial governors, but they usually did the least that could be expected of them, you may remember that at one stage there seemed to be a small competition between some of them as to who could impose the harshest restrictions.

 

Now they seem to have delegated everything to provincial level and sidelined the CCSA, which is presumably why we're getting all these dire forecasts from them. The CCSA has shown that it's competent and capable of handling the situation, at least in the early stages of an outbreak, so why on earth isn't Prayut listening to them any more? We need doctors and scientists leading the response, not corrupt local politicians with all their business friends pressuring them not to shut anything down.

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

Worst case scenario: 18,000 daily new COVID cases by mid January

 

 

Thailand could see 18,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by Jan 14, according to Dr Taweesilp Visanuyothin, spokesman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA).

 

In his daily media briefing Dr Taweesilp shared some projections of how COVID-19 cases could soar in a matter of weeks without the necessary control measures being adhered to.

 

Dr Taweesilp gave three projections, with the worst case scenario being 18,000 daily new cases by January 14th.

 

This would only happen without any control measures in place in order to contain the spread of the virus.

 

Thailand would see 8,000 daily new COVID-19 cases even with moderate control measures, while 1,000 new daily new cases even with intensified control measures, similar to those implemented earlier in the year.

 

According to Dr Taweesil, Thailand is currently undergoing moderate control measures.

 

Based on the projections shared on Tuesday, it should be expected that daily new case numbers in Thailand look set to rise.

 

The news comes as officials in both Bangkok and Chonburi on Monday issued orders placing restrictions on entertainment venues deemed ‘high risk.

 

Meanwhile, Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health have created a new acronym to help remind people of steps they can take to help reduce the spread of the virus.

 

 

The acronym is DMHTT:

 

D - Distancing 

M - Mask Wearing 

H - Hand washing 

T - Testing 

T - Thai Cha-na

 

-- © Copyright Thai Visa News 2020-12-29

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow Thaivisa on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

 

What is missing in my view is a total ban on travelling from one province to another. If this is not done, we are going to have situations like in the US or Europe. I believe that if such a ban and other measures like a nationwide closure of entertainment venues, possibly a night curfew and similar steps, are not imposed , we are going to have a strict nationwide total lock up, before too long.

They don’t have the capacity to test that many people per day. 

Thailand Nr 1

They just woke up and discovered that USA is still nr 1

Now the testing can begin.

Look at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in the US. It served as a Superspreader Event.

 

Last year's Lunar New Year was the original Covid-19 Superspreader Event, as traveling Chinese carried the virus to the four corners of the globe, and here we are almost a year later pushing 2 million dead and economies in shambles.

 

This coming New Year may well do the same in Thailand, with one saving grace being that, unlike Sturgis or Lunar New Year, most folks will be wearing masks and are both aware of and believe in the virus.

What a bunch of bull......This is from the same wise man doctor that said Thailand would likely see 250,000 cases by last summer.......Typical Thai scare tactic, just add a few zeros to any figure and call it worst case scenario.

At the time of writing there is no curfew in Chonburi province, I have a sneaking suspicion that that could change very soon, as @Guderian noted, left to their own devices the governors will opt for the most draconian measures they can think of, having said that, I believe that a 10pm - 5am curfew is about as much use as a chocolate teapot, it really needs to be from about 5pm - 8am to be effective, one person from each household allowed to go shopping, schools shut and stiff penalties for people not wearing masks and social distancing. 

 

The only way to stop the spread is to prevent Inter province travel and make people stay at home, as unattractive as it sounds that & mass vaccination are probably the best way to deal with this.

 

I know many will be against this approach but I personally see it as the only way forward.

23 minutes ago, dcnx said:

They don’t have the capacity to test that many people per day. 

Back in July it was reported that Thailand had 209 test centres throughout the country. Should we reach the projected level of 18,000 per day, which I very much doubt, that will average out at 82 tests per centre per day.

 

I'm sure they can cope.

 

Sorry, I can't post the reference of the source because it was in the Bangkok Post, but it's easy enough to find.

29 minutes ago, abrahamzvi said:

What is missing in my view is a total ban on travelling from one province to another.

 

That's true.

 

The virus itself doesn't travel, the people that have it do. 

 

Stop travel, the spread stops.

7 minutes ago, time2093 said:

What a bunch of bull......This is from the same wise man doctor that said Thailand would likely see 250,000 cases by last summer.......Typical Thai scare tactic, just add a few zeros to any figure and call it worst case scenario.

How do you know there wasn't? Very low testing = very low cases. I'm astounded people still think the previous numbers of infected are true and was the actual total number of infected people in Thailand. It doesn't make sense. They are now saying around 11.5% are positive. The last number of tests in Thailand I remember seeing all those months ago was in the mid 200,000's so more than likely 20,000+ positive. As I've said in another post, covid outbreak in AN AREA of Sydney. 400,000 tests in the last 2 weeks.

This makes sense: Zero tests, zero infections found. 

It was unfortunately the wrong kind of foreigners, that they kept out and quarantined.

Living in Thailand it’s sometimes very difficult to know what the truth is TIT

27 minutes ago, time2093 said:

What a bunch of bull......This is from the same wise man doctor that said Thailand would likely see 250,000 cases by last summer.......Typical Thai scare tactic, just add a few zeros to any figure and call it worst case scenario.

{ am trusting you do understand these estimates and the previous ones are done on several types of modelling of events, possible  behaviours of public, control matrix and measures and public education, and are nowhere near an exact science.

 

Why do they do this, mid Jan. is only a few weeks away? Maybe they want us to stock up on food and beer and sit around the house watching movies all day. Again we have to look at the kill rate of this virus not the infection rate. You know if they don't have anything nice to say than don't say anything at all!

7 minutes ago, vandeventer said:

Why do they do this, mid Jan. is only a few weeks away? Maybe they want us to stock up on food and beer and sit around the house watching movies all day. Again we have to look at the kill rate of this virus not the infection rate. You know if they don't have anything nice to say than don't say anything at all!

I trust you are abreast of the frequent longer term effects of infection with COVID as are experienced by many survivors across the globe, including liver and renal impairment, extreme ongoing for months fatigue, changes in  taste (food/wine/etc), cardiac impairment and many more

i am wondering what next step they are trying to justify by these sucked out of the finger numbers?

1 hour ago, Guderian said:

Back in March, the government directed the response centrally on the advice of the CCSA, and as far as I'm aware they never ignored or over-ruled it. They delegated certain decisions to the provincial governors, but they usually did the least that could be expected of them, you may remember that at one stage there seemed to be a small competition between some of them as to who could impose the harshest restrictions.

 

Now they seem to have delegated everything to provincial level and sidelined the CCSA, which is presumably why we're getting all these dire forecasts from them. The CCSA has shown that it's competent and capable of handling the situation, at least in the early stages of an outbreak, so why on earth isn't Prayut listening to them any more? We need doctors and scientists leading the response, not corrupt local politicians with all their business friends pressuring them not to shut anything down.

I like your post. But I dare suggest that, after 9 months of one of the worst economic downturns the government is taking a course that favours business at the expense of human lives. And they probably factor in somewhere the sad reality that those will die a most likely to belong to the poorer classes of the country. Many who have lost their jobs after the first lockdown might now lose their lives or their loved ones.

 

This figure does seem very unlikely, even impossible. It would require an R number of at least 5.0 to get that figure so quickly

 

Try it yourself with the Epidemic Calculator

 

https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

49 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

 

That's true.

 

The virus itself doesn't travel, the people that have it do. 

 

Stop travel, the spread stops.

Tell the bats then

I'd like to see the curfew return along with a strict lockdown.

44 minutes ago, Xonax said:

It was unfortunately the wrong kind of foreigners, that they kept out and quarantined.

I thought all foreigners are evil...... unless they are paying

DMHTT. I gotta say the acronym is kinda catchy, a marketing genius must have come up with it. I'm sure everyone will be chanting it soon at rallies to protest lockdowns.

40 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

How do you know there wasn't? Very low testing = very low cases. I'm astounded people still think the previous numbers of infected are true and was the actual total number of infected people in Thailand. It doesn't make sense. They are now saying around 11.5% are positive. The last number of tests in Thailand I remember seeing all those months ago was in the mid 200,000's so more than likely 20,000+ positive. As I've said in another post, covid outbreak in AN AREA of Sydney. 400,000 tests in the last 2 weeks.

This makes sense: Zero tests, zero infections found. 

So you think in a media frenzy country like Thailand 200,000 or even 20,000 positive cases wouldn't make any wave. Hospitals would keep a tight lid on things if they see those type of numbers visiting their ER. Fact is Thailand did do a good job containing the virus and catching it quarantine unlike the the west.

Is this the Thai equivalent of Neil Ferguson?

Nothing much happened at the beginning of the year after the first case in January, millions of Chinese tourists and the lockdown at the end of March. 
So why should it take off now. 
For some reason Asia is not being affected much by this virus and this is needs investigation. Is it climate, genetics, prior immunity or something else. It’s certainly not lockdowns. 

IMO there will be no stopping this Outbreak now.

Along with what appears to be some kind of self inflicted Death Wish upon the nation.... there is the population of Thailand to actually deal with.

And these people really dont like being told what to do, or adhere to laws.

Hang on to your Hats, its gonna be a rough ride.

And why is this going to happen ?

Because grubby Government servants in their stupidity took the bribes to allow these carriers to mingle amongst the generally unaffected population .without thought for the consequences.

Immigration police, Border patrols, Marine Department & possibly white collar workers must all have been in the mix. Heads should roll My Prayut & as they are your employees you need to GET ON IT