Death Rates in Thailand

[Neeranam]

 Does anyone have any information on the number of deaths this last year in Thailand compared to previous years? I guess it is lower than normal.

 

I'm very interested in how deadly this virus is. 

 

I don't have a TV, and have little news sources. 

 

Many of my relative in Scotland got Corona and had few symptoms yet my mother keeps telling me how there are so many dying, even young people,as she hears on the media. 

 

I got recent statistics on the number of Scottish deaths, which don't seem to agree with  what I hear from my mum, in fact this last year is not that much different from previous years. I only looked at table 3. 

https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths-registered-in-scotland?fbclid=IwAR3b4qyVCHHY5ZDm-5d0Fw60QcULZzLHb9gv0Gyjqoh2sRRHRlhe-ts9Ad8

 

What about your home countries, is the death rate much higher than normal? This whole thing baffles me! 

 

 

 

Edited February 22, 2021 by Neeranam

[CharlieH]

Well just for rough comparison purposes.

Deaths per 1m of population Uk= 1770 Thailand = 1

 

I think that puts it in perspective for you.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

[SaamBaht]

Right...another way to look at the situation in Thailand is to compare Covid deaths and road deaths...

 

First six weeks in Thailand

 

Covid less than five... (don't know the exact number)

 

Road deaths more that 2,000

 

Billions lost to Covid mitigation including stupid lockdowns...and draconian immigration policies...but Thailand isn't alone in this...

 

 

[Oldie]

13 minutes ago, CharlieH said:

Well just for rough comparison purposes.

Deaths per 1m of population Uk= 1770 Thailand = 1

 

I think that puts it in perspective for you.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

Very interesting to see the "Tests / 1m pop". Thailand didn't test much compared to others. 

[NanLaew]

I think the key is in reading what is called excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level)* for whatever country you are interested in.

 

Rather than specific numbers, the graphs from the website linked below show percentage comparisons, ie. April 2020, the UK was 108% (over twice as many), Scotland 80% (almost twice as many) and US was 44% (almost half as much increase) over April 2019. Note that Thailand doesn't report their figures weekly but only monthly so their April 2020 figures suggest it wasn't significantly higher with a fall from maybe being +10% the previous month. Influenza isn't so much a seasonal issue in Thailand as pneumonia which is endemic, especially in rural areas and particularly in the cool season.

 

The way I read the chart is back in April, which is after traditional northern hemisphere flu season (October-March), the numbers were excessive and hint at the severity of the first wave, ie. excessive Covid-related deaths. The second wave, although just as serious is more coincident with the traditional flu season, ie. lower ratio of Covid-related deaths. Also the UK's vaccination program kicked off around mid-December so that may be impacting their CURRENT drop off. It isn't that Thailand is wishing to hide these numbers by not including them in weekly statistics, the fact is they are tracked by a different entity than the MOPH.

 

 

* Also note that the website also gives a very clear explanation of Excess Mortality and how it is calculated.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[NanLaew]

17 minutes ago, SaamBaht said:

Right...another way to look at the situation in Thailand is to compare Covid deaths and road deaths...

 

First six weeks in Thailand

 

Covid less than five... (don't know the exact number)

 

Road deaths more that 2,000

 

Billions lost to Covid mitigation including stupid lockdowns...and draconian immigration policies...but Thailand isn't alone in this...

 

 

 

Since the OP specifically mentioned the virus, I am not at all sure where Thailand's consistently high daily road accident fatality rates make any difference or are even relevant in calculating "how deadly this virus is" here, Scotland or anywhere else.

[KannikaP]

56 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

I don't have a TV, and have little news sources. 

You've got a PC so dont need a TV or newspapers.

[mtls2005]

Down a bit?

 

Last semi-official news I saw. I think only about 35% die in hospital, so there's that.

 

Overall, 111,950 deaths were reported within the public-hospital system during the first 267 days of fiscal 2020, which began nine months ago. That amounts to about 419 a day, compared with a daily average of 460 deaths during the year-earlier period, according to the Health Ministry’s database.

[BigStar]

1 hour ago, Oldie said:

Very interesting to see the "Tests / 1m pop". Thailand didn't test much compared to others. 

But then the UK numbers, though our members of the Commonwealth believe them religiously, may be phony as well:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9279767/amp/BEL-MOONEY-dad-died-chronic-illness-hes-officially-Covid-victim.html

 

 

[Pilotman]

I just do not believe any of the numbers for Covid deaths, either here,  or in any other location.  There are just too many people, especially older ones, with pre existing conditions that are dying, who would die anyway, that are being lumped together as Covid victims.  Not enough testing is happening world wide, so we have no idea of the sample size, people being told that their relatives died OF covid when they mean they died WITH covid. Mate of mine lost his father and his family were  told it was by Covid, when his death certificate stated cancer with no mention of the virus.  Not an isolated case that I have heard of. I am not a conspiracy theorist and I do think Covid is dangerous to some and a world wide phenomena, that we all must take seriously and take precautions against,  but do I believe that this is as being made pubic and reported;  not for one second.  

[Oldie]

44 minutes ago, BigStar said:

But then the UK numbers, though our members of the Commonwealth believe them religiously, may be phony as well:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9279767/amp/BEL-MOONEY-dad-died-chronic-illness-hes-officially-Covid-victim.html

 

 

I don't understand why this family has such a problem with the perhaps wrong Covid diagnosis as cause of the death. If a close person is dead then I don't care so much if the reason was Covid or something else. A somehow sick reaction. 

 

There might also be cases where people died of Corona and it wasn't written down as such a case. Also if I look at many smaller clinics. If you go there with Corona like symptoms many of them will have no test equipment. So you might end up with a treatment against flu or a cold or something like this until you really develop serious symptoms. 

 

If I look at myself - I don't care so much how many people died. I simply don't want to get it. It can be a very unpleasant and expensive experience even if I don't die. I avoid place with many people without any precautions like bars. Even more - I avoid people that hang around in such bars every night. I simply want to enjoy my days without any sickness. 

[cmarshall]

It turns out that the poorer countries generally, but not universally, have significantly lower Covid death rates.  Here's a link to an article by a NY doctor that considers the various possible explanations and the relevant data.  Spoiler: there is theory that is widely accepted among epidemiologists.

 

While the virus has ravaged rich nations, reported death rates in poorer ones remain relatively low. What probing this epidemiological mystery can tell us about global health.

 

And there lies an epidemiological mystery. The usual trend of death from infectious diseases—malaria, typhoid, diphtheria, H.I.V.—follows a dismal pattern. Lower-income countries are hardest hit, with high-income countries the least affected. But if you look at the pattern of covid-19 deaths reported per capita—deaths, not infections—Belgium, Italy, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom are among the worst off. The reported death rate in India, which has 1.3 billion people and a rickety, ad-hoc public-health infrastructure, is roughly a tenth of what it is in the United States. In Nigeria, with a population of some two hundred million, the reported death rate is less than a hundredth of the U.S. rate. Rich countries, with sophisticated health-care systems, seem to have suffered the worst ravages of the infection. Death rates in poorer countries—particularly in South Asia and large swaths of sub-Saharan Africa—appear curiously low. (South Africa, which accounts for most of sub-Saharan Africa’s reported covid-19 deaths, is an important exception.)

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others

 

[Oldie]

1 minute ago, cmarshall said:

It turns out that the poorer countries generally, but not universally, have significantly lower Covid death rates.  Here's a link to an article by a NY doctor that considers the various possible explanations and the relevant data.  Spoiler: there is theory that is widely accepted among epidemiologists.

 

While the virus has ravaged rich nations, reported death rates in poorer ones remain relatively low. What probing this epidemiological mystery can tell us about global health.

 

And there lies an epidemiological mystery. The usual trend of death from infectious diseases—malaria, typhoid, diphtheria, H.I.V.—follows a dismal pattern. Lower-income countries are hardest hit, with high-income countries the least affected. But if you look at the pattern of covid-19 deaths reported per capita—deaths, not infections—Belgium, Italy, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom are among the worst off. The reported death rate in India, which has 1.3 billion people and a rickety, ad-hoc public-health infrastructure, is roughly a tenth of what it is in the United States. In Nigeria, with a population of some two hundred million, the reported death rate is less than a hundredth of the U.S. rate. Rich countries, with sophisticated health-care systems, seem to have suffered the worst ravages of the infection. Death rates in poorer countries—particularly in South Asia and large swaths of sub-Saharan Africa—appear curiously low. (South Africa, which accounts for most of sub-Saharan Africa’s reported covid-19 deaths, is an important exception.)

 

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/03/01/why-does-the-pandemic-seem-to-be-hitting-some-countries-harder-than-others

 

If I look at the test numbers then poor countries don't test much. If you look at the colum "Tests / 1m pop" in the table below than obviously countries that don't look for cases because they don't test much don't find many cases. Let's make an other example. If you go to a bar area with many potential personal entertainers and you don't look for one then you might not find one even if they are there. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

[cmarshall]

7 minutes ago, Oldie said:

If I look at the test numbers then poor countries don't test much. If you look at the colum "Tests / 1m pop" in the table below than obviously countries that don't look for cases because they don't test much don't find many cases. Let's make an other example. If you go to a bar area with many potential personal entertainers and you don't look for one then you might not find one even if they are there. 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

 

Read the article and then post.  That explanation is one of the many considered.

[ExpatOilWorker]

24 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Spoiler: there is theory that is widely accepted among epidemiologists.

 

The older population in the richer countries, which make perfectly sense. 

Still, why was Brazil and South Africa and maybe even Iran hit so hard?

[mommysboy]

It is true that in order to gauge the real effect of covid19 comparisons should be made with previous figures.  If the death rate remains static then the effect is negligible.  In Thailand's case that would be because of effective blocking of the virus through closed borders, lockdowns, social distancing, and possibly mask wearing.

 

The argument that covid19 is not dangerous because of the low death rate in Thailand is utterly erroneous.  Rather it vindicates the health policy.  One has to ask what the rate would be if effective measures had not been taken?  We only need to cast a glance to USA, Brazil, and the UK to have the answer.

 

Using mortality rates for road traffic accidents as an analogy is absurd.

[cmarshall]

52 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

The older population in the richer countries, which make perfectly sense. 

Still, why was Brazil and South Africa and maybe even Iran hit so hard?

 

There was a typo in my post.  It should have said, "There is no agreed upon theory as to why this is true."  Age distribution in the population is considered, but that alone does not fully explain the data.

 

The point of the article is to show why the armchair epidemiologists among us are making a mistake by latching on to a single favorite explanation when so many theories have been so carefully examined without finding the single culprit that would explain everything.

Edited February 23, 2021 by cmarshall

[DrDave]

18 hours ago, Pilotman said:

I just do not believe any of the numbers for Covid deaths, either here,  or in any other location.  There are just too many people, especially older ones, with pre existing conditions that are dying, who would die anyway, that are being lumped together as Covid victims.  Not enough testing is happening world wide, so we have no idea of the sample size, people being told that their relatives died OF covid when they mean they died WITH covid. Mate of mine lost his father and his family were  told it was by Covid, when his death certificate stated cancer with no mention of the virus.  Not an isolated case that I have heard of. I am not a conspiracy theorist and I do think Covid is dangerous to some and a world wide phenomena, that we all must take seriously and take precautions against,  but do I believe that this is as being made pubic and reported;  not for one second.  

I watched the livestream presentation by experts to the US FDA committee that made the recommendation for the emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine for use in the US the next day.  I wish I had captured some of the graphics from the presentation, because what I saw was very different from the message relentlessly reported by the media regarding demographics of hospitalizations and deaths. The real shocker, however, was a statement made by one of the presenting doctors that the reported COVID deaths also included deaths for which the COD listed on the death certificate were influenza or pneumonia.

[cmarshall]

20 hours ago, NanLaew said:

I think the key is in reading what is called excess deaths (deviation in mortality from the expected level)* for whatever country you are interested in.

 

Rather than specific numbers, the graphs from the website linked below show percentage comparisons, ie. April 2020, the UK was 108% (over twice as many), Scotland 80% (almost twice as many) and US was 44% (almost half as much increase) over April 2019. Note that Thailand doesn't report their figures weekly but only monthly so their April 2020 figures suggest it wasn't significantly higher with a fall from maybe being +10% the previous month. Influenza isn't so much a seasonal issue in Thailand as pneumonia which is endemic, especially in rural areas and particularly in the cool season.

 

The way I read the chart is back in April, which is after traditional northern hemisphere flu season (October-March), the numbers were excessive and hint at the severity of the first wave, ie. excessive Covid-related deaths. The second wave, although just as serious is more coincident with the traditional flu season, ie. lower ratio of Covid-related deaths. Also the UK's vaccination program kicked off around mid-December so that may be impacting their CURRENT drop off. It isn't that Thailand is wishing to hide these numbers by not including them in weekly statistics, the fact is they are tracked by a different entity than the MOPH.

 

 

* Also note that the website also gives a very clear explanation of Excess Mortality and how it is calculated.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

 

But since what we are seeing is excess, not total, deaths, it is very unlikely that any increase in this graph is due to influenza, since influenza rates were below normal this year generally, which was probably due to suppression by the anti-Covid public health measures.

 

What this graph shows is that Covid deaths in Thailand have been much higher than the official tally.

[NanLaew]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Still, why was Brazil and South Africa and maybe even Iran hit so hard?

 

Possibly the lack of guidance from their governments or an inefficient or non-existent state-supported public health regimen? Definitely the case in Iran. I recall when their infection rates were taking off like a bottle rocket and their Deputy Health Minister went on national television, obviously in physical distress, to deny mass deaths due to Covid-19. He tested +ve shortly afterwards but still tended to downplay the threat with the rather Trumpist “Iran will overcome” nonsense rather than accede to the real threat.

[mommysboy]

43 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

 

But since what we are seeing is excess, not total, deaths, it is very unlikely that any increase in this graph is due to influenza, since influenza rates were below normal this year generally, which was probably due to suppression by the anti-Covid public health measures.

 

What this graph shows is that Covid deaths in Thailand have been much higher than the official tally.

 

Or the effects of social distancing, unemployment, etc.  We can't simply deduce it is directly because of covid19 infection.

[1FinickyOne]

19 hours ago, Pilotman said:

I am not a conspiracy theorist 

 

19 hours ago, Pilotman said:

but do I believe that this is as being made pubic and reported;  not for one second. 

Sure, but isn't that the definition of a conspiracy theorist... 

[Pilotman]

9 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

 

Sure, but isn't that the definition of a conspiracy theorist... 

no, its the definition of a realist. 

[bunnydrops]

Older people tend to get pneumonia from many things from broken bones to the flu and die from it.

If a man with covid dies in an automobile accident, you wouldn't say he died of covid, but if the crash didn't kill him and he went to the hospital and dies of pneumonia, what killed him? The pneumonia caused by the covid, or from his injuries? A person with cancer gets covid, comes down with pneumonia and dies. Did he die from the cancer or from covid? I am sure pneumonia was the final cause but what would you put on the COD? You may say cancer and covid pushed him over the edge. But you may say he would have lived longer and blame covid. I just saw in the paper where someone famous who had covid died. The family says he didn't die from covid, he died from pneumonia, it says so on the COD. Why did he get pneumonia?

[NanLaew]

26 minutes ago, bunnydrops said:

Older people tend to get pneumonia from many things from broken bones to the flu and die from it.

If a man with covid dies in an automobile accident, you wouldn't say he died of covid, but if the crash didn't kill him and he went to the hospital and dies of pneumonia, what killed him? The pneumonia caused by the covid, or from his injuries? A person with cancer gets covid, comes down with pneumonia and dies. Did he die from the cancer or from covid? I am sure pneumonia was the final cause but what would you put on the COD? You may say cancer and covid pushed him over the edge. But you may say he would have lived longer and blame covid. I just saw in the paper where someone famous who had covid died. The family says he didn't die from covid, he died from pneumonia, it says so on the COD. Why did he get pneumonia?

 

Right from the get go, global health authorities and governments have stressed the reality that this pandemic will impact the elderly and immune-compromised far more than any other human demographic.

 

Therefore I don't see any need to dig deeper into what PRECISELY caused any one person's demise. There's no great Covid number inflation scam going on here. Questioning the veracity of the numbers just plays to the conspiracy theorists 'societal reset' nonsense.

[cmarshall]

37 minutes ago, bunnydrops said:

Older people tend to get pneumonia from many things from broken bones to the flu and die from it.

If a man with covid dies in an automobile accident, you wouldn't say he died of covid, but if the crash didn't kill him and he went to the hospital and dies of pneumonia, what killed him? The pneumonia caused by the covid, or from his injuries? A person with cancer gets covid, comes down with pneumonia and dies. Did he die from the cancer or from covid? I am sure pneumonia was the final cause but what would you put on the COD? You may say cancer and covid pushed him over the edge. But you may say he would have lived longer and blame covid. I just saw in the paper where someone famous who had covid died. The family says he didn't die from covid, he died from pneumonia, it says so on the COD. Why did he get pneumonia?

 

It's not necessary to determine whether pneumonia or Covid-related pneumonia caused the death of someone.  The excess death statistic takes care of that problem by just counting deaths greater than the average for the same period over recent years.  Unless there is another likely cause of death to which to attribute the excess, then it's reasonable to attribute it to Covid, even without confirmation by testing.  For 2020 there was no other epidemic going on other than Covid.

 

Counting excess deaths also solve the problem of people who would have died in 2020 from other causes, but did die from Covid.  Those deaths are not excess.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, DrDave said:

I watched the livestream presentation by experts to the US FDA committee that made the recommendation for the emergency approval of the Pfizer vaccine for use in the US the next day.  I wish I had captured some of the graphics from the presentation, because what I saw was very different from the message relentlessly reported by the media regarding demographics of hospitalizations and deaths. The real shocker, however, was a statement made by one of the presenting doctors that the reported COVID deaths also included deaths for which the COD listed on the death certificate were influenza or pneumonia.

Please let us at what point these alleged graphs make their appearance:

https://www.c-span.org/video/?507053-1/fda-meeting-covid-19-vaccine-emergency-authorization-part-1

[1FinickyOne]

55 minutes ago, Pilotman said:

no, its the definition of a realist. 

correct... right on point...  all conspiracy theorists think they are 100% correct.. that is their reality. 

 

and they can't see that they are possibly not correct... 

[bunnydrops]

19 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

Right from the get go, global health authorities and governments have stressed the reality that this pandemic will impact the elderly and immune-compromised far more than any other human demographic.

 

Therefore I don't see any need to dig deeper into what PRECISELY caused any one person's demise. There's no great Covid number inflation scam going on here. Questioning the veracity of the numbers just plays to the conspiracy theorists 'societal reset' nonsense.

I agree completely. I was trying to show that it is just as easy to discount a death from covid as it is inflate the numbers.

[Pilotman]

3 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

correct... right on point...  all conspiracy theorists think they are 100% correct.. that is their reality. 

 

and they can't see that they are possibly not correct... 

I am not coming up with any kind of theory, conspiracy or otherwise.  I am questioning the death rates being attributed to only Covid, nothing more.