Expert warns COVID wave may be much worse than one and two - expect 1,000 cases/day

[bermondburi]

Anyone not happy with the way things are handled in Thailand should leave immediately.

[Bkk Brian]

 

The UK variant is a challenge for Thailand, they cannot rely on the old methods that seemed to work, they need to adapt and act now.

 

At the top of this short list is a variant known as B.1.1.7, first detected in the United Kingdom in September 2020. This variant is considerably more contagious than the original virus. It has spread rapidly around the globe and likely accounts already for at least one-third of all cases in the United States [1]. Now comes more troubling news: emerging evidence indicates that infection with this B.1.1.7 variant also comes with an increased risk of severe illness and death [2].

 

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2021/03/30/infections-with-u-k-variant-b-1-1-7-have-greater-risk-of-mortality/

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[flyfrog]

Its just to make people afraid to travel, but think to late cause all paid for their tickets already.

Edited April 7, 2021 by onthedarkside
trolling comment removed

[BKKTRAVELER]

1 hour ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

Wow! Not even UK but British Strain. That's very specific. Scary. 

Oops, my bad! ????

 

This being said, it turns out the rumor may be true after all...

[Thalueng]

8 hours ago, Niteowl45 said:

This is another example of why it will be a long time before I visit Thailand again.

 

People who spend thousands of dollars to come over now have to also get expensive health insurance, quarantine, tracking etc, while in the meantime they let in workers from nearby countries for some payola and then they tell locals to go traveling in the country during another wave....

 

Screw them and their idiotic way of doing things.....

Well, I'm glad you're not coming to visit us. Stay in your country where the government certainly has dealt with the pandemic in a much better way. How many cases? How many dead? Probably a thousand times higher than here in Thailand. Really tired of all those comments from people who know everything better. If you don't like how things are handled in this wonderful country - do not come to visit, or - go back to your home country if you live here.

[unblocktheplanet]

5 hours ago, fleccer said:

the apotheosis of catastrophism

Thailand--40 million tourists this year. I might say the apogee of catastrophe coming to YOU soon. We're all gonna need this doc's masks.

[apetryxx]

Lockdowns ho! BOHICA, more suicides, economic deprivation and government control of your life. Enjoy.

[Gandtee]

Is it not likely that there have been a high number of cases since the epidemic began? But due to the lack of testing the figures appeared low. Now after an increase in testing the true figures are starting to appear. I'm sure there are many like me who treated the daily announced infection figures with scepticism.

[onthedarkside]

Several more CV misinformation posts and trolling posts have been removed. This is not the place or the topic for such things.

 

[daejung]

8 hours ago, Daithi85 said:

Your missing out, life is Great here  ????????

Great if everything is open, bars, restaurants, etc... without any time restriction

[anchadian]

I believe most of the government were given the Chinese vaccine.

 

@ABC

foreign affairs reporter@juliamacfarlane

 

A new study in Chile where the vaccine rollout has mostly relied on China's Coronvac vaccine, shows that the first shot alone does not offer protection against COVID19. It might explain why Chile's infection rate is still so high despite being one of the most vaccinated countries

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Daithi85 said:

U should call them  ,offer some advice. U seem to think u know  Alot. 

 

Funny man. It does not take a genius to figure out their agenda. However, in a nation where criticism, and perhaps even suggestions gets you locked up for awhile, and likely deported for life, I will hold off on officially offering my "advice". They do not exactly seem to be an open minded bunch. 

[JustinMoore]

That's the problem with living in a 3rd world country, the vaccines are slow to arrive in a lot of those places.  I know in the U.S. they plan on vaccinating their own people first, which will be done in about the next 30 days.  After that they will work on vaccinating the rest of the world.   There are so many different types of vaccines out there right now it's crazy lol.  The Thailand government is doing a terrible job of vaccinating its people.  Either way, the pandemic will end in every part of the world within the next 60 days, so don't be a coward.  

[Miss Pickle]

Thailand need to start rolling the vaccine out to its people have they even started yet ?

[DualSportBiker]

3 hours ago, fleccer said:

How can you predict 1000 cases a day? Please do explain it to us Mr expert .Not only that, but the third wave will be even worse than the first two, we are at the apotheosis of catastrophism ,no discounts

You mean you don't know? Good of you to admit that.

 

Health departments have models for social mobility. They can get data from a number of sources including census, public transport data, highway planning projects where traffic is counted and people quizzed on their travels. Depending on the granularity of the data they can breakdown average person-movements by the day. From that they use infection rates and rates of change in infection rates to make predictions. Not surprising to me, it is actually way more complex than that, but for you, Mr. Armchair Expert, simple might be best. 

 

A simpler explanation might be that as an infectious disease specialist, it's his job to find the data to make predictions.

[pookondee]

When you think about it, the jobs of these so-called experts depend on predicting the worst events possible.

 

You will never hear them saying

dont worry, or "no problem" and downplaying any risk,

since if an outbreak does occur he will look like the absolute incompetent.

 

By talking worst possible scenarios he is covering himself against every outcome,

and especially if the worst does happen he can say

"well, i did tell y'all".

 

This is the problem with the likes of Faucci and the U.K guy.

They predicted doomsday up front, then social media whipped up a frenzy of fear, so much so that society is at risk falling apart because of the OTT prevention

methods (lockdowns).

[hugocnx]

11 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

This is about one doctor's opinion.

If needed many doctors can be 'rewarded' to say the same.

[hugocnx]

6 hours ago, huangnon said:

It's supposed to be scary, headline-grabbing, etc.  Songkran was postponed last year, how much of the rest of your life do you want to postpone?

Probably best to double-mask and stay at home watching CNN from under our beds, eh?

Try watching another channel for starters.

[Tug]

Hopefully the good doctor won’t have his career ruined for speaking what he believes is the case and hopefully the Thai government will Benefit from other countries mistakes (I know that’s doubtful)soon my country will be in a position to help others as we are rapidly getting our own house in order my prayers are with with the Thai people stay safe practice safe protocols we all know what to do so do it don’t be a (covidiots)!

[connda]

Deal with it when it arrives, if it arrives.  Where do these 'experts' disappear to if their fear-mongering predictions fall flat. 
And by the way, the government would have to promote mass testing.  It's been loath to do that up to this point. 

[metisdead]

A scare mongering post has been reported and removed. 

[connda]

In regards to promoting public concer about holiday gatherings during Songkran.

Similarly, 40,000 people attended a recent Texas Rangers baseball game.
In the meanwhile, 'cases' go down in Texas as mask and social distancing regulations are scrapped, and Fauci is confused and "not quite sure" as to why.
"But they'll spike for sure", they'll say.
Maybe, maybe not.

People aligned with the for-profit pharmaceutical companies that make vaccines promote the idea that 'herd immunity' can only be reached using vaccinations.  Well, there is a profit incentive to promote that view, isn't there.
However, the history of epidemiological study shows that the human immunity response and 'herd immunity' has been working just fine until 2020 when the experts led by Bill Gates showed up and told us it didn't. 
But.  Nothing's changed. The fact that humanity is still on the Earth with 7.9 billion people is a testament to the effectiveness and efficiency of the human immune system.  Vaccines have there place, but they don't replace our own immune system.  At best they augment it.  And that should be the sole role of vaccines.  Augmenting the human immune system, not replacing it. 

Has Texas reached 'herd-immunity' or getting close? Could be. Perhaps that is what those decreasing numbers of cases imply.  Hence Fauci's confusion.  
But I'm sure he too is rooting for a spike in Texas' cases.  It will be rather embarrassing if all those people in a confined area don't create a local epidemic in the next week or two.  That's what the 'experts' globally promise if we don't follow the rules and 'do the right thing.'  Just saying.  Give it 14 days and then check back to see how Texas is fairing.  Maybe by then the 'experts' will have some fuel to stoke the fires of public concern.  Maybe?  Or maybe not.  We'll see.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by connda

[davemos]

Wait till 4th wave and the new Malay variant ..Lucky we have Bkk hospital ..

[mjakob007]

5 hours ago, NightSky said:

I hope COVID doesn’t take hold in Thailand, it will mean many casualties especially in poorer regions. 
 

Get the vaccine factory rolling!

awaiting shareholder agreements and commercial contracts before producing ????????????

[dallen52]

12 hours ago, Niteowl45 said:

This is another example of why it will be a long time before I visit Thailand again.

 

People who spend thousands of dollars to come over now have to also get expensive health insurance, quarantine, tracking etc, while in the meantime they let in workers from nearby countries for some payola and then they tell locals to go traveling in the country during another wave....

 

Screw them and their idiotic way of doing things.....

And why I'm working on getting out.

Local school closed today.

Two kids have covid19.

Nangrong. Positive.

But nothing published.

 

Heads in the sand

[superal]

23 minutes ago, dallen52 said:

And why I'm working on getting out.

Local school closed today.

Two kids have covid19.

Nangrong. Positive.

But nothing published.

 

Heads in the sand

God forbid that there is a major pandemic in Thailand cos they will not cope and Brazil is a prime example of little vaccination  and no lockdown resulting in 4000 deaths there yesterday, plus in Thailand foreigners will be the last to be cared for unless you are well insured or wealthy . I got back in the UK 10 days ago and the covid 19 controls are impressive and now proactive  ( although many mistakes at the beginning of the pandemic ) cos the government are to provide everyone with 2 free tests a week taken in your home .   Good luck on your departure .

[rupert the bear]

more of the same burble ese from the usual half wits,so vaccinations .plenty of time. now its too late and how many people have had the shot?pathetic is a polite word then we have our own super spreader the head  racist clown anutin,off you go spread it to every province everywhere .stupid no its a lot worse than that.bkk is a red zone and the provs around it.are they insane?enough said but ive had enough of these mental defectives telling us what to do theyre not qualified to wipe.....well whatever you wish will fit!

[WashingUpagain]

C19 is endemic and as such we're going to have to live with it. Take vitamin D3, zinc and vitamin C. Exercise regularly and if over 65, ensure you get the vaccine. If you have any pre health conditions or are obese, get the vax.

[rickudon]

3 hours ago, JustinMoore said:

That's the problem with living in a 3rd world country, the vaccines are slow to arrive in a lot of those places.  I know in the U.S. they plan on vaccinating their own people first, which will be done in about the next 30 days.  After that they will work on vaccinating the rest of the world.   There are so many different types of vaccines out there right now it's crazy lol.  The Thailand government is doing a terrible job of vaccinating its people.  Either way, the pandemic will end in every part of the world within the next 60 days, so don't be a coward.  

Total rubbish. Only 2% of the world population has been fully vaccinated and another 12 billion doses needed. Daily deaths are still higher than nearly every day last year - the pandemic probably has not even peaked yet. It will still be around in 12 months time.

[Albert Zweistein]

12 hours ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

Just heard rumors that the new clusters in Bkk are people infected with the British strain. If that's the case, we're probably screwed. That being said, they are rumors only, so who knows.

 

Before people ask me, they were cropped pictures of chats between doctors at Chula hospital discussing it. Can easily be all fake, and hopefully it is.

A good rumour comes back to the person who started it.