Thailand reports daily record 967 new coronavirus infections

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Try doing the maths again.There was a 230 increase between 9th and 10th and 178 increase between 10th and 11th.

Now add in all of the 281 extra Covid numbers that Chiang Mai put out again late in the day yesterday and your at 1248 reported cases for yesterday. Do the percentage on that now.

[FarFlungFalang]

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Now add in all of the 281 extra Covid numbers that Chiang Mai put out again late in the day yesterday and your at 1248 reported cases for yesterday. Do the percentage on that now.

Too late the gates closed already.

[rabas]

32 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Try doing the maths again.There was a 230 increase between 9th and 10th and 178 increase between 10th and 11th.

He is correct on total cases.

 

The number of cases jumped 789 on the 10th.

The number of cases jumped 967 on the 11th.

 

You are talking about change in jump size, the second derivative in calculus, the change in the change of cases. Excellent! You just showed that cases are growing exponentially.  If it was not exponential, your numbers 230 and 178 would be zero or less.

Edited April 12, 2021 by rabas

[FarFlungFalang]

10 minutes ago, rabas said:

He is correct on total cases.

 

The number of cases jumped 789 on the 10th.

The number of cases jumped 967 on the 11th.

 

You are talking about change in jump size, the second directive in calculus, the change in the change of cases. Excellent! You just showed that cases are growing exponentially.  If it was not exponential, your numbers 230 and 178 would be zero or less.

I was thinking exponential is if the increase keeps increasing which it's not, not on every day anyway but I would say if most days have it's increase increasing so I would say it's exponential.

[Antonymous]

9 minutes ago, rabas said:

He is correct on total cases.

 

The number of cases jumped 789 on the 10th.

The number of cases jumped 967 on the 11th.

 

You are talking about change in jump size, the second derivative in calculus, the change in the change of cases. Excellent! You just showed that cases are growing exponentially.  If it was not exponential, your numbers 230 and 178 would be zero or less.

 

Given this 'exponential growth' in cases that you and others have highlighted, your implication is that there will now be (after a short lag) an exponential increase in deaths. right?

 

I am not expecting that and stated so in my post. Yet nobody else  has yet has attempted an answer to my original question. Perhaps you'd like to have a shot at it Rabas? To repeat:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?  So far you and others have implied that it will match.

 

 

 

 

[morrobay]

7 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

"The cluster at entertainment venues in Bangkok and surrounding provinces had now led to 1,589 confirmed cases in 55 provinces between March 22 and April 10."

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiEnquirer/posts/298086335012240

 

 

Any information on the number of initial (index infectors) from  the entertainment venues in Bangkok ?

[rabas]

8 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

Given this 'exponential growth' in cases that you and others have highlighted, your implication is that there will now be (after a short lag) an exponential increase in deaths. right?

 

I am not expecting that and stated so in my post. Yet nobody else  has yet has attempted an answer to my original question. Perhaps you'd like to have a shot at it Rabas? To repeat:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?  So far you and others have implied that it will match.

I already answered your previous false statement on the previous page. DId you read it? You wrongly claimed there was no correlation in US cases and deaths and gave a deceptive image to 'prove' your false claim. Here is the real data clearly showing a strong relationship between US deaths and cases. 

 

As to your above comment, kindly show where I discussed Thailand deaths. I didn't.

 

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

14 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Given this 'exponential growth' in cases that you and others have highlighted, your implication is that there will now be (after a short lag) an exponential increase in deaths. right?

 

I am not expecting that and stated so in my post. Yet nobody else  has yet has attempted an answer to my original question. Perhaps you'd like to have a shot at it Rabas? To repeat:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?  So far you and others have implied that it will match.

 

 

 

 

Any deaths are unacceptable based upon the abject failure to close down the travel and allow the spread of the virus in my book.  

[anchadian]

Grim warning from the BP this morning reporting that more than 28,000 could be infected each day over the next month if no disease control measure are put in place says a senior public health official.

 

 

[Walker88]

23 minutes ago, rabas said:

I already answered your previous false statement on the previous page. DId you read it? You wrongly claimed there was no correlation in US cases and deaths and gave a deceptive image to 'prove' your false claim. Here is the real data clearly showing a strong relationship between US deaths and cases. 

 

As to your above comment, kindly show where I discussed Thailand deaths. I didn't.

 

 

 

For stat freaks, that's a fascinating graphic for a host of reason. Obviously the correlation is abundantly clear. Second, one can just eyeball the lag between infection and death, with the chart shift looking like about 2-3 weeks.

 

One disconcerting thing is that the gap in the two charts looks pretty constant, and what that suggests is that there has been no, or not much, progress in treatment. One would hope that, as doctors learned of more effective treatments in addressing those hit hard by the virus, the gap would widen, with the 'death curve' failing to maintain the correlation with the infection curve. That doesn't seem to have happened.

[Antonymous]

23 minutes ago, rabas said:

As to your above comment, kindly show where I discussed Thailand deaths. I didn't.

 

This is my point and why I posed a question yesterday that nobody has attempted to answer.

 

On my understanding of the data in other countries (I used the USA just as one example) and given some characteristics of the virus seen in this part of the world, as I have highlighted in previous posts in this thread, I am not expecting to see deaths in the near future match the 'exponential growth' in cases in Thailand that is the subject of this thread. That's my position. What is yours?

 

So I'll ask again, to you and anyone else:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?

 

 

 

[FarFlungFalang]

5 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

So I'll ask again, to you and anyone else:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?

Thailand is ranked 104th for transparency and corruption,does that answer your question?

[Walker88]

In an odd sort of way the Songkran travel probably benefits Bangkok. There's a lot fewer people in Bangkok now, and likely many who were infected have headed home. If they develop symptoms they are unlikely to return at the end of the holidays, so the pool of infected in Bangkok is less than it would have been absent Songkran. That gives Bangkok a little bit of time if the authorities decide to impose additional mitigation measures.

 

On the other hand, it's not good for total infections in Thailand, as obviously lots of the virus was exported to the rest of the country. Thus risk has likely been reduced for the 10-15 million residents of Bangkok, while it increased for the other 55-60 million Thais.

[ThailandRyan]

4 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

In an odd sort of way the Songkran travel probably benefits Bangkok. There's a lot fewer people in Bangkok now, and likely many who were infected have headed home. If they develop symptoms they are unlikely to return at the end of the holidays, so the pool of infected in Bangkok is less than it would have been absent Songkran. That gives Bangkok a little bit of time if the authorities decide to impose additional mitigation measures.

 

On the other hand, it's not good for total infections in Thailand, as obviously lots of the virus was exported to the rest of the country. Thus risk has likely been reduced for the 10-15 million residents of Bangkok, while it increased for the other 55-60 million Thais.

Ad in the increased chances for the aged population in the villages to possible become infected.  I would hate to see an entire small village contact Covid, it could decimate the elders in the community.

Edited April 12, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[Antonymous]

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Thailand is ranked 104th for transparency and corruption,does that answer your question?

 

Nope. That's just a deflection from someone who isn't prepared to commit to an answer.

[morrobay]

7 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Thai PBS's chart on the daily rise in Thailand's COVID cases since the beginning of April:

 

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiPBSWorld/status/1381101838645137412

 

The  differential equation for exponential growth rate is dy/dt = ky . The solution is y (t) = y(0) e^kt

I solved for the rate constant k = .3287 and checked it: y(11days)  = 26e^.3287(11) = 961 new cases on 11 April. So to see how many new cases there could be on day 16 , y(16) Just plug in (16) to above solution

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Nope. That's just a deflection from someone who isn't prepared to commit to an answer.

Committing to an answer would be just pure conjecture and speculation.  Guessing is not a part of the statistical equation, and this government has not been very transparent with truthful reporting and testing throughout the country unless they are doing a track and trace.  This is new territory that Thailand has not entered before with this latest spike and the travel allowed for Songkran.  So tell me your guess, because guessing is just a silly game.  Truth or dare time.

[Walker88]

7 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

This is my point and why I posed a question yesterday that nobody has attempted to answer.

 

On my understanding of the data in other countries (I used the USA just as one example) and given some characteristics of the virus seen in this part of the world, as I have highlighted in previous posts in this thread, I am not expecting to see deaths in the near future match the 'exponential growth' in cases in Thailand that is the subject of this thread. That's my position. What is yours?

 

So I'll ask again, to you and anyone else:

 

How close do you think the correlation (increase in positive cases to increase in deaths) will be in Thailand?

 

 

 

Since we're talking about human death here, it's maybe a bit cold to be so clinical, but.....

 

I think what you might find, and to which everyone might agree, is that Thailand will have its own 'death graph' that likely will correlate just as the graph rabas posted did. The difference will be in the size of the gap between infected and deceased. Fewer infected people might die, but their % per infected might form a graph with equally strong correlation to what rabas posted.

 

As Covid clears and additional studies are done, it will be important to know what factors led to the differences between infection and death rates. There seems to be something other than treatment options. Could it be environmental (e.g., more sun)? Could it be physical (less obesity, higher Vitamin D levels)? Could it be genetic? Will anything uncovered have wider implications and uses for the next pandemic, or are the mitigating factors regional and ethnic and of no value outside of the area/Thailand?

[Antonymous]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Committing to an answer would be just pure conjecture and speculation.  Guessing is not a part of the statistical equation, and this government has not been very transparent with truthful reporting and testing throughout the country unless they are doing a track and trace.  This is new territory that Thailand has not entered before with this latest spike and the travel allowed for Songkran.  So tell me your guess, because guessing is just a silly game.  Truth or dare time.

 

I've made my position very clear already. Again: I do not expect near future deaths in Thailand to correlate to this exponential spike in cases.

 

Do you expect it to correlate, or not? Neither you nor anyone else repeating dramatic news about the spike in cases has answered this question.

[FarFlungFalang]

 

18 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

Nope. That's just a deflection from someone who isn't prepared to commit to an answer.

The correlation you are looking for relies on the data being trustworthy so if this Administration has been deemed untrustworthy a true correlation is difficult to ascertain it also depends on how Thais categorise a covid death.If you can please share how Thailand does categorise a covid death.I can't commit to an answer because I don't trust the figures or how they are determined. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Walker88 said:

Since we're talking about human death here, it's maybe a bit cold to be so clinical, but.....

 

I think what you might find, and to which everyone might agree, is that Thailand will have its own 'death graph' that likely will correlate just as the graph rabas posted did. The difference will be in the size of the gap between infected and deceased. Fewer infected people might die, but their % per infected might form a graph with equally strong correlation to what rabas posted.

 

As Covid clears and additional studies are done, it will be important to know what factors led to the differences between infection and death rates. There seems to be something other than treatment options. Could it be environmental (e.g., more sun)? Could it be physical (less obesity, higher Vitamin D levels)? Could it be genetic? Will anything uncovered have wider implications and uses for the next pandemic, or are the mitigating factors regional and ethnic and of no value outside of the area/Thailand?

A leading factor in my opinion of death rates here is the age groups involved. Most infected people so far have been of working age younger population, be that local Thai's or migrants. The Songkran travel will in my opinion change all that with the elderly and frail now going to be infected. Death rates will increase and trend more clearly.

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A leading factor in my opinion of death rates here is the age groups involved. Most infected people so far have been of working age younger population, be that local Thai's or migrants. The Songkran travel will in my opinion change all that with the elderly and frail now going to be infected. Death rates will increase and trend more clearly.

And that is the unknown variable so to guesstimate and answer would be inappropriate. It could be high it could be low but in the end I don't trust this governments actual numbers so it would be pure speculation to give the poster an answer either way.

Edited April 12, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[FarFlungFalang]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A leading factor in my opinion of death rates here is the age groups involved. Most infected people so far have been of working age younger population, be that local Thai's or migrants. The Songkran travel will in my opinion change all that with the elderly and frail now going to be infected. Death rates will increase and trend more clearly.

The elderly and frail are not all huddled together in aged care facilities as they are in many places so the effect of the pandemic may differ as well as the correlation between deaths and cases.Getting the elderly and frail tested will be a quite difficult I would imagine.

[Walker88]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

A leading factor in my opinion of death rates here is the age groups involved. Most infected people so far have been of working age younger population, be that local Thai's or migrants. The Songkran travel will in my opinion change all that with the elderly and frail now going to be infected. Death rates will increase and trend more clearly.

 

Quite possible what you write.....

 

At the same time, it will be critical, when time and research allow, to come to some understanding of why the death rates do seem to differ so greatly between Thailand and countries like the US. Isolating whatever those factors might be (and assuming data has been reported accurately and honestly), could have great benefit for when the next pandemic hits.

 

As I noted in my previous post, will research learn it was some special treatment (seems unlikely now)?

 

Is it environmental (sun, humidity)?

Is it dietary (obesity, Vitamin and mineral levels)?

Is it related to previous exposure to similar viruses?

Is it genetic (some data suggests Denisovan DNA, vs Neanderthal DNA, is a possible mitigating factor)?

 

Peer reviewed research findings might give the world some answers. That will take time. Let's hope something of value is discovered before the next virus is upon us, because such viruses are now coming fast and furious (SARS, MERS, Avian Flu, Ebola, Zika, HIV, West Nile, etc. all since ~1980)

[sandyf]

16 hours ago, crazykopite said:

Very true they would rather spend the money on high speed trains and second hand submarines all supplied at a very expensive  cost by the Chinese Regime whilst people are hungry ,committing suicide on a daily bases due to being unemployed and having huge debts 

 

Usual anti government sentiment. The future cannot be taken away for today.

I have seen more people sleeping on the streets of Sheffield than ever seen in Thailand in more than 20 years.

At the end of the day it is their country and if you do not like the way they do things then you shouldn't be here.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, FarFlungFalang said:

The elderly and frail are not all huddled together in aged care facilities as they are in many places so the effect of the pandemic may differ as well as the correlation between deaths and cases.Getting the elderly and frail tested will be a quite difficult I would imagine.

That is the variable we have here that is entirely different from the west and Europe 

[sandyf]

21 hours ago, Nong Khai Man said:

So NO Tourists Anytime SOON,Then ??

A fairly common problem, with some desperate solutions.

 

The country attracted more than 2.7 million foreign visitors in 2019 but figures have fallen by more than 80% since the virus was detected in March 2020.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malta-tourism-handout-idUSKBN2BW2KX?fbclid=IwAR0Xrr-R-ybmoCpRfhMOafqZyDDAEBAuPtjk0Wv7_7C_hV1Fb3BrlydBKgY

 

[FarFlungFalang]

18 minutes ago, Antonymous said:

 

I've made my position very clear already. Again: I do not expect near future deaths in Thailand to correlate to this exponential spike in cases.

 

Do you expect it to correlate, or not? Neither you nor anyone else repeating dramatic news about the spike in cases has answered this question.

So you're saying there will be no rise in the number of deaths because of the increase in the number of cases or any correlation?If so that's bold.

Edited April 12, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[FarFlungFalang]

29 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

That is the variable we have here that is entirely different from the west and Europe 

It could possibly be a major factor when one thinks about it.Aged care facilities might be called death camps in the future by weirdos like me.

Edited April 12, 2021 by FarFlungFalang

[sandyf]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

That is the variable we have here that is entirely different from the west and Europe 

Certainly different.

 

As elderly care homes in the United States and Europe become ever more badly run and far too expensive for many, some Europeans and Americans are beginning to take their parents and other elderly relatives to Thailand to live instead.

Elderly care homes in Thailand are usually cheaper than they are in the U.S. and Europe. They are also often better run, with caregivers that actually care about the elderly people they take care of, instead of being the abusers some working in western retirement homes have become.

https://tastythailand.com/are-elderly-care-homes-in-thailand-the-future-for-many-retirees-in-the-west/