Thailand reports 1,767 new COVID-19 cases, 2 more deaths

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

More than happy for you to call it a linear growth, I'll carry on calling it an exponential trend line.

 

Its the actual data that is important not the terms used. The fact is there is a surge in cases in the pandemic that is clearly not under control.

 

However just to keep you happy then please feel free to call this a linear increase, I'll carry on calling it an exponential trend line..........thanks..........cool.

 

Feel free to make your own covid chart and post.

Haven't read all the comments, but using normal cartesian co-ordinates if the gradient is increasing then that it is exponential growth......yes??

[PGSan]

1 hour ago, BookShe said:

Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus.

This surely is saying that we know very little, or not?

[Surelynot]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Family in the US is watching the wave of the virus currently hitting Thailand now and are extremely concerned

Eldest daughter was crying yesterday demanding I fly back to the UK ......beginning to think she might be right.

[natway09]

The numbers arriving in the country are of concern (288 today)

Authorities at point of deperture are obviously just letting them board. or does this include land border entries bound for quarantine anyway

[PGSan]

Just now, Surelynot said:

using normal cartesian co-ordinates if the gradient is increasing then that it is exponential growth......yes??

No, since any power greater than 1 will give increasing gradient (think of a quartic curve).

[Surelynot]

3 minutes ago, PGSan said:

No, since any power greater than 1 will give increasing gradient (think of a quartic curve).

Exactly.....as long as the gradient increases it is exponential......

 

Exponential growth refers to a manner in which a quantity increases when its rate of growth is proportional to itself. For example, a quantity that keeps tripling is an example of a quantity that exhibits exponential growth; since the value is constantly tripling with respect to itself, the rate of increase is also constantly increasing.

 

Whenever something is increasing or growing rapidly as a result of a constant rate of growth applied to it, that thing is experiencing exponential growth. The figure above is an example of exponential growth. In fact, it is the graph of the exponential function y = 2 x The general form of an exponential function is y = ab x.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Surelynot

[Excel]

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Family in the US is watching the wave of the virus currently hitting Thailand now and are extremely concerned for my family over here including myself.  They see it as heading to a point here in the next week where it will totally overwhelm the hospitals and staff here.  They also wonder how prior to this there were so few cases, and deaths.  I told them they needed to some research and see how Thailand had handled the shutdown of the country from the outside world, and then the quarantine of travelers entering the country as well as hospitalization all positive Covid cases even asymptomatic.  My Daughter the surgical ICU PA, started to laugh when she was talking to me as we went through stats together.  I asked her why she was laughing and she stated "Their testing stats are so low in comparison to positive cases".  She said they should be testing more than they have and doing it randomly out in the villages and provinces to get a real feel for what is truly happening.  I told her I agree with her, but that's not how they do things here.  That is when she told me how concerned she was and how she viewed this as a ticking time bomb for Thailand especially since their vaccination program is at a crawl.  I told her I believe I am safer here than back in the US, but my family involved in the medical profession believes that I am not being realistic.  5 phone calls to me in the last 3 hours, ugh.  The big question they all asked me:  "Why did they not stop the travel for the Thai New Year, and allow this to spread nation wide when they new what the current Virus Variant was", and "Why treat this wave different then when they stopped the travel last year with fewer numbers and less serious cases".  My answer was, I have no clue other than I believe it was all over money.

100% agree and at 73 I still rather be here than in the UK. However my life could end tomorrow and at least it would have had a fulfilling life whereas I am apprehensive about the future for my wife and our family here and all the friends with their youngsters in the villages whom I have lived with for years as it seems they are being cast to the wolves yet again by such a corrupt regime. All the Elite have had their jobs so that they can continue their lifestyles, just hope that Karma treats them as the low lifes they really are.

[Guderian]

What was the number that Thai doctor quoted a few days ago, 26,000 new cases a day?

 

But never mind, TAT's plans to drop quarantine requirements and open up to foreign tourists are still on track, lol.

[BookShe]

4 minutes ago, PGSan said:

This surely is saying that we know very little, or not?

If you take every detail we know equally, then yes, we know a lot. If you weigh these details by importance then statistically we know nothing. ????

[AMFWolfie]

1 hour ago, madmen said:

Can't see farang getting the jab before end of year while these numbers continue to soar! 

I think your optimism that there is or will be enough vaccines in Thailand to inoculate key personnel let alone Farangs is wishful thinking...

[PGSan]

3 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Exponential growth refers to a manner in which a quantity increases when its rate of growth is proportional to itself.

 

True, but an increasing gradient does not imply such proportional dependence.    For a quadratic the rate of growth increases but it is only proportional to the square root of the quantity itself, an important distinction. 

[PGSan]

3 minutes ago, BookShe said:

If you take every detail we know equally, then yes, we know a lot. If you weigh these details by importance then statistically we know nothing. ????

Err, statistically speaking this is very confusing!  How do 

count details?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

29 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Like to know the number of tests.

 

As mentioned above, there was a substantial amount of info presented in yesterday's thread about the amount of COVID testing that's been going on in Thailand on a daily basis dating back to the start of the pandemic.

 

The discussion of that begins at this point in the thread:

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Haven't read all the comments, but using normal cartesian co-ordinates if the gradient is increasing then that it is exponential growth......yes??

To be honest I don't like to get into the calculations of how its defined as this is not a scientific study, for me its just how you decide to draw the trend, you can draw it with lines or draw it with a curve.

 

Here's a curve for variety.

 

 

[BookShe]

45 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

I have an idea why...they didn’t report them...it’s a case of occums razor...either they under reported them or Thailand alone in the world has some special resistance to Covid. The simple explanation seems more plausible compared to some miracle immunity not shred by even their close genetic cousins in the region.

It is possible that they under reported the death toll. You are right. But.

 

The following post a few days old. Back then the number of death was "only" 95.

"Hungary with a population of only 9.6 Million is recorded 24,000 fatalities. That is pretty bad. Thailand with 70 Million only 95 as of yet. Add a zero to the 95.    950 is still "nothing" in a population of 70 Mill. Add two zeroes. 9500 and many small European countries would take that as their final death toll."

 

I don't know the answer. I'm just bringing up some interesting facts. ????

 

[cocoonclub]

10 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

it wouldn’t be speculation if I did...people speculate on the stock market every day without concrete evidence of what will happen, quarterly reports and annual forecasts are often wrong and share prices tank or rise accordingly..people form an opinion on the information (including comparative information) that they have and there are people who have the same or differing opinions which is what forms the market...this is what I am doing here.

If you’re basing your investment decisions upon analysts who write two lines of wild speculation without any data and analysis backing it up I am not surprised why you’re doing the same here. 

 

Quote

And as with the stock market there is every chance I am right and the next man is wrong and vice versa...that’s life.

That’s just another rather wild hypothesis for which you don’t provide any evidence. Since knowledge and experience isn’t evenly distributed, there’s not “every chance I am right and the next man is wrong”. There’s a higher chance that the man with two lines of obscure speculation and no evidence is wrong. 

[PGSan]

15 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Whenever something is increasing or growing rapidly as a result of a constant rate of growth applied to it, that thing is experiencing exponential growth

No! It must have a growth rate proportional to its value to be exponential.  A constant growth rate gives linear growth.

Edited April 18, 2021 by PGSan

[ourmanflint]

14 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Family in the US is watching the wave of the virus currently hitting Thailand now and are extremely concerned for my family over here including myself.  They see it as heading to a point here in the next week where it will totally overwhelm the hospitals and staff here.  They also wonder how prior to this there were so few cases, and deaths.  I told them they needed to some research and see how Thailand had handled the shutdown of the country from the outside world, and then the quarantine of travelers entering the country as well as hospitalization all positive Covid cases even asymptomatic.  My Daughter the surgical ICU PA, started to laugh when she was talking to me as we went through stats together.  I asked her why she was laughing and she stated "Their testing stats are so low in comparison to positive cases".  She said they should be testing more than they have and doing it randomly out in the villages and provinces to get a real feel for what is truly happening.  I told her I agree with her, but that's not how they do things here.  That is when she told me how concerned she was and how she viewed this as a ticking time bomb for Thailand especially since their vaccination program is at a crawl.  I told her I believe I am safer here than back in the US, but my family involved in the medical profession believes that I am not being realistic.  5 phone calls to me in the last 3 hours, ugh.  The big question they all asked me:  "Why did they not stop the travel for the Thai New Year, and allow this to spread nation wide when they knew what the current Virus Variant was", and "Why treat this wave different then when they stopped the travel last year with fewer numbers and less serious cases".  My answer was, I have no clue other than I believe it was all over money.

Your daughter is right to laugh, the outside world has experienced a year of ongoing Covid infection rise and falls, medical staff have been at the front line and have seen how it spreads and what it does. 

With an almost unlimited supply of hosts, these newer more infectious covid virus mutations spread alarmingly quickly, the growth rate does not bend to testing report figures. The increase in growth is much faster than the testing in Thailand can keep up with and is being reported.

I think that's why she thinks you might be being unrealistic. 

Testing figures in Thailand have zero link to rate of infection in general population, as someone mentioned earlier (graph), the rate of hospitalisations might be a better indicator

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

33 minutes ago, rumbo1 said:

All these figures but they never show how many were tested, only ever hear of positive results. 

Was it 1% or 100% of the tests that were positive? 

 

 

Look in the middle of yesterday's thread on new COVID cases for a lot of information on the volume of testing that's been done. The positivity rate depends on who's being tested, targeted groups where outbreaks have occurred vs. random testing.

 

 

[Surelynot]

5 minutes ago, PGSan said:

 

True, but an increasing gradient does not imply such proportional dependence.    For a quadratic the rate of growth increases but it is only proportional to the square root of the quantity itself, an important distinction. 

Right I think I get it now.....there are two types of exponential growths (or decays)......the correctly defined one a mathematician would understand....and the one politicians and the like might bandy about...simply meaning an increasing gradient.......

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, BookShe said:

Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus. 

Initial viral load seem to play a factor in who live and who dies.

Doctors and health care workers who might breath a high virus load deep in their lungs might die, while an elderly person who slowly get infected from his/her spouse might live.

 

[PGSan]

5 minutes ago, PGSan said:

No! It must have a growth rate proportional to its value to be exponential.  A constant growth rate gives linear growth.

Yes, it’s all very subtle and confusing — we know!

Edited April 18, 2021 by PGSan

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The BMA for Bangkok over the weekend began issuing their own daily COVID updates for the province, including a version in EN... But there's little explanation of just what to make of some of their statistics or accounting for the differences between the BMA report and MoPH information.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/prbangkok/photos/a.340316886067939/3410967912336139/

 

[Surelynot]

1 hour ago, BookShe said:

Why does it kill a relatively healthy young person in just 2 days, and on the other hand, relatively sick and unhealthy people don't even recognize they caught the virus. 

Read an article that pinned a lot on interferon......this is produced by your body (as I understand it) to kick start the body's immune system into action........too little and it's too late....the virus gets a good run at you......too much and your own immune system goes crazy and attacks 'you'.......as might be able to tell...not an expert.

Edited April 18, 2021 by Surelynot

[GroveHillWanderer]

1 hour ago, BookShe said:

These pre-existing conditions are giving us a false narrative. Most listed pre-existing conditions are not life-threatening. People can live a full lifespan with diabetes if it's checked. Same for high blood pressure. Both can be kept in order with medicines.

Be that as it may, obesity, diabetes and high blood pressure have been recognised for a long time now as predisposing people to a higher risk of serious illness, hospitalisation and death, when they are infected with CoVid-19.

 

There are other conditions that also present a risk (such as heart disease) but these three are definitely among the risk factors.

 

See link below from the British Heart Foundation.

 

What factors put you at risk from coronavirus?

 

Just to take diabetes as an example, the article points out that:

 

"A study of over three million people with diagnosed Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes in England found that the risk of Covid-19 death when you have diabetes increases in line with the level of hyperglycaemia (high blood sugar). We can also see that since the start of April, the weekly rate of deaths in people with diabetes has been twice what it was before the coronavirus outbreak."

[CRUNCHER]

24 minutes ago, natway09 said:

The numbers arriving in the country are of concern (288 today)

Authorities at point of deperture are obviously just letting them board. or does this include land border entries bound for quarantine anyway

The OP is far from clear.  It talks about "people entering quarantine" not people entering the country. The form of reporting has changed over the past couple of days and needs some clarification.

[Neeranam]

2 hours ago, madmen said:

Can't see farang getting the jab before end of year while these numbers continue to soar! 

I assume you mean foreigners as the Thai authorities don't not distinguish on race. Anyway, firefighters should be able to get the jab from private Hospitals very soon. 

[Eibot]

2 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Do you see the pattern? Exponential growth does not stop because of a 3 day flatline

 

We can see the pattern and it's concerning. Exponential growth Is a mathematical term to show the relationship between Y and X. This is not a exponential growth. However, it doesn't matter, it's a concerning growth and the real numbers (not positive tests) might aswell be exponential.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Today's updated province by province breakdown of new domestic COVID cases has been updated and added to an earlier post in this thread here...

 

 

[Saltire]

Personally I have had enough of Thai statistics.

 

It's my view now they are all just manufactured, but not just to lie or hide the real picture, I believe they just dont know how to gather and collect accurate data, and I dont just mean Covid, but can never admit it.

 

I dont believe the road death stats, the tourist forecasts (and historic numbers of visitors), the number of unemployed, the one million bar girls doing nothing now and any other number they come up with. They do not have the capability or expertise to accurately collect and report on such a large scale, and they are not alone.

 

If there is a million bar girls looking for work train them in the use of a syringe and the vaccinations will take a week if they do 60 a day each. Sorted! ????

 

.