THA: 80% of hotels shut till October - won't be back to normal until 2023

[Rhacsyn]

Some hotels are lucky enough to own the land they sit on and that is a big advantage for them but may be not enough to save them from closing.

 

As for me, I have friends in the Swedish and Danish tourist agency markets and as per them there is sufficient interest in travelling to Thailand for the market to he optimistic. I cannot speak for Spain, France or Greece. I have taken out a ten year lease (in Thailand) on a bar so at least my glass will always be half full.......even if I end up drinking by myself ????

[Jingthing]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

My phone told me this morning 47% of Thai hotels only have 3 months liquidity left.

That will mean a lot of 'closed' hotels.

Maybe they could be converted to pandemic themed condos?

 

Suggested names

 

El Moderno

 

Pfizer Palace

 

Sinovactown

 

Sputumnik Heights

 

Covid  Terraces

Edited May 4, 2021 by Jingthing

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, Poet said:

 

Oh, I see. Okay. If Covid is a massive conspiracy, fair enough, that would certainly prevent the resumption of mass tourism. Of course, to believe that, you would also have to have fallen fairly far down the rabbithole ????
 

You comment before you read, which is never a good idea.

 

I didn't write that Covid is a conspiracy.

 

I wrote that, when you put together Covid + climate change + Great Reset restrictions and objectives, you get a bleak picture for mass tourism...and many other things.

 

Now, we have been living in the so-called "new normal" for over a year, and there are those who still cling to the idea that a return to the "old normal" is just a few shots away, and those who think that the "new normal" is here to stay, and evolve.

 

Because one is part of the first group doesn't allow one to state that others are wrong and delusional.

 

Only time will tell...

[KhunMorris]

6 hours ago, Brunolem said:

For you, "could we'll be" is hard news, while "valid 6 months" is fake news because? you know better than Pfizer's CEO who said a couple of weeks ago that a booster shot will probably be required after 6 months?

 

“The good news is that in the 6-month status report from Pfizer, immunity stays very strong, and we anticipate that it will continue to stay strong,” said Bailey.

“These people [in the study] have had the vaccine the longest, and it tells us it lasts at least 6 months,” added Bailey. “But it’s definitely longer than that — it’s not just going to drop off after 6 months. I would have been concerned if efficacy had dropped by a third or half.”

 

Source:

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-long-

does-immunity-from-covid-19-vaccination-last#Protection-lasts-for-at-least-6-months,-likely-longer

 

At least is the key here. 

 

Sincerley

 

MORRIS

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The chief of the Thai Hoteliers' Association painted a grim picture of the current situation in Thailand in an interview with Channel 3. 

 

To anyone with the ability to think ahead and to think critically, this was all fairly easily predictable. Serious countries had been preparing their workforce for SUBSTANTIAL changes in the world economy that will unfold during the next 5 to 10 years.

• Countries like Vietnam aggressively looked to woo investment leaving and avoiding China.
• Countries like Singapore have a massive upskilling program.
• Countries like Malaysia have also started investing in infrastructure.
• Likewise the US that is investing in a once-in-a-century national infrastructure upgrading campaign.

There are many examples of countries that have taken this serious. Hell, even China, as much as I dislike the place, have been exploiting this pandemic they created at every opportunity.

 

Then there are the cartoon countries that think everything will always just be ok. We have sunny weather, pretty girls and good food, so surely we don't have to really worry about anything else...

[rasmus5150]

4 hours ago, Brunolem said:

This will be like the 1997/8 crisis...squared!

Although there will be a big difference.

In 1997 the Thb went crashing down - for some reason it seems like the opposite is happening at the moment.....

[Fex Bluse]

3 minutes ago, rasmus5150 said:

Although there will be a big difference.

In 1997 the Thb went crashing down - for some reason it seems like the opposite is happening at the moment.....

 

They are in bed deep with China. China is helping any country that helps it subvert the anti-China block. 

[adammike]

3 hours ago, lkv said:

 

Yes, and that trend has been reversed in 2014, when less and less Westerners came to Thailand, and streets started to fill with Chinese travellers.

 

The majority of Europeans have no clue where Thailand is on the map, they travel to Spain and Greece.

 

The only reason some of them went to Thailand before, is because airfares got ridiculously cheap, i.e 300-400 pounds/euro return, and hotels / food were also cheap. So they thought they could have a more exotic vacation at the same cost.

I visit Thailand to get a break from the northern European winter and can do it on a budget.

In reality it was the only place to go,then Cambodia opened up and was shut down again by the Chinese.

Vietnam is now an option but at my age breaking new ground is not something I really want to do.

It's going to take a lot to get me on an airplane or anywhere that people are crammed into tight spaces.

I speak as someone who is in quarantine at home with Covid, infected 10 days after my first vaccination.

I have not managed to save anything but I have some nice new rugs,table, chairs,network amplifier, vacuum cleaner,air fryer,Texel wool quilt and covers,and basically a new wardrobe.

[zyphodb]

5 hours ago, BritManToo said:

My phone told me this morning 47% of Thai hotels only have 3 months liquidity left.

That will mean a lot of 'closed' hotels.

They'll all be snatched up by Chinese money launderers...

[kingofthemountain]

6 minutes ago, adammike said:

I speak as someone who is in quarantine at home with Covid, infected 10 days after my first vaccination.

I sincerely wish you a quick recovery of your health

[BritManToo]

4 hours ago, lkv said:

The only reason some of them went to Thailand before, is because airfares got ridiculously cheap, i.e 300-400 pounds/euro return, and hotels / food were also cheap. So they thought they could have a more exotic vacation at the same cost.

I paid 250 pounds for my first return trip to Thailand in 2009 from the UK.

[Surelynot]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

painted a grim picture

Realistic picture.....it does beg the question where are the 6 million Brits (10% of the UK population) going to stay?

[connda]

THA: 80% of hotels shut till October - won't be back to normal until 2023.....or 2024, or 2025 - or never.

[newnative]

4 hours ago, lkv said:

 

Yes, and that trend has been reversed in 2014, when less and less Westerners came to Thailand, and streets started to fill with Chinese travellers.

 

The majority of Europeans have no clue where Thailand is on the map, they travel to Spain and Greece.

 

The only reason some of them went to Thailand before, is because airfares got ridiculously cheap, i.e 300-400 pounds/euro return, and hotels / food were also cheap. So they thought they could have a more exotic vacation at the same cost.

Incorrect.  The only drop in western tourists--and it was slight--was from Australia.

[scotsdude]

11 hours ago, Poet said:

1.5 years ago was December 2019.

That was the peak of the high season, Thailand was packed with tourists, in particular Chinese. There was certainly no indication of what was to come just a few months later.

It may not be precisely true to say that everyone had a job, but that the general feeling of the time. It was certainly true that the Thais were not particularly bothered if Western tourists kept coming because the Chinese seemed to be a far more profitable prospect.

To say that "It wasn't like that at all" is, well, made up nonsense.

 

Nonsense!! Pattaya for example was dying a death even before this pandemic started.... 

[Blumpie]

Speaking from a few grumpy men who want to get home (understandably) and long term holidayers they seem to think that if the doors are flung open things will be back to normal.

Fat chance.

Look at China.  They are not getting vaccinated.  They are not travelling.   They don't care.  

Every country on the planet says "avoid all essential travel", which has huge effects on insurance for holidayers.  They have no interest in Thailand right now.

To say 2023 it won't be back to normal is the best case scenario.  Let me assure you, fall 2021 won't look too much different from fall 2020.  Until the general population has herd immunity by vaccination, nobody is going to Thailand in huge numbers.

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Blumpie said:

Look at China.  They are not getting vaccinated.  They are not travelling.

They are forced to quarantine on returning.............that certainly kills it.

[natway09]

This lady should check her facts before representing her Association

Lucky if there is a 2% occupancy of all hotel beds in Thailand.

October , 2023, she got that right.

Why does the Government not take over some large Hotels & use them for Covid Hospitals.

All the pre requisites are there like showers, toilets, electricity in every room.

Just pay the Hotel owners  a small rent

[xylophone]

6 minutes ago, scotsdude said:

Nonsense!! Pattaya for example was dying a death even before this pandemic started.... 

As was Patong, and this can be evidenced in a Thai Visa thread entitled "Patong – the Wake" which was going for at least a year prior to that date under another name, mainly because tourism was in the doldrums here.

 

The so-called "high seasons" had not achieved the "highs" of years gone by, by a long shot, although TAT was keen on quoting statistics which would show an increase on a previous year, which basically meant they were coming from a low.

Edited May 4, 2021 by xylophone

[Blumpie]

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

They are forced to quarantine on returning.............that certainly kills it.

I understand, but do we fully understand the psyche behind asians.  

There is a sense of shame when they do things against governments advice.  In a place like China there is certainly a black mark put on your name for doing so.  

Look at Thailand, they are doing on an individual level a somewhat much better job of locking down and following rules.  There is a sense of moral and ethical responsibility to protect each other right now.  

Honestly, there is no way the numbers are going to return for a long long long time.  The numbers thrown out by this report was the most honest thing I've seen out of Thailand and of course it didn't come from TAT.  Remember them, up until 3 weeks ago bragging about millions of tourists this fall?  Ha ha ha!  

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, KhunMorris said:

 

“The good news is that in the 6-month status report from Pfizer, immunity stays very strong, and we anticipate that it will continue to stay strong,” said Bailey.

“These people [in the study] have had the vaccine the longest, and it tells us it lasts at least 6 months,” added Bailey. “But it’s definitely longer than that — it’s not just going to drop off after 6 months. I would have been concerned if efficacy had dropped by a third or half.”

There is this piece of Pfizer propaganda that you quote, and then there is the article below.

 

Why would the EU order 1.8 billion doses of Pfizer vaccine, on top of vaccines from other manufacturers, for it's 400 million population...if multiple injections weren't required?

 

Assuming that 70% of the EU population was vaccinated with Pfizer (a very long shot), that would be 5 doses per person...over 2.5 years!

 

Looks very much like one dose every 6 months or so.

 

So it would seem that the EU is not as optimistic as you are...

[Skallywag]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

80% of their hotels would be shut until October when it is hoped that the pandemic will show signs of abating and the vaccine rollout will be in full swing.

50% of those should be leveled and turned into parking lots. 

Dilapidated buildings from Soi 2 - Soi 13/4 should all be leveled for parking

Off street parking of tour buses or cars or motorcycles should be #1 priority for Neo-Pattaya.

 

Everyone staying in condos through AirBnB and at larger modern hotels will work in the future.   

The future is Electric scooters, bicycle rentals and walking in Neo- Pattaya

Cars are dangerous, polluting, and just plain old school.

Totally unnecessary when it comes to proper Beach Town vibe 

[trainman34014]

Can't wait to see what 'Normal' looks like by 2023 !

 

Chinese investors must be licking their lips at all the possibilities in the redundant Hotels market by then.

[TaoNow]

Regarding the potential loss of market share of global sex tourists to Thailand due to the shut-down of the Thai red light zones:

 

Mainstream Thailand never wanted those sex tourists in the first place, and had to turn a blind eye.

 

So, I would imagine that most Thais are heaving a sigh of relief that, if there is one silver lining of Covid, it is the decimation of the sex tourism industry which so shamed Thailand in the past.

 

Remember the Longman Dictionary fiasco?

 

I guarantee you that most Thais never want the country to return to that kind of dishonorable reputation.

 

And there will be powerful social forces to try to keep it from re-surfacing.

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

80% of hotels shut till October - won't be back to normal until 2023

Good job I have a tent then. ????

[BritManToo]

5 hours ago, Poet said:

Well, are you suggesting that the whole thing is being staged and that the governments actually want some pretext to lockdown again?

I'm not suggesting anything beyond more Europe/UK wide lockdowns seem likely in the near future.

I find the enthusiasm democratically elected western governments display for locking up their own citizens and removing their freedoms is surprising.

 

Back to the OP, I'm surprised that so many Thai hotels have managed to stay afloat this long, I suspect most of them will never return to normal (with their current owners).

Edited May 4, 2021 by BritManToo

[GinBoy2]

2 hours ago, TaoNow said:

Regarding the potential loss of market share of global sex tourists to Thailand due to the shut-down of the Thai red light zones:

 

Mainstream Thailand never wanted those sex tourists in the first place, and had to turn a blind eye.

 

So, I would imagine that most Thais are heaving a sigh of relief that, if there is one silver lining of Covid, it is the decimation of the sex tourism industry which so shamed Thailand in the past.

 

Remember the Longman Dictionary fiasco?

 

I guarantee you that most Thais never want the country to return to that kind of dishonorable reputation.

 

And there will be powerful social forces to try to keep it from re-surfacing.

And, as much as I hate to say this, but the sex tourism industry is probably going to be the first sector to rebound!

 

The underlying forces that drive, poor undereducated women and middle aged men with money to burn, covid or not doesn't change that dynamic.

 

So my prediction is that as soon as travel restrictions ease, NEP will be the first places to rebound, and the buses from Isaan will be full of their young maidens ready to fill the place

[trainman34014]

3 hours ago, TaoNow said:

Regarding the potential loss of market share of global sex tourists to Thailand due to the shut-down of the Thai red light zones:

 

Mainstream Thailand never wanted those sex tourists in the first place, and had to turn a blind eye.

 

So, I would imagine that most Thais are heaving a sigh of relief that, if there is one silver lining of Covid, it is the decimation of the sex tourism industry which so shamed Thailand in the past.

 

Remember the Longman Dictionary fiasco?

 

I guarantee you that most Thais never want the country to return to that kind of dishonorable reputation.

 

And there will be powerful social forces to try to keep it from re-surfacing.

Mud Sticks Chum; it ain't gonna go away !

[daveAustin]

11 hours ago, bangkok blue said:

You shouldn't drain the pool long term. The heat and strong sun will crack the tiles.

Smaller hotels will suffer badly.

Bigger hotels who have associations with tour companies and travel agencies might see some growth Q4 2021 / Q1 2022, but by no means the levels pre-covid.

Hotels have been approached to be quarantine facilities. Closure of restaurants and ban on banquets + little compensation from govt vs paying staff salaries vs laying staff off, needs to be considered. 

The powers that be have far more interest in buying submarines and tanks instead of helping hotels and restaurants in catastrophic financial hardship.

Its every man for themselves in survival mode. By not announcing an official lockdown means they aren't liable to help.

May God have mercy on Thailand if the country doesn't open by Q4 this year!

Main reason is ground water could pop a concrete pool out the ground and trash tiling, while liner on lined pool will shrink. Pools should not be emptied if one can avoid it, period. They will simply turn off heating, if any, and use minimal chems since there will be no demand. ????

 

It’s a sad state of affairs. They could do with eating a bit of humble pie, but all this is ruining people. 

[daveAustin]

12 hours ago, BritManToo said:

50-75% of the UK is out of money, combination of COVID, Brexit and Zero hour contracts.

Brexit and covid haven’t made all that much difference to the average Joe to be fair. If anything, people are generally more flush than precovid as they haven’t really spent anything for 12m. Hospitality industry sucks but that will turn around massively.  Zero hour: small part of the workforce.