Expert: High COVID Cases Justify Lockdown

[VBF]

2 minutes ago, Thunglom said:

Austrlia largely regulates Covid restrictions on a state by state basis.

I believe USA does the same; come to that, England, Scotland and Wales have different rules.

However, I'm not sure what point you're making?

Edited July 7, 2021 by VBF

[Surelynot]

Experts, texperts, choking smokers........UK doesn't listen to experts anymore........hasn't done them any harm....Oh! Wait.

[placeholder]

21 minutes ago, connda said:

If I was a science fiction writer, I'd use the events that transpired since October 2020 as the basis for a prequel for Orwell's 1984.  Extending that out for the next 10 years isn't that difficult.  It would be entertaining thought-experiment as well as perhaps uncannily accurate. 

Repeatedly referring to the future as some kind of evidence. Is that all you can do?

[placeholder]

29 minutes ago, connda said:

Provide me a link to a peer reviewed scientific study publish in a medical journal that unequivocally proves that those without one of the many different Covid vaccines pose a risk to those who are vaccinated  - not a CNN (or MSM) opinion piece that bases its opinion on an "expert." "Experts are a dime a dozen and unfortunately most have conflicts of interest.   But congratulation on parroting the proper talking points.  The CNN piece caught on like wildfire.  All CNN has to do is claim their source is an "expert" and nothing else need to be prove. Turn you brain off and tune in. 
Nope.  Peer-reviewed, published science.  Anything else is hearsay.

You don't need a peer review. It's obvious that if people inoculated with covid are still susceptible to infection than those that are infected are a threat to them. And it has been show epidemiologically that those who are inoculated are less of a threat to infect others. That's obvious since the transmission of the virus has overall declined sharply. We see evidence for that in the USA where counties where vaccination is lower have a much higher rate of infection and hospitalization.

[Thunglom]

44 minutes ago, VBF said:

I believe USA does the same; come to that, England, Scotland and Wales have different rules.

However, I'm not sure what point you're making?

te point was being made about unrestricted travel around Oz, which is not actually true -as different states had/have different requirements. I believe in some cases there has been federal rulings but it is normally consensus between the premiers and their cohorts. Oz's big problem is similar to Thailand's in that they have up till now kept infections lw but have not taken the opportunity to roll out vaccinations. This with new variants leaves them open to some more every waves in the future.

[EricTh]

18 hours ago, Caldera said:

Calling it a 4th wave is absurd. The 3rd wave, triggered by VIP partying and Songkran travel, has shown no signs of abating. It already had Delta mixed in back in April; what we see now isn't a new wave, just Delta outpacing the other variants.

 

The 3rd wave is the UK variant which started in Bangkok

 

The 4th wave is caused by the Indian variant so it's not related to the third wave.

 

Obviously, the Indian variant didn't come from the third wave people. How it came into Thailand is a mystery especially since there is supposed to be Covid test & 14 days quarantine etc.

 

It goes to show that the testing of foreigners is not foolproof.

 

So the third wave hasn't stopped but the fourth wave has already started.

Edited July 7, 2021 by EricTh

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, EricTh said:

 

The 3rd wave is the UK variant which started in Bangkok

 

The 4th wave is caused by the Indian variant so it's not related to the third wave.

 

Obviously, the Indian variant didn't come from the third wave people. How it came into Thailand is a mystery especially since there is supposed to be Covid test & 14 days quarantine etc.

 

It goes to show that the testing of foreigners is not foolproof.

 

So the third wave hasn't stopped but the fourth wave has already started.

given the porousness of the border between thailand and myanmar, not much of a mystery at all. As tests of Burmese workers showed.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

given the porousness of the border between thailand and myanmar, not much of a mystery at all. As tests of Burmese workers showed.

Wow, you actually went and blamed the porous borders and the migrants, but not the Thais that were untested and not locked into the factories, construction sites, or work housing, for the spread and not the Thai Government, your batting 1000 today.

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wow, you actually went and blamed the porous borders and the migrants, but not the Thais that were untested and not locked into the factories, construction sites, or work housing, for the spread and not the Thai Government, your batting 1000 today.

Clearly you didn't read what I was writing in response to. Here it is again for your edification:

Obviously, the Indian variant didn't come from the third wave people. How it came into Thailand is a mystery especially since there is supposed to be Covid test & 14 days quarantine etc.

 

It goes to show that the testing of foreigners is not foolproof.

 

So the third wave hasn't stopped but the fourth wave has already started.

[tlandtday]

lockdowns do little the answer is to isolate the elderly and those with preconditions...  what is the difference if thais congregate on the beach in small groups or do so in a small room?

[superal]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Yet the UK is vaccinated, well a very large percentage is and Thailand is not vaccinated.  If the UK were not vaccinated they would still be in their lockdown phase. Australia has not vaccinated many people either.

Here is what is happening in the UK . By the 19th July when all covid restrictions are dropped , all who want the vaccine will have had it . The current rate of infection is doubling every 12 days and will hit around 100,00 infections per day by the end of the month . The infection rate will be exacerbated by the new freedom . The logic is indeed called herd immunity and will lead to some preventable deaths to those with underlying conditions and the unvaccinated . The UK government's logic is we will have to live with this new virus which is on a parallel with the flu , however the successful vaccination programme has led to a nation that the majority have a high level of immunity and although the infection rates will grow , the severity or potence of the virus has been diminished to such an extent that only a small percentage will have to be hospitalized .  I believe that the UK trend will be adopted globally along with annual vaccination boosters .   Vaccine production rates will grow to the level that there will not be a shortage as is now the case . 

[VBF]

16 minutes ago, superal said:

Here is what is happening in the UK . By the 19th July when all covid restrictions are dropped , all who want the vaccine will have had it . The current rate of infection is doubling every 12 days and will hit around 100,00 infections per day by the end of the month . The infection rate will be exacerbated by the new freedom . The logic is indeed called herd immunity and will lead to some preventable deaths to those with underlying conditions and the unvaccinated . The UK government's logic is we will have to live with this new virus which is on a parallel with the flu , however the successful vaccination programme has led to a nation that the majority have a high level of immunity and although the infection rates will grow , the severity or potence of the virus has been diminished to such an extent that only a small percentage will have to be hospitalized .  I believe that the UK trend will be adopted globally along with annual vaccination boosters .   Vaccine production rates will grow to the level that there will not be a shortage as is now the case . 

Hopefully you're right but as long as countries like Thailand and Brazil are ruled by uncaring idiots, it's a sadly forlorn hope. 

[geisha]

Bit late in announcing the Delta variant, it’s been around for months. And if Thailand doesn’t vaccinate its people urgently then there will be chaos and then another variant etc etc.

[thailand49]

More beds, you had a year to prepare!  Here is a tip that most likely will go in one ear out the other like always but I will suggest it anyways. With beds more lung infection think about getting more ventilator it would also help if you urge demand from your leaders kick out the cash and ink the deal for the Moderna!  No money what a joke!????

[Pracha Duang]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

For almost an entire year , Thailand's covid deaths were between 0 and 3. How can you possibly say this is the 4th wave. I'd say it's the first. or second at most.

You can’t honestly believe that ????. Thailand has always had rampant covid from day 1. It’s just that they only started reporting it more accurately recently for obvious reasons. Everyone I know first got hit way back in April, 2020. Mild shortness of breath for most, takes you out for about 12 hours. Basically a very week flu at best.  Most people i know got covid multiple times in 2020. Each time you get it, the body fights it off faster and faster to the point where you stop noticing it.

[metisdead]

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[dinsdale]

11 hours ago, ezzra said:

27,000 infected in the UK yesterday and no lockdown, infect, in a few days the UK will be open to business as usual, what the UK health authorities knows that the Thai or even the Aussies don't? whom, in Australia enough for someone to sneeze to put the whole city into lockdown...

UK is banking on the vaccinated. Hospitalisation at this point is still low. We'll see.

[sandyf]

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, so far, while cases have risen dramatically, hospitalizations and deaths have not. That's down to widespread vaccination.

That is a UK perspective in the light of previous figures. 

With infections currently about 25K, hospitalisation has reached 400/day and deaths about 20/day. It is estimated that infection will reach 100K which would put hospitalisation at about 1600/day and deaths at around 80/day. Widespread vaccination only stops that being 1000/day.

Here in Thailand 50 deaths in a day is seen as armageddon but in the UK that level of mortality is being perceived as acceptable.

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, VBF said:

But as has been stated many times, the number of "cases" is much less important if people are vaccinated - which is where UK is scoring.

This was the original comment.

"You don't wait until a disaster becomes reality to lockdown. You should lockdown before the disaster happens."

 

The UK is pursuing a policy that could lead to deaths of around 70 - 80 a day, as opposed to the hundreds a day they have seen in the past. 

Here in Thailand deaths have been around the 50/day mark and seen as a disaster that could have been avoided by in his words an "incompetent government" , but yet a foreign government deliberately heading into what could be higher death rate is quite acceptable.

 

[placeholder]

27 minutes ago, sandyf said:

This was the original comment.

"You don't wait until a disaster becomes reality to lockdown. You should lockdown before the disaster happens."

 

The UK is pursuing a policy that could lead to deaths of around 70 - 80 a day, as opposed to the hundreds a day they have seen in the past. 

Here in Thailand deaths have been around the 50/day mark and seen as a disaster that could have been avoided by in his words an "incompetent government" , but yet a foreign government deliberately heading into what could be higher death rate is quite acceptable.

 

I don't think that your projection is valid. Vaccination is still ongoing and while over 60% of the total population has received at least one vaccination, there's still a lot more to go. And those who are already fully vaccinated tend to be older and less healthy.

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, placeholder said:

I don't think that your projection is valid. Vaccination is still ongoing and while over 60% of the total population has received at least one vaccination, there's still a lot more to go. And those who are already fully vaccinated tend to be older and less healthy.

60% of what population.  As far as I know Thailand has nowhere close to that amount of individuals vaccinated with 1 jab so far.  That would mean that almost 42 million doses of vaccine have been given which is not even possible based upon data.

 

Covid World Vaccination Tracker - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

[placeholder]

Just now, ThailandRyan said:

60% of what population.  As far as I know Thailand has nowhere close to that amount of individuals vaccinated with 1 jab so far.  That would mean that almost 42 million doses of vaccine have been given which is not even possible based upon data.

 

Covid World Vaccination Tracker - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The only projection that SandyF made was for the UK.

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, placeholder said:

The only projection that SandyF made was for the UK.

Thanks must have missed that post.

[VBF]

41 minutes ago, sandyf said:

This was the original comment.

"You don't wait until a disaster becomes reality to lockdown. You should lockdown before the disaster happens."

 

The UK is pursuing a policy that could lead to deaths of around 70 - 80 a day, as opposed to the hundreds a day they have seen in the past. 

Here in Thailand deaths have been around the 50/day mark and seen as a disaster that could have been avoided by in his words an "incompetent government" , but yet a foreign government deliberately heading into what could be higher death rate is quite acceptable.

 

I think perhaps you should be looking at trends rather than actual numbers.

The UK infection rate is creeping up....but....the hospitalisation and death rates are plummeting. Also, those getting infected after having been vaccinated are much less sick than before vaccination. 

Based on that, IMO, the UK is doing it right with a hopefully bright future, but the future situation in Thailand is, sadly, unknown but predictably the trend will continue to increase until they vaccinate efficiently..

Edited July 7, 2021 by VBF

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, VBF said:

I think perhaps you should be looking at trends rather than actual numbers.

The UK infection rate is creeping up....but....the hospitalisation and death rates are plummeting. Also, those getting infected after having been vaccinated are much less sick than before vaccination. 

Based on that, IMO, the UK is doing it right with a hopefully bright future, but the future situation in Thailand is, sadly, unknown but predictably the trend will continue to increase until they vaccinate efficiently..

Actually daily death rates are creeping up a bit. Got as low as about 6, now about 18

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom

Edited July 7, 2021 by placeholder

[unblocktheplanet]

Lockdown dark red zones would go a long way to limiting spread.

[KhaoYai]

13 hours ago, ezzra said:

27,000 infected in the UK yesterday and no lockdown, infect, in a few days the UK will be open to business as usual, what the UK health authorities knows that the Thai or even the Aussies don't? whom, in Australia enough for someone to sneeze to put the whole city into lockdown...

27,000 and 9 deaths. The UK government had the foresight to order vaccines before they had even finished being tested and the UK's vaccination programme actually works. Its not about what the UK knows, its about the difference in actions.

 

I'm not a Johnson supporter in any way but I do agree with him that we are going to have to learn to live with this virus.  The UK's policy is to get enough people vaccinated to be able to achieve a situation where living with the virus allows a return to as near normal as possible. There will still be infections and sadly, deaths - just as there is with the flu.  Infection rates are rising fast here but they are not translating into serious illness , hospitalisation and deaths.  At some point, the infections themselves should begin to fall.

 

The Johnson government got a lot of things wrong and will have a lot of questions to answer when this pandemic is over but it seems the one thing they got right is the vaccination programme.

 

Fingers crossed.

[Gandtee]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Wow, you actually went and blamed the porous borders and the migrants, but not the Thais that were untested and not locked into the factories, construction sites, or work housing, for the spread and not the Thai Government, your batting 1000 today.

 When Thailand was patting itself on the back and saying "Look at us. How good we are. Hardly any infections or deaths." The reason may have been because they were hardly doing any testing and didn't know who was infected. When testing was speeded up, more people were shown to be infected. That's when the chickens came home to roost.

[placeholder]

22 minutes ago, Gandtee said:

 When Thailand was patting itself on the back and saying "Look at us. How good we are. Hardly any infections or deaths." The reason may have been because they were hardly doing any testing and didn't know who was infected. When testing was speeded up, more people were shown to be infected. That's when the chickens came home to roost.

Doubtful. Hospitals weren't being stressed back then.

[Gandtee]

19 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Doubtful. Hospitals weren't being stressed back then.

Maybe because people were living with it, thinking they had a bad cold. About that time, a friend of mine stayed in bed with what he thought was flu. On reflection he now thinks it could have been covid. Who knows? There must be many infected, with minor symptoms and going about their business oblivious.  

Edited July 7, 2021 by Gandtee
Additional words.