6 minutes ago, hioctane said:

NOBODY has been able to reach herd immunity naturally.

Indeed, it’s a nebulous term with no specificity in relation to level of infections required or actual immunity. From what I read, the percentage of population infection required, also varies according to the make up of different virus strains, in particular it’s transmissibility.

 

the oft touted 70% level seems now to have been superseded by 80%, but even then I think most experts in field acknowledge that it’s a guesstimate.

 

herd immunity isn’t a strategy, it’s a lack of any strategy.

 

 

5 minutes ago, hioctane said:

When everyone is vaccinated… mass vaccinate in 1-2 months.

And give everyone in Thailand a few million baht while they are at it.

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

Indeed, it’s a nebulous term with no specificity in relation to level of infections required or actual immunity. From what I read, the percentage of population infection required, also varies according to the make up of different virus strains, in particular it’s transmissibility.

 

the oft touted 70% level seems now to have been superseded by 80%, but even then I think most experts in field acknowledge that it’s a guesstimate.

 

herd immunity isn’t a strategy, it’s a lack of any strategy.

 

 

Something is causing a big drop in cases in India…..

11 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Tweeted early this morning:

 

BREAKING: The Governor of Kanchanaburi has ordered the lockdown of Sangkhlaburi. No one is allowed to enter or leave from 9-22 July. In addition there is a nightly curfew from 10pm-4am when people are forbidden to leave their homes #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413200001069629445

 

Is Sangkhlaburi just one town, or has he locked down the whole province?

2 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

This report and earlier one for another province has surprised me. I assumed the lockdown of outbound travel would start with Bangkok.

I wonder if Phuket will join the list. 

Might be situation where all the governor's follow one by one to be seen as being pro-active.

Yes as happened at Songkran when many provincial governors had to act because of the complacency of the government

Where are the Province by Province breakdowns?  Need to see where each province is headed ...

 

Where is the breakdown for Phuket?  All I see are imported Covid-19 cases reported from the Sandbox ...

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Is Sangkhlaburi just one town, or has he locked down the whole province?

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjVv8jd9NTxAhX0xzgGHSYHACsQFjAAegQIBxAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwikitravel.org%2Fen%2FSangkhlaburi&usg=AOvVaw3R0KgOYjLa6xgPIJaGx9jm

Can't work out any of the Thai's governments Covid moves . It seems to be run by a sloppy bunch of amateurish medical students. Lets face the problem head on, lets tell the truth and please do tell everyone that Singapore does not even recognize the Chinese Sinovac vaccine.  Thailand you're going down the sewer, those submarines just might come in handy after all..   

1 minute ago, wensiensheng said:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjVv8jd9NTxAhX0xzgGHSYHACsQFjAAegQIBxAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwikitravel.org%2Fen%2FSangkhlaburi&usg=AOvVaw3R0KgOYjLa6xgPIJaGx9jm

Thanks.  So it's just a border area of the province.  I had assumed he had locked down the whole province.  I guess this is the bubble & seal policy used fairly successfully back in December in Samut Sakhon.

8 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Firstly Thailand doesn't have a government it has a military trictatorship and it's fairly tricky.Their response will be to look after their vested interests as best they can until the majority of people kick them out which is unlikely to happen.They will implement various restrictions to try and give the impression they are doing something for the people without using the word lockdown,because if they use the word lockdown the sandbox will become a sandstorm and covid will sand kick in their face.They will also continue to make promises that they never deliver on and most importantly they will keep their fingers on their triggers.They will continue to try and control the information which is becoming increasingly more difficult for them.

A Thai person said Prayut doesn't want to lock down in fear of international emasbarrassment. Looks like that embarrassment is going to be unavoidable.

that was fast, over 3k daily jump.

I hope it's not going be jumping like that every day.

Did they suddenly include prison and army barracks statistics?

53 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Very often the health experts are accused of fear mongering and creating panic by modeling potential high numbers unless steps are taken, in this case they have all underestimated how quickly this would take over Thailand.

 

What half hearted measures are we going to see that will address the exponential spread of the virus? A two week soft lockdown will have little impact, only strict measures will have any hope of denting the curve and give enough time for the health service to catch up. 

 

Its not only Bangkok and surrounding Provinces now, its spread throughout Thailand and unless measures are taken throughout then its possible the health service will get stretched throughout Thailand and a complete collapse, a nightmare scenario.

 

Rolling 7 day average (up to 7th July only) which includes prison cases and bar chart of community cases.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/thailand

In just a little over one month the cases have truly taken off like a rocket.  You wonder what could have been had measures been put in place.  Thinking about what could have been or what may occur is no longer worth discussing.  What is worth the discussion, looking at the above graphs, is what the hell are you going to do now Prayut and Anutin.  Folks are suffering everywhere, and yet you have no money to help them out if you lockdown the whole country.  In my view it is time you and your crew step aside and let people, such as doctors in the game, and some highly influential people you have sidelined step in and make a new plan that will slow this, or better yet start sending teams to each housing area and start vaccinating as y0u go down the streets and into the large condo blocks.  However, that's not feasible as there are no vaccinations and many do not want the sinovac, and I am talking about Thais, not just expats.....

57 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Well that escalated quickly.

Did you really expect anything different based on the other countries who were hit by the Delta variant.

1 minute ago, internationalism said:

that was fast, 3.5k daily jump.

I hope it's not going be jumping like that every day.

Did they suddenly included prison and army barracks statistics?

Maybe you have been sleeping for a few weeks they always include prison in the stats always mentioned separate. 

44 minutes ago, anchadian said:

The BP have reported that the Dept of Disease control have defended the govt decision to acquire additional Sinovac

 

 

Because nothing else is coming into the country. No Moderna. No Pfizer. No J&J. They aren't going to get here until next year--some time. And Sinovac is better than nothing.

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

A Thai person said Prayut doesn't want to lock down in fear of international emasbarrassment. Looks like that embarrassment is going to be unavoidable.

Should listen less to thai people who often do not have a clue what is happening in their own country .

 

he does not want a lockdown because if a lockdown , government has to pay money , which they do not want to pay and do not have 

Just now, brewsterbudgen said:

Thanks.  So it's just a border area of the province.  I had assumed he had locked down the whole province.  I guess this is the bubble & seal policy used fairly successfully back in December in Samut Sakhon.

No bubble and seal is very different, you should already know that seeing as you've been posting here for so long, this as stated is a lockdown

5 minutes ago, HaoleBoy said:

Where are the Province by Province breakdowns?  Need to see where each province is headed ...

 

Where is the breakdown for Phuket?  All I see are imported Covid-19 cases reported from the Sandbox ...

Only a guess, but thinking that later today when lot of travel out of Bangkok announced will be restricted then the governor's may very well follow suit.

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Thanks.  So it's just a border area of the province.  I had assumed he had locked down the whole province.  I guess this is the bubble & seal policy used fairly successfully back in December in Samut Sakhon.

I think they must have stumbled across a cluster that is bigger than just one village, so rolled all the villages into one area and sealed off the area.

 

just assuming, I have no info.

55 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Chonburi Public Health Office has just announced they have 317 new cases. Most new cases are in Chonburi City (76), Bang Lamung/Pattaya (51), and Si Racha (73). The total cases so far is now 10,892 with 3,788 remaining in care #Thailand

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1413289166448652289

And that's without much testing and from people showing up to get treated as walk-ins, but then I could be wrong, maybe D'man can enlighten us as he has his finger on the pulse of all......

42 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I haven’t seen it but I assume it will be a “better than nothing” argument. Which has some merit, although one suspects that there will be no follow up booster shot of an mRNA vaccine.

 

Yes, it is better than nothing. It will save some people's lives. Get what you can, when you can. Soon, if not already, desperate people will be clamoring for Sinovac.

3 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

And that's without much testing and from people showing up to get treated as walk-ins, but then I could be wrong, maybe D'man can enlighten us as he has his finger on the pulse of all......

He should be able to. He has all the answers.

This thread is hectic, I almost hit the like button for one of my own posts lol

57 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

1) I am assuming that hospital walk-in cases are a large component of the total new cases, which tells us that even higher numbers are coming soon.

2) The difference between yesterday’s discharges and admissions were about 5,000, meaning that the supposedly full system absorbed 5,000 patients.  

Your still stuck on this topic, time to put your view on the admissions versus releases aside as to many are sitting at home waiting to be moved to a facility.  Channel 3 did a big story on that this morning where they showed them loading entire families into vans to be transported as the ambulances are overwhelmed.  They then show the crematorium with caskets stacked waiting to be burned in the temples cremation chamber.  Those poor guys wearing the PPE's are also overworked and I am sure the emotions of families not being able to attend and only see the video being made is overwhelming for them to as they do not get to say goodbye to their dearly loved one.....Start looking at the bigger picture D'man.

Found some numbers for Chiang Mai from yesterday ...

 

Today (8 July 64) at the Covid-19 Situation Command Center, Chiang Mai Province, Dr. Songyot Khamchai, Head of the Communicable Disease Control Group Chiang Mai Provincial Public Health Office Announcing the situation of the Covid-19 outbreak in Chiang Mai province today that 31 new cases were found today, bringing the total number of infected people to 4,295, with 4,124 recovered. There are still people being treated in all types of hospitals. 141 cases, including 104 public hospitals, 37 private hospitals, and four are being treated at provincial hospitals and four are under investigation, with no new deaths today. Causing the cumulative death toll of Chiang Mai to remain at 26, while those who are still in treatment They were divided into 88 asymptomatic or mild (green) patients, 40 moderate (yellow), 11 moderately severe (orange), and 2 severe (red).

 

https://cdn.chiangmainews.co.th/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/08192544/03-628x600.jpg

 

Screening for COVID-19 Among the exposed or high-risk people yesterday (July 7, 64), 1,874 people tested, 31 positive, or 1.64 percent. The risk factor for infection was still the one who traveled. Coming from the highest and strict control area It is then found that the infection continues in the family, community and workplace. 

50 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Mostly I think they spell exponential incorrectly especially exponential deniers.I rarely spell everting correctly I mostly rely on  builtin spell check and google I'm bloody hopless at spelling.

Yet you are correctly right in the way exponential things have gone.

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

A Thai person said Prayut doesn't want to lock down in fear of international emasbarrassment. Looks like that embarrassment is going to be unavoidable.

Lock Down !!!  .......................... how about "Step Down", him and his whole cabinet should go now

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

This thread is hectic, I almost hit the like button for one of my own posts lol

We all have had our little ego trip moments.

Mine was reading a longish post thinking ..........this guy is actually making lot of sense and then realized it was my own post. D.H

1 minute ago, ThailandRyan said:

Your still stuck on this topic, time to put your view on the admissions versus releases aside as to many are sitting at home waiting to be moved to a facility.  Channel 3 did a big story on that this morning where they showed them loading entire families into vans to be transported as the ambulances are overwhelmed.  They then show the crematorium with caskets stacked waiting to be burned in the temples cremation chamber.  Those poor guys wearing the PPE's are also overworked and I am sure the emotions of families not being able to attend and only see the video being made is overwhelming for them to as they do not get to say goodbye to their dearly loved one.....Start looking at the bigger picture D'man.

I am just talking about one snippet of data (hospital walk-in cases) that has some near term predictive value. 
 

yes, I know that people are waiting to be admitted. Yes, I know that it rained somewhere. But, to do data analysis, you have to ignore stuff that isn’t predictive.

 

I am not saying that data analysis of this one snippet can tell us everything about the epidemic. The problem is that the Data Deniers are as uncomfortable talking about data analysis as Covid Deniers are about modern medicine. So, they act out. It is much more fun for them to post incessantly about the Thai government.

12 minutes ago, internationalism said:

I hope it's not going be jumping like that every day

it won't - they don't have the testing capacity for it to go much higher