Thailand warns daily COVID-19 cases could hit 30,000 in worst case

[edwinchester]

10 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

Could you give a source for the stat “average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co morbidities”.

 

thanks

They can't because the average age of those dying in Thailand is in their 60's.

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

well let me tell you a little secret. thailand allready has more than 40K cases daily.

we do not know about it because testing is not being done widely as it should be.

today i was looking for a paid test so i can fly from phuket.

cheapest price i found was 3000 baht.

that is A LOT !!!

in other EU countries price is 20-30 EURO  oR FREE!!!

[Artisi]

10 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

I think they have made projections based some scientific analysis of data available to them, but not to you. It may or may not end up being accurate.

 

Your comment is based on absolutely nothing, and says absolutely nothing.

 

I know who I would rather listen to.

Your post doesn't say too much either as the government's numbers have as usual just been plucked out of the air. Let's hope the numbers are way wrong and the numbers don't reach anywhere near to their guess. 

[IamNoone88]

How about projections for suicide and economic ruin of small business? Loss of jobs? That would be a better measure.

[TheFishman1]

 Who can really believe the governments numbers everybody knows that it’s much much higher and they were going to wait two more months for a lockdown they keep saying how many vaccines are coming but yet the percent of people that receive the vaccine is unbelievably low the government is totally 100% guilty of covering up the truth Amazing Thailand TIT

[wensiensheng]

40 minutes ago, Artisi said:

Your post doesn't say too much either as the government's numbers have as usual just been plucked out of the air. Let's hope the numbers are way wrong and the numbers don't reach anywhere near to their guess. 

Well, what my post pointed out was that the gentleman who aired the possibility of cases rising to 30k per day, did so using data in his possession. It might be wrong or incomplete data, and perhaps he misinterpreted it and will be wrong, but as a government official with some responsibility for managing the virus in Thailand, there is a high likelihood that he had some basis for saying what he did. So my post said a lot.

 

you however have simply jumped on a similar band wagon and said that it was plucked out of thin air. Although you don’t actually know that do you? It’s just a popular thing to say without any specific knowledge at all. 
 

 

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by wensiensheng

[Gottfrid]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

daily infection rates could roughly treble to reach 30,000 under a worst-case scenario

And what facts are they basing that, taken out of thin air number?

[wensiensheng]

53 minutes ago, edwinchester said:

They can't because the average age of those dying in Thailand is in their 60's.

Yes, he was just baiting. Which is why I asked for a source.

[wensiensheng]

Just now, Gottfrid said:

And what facts are they basing that, taken out of thin air number?

I think you have to ask him. Nobody here has access to his data. Although if I look at the UK as a potential model, if anything the number seems on the low side.

[wensiensheng]

8 hours ago, Khabib said:

Available to who?, you must be having a laugh

Don’t be ridiculous. Available to the DDC. That is obvious from my post.

 

[brucegoniners]

Last week the same people said cases could hit 10K daily BY THE END OF THE YEAR.

 

I think the sky is the limit if the government doesn't act and get a hold on things.

 

Otherwise this will keep getting worse and worse and worse.

 

A week ago it was 7K a day. Now 11. At this rate we could be at that 30K number in the next few weeks.

[wensiensheng]

1 minute ago, brucegoniners said:

Last week the same people said cases could hit 10K daily BY THE END OF THE YEAR.

 

I think the sky is the limit if the government doesn't act and get a hold on things.

 

Otherwise this will keep getting worse and worse and worse.

 

A week ago it was 7K a day. Now 11. At this rate we could be at that 30K number in the next few weeks.

I must say that I don’t disagree. Looking at how the UK has fared, suggests that much higher numbers can be anticipated, and some would say that lack of testing means Thailand is already there. Also possible, although impossible to prove.

 

Thailands case numbers might start to deviate from those in the UK in the next couple of weeks though. The UK is completely open and parts of Thailand are now closing down fairly drastically. So 2-4 weeks May see slowing of case numbers here, whilst the UK continues to accelerate. But that’s cases, deaths will be very different when comparing the two countries, Thailand will suffer on that I feel due to low vaccinations.

[ftpjtm]

12 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

 

'approved a plan' - translation : NOT ORDERED

 

But the important part, how to split up the kickbacks, has been settled. 

[vandeventer]

12 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Predicting numbers is like guessing the lottery numbers. Short while back UK was under 2,000 a day now above 50K, albeit with a well vaccinated populace.

2,000 here became 3,000, became 4,000, then 6,000 and in no time has almost doubled with not much really in the way of a lockdown, which seems to stem from the welfare payments needed if they do call that. I do not see 30K as the worst case scenario, rather a likely one. The worst case could be way higher, as other Asian countries can testify.

This may be the way to go as we are running out of time, for good vaccines. Now where did I leave my shovel?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k__jV62Yv_0

 

[morrobay]

This orange bar graph is enough data to make the prediction. See my calculation from yesterday. That gives total cases in two weeks. Just subtract today's cases and divide by 14

 

 

Edited July 20, 2021 by morrobay

[malibukid]

12 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

The current mortality rate for covid in Thailand is 0.8%
 

Daily cases of 30,000 would lead to around 240 deaths - or four people in every million of the population. 
 

The average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co-morbidities.

 

 

thats not the point.  you do not want this in any form.  there can be long term health consequences even if you survive. 

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand's COVID-19 task force on Monday called on people to follow stricter containment measures, warning that without cooperation record daily infection rates could roughly treble to reach 30,000 under a worst-case scenario.

If they're hinting that it might happen you can bet your last dinner it's going to reach those numbers..

[hotchilli]

12 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Predicting numbers is like guessing the lottery numbers. Short while back UK was under 2,000 a day now above 50K, albeit with a well vaccinated populace.

2,000 here became 3,000, became 4,000, then 6,000 and in no time has almost doubled with not much really in the way of a lockdown, which seems to stem from the welfare payments needed if they do call that. I do not see 30K as the worst case scenario, rather a likely one. The worst case could be way higher, as other Asian countries can testify.

The difference being from the UK to here is that after vaccination infection is less likely to hospitalise or kill people, 

It's just unfortunate we have a government that's hardly vaccinated anyone... 

[hotchilli]

11 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

I think they have made projections based some scientific analysis of data available to them, but not to you. It may or may not end up being accurate.

 

Your comment is based on absolutely nothing, and says absolutely nothing.

 

I know who I would rather listen to.

Yourself?

[RBOP]

8 hours ago, Sheryl said:

There is no possible source for this as it is completely untrue.

 

In Thailand, most COVID deaths have been in people aged 40 -65. I don't offhand recall ever seeing a report of a COVID death in someone over 80 here, if there were any they were very, very few. There have been deaths in people well under 40 and even in children.

 

Even in Western countries where the disease has swept through old age homes, the average age of COVID deaths is  below 80. 

CCSA reports Covid19 death cases by age (medians and ranges) everyday. 

[Swampy999]

12 hours ago, RandolphGB said:

The current mortality rate for covid in Thailand is 0.8%
 

Daily cases of 30,000 would lead to around 240 deaths - or four people in every million of the population. 
 

The average age of those deaths is 80+ with two co-morbidities.

 

 

Ahhhh statistics 555, or to put it another way, yesterday 11,784 new cases, 81 deaths 0.8%. Let's focus on the infected numbers not the total population as not everyone is infected, yet. If you were unfortunate enough to become infected you would be looking at odds of 145 to 1 of dying (yesterday). Would you enter a room of 145 people knowing one will be shot? No neither would I. 

[RBOP]

Krungsri forecasts has been accurate so far. Not sure about the Mahidol graph. They can't even eyeball trends.

[actonion]

 Im sure  it could hit  much more than 30,000 if they dont work harder to curb it..

 

Its seems  the Virus is working harder than this government, but they've been vaccinated so "Im alright jack"

Edited July 20, 2021 by actonion

[dlclark97]

At the rate this virus is spreading, it is not the time to be assigning blame to anyone.  Look at Indonesia with over 50,000 new cases a day now.  The Delta variant that is rapidly spreading is a very serious threat.  If that rate ever applied here the entire population would be sick in less than a year.  Let the officials who now know just how dangerous this pandemic has become do their jobs and get vaccines here for everyone.  Until that happens EVERY ONE must do their part that at this time appears to be wearing masks (correctly), actually practicing social distancing, washing hands frequently and minimize unnecessary travels.  And, strictly abide by whatever restrictions the government imposes.   As it is known at this time these steps should at least reduce the spread of the disease.  It is a tough situation caused in part by the earlier successes in controlling the spread of the virus that because of the Delta variant has since gotten out of control.  Do your part!  The life you save may be your own or that of your friends and loved ones.  

[Cadan]

The word plan or planning has a wide meaning here ????. I would rather call it fixing the facts / holes after it’s too late which is rather behind thinking 

[RandolphGB]

1 hour ago, IamNoone88 said:

How about projections for suicide and economic ruin of small business? Loss of jobs? That would be a better measure.

Those statistics don't scare people and make money for the media and big pharma the same that corona does.

[Russell17au]

A lot of people on here will not agree with what I say because they have their heads in the sand and only want to bash the Thai Government. The facts are that the government in every country of the world is in a no win situation. If they do a strict lockdown they will have people commit suicide and businesses close and people be unemployed so no money come in and that will destroy the countries economy. If they don't do a strict lockdown then they will have this virus run riot and many people will die and then the businesses will lose customers and then there will be no income. Another fact is that none of the governments are spreading this virus, it is the people that ignore the rules and take the attitude that "it is my right" and " you can't tell me what to do, I will do what I want" that are spreading this virus. 

[ABCbangkok]

If only they’d test. Then they’d really know the true number of those they can’t help.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[maddermax]

But are the construction sites still operating? They have to be amongst the biggest spreaders.

[shrimpythailand]

8 hours ago, Sheryl said:

There is no possible source for this as it is completely untrue.

 

In Thailand, most COVID deaths have been in people aged 40 -65. I don't offhand recall ever seeing a report of a COVID death in someone over 80 here, if there were any they were very, very few. There have been deaths in people well under 40 and even in children.

 

Even in Western countries where the disease has swept through old age homes, the average age of COVID deaths is  below 80. 

in the UK the average age for death by covid is 82 years old - and with co-morbidities - is on the interweb