Epidemiology Division Expects COVID-19 Infections in Bangkok to Decline in Next 4-6 Weeks

[lks7689]

2 hours ago, Chosenfew said:

“The Wuhan lock down model”, gotta love the threat. 
Interesting tweet from Scott Adams:

How exactly do we know the Delta variant is a natural variation and not a new virus from a lab in China that once again, coincidentally, doesn't have any impact on China?

Is it because no American court found proof of widespread virus fraud?

If China is really that proficient in biochemical warfare, then America wouldn't be lagging behind either. China did have few Delta cases but overall that is because they have by far the strictest border and quarantine measures in place which none in the western world would follow. 

[Mister MXYZPTLK]

Thailand’s Military leaders fighting a losing battle against Covid!  It’s the best Comedy Show on the internet in Years! You can’t make this stuff up!

 

I'm working on a title for it and then will sell it to Netflix. 
 

BTW. Has Thailand ever won a war against an foreign enemy?  They’re losing this battle but I don’t think they’re watching the same news channel as everyone else

[geworthomd]

They are right, I agree.  An epidemic will cycle up and down in a population.  It infects pockets of areas like weed seeds.  Once there is sufficient penetration of those pockets the numbers go down and then it seeds a new pocket.  Antibody life is not that important.  The exposure or the vaccine sensitizes the T cells.  Then upon re-exposure the T-cells turn on and tell the B-cells to start making antibodies again.  Every vaccine does this.  Take hepatitis B vaccine for instance.  After the required does of vaccine, the antibodies disappear.  Currently, it is not recommended to ever get a booster in 5, 10 or 20 years.  It appears that the T-cells may be primed for life.  Upon re-exposure the antibodies are made again.  There are a lot of negative comments about the Thai Government being late on the vaccines.  Do you think they don't know this?  They were the recipients of a lot of Sinovac.  They put their eggs in that basket.  The lockdown cost everyone money.  The government coffers must be hurting as well.  I am very certain they know all of what is going on and they are trying the best they can.  There are some really smart medical doctors advising.  I am sorry for everyone.  If the money isn't there then it isn't there.  What to do but hold on and limit exposure risk factors.  I made an offer to the Thai Medical Council to help the other doctors (I am a doctor).  They really didn't have any emergency pathway for temporary licensing like many other places in the world.  To volunteer in Thailand you need a work permit and for me, a medical license.  Many of the US states have a temporary reciprocity until this problem is under control.  Docs and nurses are working enormous hours.  I would be willing to help but the options are the same as in non-Covid times.  I'm sure this is difficult for all.  It will likely be a pandemic in the world for 4 more years given the graph of time vs vaccine distribution around the world and some papers the epidemiologists have written.  I hope for the best.  God bless everyone.  Every life is important.

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by geworthomd
.

[ThaiKhunThai]

8 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Decline from what exactly? I can’t see infection rate slowing down for at least the next 3-4 weeks. So maybe when Thailand is at 40-50,000 cases per day it might start to decline, but that doesn’t help anyone in the meantime

No…it suddenly has as for today’s figure…mysteriously it has even though yesterday there were 3000+ cases from a chicken farm…mystery…

[Rimmer]

A misleading posts has been removed

[Almer]

The Dr states Bkk is close to 50% inoculated, wow that is some going, do i believe this or not, i would like to  but not easy.

Dear doctor also asks businesses not to shut down or workers will go back to the villages and spread.

Whilst the Wuhan model is frowned upon it worked or appears to have, but central government  controlled it not like Thailand where any governor can order lockdown curfew and business closure as they see fit.

I note the main men have gone quiet  since there flag flying tea on the beach sandbox visit.

[Almer]

54 minutes ago, geworthomd said:

They are right, I agree.  An epidemic will cycle up and down in a population.  It infects pockets of areas like weed seeds.  Once there is sufficient penetration of those pockets the numbers go down and then it seeds a new pocket.  Antibody life is not that important.  The exposure or the vaccine sensitizes the T cells.  Then upon re-exposure the T-cells turn on and tell the B-cells to start making antibodies again.  Every vaccine does this.  Take hepatitis B vaccine for instance.  After the required does of vaccine, the antibodies disappear.  Currently, it is not recommended to ever get a booster in 5, 10 or 20 years.  It appears that the T-cells may be primed for life.  Upon re-exposure the antibodies are made again.  There are a lot of negative comments about the Thai Government being late on the vaccines.  Do you think they don't know this?  They were the recipients of a lot of Sinovac.  They put their eggs in that basket.  The lockdown cost everyone money.  The government coffers must be hurting as well.  I am very certain they know all of what is going on and they are trying the best they can.  There are some really smart medical doctors advising.  I am sorry for everyone.  If the money isn't there then it isn't there.  What to do but hold on and limit exposure risk factors.  I made an offer to the Thai Medical Council to help the other doctors (I am a doctor).  They really didn't have any emergency pathway for temporary licensing like many other places in the world.  To volunteer in Thailand you need a work permit and for me, a medical license.  Many of the US states have a temporary reciprocity until this problem is under control.  Docs and nurses are working enormous hours.  I would be willing to help but the options are the same as in non-Covid times.  I'm sure this is difficult for all.  It will likely be a pandemic in the world for 4 more years given the graph of time vs vaccine distribution around the world and some papers the epidemiologists have written.  I hope for the best.  God bless everyone.  Every life is important.

 

I also offered my services many years ago as a retired accident investigator, that had a muted response also.

[Caspersfriend]

4 hours ago, Chosenfew said:

“The Wuhan lock down model”, gotta love the threat. 
Interesting tweet from Scott Adams:

How exactly do we know the Delta variant is a natural variation and not a new virus from a lab in China that once again, coincidentally, doesn't have any impact on China?

Is it because no American court found proof of widespread virus fraud?

As Delta Variant Spreads, China Lacks Data on Its Covid-19 Vaccines

The spread of the Delta variant is raising fresh concerns about the efficacy of Chinese vaccines, which have been central to inoculation efforts in the developing world, as recent data shows the protection provided by Western vaccines waning against the highly contagious variant.

Chinese officials have been analyzing data from an outbreak of the Delta variant in southern China last month, while Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech Ltd., the country’s leading Covid-19 vaccine developers, have said they are studying Covid-19 variants, including via lab experiments. Both companies have suggested that a third booster shot may be needed to boost protection after their current two-dose regimens.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-delta-variant-spreads-china-lacks-data-on-its-covid-19-vaccines-11625832648

[PETERTHEEATER]

5 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

She died last night. Covid, apparently....

[DjSilver]

10 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Decline from what exactly? I can’t see infection rate slowing down for at least the next 3-4 weeks. So maybe when Thailand is at 40-50,000 cases per day it might start to decline, but that doesn’t help anyone in the meantime

40-50k is not much. In Sweden we had more than 32k new cases every day and if that should be equal to Thailand they need to have more than 220k new cases every day. And I still wouldn't be worried or change my life.

[TheFishman1]

 What he is really saying is we will test less people and the rate of the infection from the virus will go down no worries TiT

[itsari]

Guardian reports there is a one kilometer tailback in Bangkok to be tested for covid 19.

20 percent of covid patients are being turned away from hospitals 

[gk10012001]

6 hours ago, IamNoone88 said:

A decline due to lock down isolation. Open up and cases will rise and we will see the inverse .... an incline or rise in cases. Thailand needs a 70 to 80 fully vaccinated population to have any chance of turning this around.

yes the lockdowns do little except delay the inevitable.  And with new COVID variants showing up, and people that had vaccinations possibly and probably starting to lose their resistance as the efficacy of the vaccine wanes with time, it is far from clear what will happen.  At some point just have to move on, and just like with flu seasons, may have to depend on people's own immunity or resistance.  In the meantime, so many people are not eating right, are not exercising, are not getting proper or any preventive health care since they have no money. and that is not good in the long term.  things interact

[Chiang Mai Will]

Dr. Chakkarat: expects COVID-19 infections in Bangkok to decline in late August and early September.

Dr. Chakkarat said: infections in Bangkok are likely to level off, with signs of improvement in four to six weeks.

Dr. Chakkarat said: The COVID-19 situation in Bangkok is different from those in surrounding provinces because, despite a rise in cases, the inoculation rate in the capital is relatively high, at 50%.

Dr. Chakkarat said: Thailand is expected to see more COVID-19 cases in the provinces, including intra-family transmission and those who return home for care and treatment.

Dr. Chakkarat said: all parties need to cooperate to avoid the Wuhan model being imposed.

Dr. Chakkarat said: Businesses and factories should implement the "bubble and seal method" if the premises remain free of infections.

 

So everything will be all right then! Panic over! No need to worry, people! It's August in 5 days so look forward to cases dropping swiftly!

[Boedog]

EXPERT, he is some sort of Genius, why do they even speak better to say nothing and let people think your Stupid rather than open your mouth and remove any doubt, Amazing Thailand 

[berrec]

Only if they drop the number of daily COVID-19 PCR tests per 1000 of the population. 

[unblocktheplanet]

To judge by other countries, one might conclude Covid is tidal, it ebbs & flows.

[steevjee]

13 hours ago, ourmanflint said:

Decline from what exactly? I can’t see infection rate slowing down for at least the next 3-4 weeks. So maybe when Thailand is at 40-50,000 cases per day it might start to decline, but that doesn’t help anyone in the meantime

Its quite possibly already at that level in the real world

[steevjee]

3 hours ago, Caspersfriend said:

As Delta Variant Spreads, China Lacks Data on Its Covid-19 Vaccines

The spread of the Delta variant is raising fresh concerns about the efficacy of Chinese vaccines, which have been central to inoculation efforts in the developing world, as recent data shows the protection provided by Western vaccines waning against the highly contagious variant.

Chinese officials have been analyzing data from an outbreak of the Delta variant in southern China last month, while Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech Ltd., the country’s leading Covid-19 vaccine developers, have said they are studying Covid-19 variants, including via lab experiments. Both companies have suggested that a third booster shot may be needed to boost protection after their current two-dose regimens.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-delta-variant-spreads-china-lacks-data-on-its-covid-19-vaccines-11625832648

SINGAPORE—At least 10 of the 26 doctors in Indonesia who died from Covid-19 this month had received both doses of the vaccine developed by Sinovac Biotech Ltd., a medical association said, raising questions about the Chinese-made shot that is being used in many parts of the developing world.27 June 2021

[Scott Tracy]

Is this like TAT and it's tourist numbers?

[rickudon]

Bangkok massage their statistics.

 

Vaccination rate - this is based on anybody vaccinated at least once, and as a proportion of the OFFICIAL population (7.7 million), not the number who actually live there (twice as high?).

 

Cases - well, only as high as those who can actually get hospitalised/tested. And Trains and buses are transporting non-legal residents (especially Covid-19 positive ones) back to their 'home' provinces for quarantine and treatment. With antigen positive rates of up to 20% in Bangkok, seems likely that by the end of August most of the population will be positive or vaccinated. 

 

Meanwhile, by the end of August, where will the provinces be? Minimal vaccine availability, Bangkok's sick being dumped on them. Those volunteer community health workers will have a mountain to climb (and they have been doing a great job so far).

 

A case of I'm alright jack from Bangkok. And even greater loathing of the central government from the neglected provinces.

[Scrotobike]

I am always confused by what the spokespersons and others mean by vaccinated - 

 

Against the Delta Variant - so with a vaccine suited to that

One or 2 vaccines  

 

Statistics......