Thailand reports record high new COVID-19 cases and deaths - but even more recoveries

[bkkcanuck8]

2 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

You don't need to be fully vaccinated to see benefits. There are reports of 40% reduced mortality for single dose sinovac, and 40-80% single dose AZ. Based on the BKK vaccination of 60% for 60+ in Bangkok mentioned in the post above yours, that's going to have a big impact on numbers. Which can be expected to diminish as cases increase outside of Bangkok.

Sounds about right (without checking the numbers)... it will take a while for the first jab to 'teach' your immune system (weeks is what they expect) to recognize the pathogen... after that you will have some protection (probably quite a lot), and the second jab (to be quite honest not sure what all it does to have two jabs) will help you retain that longer as far as I know (maybe also increases the protection). 

 

Every measure taken has some effect on reducing the spread of the virus.  You wearing a mask will reduce you from spreading it if you get it (asymptomatic or not), reduce the spread through surfaces and reduce viral load, same for the other person... staying 2 meter+ away adds more, not going around like a social butterfly reduces the changes of widespread distribution as well.... all of it adds up and when you bring R₀ down to less than 1.... the number of new infections per day on average starts dropping...  Vaccinating enough people is a big part of the equation.  The sooner we can reduce it to less than 1, the sooner society can return to some form of normalcy. 

[bkkcanuck8]

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I wonder what will happen when bangkok first doses reach 7.7 million, and there is still 2 million odd people looking to be vaccinated? And when they get to 9.7 million first doses, Will it show 130% of people have had their first shot?

Simple, if you expand the list of people being vaccinated or vaccinate a thai not registered in Bangkok -- then you add one to the numerator and one to the denominator...  

[wensiensheng]

7 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Simple, if you expand the list of people being vaccinated or vaccinate a thai not registered in Bangkok -- then you add one to the numerator and one to the denominator...  

Yes. I was being facetious

[wensiensheng]

15 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Sounds about right (without checking the numbers)... it will take a while for the first jab to 'teach' your immune system (weeks is what they expect) to recognize the pathogen... after that you will have some protection (probably quite a lot), and the second jab (to be quite honest not sure what all it does to have two jabs) will help you retain that longer as far as I know (maybe also increases the protection). 

 

Every measure taken has some effect on reducing the spread of the virus.  You wearing a mask will reduce you from spreading it if you get it (asymptomatic or not), reduce the spread through surfaces and reduce viral load, same for the other person... staying 2 meter+ away adds more, not going around like a social butterfly reduces the changes of widespread distribution as well.... all of it adds up and when you bring R₀ down to less than 1.... the number of new infections per day on average starts dropping...  Vaccinating enough people is a big part of the equation.  The sooner we can reduce it to less than 1, the sooner society can return to some form of normalcy. 

I don’t think that one jab of sinovac offers a lot of protection. Might be wrong on that, but think I read it somewhere. And for most people in Thailand, the first jab is sinovac.

[anchadian]

Thailand falls to bottom of Nikkei Asia’s COVID-19 Recovery Index

Thailand has been ranked bottom of a list of over 120 countries on Nikkei Asia’s COVID-19 Recovery Index, with a score of 22.0, tied with Vietnam.

 

Last year, Thailand was among the top ranking countries for its management of the pandemic, but has dropped due to the surge of infections since April this year, especially with the widespread and contagious Delta variant.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-falls-to-bottom-of-nikkei-asias-covid-19-recovery-index/

[ThailandRyan]

34 minutes ago, anchadian said:

 

2 Korat chicken processing factories report over 100 infections

 

2 chicken processing plants in northeastern Thailand’s Nakhon Ratchasima/Korat province have got the bubble/seal treatment after over 100 employees tested positive for Covid. The outbreak from the two poultry factories, which employs over 10,000 workers, aroused fear in the nearby residents at the prospect of Covid running amok in their area.

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/2-korat-chicken-processing-factories-report-over-100-infections

 

10k in a bubble and seal, that's just horrendous and inhumane. Wonder if the Thai workers are included in the bubble and seal as well or are let to leave and go home.

[ThailandRyan]

1 minute ago, anchadian said:

Thailand falls to bottom of Nikkei Asia’s COVID-19 Recovery Index

Thailand has been ranked bottom of a list of over 120 countries on Nikkei Asia’s COVID-19 Recovery Index, with a score of 22.0, tied with Vietnam.

 

Last year, Thailand was among the top ranking countries for its management of the pandemic, but has dropped due to the surge of infections since April this year, especially with the widespread and contagious Delta variant.

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-falls-to-bottom-of-nikkei-asias-covid-19-recovery-index/

Oh how the once mighty have fallen due to their big ego's and irresponsible actions.  Sorry, but I call it like I see it.  only 15million+ have been vaccinated with a 1st dose and just a little over 4k with a second jab according to the Channel 32 news right now.  Just talked to a friend in Chiang Mai and he had his first jab today, he was lucky he received AZ unlike many others who were getting the Sinovac jab and told to return in 3 to 4 weeks for the second Jab of possibly AZ, but they were not for sure.  He returns on the 29th of October for his second jab of AZ.

[anchadian]

Thailand’s Chulabhorn Royal Academy (CRA) plans to expand its Sinopharm vaccination drive to include young children and teenagers aged 3-17, following approval to vaccinate younger people by the Chinese government

https://twitter.com/NBTWORLDNews/status/1423626495809921028

 

[metisdead]

An off topic post about the act of remembrance for the Swiss lady who was killed in Phuket has been removed.  

[jak2002003]

Ummmm......of course 'even more recovered'.  That is normal most people do recover from it 

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, jacob29 said:

You don't need to be fully vaccinated to see benefits. There are reports of 40% reduced mortality for single dose sinovac, and 40-80% single dose AZ. Based on the BKK vaccination of 60% for 60+ in Bangkok mentioned in the post above yours, that's going to have a big impact on numbers. Which can be expected to diminish as cases increase outside of Bangkok.

Show me studies for 40% reduced mortality one shot with delta for Sinovac, you can't because there are none. 

 

Plus Thailand is bigger than bangkok not all deaths are from there. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[Bkk Brian]

40 new local cases in Phuket today + 1 sandbox case.

 

https://www.facebook.com/NewshawkPhuket/photos/p.2964089147174255/2964089147174255/?type=3

[jacob29]

Found a proper source of CFR by age for 19-July https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no557-190764.pdf

 

These ratios are not far different from the 10-June report, at a time when the Alpha strain was dominant https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no518-100664.pdf.

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Found a proper source of CFR by age for 19-July https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no557-190764.pdf

 

These ratios are not far different from the 10-June report, at a time when the Alpha strain was dominant https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no518-100664.pdf.

No ones disputing the 19th July, the whole issue was around today's numbers that I quoted and you then responded to:

 

My post:

"36% of people who died from covid yesterday were under 60 years old. The trend for younger victims of this virus continues.:

 

I stand by that and you have shown no evidence to dispute it.

 

Additionally its strange how in that chart from July, the percentage of over 60's dying over the 3 waves is actually increasing despite your claim that vaccinations should be reducing them.

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[jacob29]

14 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Show me studies for 40% reduced mortality one shot with delta for Sinovac, you can't because there are none. 

 

Plus Thailand is bigger than bangkok not all deaths are from there. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/chile-says-sinovac-shot-67-effective-vs-symptomatic-covid-cases-knkcmpwk

 

Quote

Meanwhile, after only one dose, the vaccine prevents about 16% of symptomatic infections, 35% of hospitalizations and 40% of deaths, Araos said. “The eventual need of a third shot is a topic that can always be discussed, though it is still quite speculative.”

This study from Brazil shows a much greater than 40% reduction in mortality rate, in the 75+ age group, with a single dose of Sinovac

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiG6_jzwJzyAhVywTgGHbWcDlgQFnoECBMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdpi.com%2F2414-6366%2F6%2F3%2F129%2Fpdf&usg=AOvVaw3zi23Myn-ZwRY7nmmoIsIC

 

[Kadilo]

8 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Found a proper source of CFR by age for 19-July https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no557-190764.pdf

 

These ratios are not far different from the 10-June report, at a time when the Alpha strain was dominant https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no518-100664.pdf.

Excellent  post. Thanks for sharing. 

 

Great to get some real perspective. 
 

[jacob29]

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

No ones disputing the 19th July, the whole issue was around today's numbers that I quoted and you then responded to:

 

My post:

"36% of people who died from covid yesterday were under 60 years old. The trend for younger victims of this virus continues.:

 

I stand by that and you have shown no evidence to dispute it.

You're going to consider numbers from a single day, a single data point - more relevant than monthly comparisons between non-Delta and Delta?

 

The evidence is overwhelming, but you stick to your cherry picked data point.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, jacob29 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-16/chile-says-sinovac-shot-67-effective-vs-symptomatic-covid-cases-knkcmpwk

 

This study from Brazil shows a much greater than 40% reduction in mortality rate, in the 75+ age group, with a single dose of Sinovac

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiG6_jzwJzyAhVywTgGHbWcDlgQFnoECBMQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdpi.com%2F2414-6366%2F6%2F3%2F129%2Fpdf&usg=AOvVaw3zi23Myn-ZwRY7nmmoIsIC

 

Did you notice I said show me a study with sinovac against delta? I repeat, there are none.

 

Delta is known and proven to reduce vaccine effectiveness, one of the reasons its more dangerous.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, jacob29 said:

You're going to consider numbers from a single day, a single data point - more relevant than monthly comparisons between non-Delta and Delta?

 

The evidence is overwhelming, but you stick to your cherry picked data point.

Indeed, its a trend for the last couple of weeks, that was my whole point, check the figures for the last few days...................

[jacob29]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Did you notice I said show me a study with sinovac against delta? I repeat, there are none.

 

Delta is known and proven to reduce vaccine effectiveness, one of the reasons its more dangerous.

Reduces vaccine effectiveness in preventing death by how much? Show me the studies.

[jacob29]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Indeed, its a trend for the last couple of weeks, that was my whole point, check the figures for the last few days...................

Delta has been dominant for over a month, if it was going show a pronounced effect, we would have seen it.

 

Never mind that the very latest numbers from 01-August, show mortality declining slightly for <60 group.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no570-010864.pdf

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Delta has been dominant for over a month, if it was going show a pronounced effect, we would have seen it.

 

Never mind that the very latest numbers from 01-August, show mortality declining slightly for <60 group.

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/situation/situation-no570-010864.pdf

That does not change the data point and trend this week though does it, which is why I pointed it out quite clearly

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

Reduces vaccine effectiveness in preventing death by how much? Show me the studies.

Nice deflection, I asked you to prove your point that sinovac reduces death by 40% against delta with one shot. You can't as there is no study for that.

 

 

[unblocktheplanet]

Our Thai-Indian neighbour told me this evening there are reports of Thais refusing to leave isolation facilities when recovered--no job, no money, no food at home.

[jacob29]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

That does not change the data point and trend this week though does it, which is why I pointed it out quite clearly

I never disputed the data point, only your conclusion of what it was showing.

 

The monthly data very clearly shows there has not been a trend of increasing mortality for the <60 group. Delta has been dominant for over a month, therefore it cannot be Delta causing changes in the past week. Never mind that a months worth of data has far less noise than a day or a week.

[unblocktheplanet]

Just this evening our Thai-Indian neighbour told me there were reports of Thais who had recovered refusing to leave--no job, money, food at home. Thanks, Phra Yut!

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

I never disputed the data point, only your conclusion of what it was showing.

 

The monthly data very clearly shows there has not been a trend of increasing mortality for the <60 group. Delta has been dominant for over a month, therefore it cannot be Delta causing changes in the past week. Never mind that a months worth of data has far less noise than a day or a week.

I'm sure the monthly data may indeed show that, but I was not referring to that. If somebody points out a high peak in numbers one day or a dip the next against the trend, its still a data point that is valid.

 

You claimed it was because of the vaccines. It is not because of the vaccines as I pointed out with the low numbers given to the over 60's

[jacob29]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Nice deflection, I asked you to prove your point that sinovac reduces death by 40% against delta with one shot. You can't as there is no study for that.

You're the one with the burden of proof, as you're making the claim that the best data we have on efficacy, is no longer valid.

 

Based on the data, which shows IFR rates to be consistent with the Alpha strain, one of the following statements is almost certainly true, as that's the only way to explain the data

 

- Delta does not have an elevated IFR for <60

- Single dose vaccine reduces IFR for >=60

 

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, jacob29 said:

You're the one with the burden of proof, as you're making the claim that the best data we have on efficacy, is no longer valid.

 

Based on the data, which shows IFR rates to be consistent with the Alpha strain, one of the following statements is almost certainly true, as that's the only way to explain the data

 

- Delta does not have an elevated IFR for <60

- Single dose vaccine reduces IFR for >=60

 

Where is the study for Sinovac with Alpha?

 

Here's one of the largest with original Covid: 

 

But for a single dose, efficacy in the 28 days between the first and second dose was only three percent -- on par with the margin of error in such studies, it said.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210406-first-covid-vaccine-shot-alone-not-protective-chile-study

 

Edited August 6, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[jacob29]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Where is the study for Sinovac with Alpha?

 

There are many variants, we can only extrapolate from the most up to date studies. It's completely infeasible to do comprehensive studies of every vaccine vs every variant. Vague hand waving about being less effective (which I'm sure it is to some extent, as is the case for other vaccines), is not good enough to dismiss earlier studies on efficacy.

 

It needs to be quantified before we can draw conclusions. I'm not making the claim that vaccines are the causal factor leading to unchanged IFR. I'm offering it as one of two quite reasonable possibilities consistent with the data.