Must Read Thailand reports record 21,838 new coronavirus cases and 212 deaths

[worrab]

Just to join in with the heated debate between Marvin Hagler and JensenZ, I have been unable to find any cases where the parents have not been with their child that is in hospital with covid.  And this is worldwide as far as I can see. Hope this settles that argument. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by worrab
reword

[rabas]

13 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I took that data and transformed it based on population and gave a mortality rate based on that data.   Mortality rate in the US was around 1.74%, and in Canada a smidgen higher.  Now I suspect that people living here have no deficiency in Vitamin D so I would expect the mortality rate to be less, possibly more if the health care system has collapsed in the country.  That being said some of the data seems to indicate data may be under-reported for certain values (likely due to failure to do comprehensive testing for non-hospitalized cases). 

 

How case fatality rates are calculated can underestimate deaths, especially when cases are rising rapidly like now in SEAsia. When cases rise rapidly, many people who will die are still alive in hospital.  In this case the 'closed'  case fatality rates give better estimates.

 

       closed  CFR =  deaths/(recovered+deaths)

 

Closed CFRs put Thailand at about 1.25. Worldometers correctly uses closed CFRs.

[JensenZ]

1 minute ago, Marvin Hagler said:

No you’re wasting everyone’s time. You said Australia was inhumane when they are clearly not.

 

To support your view you posted an incredibly weak story that in no way relates to being inhumane. They have this guy the exemption he requested but something has obviously gone wrong somewhere and probably on this guys side. A huge and critical part of the story is missing…they granted him the exemption which is clearly humane. The guy obviously hasn’t met the terms of his exemption.

 

There is nothing even remotely inhumane about this. It’s just a story of a guy not meeting the rules and not coming back when he had the chance.

You're doing quite a bit of time wasting here. I gave you an out, but you continue to bang your drum.

 

You're entitled to your opinion of what you personally think is inhumane. After you made that point, which you are quite entitled to make, all other discussion is irrelevant because our definitions of inhumane differ.  

 

It's amazing you cannot get this. 

[JensenZ]

10 minutes ago, Marvin Hagler said:

Try again…post a story that supports your view that Australia has demonstrated policies that are inhumane.

2 replies to the same post. I'm done now, good day.

[placeholder]

59 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

You could have at least said please. I wouldn't normally post anything on demand.

 

You must live under a rock. Here's one example from this year. 

 

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/queensland-denies-son-last-chance-to-see-dying-dad/news-story/6533ecedef475f41b06ca205e9692541

 

Big problem with your example. This was down to the State of Queensland. Not a decision of the Australian govt. 

[bkkcanuck8]

6 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

You're doing quite a bit of time wasting here. I gave you an out, but you continue to bang your drum.

 

You're entitled to your opinion of what you personally think is inhumane. After you made that point, which you are quite entitled to make, all other discussion is irrelevant because our definitions of inhumane differ.  

 

It's amazing you cannot get this. 

To accuse a country of being inhuman the inhumanity has to be systematic and pervasive.  (all countries make admin decisions, and all countries make many admin mistakes).  That said the separation of children and parents has to be a medical decision and that means it is done on a case by case bases depending on many factors.   The preference is not to separate children from family when possible, but reality means it has to be a case by case decision.

[Blumpie]

47 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I took that data and transformed it based on population and gave a mortality rate based on that data.   Mortality rate in the US was around 1.74%, and in Canada a smidgen higher.  Now I suspect that people living here have no deficiency in Vitamin D so I would expect the mortality rate to be less, possibly more if the health care system has collapsed in the country.  That being said some of the data seems to indicate data may be under-reported for certain values (likely due to failure to do comprehensive testing for non-hospitalized cases). 

 

When it comes to countries like Thailand you are basing your assumption that they are reporting the correct numbers.  Look at India, they didn't report neaarly all the deaths.  It's no different here.

[Marvin Hagler]

15 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

2 replies to the same post. I'm done now, good day.

You are defeated and accept your defeat…well done. Good day.

[HappyinNE]

Not reached 50,000 yet.  Just wait a month.

[Rimmer]

An off topic bickering rant has been removed.

[georgey]

1 hour ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I took that data and transformed it based on population and gave a mortality rate based on that data.   Mortality rate in the US was around 1.74%, and in Canada a smidgen higher.  Now I suspect that people living here have no deficiency in Vitamin D so I would expect the mortality rate to be less, possibly more if the health care system has collapsed in the country.  That being said some of the data seems to indicate data may be under-reported for certain values (likely due to failure to do comprehensive testing for non-hospitalized cases). 

 

Your table is v useful, & as you have said, & accepting also the comments of Blumpie below, there are a number of significant shortcomings in the quality of the data. Certainly deaths will be under-reported, probably in all these countries, with the likely exception of Singapore. IMO, however, the biggest variance is likely to be in total cases; obviously the Myanmar numbers, for both total cases & total deaths, are wildly under-stated. I think, as far as the rest are concerned, the most obvious inaccuracies are the numbers of, first, Indo, and then the Phils., where the absolute inability to test, due to enormous logistical difficulties of doing so in two countries where islands are spread over enormous areas, & societies which in the remote areas are seriously primitive. That, to me, suggests a likely overstatement of mortality rate, given how much easier it is to count deaths than to test the living. For the other countries, it would be necessary to understand their political agendas, & I wouldn't pretend to do so. So, ending up with TH & Malaysia somewhere in the middle seems about right. Indo & Phils, plain wrong. Brunei & Laos, no real idea as to their agendas. But the Singapore numbers are likely to be accurate, &, in spite of their excellent health system dragging the mortality rate well down, I'd feel that the MR for most of these countries is probably a bit overstated, predominately due to their reluctance &/or inability to test at s meaningful level.

[anchadian]

Phuket this evening have reported 40 new cases, 0 sandbox and 0 deaths:

 

https://www.facebook.com/phuketinfocenter/

 

 

[bkkcanuck8]

17 minutes ago, georgey said:

Your table is v useful, & as you have said, & accepting also the comments of Blumpie below, there are a number of significant shortcomings in the quality of the data. Certainly deaths will be under-reported, probably in all these countries, with the likely exception of Singapore. IMO, however, the biggest variance is likely to be in total cases; obviously the Myanmar numbers, for both total cases & total deaths, are wildly under-stated. I think, as far as the rest are concerned, the most obvious inaccuracies are the numbers of, first, Indo, and then the Phils., where the absolute inability to test, due to enormous logistical difficulties of doing so in two countries where islands are spread over enormous areas, & societies which in the remote areas are seriously primitive. That, to me, suggests a likely overstatement of mortality rate, given how much easier it is to count deaths than to test the living. For the other countries, it would be necessary to understand their political agendas, & I wouldn't pretend to do so. So, ending up with TH & Malaysia somewhere in the middle seems about right. Indo & Phils, plain wrong. Brunei & Laos, no real idea as to their agendas. But the Singapore numbers are likely to be accurate, &, in spite of their excellent health system dragging the mortality rate well down, I'd feel that the MR for most of these countries is probably a bit overstated, predominately due to their reluctance &/or inability to test at s meaningful level.

Understand though that there are lots more non-public metrics that can be deduced by are not part of any dashboards.  As the other person indicated with the CFR, but the CFR cannot be calculated from dashboard data, only rough calculations if a country has had only one wave and primarily skewed into one wave etc which is accelerating.  i.e. you would have to have the data associated with each case since each case has different temporal values for infected date, recovered date, death date.  Also understand that governments will typically have much more data than is released on the dashboards and many countries will have people creating models that can be fairly accurate that includes other statistical information (such as random sampling of non-COVID patients that indicates whether they were ever sick with COVID -- which may be included in some value like "likely COVID" for purposes of modelling or generating dashboard data for the government. 

 

Also different countries do different aspects of pandemic management well, but very few unfortunately get everything right (e.g. Canada/US do the testing part well, but really fall down when it comes to rapid tracking and tracing [takes a lot of manpower]), I suspect Thailand's testing has been lacking, but they do a better job of tracking and tracing. 

 

If you are a researcher though that has a valid need for this data, many countries provide access to much much more detailed anonymized data for research purposes.

[DoctorB]

11 hours ago, robblok said:

They do just not fake perspective. There is proof that the amounts of death by covid is much higher then reported. If you look at average death rates. Also the dayly deaths now exclipse those in cars. Also suicides i love to see a link in increase as numbers are easy to write down.

 

Plus of course that people who like to make covid out as nothing more as a flu forget the long covid that hits 10% of those infected leading to a sickbed of months. 

 

So yea it really depends on your kind of perspective. If your perspective is to get  to remove lockdown and get the bars open so you can play with girls again then yes i would use those numbers too even though they are out of context.

 

Just an example taking the whole year of car deaths against a few months of covid in this year. Seems not really fair.

 

Also forgetting about long covid and the chance of hospitals not being able to cope. Anyway its always the same people who advocate these kind of things. Thankfully the majority of the forum has a brain.

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/road-deaths/thai-road-deaths-surpass-6000-for-year-to-date

 

also its strange that the guy uses informal numbers but I bet he does not like me wanting to use the deathrate numbers instead of official covid numbers. As the official car death numbers are much lower. 

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/06/lifting-the-veil-on-thailands-covid-19-success-story/

 

Excess deaths far outnumber the death toll announced by the government. There have been about 13,000 excess deaths since the start of March, about 8.5 per cent higher than normal. Thailand’s 58 reported COVID-19 fatalities are only 0.45 per cent of total excess deaths

But what is your perspective? Do you think that spreading doom, gloom and despondency helps in any way? Almost everyone accepts that the situation is difficult but unless they have something positive to offer prefer to keep calm and carry on as best they can. The Thai government has made mistakes, as have almost all governments, but the defeatism of the same small group of names on this forum is truly depressing. 

[DoctorB]

13 hours ago, smedly said:

- we have seen this virus mutate and so far each mutation has been worse in every respect -

This is so blatantly not true. There have been a great many mutations; a very small number have been flagged as 'mutations of concern' ; the Delta mutation has been of greatest concern due to hightened infectivity but is not regarded as more deadly. Finally non of the mutations so far have significantly threatened the vaccination programme. Don't try to make the situation appear worse than it is.

[Kadilo]

1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

, but the defeatism of the same small group of names on this forum is truly depressing. 

Hallelujah!…………thank you. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Kadilo

[bkkcanuck8]

1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

This is so blatantly not true. There have been a great many mutations; a very small number have been flagged as 'mutations of concern' ; the Delta mutation has been of greatest concern due to hightened infectivity but is not regarded as more deadly. Finally non of the mutations so far have significantly threatened the vaccination programme. Don't try to make the situation appear worse than it is.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants

 

Above is a list of variants (not all of them - only the ones that WHO has deemed worthy of recognition).   Below is a tree diagram of COVID variants on wikipedia (COVID is not a particularly fast mutating virus... pretty normal actually that a virus mutates - the vast majority of them would not even make this diagram). 

 

 

 

 

[Damrongsak]

10 hours ago, Marvin Hagler said:

I find it impossible to believe that number (636k).

In the US where vaccines are available everywhere and they have a population 6 times larger they do 1,000,000 per day.

 

They absolutely have it within them to lie and are fully motivated and experienced to do so.

 

That is 833 vaccines per minute in a 12 hour day. In Thailand with all its inherent problems. 

The U.S. peaked in mid-April at about 3.3 million a day, by mid-July it fell to 500K per day due to reduced demand.  Now with the recent surge, about 700K. But, yeah, they were at or above 1 mil per day from the end of Jan to the end of Jun.  The average over the last 7.5 months is about 1.5 mil per day.

[Bkk Brian]

6 hours ago, DoctorB said:

But what is your perspective? Do you think that spreading doom, gloom and despondency helps in any way? Almost everyone accepts that the situation is difficult but unless they have something positive to offer prefer to keep calm and carry on as best they can. The Thai government has made mistakes, as have almost all governments, but the defeatism of the same small group of names on this forum is truly depressing. 

Theres plenty of happy clappy threads around where you can rejoice but each to their own eh

[jerrymahoney]

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Theres plenty of happy clappy threads around where you can rejoice but each to their own eh

... but for some, every silver-lining must have a cloud.

[ThailandRyan]

10 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

... but for some, every silver-lining must have a cloud.

Your view not others and not mine, just the reality of the situation is what it is.

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

... but for some, every silver-lining must have a cloud.

Sunny where i am this morning

[DoctorB]

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Your view not others and not mine, just the reality of the situation is what it is.

But to put a more positive spin on the endless speculation look at India. Cases have declined almost as steeply as they rose. The same may well, for all we know, happen in Thailand. 3 months ago the media were full of pictures of bodies in the streets and floating on the Ganges; this last week the UK moved India off its red list opening up travel without enforced hotel quarantine. A great many people lost loved ones and covid is clearly not finished, but when there is good news, then acknowledge it.

[bkkcanuck8]

3 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

But to put a more positive spin on the endless speculation look at India. Cases have declined almost as steeply as they rose. The same may well, for all we know, happen in Thailand. 3 months ago the media were full of pictures of bodies in the streets and floating on the Ganges; this last week the UK moved India off its red list opening up travel without enforced hotel quarantine. A great many people lost loved ones and covid is clearly not finished, but when there is good news, then acknowledge it.

I am afraid their would be way way more pain before it would crest...  not enough for herd immunity, and the controls in place are not enough to break up the upwards trajectory at this time...

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

But to put a more positive spin on the endless speculation look at India. Cases have declined almost as steeply as they rose. The same may well, for all we know, happen in Thailand. 3 months ago the media were full of pictures of bodies in the streets and floating on the Ganges; this last week the UK moved India off its red list opening up travel without enforced hotel quarantine. A great many people lost loved ones and covid is clearly not finished, but when there is good news, then acknowledge it.

We're not in India and the virus is increasing here, when its over I can assure you we will all sing hallelujah

[ThailandRyan]

26 minutes ago, DoctorB said:

But to put a more positive spin on the endless speculation look at India. Cases have declined almost as steeply as they rose. The same may well, for all we know, happen in Thailand. 3 months ago the media were full of pictures of bodies in the streets and floating on the Ganges; this last week the UK moved India off its red list opening up travel without enforced hotel quarantine. A great many people lost loved ones and covid is clearly not finished, but when there is good news, then acknowledge it.

You view many posts, including mine, as being negative when most of us post true statistics, real information and experiences of those who have, were, or are experiencing familial or close friends cases or deaths and which are shared herein on the Covid thread.  Unfortunately those seen by you as negative are the reality of the situation.  This you say is doom and gloom, and that we spin that type of view herein, when it is only the truth and reality of what is happening as we see it.  So lets just agree to disagree, and if its not to your liking then why not find another thread.  We do acknowledge when things are looking better, but the issues are the lack of clarity from the government and as we found not long ago of those 100k isolating at home they are from using a Rapid Antigen test Kit, or as the Thai Government calls them ATK's, or Antigen test kits, and they are not included as cases in the daily stats..  To answer you other view such as India, while the cases had seemed to have been declining, boots on the ground say that although the cases in the main cities in India have declined, they are continuing to rise in other areas, and because of this many are more than likely not being tracked, just like the millions of deaths in those areas as well.  Cases are rising once again in India, but to each their own as the reality of the situation is what it is. Here is but one link for you.  If you view this post as negative then I do not know what else to say but hope your day is full of sun as mine is.

 

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/numbers-matter-there-is-a-turn-in-india-s-covid-infection-trends-for-the-worse-101628247779027.html 

Edited August 8, 2021 by ThailandRyan

[jacko45k]

17 hours ago, Caldera said:

Separating little children from their parents just for Covid isolation is a crime against humanity. I haven't heard of any other country doing that.

I suppose it must have happened in many western countries if the parents got sick with Covid. 

[Danderman123]

20 hours ago, itsari said:

Indonesia has three times the population of Thailand . 

The epidemic is still in its early stages. Indonesia will have many more deaths.

 

As another example, the UK has had 127,000 deaths.

[jerrymahoney]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

1 hour ago, jerrymahoney said:

... but for some, every silver-lining must have a cloud.

Your view not others and not mine, just the reality of the situation is what it is.

Yes I am aware who is the Truth & Reality “Я” Us squad on here.

 

But OK this is my reality: There is a government in power and, until they are not in power, they are in power. And people on here can hurl every pejorative they want at those in power and maybe they are right. But it doesn't make a d--- bit of difference.

 

There is only one way those in power will become out-of-power and I have been hooted every time I suggest so. And it makes no difference if you are speechless.

Edited August 8, 2021 by jerrymahoney

[metisdead]

Update:

 

 

 

//Closed//