Prominent Thai doctor says lockdown measures aren’t working, tighter ones won’t work either, ease them to save the economy and consider an export ban on Covid19 vaccines and greatly boost vaccination program

[sucit]

23 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

Lift lockdowns when infection rates drop to a rate health services can cope with would be the formula I’d follow. 

Ok. And in doing so a lot of people would die from the effects of the lockdown. 
 

idk what people are smoking, but one things lockdowns are NOT, is they are not lockdown and just resume life without consequences when they end. That’s the one thing nobody considers, that little detail about the consequences of the lockdowns, which could last for decades. 

[Bluespunk]

2 minutes ago, sucit said:

Ok. And in doing so a lot of people would die from the effects of the lockdown. 
 

idk what people are smoking, but one things lockdowns are NOT, is they are not lockdown and just resume life without consequences when they end. That’s the one thing nobody considers, that little detail about the consequences of the lockdowns, which could last for decades. 

None of which has anything to do with the question I raised about how an end to lockdown at this point will ease infection rates. . 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bluespunk

[malthebluff]

20 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

 

 

Yes because spanish flu was a pandemic or are you arguing against hiistory

[Bluespunk]

2 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

Yes because spanish flu was a pandemic or are you arguing against hiistory

No. I’m pointing out you did mention flu while discussing a virus that has nothing to do with flu. 

[malthebluff]

5 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

No. I’m pointing out you did mention flu while discussing a virus that has nothing to do with flu. 

Read slower I said we had to just get on with it LIKE WE DID WITH THE SPANISH FLU and have jabs every year..

I will try and write slower next time so you can understand 

[bkkcanuck8]

48 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

I didnt say it was flu not once anywhere so please read slower 

I read that very slowly, and I am pretty sure I see the word flu at the 6th word in ????

[Bluespunk]

26 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

Read slower I said we had to just get on with it LIKE WE DID WITH THE SPANISH FLU and have jabs every year..

I will try and write slower next time so you can understand 

Good you admit you did mention flu. 
 

Please read the following slowly:

 

And how we learn to live with covid 19 has nothing to do with the point I raised asking how ending lockdown in the midst of rising numbers will ease infection rates. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bluespunk

[malthebluff]

16 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I read that very slowly, and I am pretty sure I see the word flu at the 6th word in ????

Then you didnt understand the context of a pandemic nowhere does it say that covid is flu it says get on with it like we did with Spanish flu 

[malthebluff]

21 minutes ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

I read that very slowly, and I am pretty sure I see the word flu at the 6th word in ????

Look at other countries take the uk around 90% vaccinated all shops and businesses open and as much back to normal but covid going up around 8% a day. This is something we cant stop and never will and we will have to just get on with it like we did with the Spanish flu its  never gone away we just get the flu jab every year and covid will be the same so lockdowns have no value and will not stop or cure covid unfortunately 

So you can read again nowhere does it say covid is the same as flu

[Tanomazu]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

So this is ok with you to hold Sweden up as a role model?

 

Sweden, population 10 million. Deaths per million from covid = 1,438

Thailand, population 70 million. Deaths per million from covid = 102

 

It would mean Thailand having over an extra 100,000+/- covid deaths.

 

 

So you're ok with taking Thailand's fantasy figures for Covid deaths as real then? Despite the fact that everyone knows they were not testing 99% of their population for Covid not so long ago? And despite the fact that it is well known that excess deaths in Thailand make a mockery of Thailand's official deaths from covid figures?

 

You make it sound as if 1438 is a huge number, when in fact it is 0.01% of Sweden's population. And bearing in mind that Sweden is now dealing with close to 0 deaths from Covid per day it certainly would appear that Sweden's approach is a lot better than Thailand's, which is just starting its pandemic experience, with wholly false numbers given officially. But clearly currently doing a lot worse than Sweden. Which did not wear masks, and did not lock down hard.

[bkkcanuck8]

20 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

Then you didnt understand the context of a pandemic nowhere does it say that covid is flu it says get on with it like we did with Spanish flu 

Of course I know SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19) is not a influenza virus (Type V virus along with measels, mumps, ebola), it is a coronavirus (Type IV virus along with polio virus, rhinovirus).  That said, I would not classify pandemics by what type of virus caused it.... two pandemics caused by two different viruses can have more in common than two pandemics caused by the same type of virus.  Spanish flu was more deadly (mortality rate, total dead) than the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, but less deadly than SARS-CoV-1 aka SARS (mortality rate, luckily not be total dead).  It is interesting though you can get Cold & Flu medicine (like Neo-citron) and colds are typically caused by rhinovirus which is  a type IV virus and flu is caused by influenza virus which is a type V virus.  We commonly refer to cold and flu season as well.  SARS-CoV-2 is also a neurotropic virus (i.e. can damage destroy nerves) which I do not believe any influenza virus is.

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[Anton9]

Spanish flu was much worse than Covid 19, so you can't actually compare because it was a totally different animal.

It was killing healthy young people while covid MOSTLY kills elderly people with comorbidities.

[bkkcanuck8]

20 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Spanish flu was much worse than Covid 19, so you can't actually compare because it was a totally different animal.

It was killing healthy young people while covid MOSTLY kills elderly people with comorbidities.

Understand though that the Spanish Flu had a global mortality rate of around 10% (estimated) [United States mortality rate was less than that - maybe 3 times per capita as COVID-19], the first wave the virus was a minor nuisance, the second wave was the one that did all the damage (hooray for mutations).

 

As someone has mentioned, SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19) is not originally a human virus, it was a Zoonotic virus that jumped to humans.  It is now mutating a bit at a time, and depending on what happens -- through natural selection it will become a virus more adapted to humans.  This process may lead to changes, we don't know.  We won't know yet what it will fully become.  SARS-CoV-1 came out of the block as a more dangerous virus, but we were able to contain it - pretty much at the point we had thought we had lost containment... we were lucky.  (this is called Antigenic Drift)  I am a bit more familiar with Antigenic Shift, where if you have multiple viruses in a host they can swap whole chains and change dramatically and quickly (i.e. Flu 1 virus and Flu 2 virus - which are different - swap large parts between them).  This is why we have new Flu on annualized basis that have to be dealt with.  We luckily have a very limited number of coronavirus that this can do it with and one has a couple of cases a year, one has been contained, and the other 4 are a minor nuisance right now.   MERS and SARS-CoV-1 are cousins though of SARS-CoV-2... and they have a 38% and 10% mortality rate respectively.   Animals have many more coronavirus so the SARS-CoV-2 -- which has jumped back to animals (cats, dogs, minks) could jump back to humans with new mutations (the Antigenic Shift type; most worried about the mink farms that had outbreaks). 

[nkg]

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

And how will that ease infection rates?

 

Why a doctor would not want to ease infection rates is beyond me.

 

My question stands.

 

So I repeat, how does the doctor think ending lockdown restrictions will slow/ease the spread of the virus?

 

My question was how will ending lockdowns ease infection rates.

 

However that does not answer the question I posed.

 

It’s not the one I asked.

 

The point about vaccination is one I agree with but it was not the one I questioned.

 

How does any of that relate to the question I asked? How, in the middle of rising numbers will ending lockdowns ease infection rates?

 

However that was not my point; I asked how ending lockdown in the midst of record rising numbers would ease infection rates.

 

None of which has anything to do with the question I raised about how an end to lockdown at this point will ease infection rates.

 

And how we learn to live with covid 19 has nothing to do with the point I raised asking how ending lockdown in the midst of rising numbers will ease infection rates.

 

Yes, we get it Bluespunk. Maybe nobody is interested in answering the one question that you've fixated on. Maybe other people want to broaden the debate.

 

[Stargeezr]

If anybody believes any official number of deaths from COVID, you are truly mistaken.   Far more people have died all over the world, than what has been counted.  This includes Sweden, Canada, USA, Russia, Europe, China,  the ME, India, South America, Central America, and likely Asia, and Africa. Maybe Indonesia has reported closer to the actual number, but I believe that almost every country has had COVID deaths, that were classed as something else. 

 

 I hope that the doctor is right, and of course with most people in Asia who like to flaunt most rules, well lock down to them does not apply, does it?  Carry on.

Geezer

[drenddy]

14 hours ago, samtam said:

Which particular aspect of the requirements? I have Permanent Residency. Once I get my second jab I will only have to quarantine for 7 days, providing I pass the serology test upon arrival. (....Unless of course Thailand slips into a very high risk country, which is entirely possible at this rate.)

 

 

  Providing a blood sample in order to get into a country....That's a bit extreme...

[bkkcanuck8]

3 hours ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

If anybody believes any official number of deaths from COVID, you are truly mistaken.   Far more people have died all over the world, than what has been counted.  This includes Sweden, Canada, USA, Russia, Europe, China,  the ME, India, South America, Central America, and likely Asia, and Africa. Maybe Indonesia has reported closer to the actual number, but I believe that almost every country has had COVID deaths, that were classed as something else. 

 

 I hope that the doctor is right, and of course with most people in Asia who like to flaunt most rules, well lock down to them does not apply, does it?  Carry on.

Geezer

So you are saying the mortality rate is not something like 1.8% in Canada, that it is "far more" maybe 5%?   And USA is not 1.6% it is maybe 4.5%?   Or are you saying that the totals were wrong and 3 times more people got sick with severe COVID...   and so same mortality rate just had many more people die?   Can you show me where you get that idea from?  I don't see any evidence that that many people died in Canada....   Even the inept media in Canada would catch on to something like that... unless you are saying there is some massive conspiracy from the "free press" as well?  

[jacko45k]

22 hours ago, dougiemac52 said:

Sinovac is useless. After 2 doses it is at best 50% effective and this has been proved

But 50% effective is not useless.

[brewsterbudgen]

11 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

U.K. went through several lockdowns and did not end till infection rates dropped.
 

Vaccination rates are now such that health services are not being overwhelmed. Govt as far as I know has not ruled out further lockdowns if this situation changes, though I can’t see that happening. 
 

Covid-19 is not flu of any sort. 

The UK have seemed to accept a daily rate of Covid deaths between 50-100 (with around 70% of the adult population vaccinated) and are no longer locked down in any way.  What would be an acceptable rate for Thailand to get to a similar position?

[chrissables]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:05 PM, samtam said:

 

The problem is that lockdown in Thailand means congregation of too many people in a small space. The good doctor is recognising that Thailand is a desperately poor country in which "lockdown" enforces close proximity. It has therefore achieved the opposite effect. The likes of myself and others, who can (and have) seriously locked down for 2 months, (viz not been out of my condo into the great metropolis of Bangkok), is not an option available to the majority of the Thai population, in Bangkok, or elsewhere. For the MoPH not to have recognised the reality of life of ordinary Thais speaks volumes. The economy has been substantially destroyed, and, along with a slow, (but improving vaccination rollout?) is the main reason Thailand's recovery will be slow and painful. The case numbers (if they are true) are relatively low, and the encouraging (if true) statistic, is that recoveries from infected persons are higher than new cases. Death numbers are also low. None of this is a cause for celebration, but a reality check, and a more pragmatic approach are certainly needed.  

How did you eat and exercise for two months without leaving your apartment?

[samtam]

1 hour ago, chrissables said:

How did you eat and exercise for two months without leaving your apartment?

Food is ordered through my personal shopper, and delivered; I cook it. I swim 1400m every other day in our pool, which is available on a one unit per hour booking system.

[samtam]

5 hours ago, drenddy said:

  Providing a blood sample in order to get into a country....That's a bit extreme...

If the serology test proves you have sufficient antibodies and it cuts your quarantine time down from 14 to 7 days, I think it's actually preferable to 14 days ASQ, or 14 days in the sandbox. If you don't want to have the test, you can do the 14 day quarantine, and you can still enter the country. If you don't want to have a vaccination before entering Hong Kong, you can do so by having a 21 day quarantine.

Edited August 14, 2021 by samtam

[jwest10]

18 hours ago, jwest10 said:

Maybe in the wrong area but I noticed the booster vaccine is arriving for all 77 province front line staff tomorrow 14th August and they have had the 2 jabs so far and yes IMHO so they should.
I would like to ask why provinces outside or near Bangkok and they have been given jabs, so why are the general population and also many in their 70s have still not got even one jab and been registered for months and months.
Yes, no vaccines available and everyone blaming each other and playing with people's lives and the Thai family supported by foreign husbands.
An absolute disgrace 

Yes should have stated even those over 60 years and some of the conditions come first, Yeah really there is no vaccine or wait maybe next year?

[Bluespunk]

9 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Yes, we get it Bluespunk. Maybe nobody is interested in answering the one question that you've fixated on. Maybe other people want to broaden the debate.

 

Feel free to broaden it with those likewise minded but if you wish to include me, and you did begin this series of posts with myself, be aware I am not interested in such attempts from those who post in the manner you have. 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Bluespunk

[Bluespunk]

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

The UK have seemed to accept a daily rate of Covid deaths between 50-100 (with around 70% of the adult population vaccinated) and are no longer locked down in any way.  What would be an acceptable rate for Thailand to get to a similar position?

Get vaccinations to the point where the numbers are no longer likely to overwhelm the health services. 
 

Or of course end current series of lockdowns when the infection rates drop to a point where health services can cope. However I fear that will only be a temporary situation if vaccination programmes do not improve. 
 

 

Edited August 14, 2021 by Bluespunk

[Cuba]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:00 PM, placeholder said:

Really? They know where to get them? And you know that how? Do you know where to get some of these vaccines for immediate delivery?

Are you implying the government don't know where to get them?

Edited August 14, 2021 by Cuba

[Anton9]

4 hours ago, samtam said:

If the serology test proves you have sufficient antibodies and it cuts your quarantine time down from 14 to 7 days, I think it's actually preferable to 14 days ASQ, or 14 days in the sandbox. If you don't want to have the test, you can do the 14 day quarantine, and you can still enter the country. If you don't want to have a vaccination before entering Hong Kong, you can do so by having a 21 day quarantine.

Still don't understand why a country like Thailand,riddled with covid, has to put in place so many restrictions to foreign arrivals.

A vaccinated individual with a negative test would be more than enough.

[samtam]

33 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Still don't understand why a country like Thailand,riddled with covid, has to put in place so many restrictions to foreign arrivals.

A vaccinated individual with a negative test would be more than enough.

Agree. There are very few "imported" cases now from overseas arrivals, but I think the ASQ facility is a nice little earner for those in the scheme, (and I don't necessarily mean the hotels). 

Edited August 14, 2021 by samtam

[zhounan]

Nooo Manoon, you were almost there, you said almost everything right and you fell on the last hurdle. Damn!

[club]

43 minutes ago, samtam said:

Agree. There are very few "imported" cases now from overseas arrivals, but I think the ASQ facility is a nice little earner for those in the scheme, (and I don't necessarily mean the hotels). 

ASQ is a SCAM not a scheme. Fully vaccinated with Moderna ,the best vaccine against Delta and a negative test still gets you 14 nights in a hotel where you cant leave the room. Now that's a scam