Thailand’s Covid-19 infection numbers are likely “much higher”

[webfact]

 

By Cod Satrusayang

 

Thailand’s Covid-19 infection numbers are likely much higher than those being reported by the government, a senior advisor to the Ministry of Public Health told Thai Enquirer on Friday.

 

Thailand has been seeing record Covid-19 numbers in August with daily infection totals regularly topping 20,000 cases per day.

 

However, according to a senior advisor to the Ministry of Public Health, the number of daily infections is likely much higher than those officially recorded by the government.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/31207/thailands-covid-19-infection-numbers-are-likely-much-higher/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2021-08-13

 

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[Scrotobike]

You mean that your statistics have been misleading because of lack of testing

Shock Horror - I'll be a monkey's uncle (don't tell my brother)

[ThailandRyan]

Well that's a completely different thing when a senior advisor to Anutin pops up and says exactly what most of us have been saying. Of curse we have been named as doomsayers, and doom mongers for just explaining the reality of what we see and hear.  Hopefully the vaccinations will keep pace and the AZ production continues unabated.  Stay safe.

[drenddy]

No <deleted>, Sherlock

[kotsak]

You don't say!

 

[Blumpie]

I believe everything on the net as long as it fits my narrative.  

[MrJ2U]

14 minutes ago, Scrotobike said:

You mean that your statistics have been misleading because of lack of testing

Shock Horror - I'll be a monkey's uncle (don't tell my brother)

Just like the vaccine rollouts.

 

Testing is so little as to be inconsequential.

 

The Health Ministry and this government in general is completely incompetent in regards to health management.

 

There days are numbered.

[smedly]

“I think the infection totals you see reported every day are likely the peak number that we can expect given our testing capacity,” said the advisor who asked not to be named. “The majority of those [numbers] are people who come in to get tested, there is no mass testing program in the communities.”

 

 

been saying exactly that for weeks as have many others - I hope this person has a good protection because he is going to need it after this revelation to the press

[harada]

It’s an EX advisor.

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, harada said:

It’s an EX advisor.

Sarcasm, or a known fact?

[mtls2005]

Yesterday this would have been "fake news".

 

Today it is "news".

 

Amazing Thighland.

 

 

[TheFishman1]

They actually don’t count road fatalities what makes anybody think they would be able to count the virus effectively TIT

[fallup88]

Well it goes without saying, government already says there are over 100,000 stay at home cases in Bangkok but they are not counting towards the actual cases but only labeling them as “probable cause”

 

not to mention factories which have on average 15-20% of workers infected and are quarantine either at home or in factories which are not counted towards the tally as well.

Edited August 13, 2021 by fallup88

[IamNoone88]

He must have a degree in "Stating the Obvious".

[ukrules]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

However, according to a senior advisor to the Ministry of Public Health, the number of daily infections is likely much higher than those officially recorded by the government.

Of course it is, the positive tests are a reflection of the number of tests done.

 

The more you test the more you find.

 

India has done 3 national serosurveys so far, I don't remember reading about them doing these in Thailand, not yet anyway - which is kind of alarming.

 

Why would Thailand skip an essential step in measuring the extent of disease spread?

[robblok]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Sarcasm, or a known fact?

Probably EX after having said this ????

[Aussieroaming]

Sounds like something an ex advisor would say after perpetuating the myth on behalf of the health department and then getting the a#rse by Anutin. Quite a true statement though, that the rate is much higher than that being released to the public. The 3 x mass tests in Bangkok that all resulted in more than 10% infection rates validate his comments, at least for the covid capital of thailand.

[Uroller]

Land of lies/smiles

[gk10012001]

7 hours ago, Scrotobike said:

You mean that your statistics have been misleading because of lack of testing

Shock Horror - I'll be a monkey's uncle (don't tell my brother)

Flue experts estimate that in severe years, 5 to20 % of a population get the flu.  Again, just estimates because they do not test every body that had flu symptoms or of course the entire population.   10 % for a guess would mean maybe 6 million Thais may have had, have or will get the COVID, with or without symptoms?

[Anton9]

Of course they are, likely 10 times more.

67% of India population has covid antibodies in the blood.

 

[mrfill]

6 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

Of course they are, likely 10 times more.

67% of India population has covid antibodies in the blood.

 

Based on a sample of 32337 people (IMCR survey in June/July). That is .00231% of the population - the equivalent of testing 1617 in Thailand.

The previous survey (Dec/Jan 2021) tested 28589 people and reported 21.4% infection rate in over 18s and 25.3% for 10-17 year olds..

 

I doubt that such tiny samples are representative. Sure, the reported infections are likely to be much lower than the real rate but wild guesses based on tiny samples is not the way to get accuracy.

 

 

[pokerface1]

Always knew the charts and stats posted here re covid were a waste of space. But many here were sucked into thinking they were meaningful. 

 

 

 

[ukrules]

9 minutes ago, mrfill said:

Based on a sample of 32337 people (IMCR survey in June/July). That is .00231% of the population - the equivalent of testing 1617 in Thailand.

The previous survey (Dec/Jan 2021) tested 28589 people and reported 21.4% infection rate in over 18s and 25.3% for 10-17 year olds..

 

I doubt that such tiny samples are representative. Sure, the reported infections are likely to be much lower than the real rate but wild guesses based on tiny samples is not the way to get accuracy.

 

 

They know what they're doing, there will no doubt be another as well.

Don't write them off due to sample size. They've repeatedly sampled the same areas and it clearly shows a massive rise.

 

Could it be more accurate, sure - but it's all they've got so far.

 

More information here on the Indian governments website : http://loksabhaph.nic.in/Questions/QResult15.aspx?qref=24949&lsno=17

 

They know what they're doing in India and so do the Thai professionals. The problem here is those in charge, not the scientists.

[Almer]

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Well that's a completely different thing when a senior advisor to Anutin pops up and says exactly what most of us have been saying. Of curse we have been named as doomsayers, and doom mongers for just explaining the reality of what we see and hear.  Hopefully the vaccinations will keep pace and the AZ production continues unabated.  Stay safe.

Impossible

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

35 minutes ago, pokerface1 said:

Always knew the charts and stats posted here re covid were a waste of space. But many here were sucked into thinking they were meaningful.

 

 

They are meaningful, but only as a general barometer of case counts rising and getting worse -- not as an exact measurement of the true case counts occurring in the country.

 

But at some point, and perhaps we're already there, the case counts seeking to get entered into the system are going to exceed the available volume of RT-PCR testing the government is capable of doing daily....

 

And then things will really begin to become unhinged from reality -- unless they change their official case counting method to start including things like positive antigen tests.

Edited August 13, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Golden Triangle]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

Of course it is, the positive tests are a reflection of the number of tests done.

 

The more you test the more you find.

 

India has done 3 national serosurveys so far, I don't remember reading about them doing these in Thailand, not yet anyway - which is kind of alarming.

 

Why would Thailand skip an essential step in measuring the extent of disease spread?

Sorry, what is a serosurvey ? Never heard of it, would be grateful for an update from????????????????

[rodknock]

what do you expect, the truth???

[starky]

9 hours ago, smedly said:

“I think the infection totals you see reported every day are likely the peak number that we can expect given our testing capacity,” said the advisor who asked not to be named. “The majority of those [numbers] are people who come in to get tested, there is no mass testing program in the communities.”

 

 

been saying exactly that for weeks as have many others - I hope this person has a good protection because he is going to need it after this revelation to the press

Only weeks? 

[ukrules]

51 minutes ago, Golden Triangle said:

Sorry, what is a serosurvey ? Never heard of it, would be grateful for an update from????????????????

Google it

[Golden Triangle]

I will but you could have provided a link so people would know what you're talking about.

 

I have provided this link for those of you who like me had never heard of a serosurvey and ukrules was too lazy to provide. ????

 

https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/fyi-an-in-depth-look-at-the-issues-that-affect-us/what-is-sero-survey-589320

Edited August 13, 2021 by Golden Triangle
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