U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

[GinBoy2]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

I lived in Carlsbad from '88 until about 2000. Loved it but heard that the traffic is insane in north county now. Ugh.

 

That's where I want to be.  5 cars at a red light!  55555

I lived in Mission Valley but worked in Rancho Bernardo, so had a reverse commute. As I crossed the hill on I-15 past Miramar I'd see 8 lanes of practically stationary traffic headed south into the city.

 

Don't miss that for a second.

I miss lots of other things about San Diego, the beaches, the food, the weather, but definitely not the traffic

[GinBoy2]

26 minutes ago, frantick said:

Now that you can't drag race on 8th Street (aka Mt. Rushmore Rd)!

Used to be bumper to bumper on Friday and Saturday nights in the 60's and 70's.

Definitely days long gone

[GinBoy2]

7 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

I lived in Carlsbad from '88 until about 2000. Loved it but heard that the traffic is insane in north county now. Ugh.

 

That's where I want to be.  5 cars at a red light!  55555

Yeah the lack of traffic here is a real plus.

As much as we'd like to move to Colorado and be closer to the kids, cost and just the general peaceful living here kinda clouds our decision.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 9/12/2021 at 9:56 AM, Jingthing said:

I might agree with you but you're ignoring the massively high rents in the U.S. in most anywhere it would be tolerable to live.

The buy vs rent dilemma in the U.S. is a difficult one.... and it's one I've been mulling over in recent years from my perch here.

 

One difference though, from an older expat's standpoint, is the stability factor for housing costs....

 

If you're renting in a commercial apartment complex, I'm guessing you can probably expect an annual rent inrease of 5% or more each and every year for however long you're going to be living there. So that needs to be planned and budgeted for.

 

If you take the risk of buying and lock things in with a fixed rate mortgage, at least you know those monthly payments are going to be mostly stable in future years, except for the property tax element, which may or may not increase much over the years depending on the state.  But it also means taking a risk on your investment.

 

Example:

I had a house in California that I sold around 2005 for about double what I had paid for it some seven years prior. Shortly after I sold, the market crashed in 2007 and the market price over a two-year period fell by about half, meaning back down to what I had paid years before, which must have been sickening at the time for my buyers.

 

It took a full 10 years until about 2015 before the market value of the house returned to the 2005 price they had paid and I had received in selling. But since then, from 2015 to now, the price has increased by about one-third, and is now one-third above the 2005 price I sold for.

 

Timing is everything. If my buyers hadn't been able to hold on and continue living there, which they did, they would have gotten crushed. But they were able to stay in the house, and now have about a 33% gain on their purchase some 15+ years later.

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 9/12/2021 at 1:29 PM, Jeffr2 said:

I guess you missed the part about rising rents? A problem you don't have to worry about if you own. As for risk? There's pretty much none if you don't plan to sell.

 

One of the things I always fretted about back during my working days was the prospect of a job change / advancement potentially forcing me to sell my home, potentially at a time when the market conditions were adverse.

 

At least once you're retired, and hopefully you've found a decent area/neighborhood to live in, once you're there as an owner, there shouldn't be many reasons that would force you to move -- unless you yourself decide you want to.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

On 9/13/2021 at 9:20 AM, GinBoy2 said:

If you just need a place to live, there are thousands of small towns that you can live really cheaply. It may be a one horse town, but i'll be pretty much crime free ( let's excuse running the one stop sign in town) and generally folks are just down to earth.

 

Now maybe you won't have a Starbucks, but there will be a bar, general store and equally you aren't going to get shot by some gangbanger

 

And weekly Saturday night screenings of "Deliverance" at the local drive-in, followed by Trump "they stole the election" rallies on Sunday at the local park....   ????

 

Living there, you'll never lack for entertainment....

 

[GinBoy2]

On 9/18/2021 at 11:40 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

And weekly Saturday night screenings of "Deliverance" at the local drive-in, followed by Trump "they stole the election" rallies on Sunday at the local park....   ????

 

Living there, you'll never lack for entertainment....

 

That was one of the best posts of the year, certainly made me laugh.

 

But on the serious side, yeah those places may be the stereotypical podunk back of beyond, but if push comes to shove, you can live there at low cost, if that's the answer to the OP 'can you afford to repatriate'

[cmarshall]

On 9/19/2021 at 12:33 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

One of the things I always fretted about back during my working days was the prospect of a job change / advancement potentially forcing me to sell my home, potentially at a time when the market conditions were adverse.

 

At least once you're retired, and hopefully you've found a decent area/neighborhood to live in, once you're there as an owner, there shouldn't be many reasons that would force you to move -- unless you yourself decide you want to.

 

Actually, this is a fairly significant problem in the US where the home ownership rate is high compared to other developed nations, such as Germany at 51%.  It makes the labor force less mobile resulting in some underemployment. 

 

While retirees might desire and expect stability, we are in a different situation from workers.  We probably cannot control our income very much once retired leaving cost of living the only significant variable that we can control.  And the most effective way to affect our cost of living is to move to a lower cost of living area.  From that point of view home ownership might detrimental.

 

It goes without saying that expats who live in a country without immigration rights have no reasonable expectation of stability.  I would never be willing to own housing here in Thailand since I could be forced to leave for any number of reasons beyond my control at any time.  Also, if I had been an owner I would have missed the opportunity in the Covid year to move up to a much better apartment at a lower rent.

[watgate]

I am glad I have my condo back in the US so I have a place I can go back to if need be for whatever reason. I could also sell it for a nice gain and relocate to another area if I  so desire.

[Jingthing]

2 hours ago, watgate said:

I am glad I have my condo back in the US so I have a place I can go back to if need be for whatever reason. I could also sell it for a nice gain and relocate to another area if I  so desire.

Yeah that's good for you but this topic is really about expats that don't have any US housing to go back to.

[EVENKEEL]

18 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Yeah that's good for you but this topic is really about expats that don't have any US housing to go back to.

There's options in the US. $800/mo in say Florida will get you a decent place. Then there's the rent a room in a house option. It's popular for home owners to make a little extra by renting out a room, sometimes with private bath.

[Jingthing]

23 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

There's options in the US. $800/mo in say Florida will get you a decent place. Then there's the rent a room in a house option. It's popular for home owners to make a little extra by renting out a room, sometimes with private bath.

Nobody is going to rent an 800 dollar apartment to someone with no recent rental history and a typical aversge social security check currently 1430.

 

[EVENKEEL]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Nobody is going to rent an 800 dollar apartment to someone with no recent rental history and a typical aversge social security check currently 1430.

 

Right on that, for that person getting $1430/mo with no support in US like family where they can live. Then their prospects are slim. Can be done, like I said rooms in homes for rent. 

 

Thailand is perfect for that guy with only SS check.

[frantick]

54 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Nobody is going to rent an 800 dollar apartment to someone with no recent rental history and a typical aversge social security check currently 1430.

 

On the bright side, the COLA increase this year should get you close to $1500!

[Jingthing]

Now even more ridiculous!

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/30/rent-inflation-housing/

 

Rents are up 40 percent in some cities, forcing millions to find another place to live

 

Kiara Age moved in less than a year ago and now it’s time to move again: Rent on her two-bedroom apartment in Henderson, Nev., is rising 23 percent to nearly $1,600 a month, making it impossibly out of reach for the single mother.

[Jeffr2]

17 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Now even more ridiculous!

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/30/rent-inflation-housing/

 

Rents are up 40 percent in some cities, forcing millions to find another place to live

 

Kiara Age moved in less than a year ago and now it’s time to move again: Rent on her two-bedroom apartment in Henderson, Nev., is rising 23 percent to nearly $1,600 a month, making it impossibly out of reach for the single mother.

I know Henderson well. Not a top notch neighborhood. Crazy times in the US!

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

9 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

I know Henderson well. Not a top notch neighborhood. Crazy times in the US!

 Ya, but... Henderson's got the LAS VEGAS Raiders!

 

That oughta make up for the $1600 a month apartment!  ????

 

[LarrySR]

On 9/19/2021 at 12:40 PM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

And weekly Saturday night screenings of "Deliverance" at the local drive-in, followed by Trump "they stole the election" rallies on Sunday at the local park....   ????

 

Living there, you'll never lack for entertainment....

 

And you can determine the MAGA neighbors IQ by counting how many teeth they have left.

[PoodThaiMaiDai]

More and more baby boomers retiring with wealth, so when they relocate and pay cash or almost cash it drives up the market.

 

When my parents bought a house in the late 60's for $20,000 the mortgage interest rates were around 19%.

 

Now mortgage interest rates are around 4% (give or take in the last few years) and this drives prices up, because people are paying what they can afford each month regardless if they are overpaying for a property.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, PoodThaiMaiDai said:

More and more baby boomers retiring with wealth, so when they relocate and pay cash or almost cash it drives up the market.

 

When my parents bought a house in the late 60's for $20,000 the mortgage interest rates were around 19%.

 

Now mortgage interest rates are around 4% (give or take in the last few years) and this drives prices up, because people are paying what they can afford each month regardless if they are overpaying for a property.

Very true.  I remember having a rate of close to 20% in 1982.  And for decades, lived very well off interest income from my investments.  Not now!

 

Rates will be going up in March, but just a tad.  That will cool the housing market.  Even more so if they raise them again a few times this year like's being predicted.

 

We'll see.  But this crazy rise in prices is keeping me from moving back to the US.  Along with the dodgy political situation! LOL

[Jingthing]

16 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

I know Henderson well. Not a top notch neighborhood. Crazy times in the US!

Henderson used to be on my own list of somewhat affordable but still with attractions places to consider in the US. Now my list would be more about living in a converted van which might be fun for some but for me would be a version of hell on earth.

You can't go home again?

Could be true now for low wealth people.

 

Somewhat darkly ironically Mexico which is the top expat retirement destination for budget oriented Americans has recently greatly increased its financial requirements for residence and also harshly cracked down on people living there for years on visa runs.

 

So maybe now we can say for many you can't go home again or Mexico either!

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Henderson used to be on my own list of somewhat affordable but still with attractions places to consider in the US. Now my list would be more about living in a converted van which might be fun for some but for me would be a version of hell on earth.

You can't go home again?

Could be true now for low wealth people.

Henderson was never a top notch place, but over the years, has gotten much better as people were being driven outside of central Vegas due to high prices.  Bloody hot in the summer!!!!

 

I had an RV for years, but it was a 40' class A motorhome.  Very nice.  But now, prices are crazy, campsites are full, just no fun.

 

I'd love to go back for a bit, but not sure I want to relocate.  For all it's problems, Thailand is still a very good place to live.  Easy and relatively cheap.

 

Hopefully, we'll spend the winter this coming season in Mexico.  Puerto Escondido area. 

[Jingthing]

Zoom towns.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

45 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Zoom towns.

 

 

LOL. Use to own a rental there. Should have kept it!  This was back in 1990.

[meechai]

On 8/20/2021 at 4:21 AM, Jingthing said:

U.S. Housing Prices Explosion Making Repatriation a Less Realistic Option for Many?

 

For most expats, the first backup is repatriation. No visa needed. But some kind of housing is needed!

This so called explosion is nothing new.

It is also the reason expats "should" have kept a toe in the waters back home if there was ever a possibility of returning.

 

But no....Many think F#@k the USA I'm happy now in xxx where life is cheap & I can get everything I need

 

Then they get old & find they cannot get everything they need & also after having a great time in a 3rd world country  developing country their home country did not stand still while they were gone? Surprise Surprise in a Gomer Pyle voice ????

 

Same as always was.........these folks lack planning or have any foresight nothing more.

Land/housing has always gone up in the US decade on decade it really is a great investment. I witnessed same in 2007 as now.

Yes after 2008 it dropped a bit but never returned to low prices of 1980's-90's etc

 

BTW: it really is not prices going up you know? It is as always money going down in worth.

You think Stimulus was printed from thin air?

No it was like adding water to a half bottle of wine ????

 

 

[Jeffr2]

2 hours ago, meechai said:

This so called explosion is nothing new.

It is also the reason expats "should" have kept a toe in the waters back home if there was ever a possibility of returning.

 

But no....Many think F#@k the USA I'm happy now in xxx where life is cheap & I can get everything I need

 

Then they get old & find they cannot get everything they need & also after having a great time in a 3rd world country  developing country their home country did not stand still while they were gone? Surprise Surprise in a Gomer Pyle voice ????

 

Same as always was.........these folks lack planning or have any foresight nothing more.

Land/housing has always gone up in the US decade on decade it really is a great investment. I witnessed same in 2007 as now.

Yes after 2008 it dropped a bit but never returned to low prices of 1980's-90's etc

 

BTW: it really is not prices going up you know? It is as always money going down in worth.

You think Stimulus was printed from thin air?

No it was like adding water to a half bottle of wine ????

 

 

Some of us are not poor and can live back home easily.  But, the lifestyle would be completely different.  And most things would be much more expensive.  Life here is good when you can get someone to fix something for under 1k Baht a day.  Try that back in the US.  Good luck.

 

Prices are going up.  Haven't you read about inflation?  It's more than fiscal policy.

[Jingthing]

3 hours ago, meechai said:

This so called explosion is nothing new.

It is also the reason expats "should" have kept a toe in the waters back home if there was ever a possibility of returning.

 

But no....Many think F#@k the USA I'm happy now in xxx where life is cheap & I can get everything I need

 

Then they get old & find they cannot get everything they need & also after having a great time in a 3rd world country  developing country their home country did not stand still while they were gone? Surprise Surprise in a Gomer Pyle voice ????

 

Same as always was.........these folks lack planning or have any foresight nothing more.

Land/housing has always gone up in the US decade on decade it really is a great investment. I witnessed same in 2007 as now.

Yes after 2008 it dropped a bit but never returned to low prices of 1980's-90's etc

 

BTW: it really is not prices going up you know? It is as always money going down in worth.

You think Stimulus was printed from thin air?

No it was like adding water to a half bottle of wine ????

 

 

Sounds like you're enjoying some schadenfreude.

[meechai]

2 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Prices are going up.  Haven't you read about inflation?  It's more than fiscal policy.

Ummm that is what I said yes? Dollar devalued

 

Also as to your inflation as I also said it is as it ever was it is you that have not kept up

 

in 1985 I built a home materials were 9k & land was 17k

Sold in 2007 for 330k

 

In 2005 I built a home materials were 50k land was 8k

I can sell now for same price as last one about 330-360k

It was always this way. You build you wait real estate prices rise...always if you didn't choose a ghetto to build in

 

Folks living in a 3rd world area like to brag about paying under $30/1000baht but trust me I know a lot about having been a General Contractor all my life

But we still have a home in the North of Thailand. We sold out condo in Chiang Mai but I know about cheap labor & what that is & what you get for that hahah

 

Your right lifestyle can be different or very much the same as it is for us in both places ????

 

Only difference between you & I is I live in both places

 

[meechai]

12 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Sounds like you're enjoying some schadenfreude.

Nah not at all I am saddened to see many even relatives of mine here that suffer the same fate

 

But it is not our fault or the country trying to price anyone out

It is as it always was

 

Some folks like Jeff2 like to brag about getting cheap sub par labor for 1000baht then complain when he has to pay a fair wage in the western world

It is what it is & it is what it always was.

 

Some like to have it both ways...Go live cheap for decades in 3rd world  then get upset when they want to go back to another world & expect everything stated static while they were away eating kow pad.....sorry others are also entitled to a return on their investments they made in their country ...it is their savings return

 

Everyone has choices so it is not pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune...it is your choice, your free will you chose.

Don't now complain about your choice

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, meechai said:

Ummm that is what I said yes? Dollar devalued

 

Also as to your inflation as I also said it is as it ever was it is you that have not kept up

 

in 1985 I built a home materials were 9k & land was 17k

Sold in 2007 for 330k

 

In 2005 I built a home materials were 50k land was 8k

I can sell now for same price as last one about 330-360k

It was always this way. You build you wait process rise...always

 

Folks living in a 3rd world area like to brag about paying under $30/1000baht but trust me I know a lot about having been a General Contractor all my life

But we still have a home in the North of Thailand. We sold out condo in Chiang Mai but I know about cheap labor & what that is & what you get for that hahah

 

Your right lifestyle can be different or very much the same as it is for us in both places ????

 

Only difference between you & I is I live in both places

 

I was with a friend in Colorado this summer.  He needed some work done on his house.  Guess what?  No contractor would take the job as it was only a few days work.  And even then, the prices were eye watering.  So, we did it our selves.  Not something I enjoy doing at my age.  On my knees doing manual labor.

 

I've got no interest in living in 2 places.  I had a 4br 4ba house in Vegas that I sold in 2008.  Beautiful house, right on the golf course, fantastic.  Just didn't want to keep 2 residences.  and for sure, hate that long flight.  This summer was the first time back in the US in 10 years.  We might go back late this year, who knows.

 

Rental cars were sold out, hotels were priced sky high, it was no fun in the US this past year.  Used car prices are up significantly.  Not 100% due to the dollar's devaluation.  Same with prices on many things.  Again, not 100% due to fiscal policies. 

 

I'm a trained economist.  You're a contractor.  I do know about money and inflation.  Masters degree in it and all....