Thailand could see 500,000 more infections if the country rushes reopening

[malibukid]

easier to open the flood gates than to promote and execute a vaccine program.  life is cheap here. Thai think. besides the people who really matter have already been vaccinated.

Edited August 25, 2021 by malibukid

[Jonathan Swift]

17 hours ago, zzzzz said:

why? as far as the sandbox goes, its not the vaccinated, tested new international arrivals that are feeding the outbreak and rises of positive cases in Phuket

Its the local thai's an burmese migrants

Not sure of your point, but beyond all else the delta variant is spreading and will likely come in with foreigners, not locals, but once it gains footing will spread amongst the same routes the same way. The only thing that will stop this is successful vaccination of everyone, which is a long way off. This is just my view, I don't claim scientific expertise.  But the US has failed to stop covid because of its incomplete vaccination and lack of cooperation with masks and safety measures, allowing delta to spread, with many deluded Americans whining about their imaginary rights and freedoms, even as they die too late to change their minds. 

[Jonathan Swift]

12 hours ago, Gottfrid said:

So, now you need to be a professor to state that everything is a possibility. Fantastic!

A Professor of Possibilities, Jeremy Hilary Boob PhD. 

[brewsterbudgen]

1 hour ago, smedly said:

who is "they"

The media.

[southcoast]

More BS and scaremongering. Another good idea to get the tourists back into Thailand. Well done!.

[Bangkok Barry]

According to EconThai, the jobless are those who work only 1-19 hours per week, whereas the employed work at least eight hours per day, or 48 hours per week.

 

And those who work between 20 and 48 hours a week are what? Semi-jobless?

[Jonathan Swift]

I think it's silly to assume that anyone can speak definitively and authoritatively on this thing which has no precedent and can in no way be predicted. It has defied every attempt to predict thus far. So we should not expect one person's word to carry any more weight than any other's, nor should we simply sit and ridicule them one after another for simply trying to address an impossible situation. We are all basically helpless and it makes us all dammed nervous and a bit bellicose. Let's try to be fair and compassionate in the mean time. 

[Bangkok Barry]

16 hours ago, BKKTRAVELER said:

But the alternative is to let many industries collapse and leave millions jobless to starve.

Another alternative is to spend some of Thailand's alleged billions in foreign reserves to assist struggling industries as, for example, the UK has done. But then, the UK government cares about people's welfare. Thailand's doesn't.

[PMinThailand]

Some doctors think it is necessary to add the fear and make ridiculous statements just to have their names pop up in the news!

 

[jacko45k]

20 minutes ago, Jonathan Swift said:

with many deluded Americans whining about their imaginary rights and freedoms, even as they die too late to change their minds. 

Their own worst enemies.

[thailand49]

As long as they keep restriction on their own borders things so be fine whether they open or not it makes no difference the leaders don't really have a clue I hope the pandemic is shining a light for the Thai people for once?????????

[hioctane]

How about mentioning that this is the worse case scenario and is unlikely to happen? Reopening does not mean  to go back to the days before the pandemic.  It does not mean draconian lockdowns. It means living with the virus. It will likely involve negative covid tests before arrival, vaccine passports, masks, social distancing, temperature checks, vaccinating the vulnerable and continually vaccinating the whole population.

[mtls2005]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand could see an additional 500,000 Covid-19 cases and 7,500 fatalities by the end of the year

 

Not sure what is meant here by "additional", either in cases or deaths?

 

I assume it means incremental over some accepted baseline figure?

 

 

Without defining that baseline figure this "prediction" is challenging to understand.

 

 

On their own, these would represent 4,000 cases per day, and 60 deaths, assuming 125 days left in the year.

 

 

[dinsdale]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

[500,000]This includes likely unreported cases and asymptomatic cases, said Dr Thira Woratanarat, a professor of medicine at Chulalongkorn University, on his Facebook page.

This of course is already the case. Without testing in the 100k range we will never know.

Edited August 25, 2021 by dinsdale

[PEE TEE]

That's right bring on the scare mongers we are ALL going to die we are all going to get the dreaded virus . we will all be dropping like fly's in the street . ....   . oh no I've got a runny nose helleeeep  

[DUNROAMIN]

Delta strain is almost  impossible to eradicate, will be like the yearly flu virus, will be here for many years.

[mtls2005]

17 minutes ago, Pracha Duang said:

The entire point of covid is to create a permanent global slave class for the 1%.

 

Ah, it all makes sense to me now....

 

 

But can you tell us "who" is behind this grand scheme? Is it Dr. Evil?

 

 

 

[Nanaplaza666]

2 hours ago, smedly said:

well yes the healthy people are generally not in danger with this strain of the virus but they pose a risk to those that are because they spread it - have you not been paying attention ?, your grand idea seems to be to just throw millions of people under a bus - really bright idea 

 

I wonder what you'd be thinking if this virus mutated into a deadlier version that put everyone at risk (which could still happen) what tremendous plan would you come up with then ????

 

and just consider this - so far covid 19 has killed and estimated 4,463,337 (likely underestimated), if you include the suspected real death total in India alone that would add another conservative 3m deaths to that total - so it is more like 7 million have died 

7 milj on a population of how many ?? And those same virologists that are helping locking up the world and destroying economies are now stating that this virus will become a mild flu virus and only the at risk and voulnarable will need vaccines . This news came out in the dutch newspaper yesterday so i am not a conspiracy theorist or bringing fake news or anti vaxxer(i had my first shot waiting for second wich i will take as well) . But i will not go into it any deeper otherwise i will be banned again for telling the truth . 

[Gottfrid]

48 minutes ago, Bangkok Barry said:

According to EconThai, the jobless are those who work only 1-19 hours per week, whereas the employed work at least eight hours per day, or 48 hours per week.

 

And those who work between 20 and 48 hours a week are what? Semi-jobless?

Nah, they are just lazy. ????

[raccos21]

But they said this couple days ago.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-23/thailand-to-shift-strategy-to-learning-to-live-with-covid-19

[rupert the bear]

a few days ago a thai drs article was quoted telling us he thought all the figs were lies and had been from day 1.lets go with that eh.theyve got who knows how many infections already.we will never know and they never stop lying.its a national obsession!so lets use a little logic,foreigners coming in will have a neg pcr test,thais didnt used to perhaps now im not sure so.....future tourists will be vacced twice too so.....this indicates that theyre not a high risk factor,guess who is?the level of intellect is barely discernable when it emanates from the mouths of any type of officialdom in this place,its unreal.its a blur of lies incompetence,racism,arrogance and of course that old chestnut the self important half wit,at last the locals seem to be seeing things a lot more clearly.i guess covid has focused things somewhat,shall we say its a catalyst?lets hope after the barbarity we saw on media the last few days these goons days are numbered as it seems weve all had enough now.

[Sticky Rice Balls]

Dr Somchai speaks---people listen......

[chiman]

Need to open back up, the economic damage has gone too far now 

[buick]

there have to be at least 50,000 cases/day right now.  so that 500,000 will be reached in 10 days.  there might be 100,000 cases/day right now.  certainly less if one is only counting symptomatic cases.

 

and as one member noted, counting cases is really not all that helpful.  it is the deaths as those can be counted more accurately. 

[Count]

I came for four months last year and I want to come again this year. Last year I had to be tested before I got on the plane. Tested again as soon as I arrived. Quarantined for 15 days. Tested twice in that period. Didn’t bring Covid here didn’t take it back home either. Had to be tested again before I got on the plane and again when I got home had to hotel quarantine for three days when I got home then 11 more at home. No Covid for me. This year I’m vaccinated and again will be tested before I get on the plane and a couple of more times once I arrive. I don’t think it’s us tourists causing the problems.

[Guderian]

19 hours ago, webfact said:

This includes likely unreported cases and asymptomatic cases

Why focus so much on case numbers, especially asymptomatic ones? Please tell us the most important number, how many avoidable deaths will be caused by reopening. After all, most people recover when they get Covid, but death is final.

[BKKTRAVELER]

4 hours ago, smedly said:

what, like sinovac ?

 

people on here have been saying this for weeks yet they still keep buying millions of doses

 

Chinese-made vaccines not effective against Delta variant after one dose - Thailand News - ASEAN NOW formerly Thai Visa Forum

I agree, but since they are starting to place large orders of Pfizer and Moderna for private hospitals, things may look brighter next year.

 

Again, I completely agree that they totally messed up and should have done that 8 months ago...

[BKKTRAVELER]

2 hours ago, Bangkok Barry said:

Another alternative is to spend some of Thailand's alleged billions in foreign reserves to assist struggling industries as, for example, the UK has done. But then, the UK government cares about people's welfare. Thailand's doesn't.

I agree that the 50/50 or 5k relieves once in a while won't make people survive, but again this is Thailand where assistance is minimal compared to Western countries. I knew one day their way of thinking would show its limits, just didn't realize it would be that bad. It may open for adapted measures in the future, "may" being the key word...

[onekoolguy]

This article says that unemployment was 1.06 percent in the first quarter and if not opened it might go to 2.5 percent by the end of the year?

anywhere else those figures would indicate an overheated booming economy?

There must be something that I don't understand?

[RPCVguy]

 

2 hours ago, Pracha Duang said:

yep, at least you somewhat understand what is going on. Covid has always been about power, money, and control. The plebs are low information so they are easy to manipulate. The plebs do not seem to understand that the top 1% have all 100-1000xd their net-worth during covid and that covid has been massively beneficial for us. Meanwhile the 99% will all be crushed financially by inflation due to extreme monetary policies that have been taken “by design”. The middleclass is being systematically wiped out “by design” and everyone is too distracted by “what is basically the flu” to comprehend what is really happening to them. The entire point of covid is to create a permanent global slave class for the 1%. I’m literally part of the 1% so I would know. The elites will not need to hire Burmese for slave labor in the not so distant future. Their own citizens will be more than happy to take those jobs very soon. You think people are desperate now? You haven’t seen anything yet. 

I'm not willing to agree that there was a plan to do what is happening, at least not at first. I will agree on the consequences unfolding and that the 0.01% is doing what they can to wring all the benefits they can. That's what typically is done by those with the resources to weather the early disruptions and realign the policies of what they control. It is still IMO a short term strategy. Limits to Growth (the 1972 report by MIT) AND climate disruptions are each set to add bigger consequences that Covid has thus far leveled. ... So yes, we haven't seen anything yet.
 

52 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Why focus so much on case numbers, especially asymptomatic ones? Please tell us the most important number, how many avoidable deaths will be caused by reopening. After all, most people recover when they get Covid, but death is final.

As of yesterday, Thailand was listed on the Johns Hopkins website as being #10 on Covid Cases over the last 28 days. More consequential is that it was #7 on the Worldometers database list when sorted for severe or critical cases in hospitals.
Those stats put Thailand's current numbers in the range of far larger nations - most with greater resources.

AS MANY HAVE SAID, GETTING PEOPLE VACCINATED EFFECTIVELY NEEDS BE THE #1 PRIORITY AT THIS TIME.
Also IMO, MoPH has done the best they can with the vaccines in hand, but the unpublished study as to Mix-n-Match still needs to report on how quickly the efficacy of those two doses wears off. That's when a round of booster shots will be needed, sufficient to rapidly accommodate the full need of the people.

Falling short of that, and not masking effectively? That's being done in the states of Florida, Louisiana and Texas among others in the USA. I see those as large scale cult followings that far surpass what Jonestown, Guyana saw in 1978. Sad what cults can do to their followers.

 

 

Edited August 25, 2021 by RPCVguy
wrong column highlighted