The sharks are getting hungry

[spidermike007]

44 minutes ago, superal said:

and yet the teflon Thai Baht remains unaffected , in fact it's only 44.5 to the £ today .

What the heck is going on ?  Is there gonna be an almighty Baht crash ?

Great question. One many of us have been pondering, no doubt. I do think it will drop quite a bit more. And I am fairly confident the current "optimism" is misplaced. Tourism is not coming back any time soon, and it may be dead as an industry here, permanently. Sure, they may get 5 million visitors, five years from how, but it will likely remain a pale shadow of what it was. Major sabotage, has had it's effect. 

 

The rest of the economy is going to be a very rough restart. We shall see how things shake out, but unless there is major political change, and reform here, I see Thailand continuing it's tailspin, and it's hurtling towards irrelevancy. 

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, smutcakes said:

What the hell are the banks, loan sharks going to do with 100's of land parcels scattered around rural villages around the country.... you can barely give that <deleted> away never mind sell it.

As far as I know, it is near impossible to get a loan on rural land here, unless it is Chanote, or close to it. The vast majority of rural land is not. So, it is unlikely there is much in the way of land here which has been financed. Of course, that does not mean the land has not been collateralized, but it is unlikely it was done by the banks.

 

I think the far greater worry for the banks is the repossession of vehicles, and condos. That is going to be very significant, and could very likely be one of the reasons they recently lowered the deposit insurance to only one million baht, per account. 

[superal]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Great question. One many of us have been pondering, no doubt. I do think it will drop quite a bit more. And I am fairly confident the current "optimism" is misplaced. Tourism is not coming back any time soon, and it may be dead as an industry here, permanently. Sure, they may get 5 million visitors, five years from how, but it will likely remain a pale shadow of what it was. Major sabotage, has had it's effect. 

 

The rest of the economy is going to be a very rough restart. We shall see how things shake out, but unless there is major political change, and reform here, I see Thailand continuing it's tailspin, and it's hurtling towards irrelevancy. 

Currency valuations are normally influenced by the countries stability and demand for the currency which is dependent on interest rates with high interest rates attracting investment . That is not the case at the moment and who would be putting investment into Thailand at the moment ? Could it be that a certain country is supporting the Baht ?

[spidermike007]

4 minutes ago, superal said:

Currency valuations are normally influenced by the countries stability and demand for the currency which is dependent on interest rates with high interest rates attracting investment . That is not the case at the moment and who would be putting investment into Thailand at the moment ? Could it be that a certain country is supporting the Baht ?

Yes. And it is likely there is some internal manipulation going on also. And some investors (who are very insane and misguided) seem to think the easing of the lockdown, is going to spur the economy, in the short term. Very delusional. 

[PaoloR]

In the Nakhon Si Thamerat area, banks have now stipulated that they will only lend against land with a full Chanote. There are many pieces of land for sale as the usual route of taking loans against land to supplement income or pay back truck loans is now closed off. Land in the countryside is rarely advertised and is sold through word of mouth or part-time agents. Prices (as always) are all over the shop. There is the sad sight of families cutting down their productive rubber trees in order to get a one-time payment for the wood, then planting palm. They will then need to survive 4 years with little income until the palms bear fruit.

[snowgard]

On the legal Execution Departement Website was before Covid at most only 6-9 pages of proprty for auction. Now it's for Pattaya only Pattaya Legal Execution26 pages: https://bit.ly/3gS4Tte

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, superal said:

and yet the teflon Thai Baht remains unaffected , in fact it's only 44.5 to the £ today .

What the heck is going on ?  Is there gonna be an almighty Baht crash ?

Baht is off 10% against the USD in the last eight months...

[chrisandsu]

10 hours ago, Will B Good said:

I agree. I think it is a case of what else will I do?

 

Unskilled, uneducated.....so only option is to grow rice and sugar etc.

Personally I’d call farming a skill . It’s actually a travesty that those who produce our food are the poorest amongst us while some uniform wearing prat is staggeringly rich . 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

Personally I’d call farming a skill . It’s actually a travesty that those who produce our food are the poorest amongst us while some uniform wearing prat is staggeringly rich . 

No shortage of rich farmers and poor people in uniform.

[chrisandsu]

10 hours ago, Boarn said:

I've seen land for sale as well, not priced correctly though otherwise would have bought some. It really is something I can't get my head around land prices in Thailand. I know one plot of 1.1 rai the owner wants to sell for 6 million or rent for 2k a month out in the countryside, it is on a big road but still he's happy to make less than half a percent by renting (which no one is actually renting). Land should be 500k tops.

 

I have always been someone dead against any form of tax on property, but I would like to see property tax be more of a thing in Thailand, if only just to reduce the prices of land and get land out of the hands of people who have no business owning land ie peasants. 

So you would put all the land into the hands of the already wealthy ? What a ridiculous statement . 

[chrisandsu]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

No shortage of rich farmers and poor people in uniform.

In Thailand ? 

[Yellowtail]

16 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

In Thailand ? 

Yes. 

[DJ54]

14 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Unskilled, uneducated.....so only option is to grow rice and sugar etc.

We live on a village and quasi family grows rice and potatoes (tapioca use)

 

True ..... rice usually lasts about a month before next harvest then have to buy 1 bag to cover..

but this year even though we’ve planted more rice came up with having to buy for 3 months..

And its turns out a slight loss.. 

 

Potatoes they have a small return.. then lack of money management aren’t ideal..keeps

them busy most the year and out of my hair,,  it’s all good.

 

[DJ54]

Sorry got off track... yes some villagers up here in Northeast are looking to sell land or borrow (not a chance) money.. Start getting people asking Mama or quasi wife if I want to buy land. Looked at one 

it was so so price we agreed... next day they said another person wants pay more... I said good for

yiu and walked away.. QW was but but but... I said no butt...

 

Borrow nope outta that game .. the Uncle came by QW took me outside to talk (translated) about 

borrowing money... like 60k... asked when will paid back 2-3 months .. asked again he said not sure. 

Sorry you should’ve saved up ... ever since he’s not been to friendly.. I’m ok with that..

[Yellowtail]

5 hours ago, DJ54 said:

Sorry got off track... yes some villagers up here in Northeast are looking to sell land or borrow (not a chance) money.. Start getting people asking Mama or quasi wife if I want to buy land. Looked at one 

it was so so price we agreed... next day they said another person wants pay more... I said good for

yiu and walked away.. QW was but but but... I said no butt...

 

Borrow nope outta that game .. the Uncle came by QW took me outside to talk (translated) about 

borrowing money... like 60k... asked when will paid back 2-3 months .. asked again he said not sure. 

Sorry you should’ve saved up ... ever since he’s not been to friendly.. I’m ok with that..

I always loan people money once.

[Boarn]

10 hours ago, chrisandsu said:

So you would put all the land into the hands of the already wealthy ? What a ridiculous statement . 

Not necessarily, I believe if every man and his feral dog owns a bit of land, 1 rai here, 0.25 rai there this artificially inflates the 'value' of the land. Farm land here is more expensive that farm land in the UK. Average 12k an acre in the UK, a lot less up in Scotland (OK more close to London etc), with 2.5 rai to an acre and people asking 400,000 a rai for land in my area with no real paper something is wrong somewhere.

 

If land was held in a lot larger plots by fewer people I honestly think this would be better for land values.

[elgenon]

Sounds much worse than when the government promoted cheap credit for vehicle purchases to stimulate the economy. People were new to the idea of credit and had to sell the vehicles.

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, elgenon said:

Sounds much worse than when the government promoted cheap credit for vehicle purchases to stimulate the economy. People were new to the idea of credit and had to sell the vehicles.

I thought the policy was to waive the excise tax for first time car buyers making them more affordable, no? 

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, Boarn said:

Not necessarily, I believe if every man and his feral dog owns a bit of land, 1 rai here, 0.25 rai there this artificially inflates the 'value' of the land. Farm land here is more expensive that farm land in the UK. Average 12k an acre in the UK, a lot less up in Scotland (OK more close to London etc), with 2.5 rai to an acre and people asking 400,000 a rai for land in my area with no real paper something is wrong somewhere.

 

If land was held in a lot larger plots by fewer people I honestly think this would be better for land values.

The inflation is real, not artificial. 

 

The fact is, bigger farms are generally better managed and more economical than small farms making food more plentiful.

[Boarn]

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

The inflation is real, not artificial. 

 

The fact is, bigger farms are generally better managed and more economical than small farms making food more plentiful.

Yes inflation is an issue as well of course.

 

But if someone owns half a rai of land and thats all they have in the world they are going to value that piece of land as everything, the be all and end all. Farm land should not be held by peasants in such small lots, or held by peasants at all. If an average lot size was 100 rai for example values would be more reasonable.

 

When you do see bigger plots the prices don't make sense, I'm looking at a 7 rai piece of land now, full chanote but on a dirt road 1 hour out of Chiang Mai. 7 rai is only just under 3 acres. They are asking for 7 million, yes they won't get this but the audacity of this is disgusting. 10% of this would still be more expensive than it should be.

 

Yes it's not going to change but it angers me beyond belief.

[Boarn]

Another issue to land values I see is the rai itself.

 

The rai is a small piece of land 1600sqm, an acre 4000sqm and a hectare 10000sqm.

 

As people think they are getting more of something this can physiologically make people believe in theft values.

 

What we need is a temporary land tax, 5% per year of the value people believe their land is worth paid for the next 5 years, this should get land out of the hands of people who have no business owning it, then remove the tax when it has done its job.

 

Secondly give ALL land proper papers, full chanote. No more nonsense, Sor Por Kor, Sor Tor Gor, Sor Kung Nung, Nor Sor 3 etc. If all land had full papers this would also reduce the price of proper papered land.

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Yes inflation is an issue as well of course.

 

But if someone owns half a rai of land and thats all they have in the world they are going to value that piece of land as everything, the be all and end all. Farm land should not be held by peasants in such small lots, or held by peasants at all. If an average lot size was 100 rai for example values would be more reasonable.

 

When you do see bigger plots the prices don't make sense, I'm looking at a 7 rai piece of land now, full chanote but on a dirt road 1 hour out of Chiang Mai. 7 rai is only just under 3 acres. They are asking for 7 million, yes they won't get this but the audacity of this is disgusting. 10% of this would still be more expensive than it should be.

 

Yes it's not going to change but it angers me beyond belief.

That "peasants" owning property drives up the price up such that it is you cannot afford it is unfortunate, but the same thing happens when they buy anything. If "peasants" were buying up all the condos they would drive the price of those up as well. 

 

Why it angers you is something you should contemplate...

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Another issue to land values I see is the rai itself.

 

The rai is a small piece of land 1600sqm, an acre 4000sqm and a hectare 10000sqm.

 

As people think they are getting more of something this can physiologically make people believe in theft values.

 

What we need is a temporary land tax, 5% per year of the value people believe their land is worth paid for the next 5 years, this should get land out of the hands of people who have no business owning it, then remove the tax when it has done its job.

 

Secondly give ALL land proper papers, full chanote. No more nonsense, Sor Por Kor, Sor Tor Gor, Sor Kung Nung, Nor Sor 3 etc. If all land had full papers this would also reduce the price of proper papered land.

If they want to sell it, they will have to reduce the price until someone buys it, yes? 

[Boarn]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

That "peasants" owning property drives up the price up such that it is you cannot afford it is unfortunate, but the same thing happens when they buy anything. If "peasants" were buying up all the condos they would drive the price of those up as well. 

 

Why it angers you is something you should contemplate...

Hmm not sure I agree here, it's not so much as not being able to afford it, we have a 125 square plot for our main house, as a housing lot this is acceptable but not really ideal, I would prefer a lot big enough to not be disturbed by neighbors, yes I can't afford this, it would be tens of millions!

 

Peasants don't buy land though, they inherit it usually, they are not buying it up, they sitting on it.

 

How could anyone get in to farming in Thailand, when a lot of the size you'd need to make a decent living would costs millions of dollars?

[Boarn]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

If they want to sell it, they will have to reduce the price until someone buys it, yes? 

Agreed, but there is no incentive for people to sell unfortunately, the only good land deals you may find are when people need to sell at all costs, they don't want to sell but need to. Usually inflated prices are received, at least in my area, by people buying land that is strategically beneficial for themselves, ie you're more likely to pay way over the odds for the lot next door then the one down the road. This happens a lot here.

 

I know it's not going to change and my views my be slightly obscure but land prices in Thailand really annoy me, can't help it.

[chrisandsu]

2 hours ago, Boarn said:

Not necessarily, I believe if every man and his feral dog owns a bit of land, 1 rai here, 0.25 rai there this artificially inflates the 'value' of the land. Farm land here is more expensive that farm land in the UK. Average 12k an acre in the UK, a lot less up in Scotland (OK more close to London etc), with 2.5 rai to an acre and people asking 400,000 a rai for land in my area with no real paper something is wrong somewhere.

 

If land was held in a lot larger plots by fewer people I honestly think this would be better for land values.

Land holds and increases in value simply because there is no property tax . It’s an asset that costs you nothing for it to just sit there. Land is massively over valued here but where else do the wealthy put their money ? anything worth buying is already in the hands of the wealthy already . There is hardly a queue around the street trying to buy rice paddy . 

[chrisandsu]

25 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Hmm not sure I agree here, it's not so much as not being able to afford it, we have a 125 square plot for our main house, as a housing lot this is acceptable but not really ideal, I would prefer a lot big enough to not be disturbed by neighbors, yes I can't afford this, it would be tens of millions!

 

Peasants don't buy land though, they inherit it usually, they are not buying it up, they sitting on it.

 

How could anyone get in to farming in Thailand, when a lot of the size you'd need to make a decent living would costs millions of dollars?

The reason the plots have got smaller is exactly that . Let’s say grandpa had 100 rai and had 5 kids when he dies divide that 100 rai by 5 and then with every generation it keeps getting split . Maybe Thailand should be like Scotland where something like 95% of the land is owned by 20 people and the other 5% get to squabble over a council flat in possill  park ?

[Boarn]

1 minute ago, chrisandsu said:

The reason the plots have got smaller is exactly that . Let’s say grandpa had 100 rai and had 5 kids when he dies divide that 100 rai by 5 and then with every generation it keeps getting split . Maybe Thailand should be like Scotland where something like 95% of the land is owned by 20 people and the other 5% get to squabble over a council flat in possill  park ?

Yes, this would be a lot better, land prices in Scotland are reasonable, as low as 3k GBP an acre in some places.

[Yellowtail]

50 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Hmm not sure I agree here, it's not so much as not being able to afford it, we have a 125 square plot for our main house, as a housing lot this is acceptable but not really ideal, I would prefer a lot big enough to not be disturbed by neighbors, yes I can't afford this, it would be tens of millions!

Yes, there are any number of things I would like that I can't afford, but I don't blame the "peasants" for driving up the price. 

 

50 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Peasants don't buy land though, they inherit it usually, they are not buying it up, they sitting on it.

So the "peasants" inherit the land from their hiso parents? However they get it, they have it, and them not selling it keeps the price high.

 

50 minutes ago, Boarn said:

How could anyone get in to farming in Thailand, when a lot of the size you'd need to make a decent living would costs millions of dollars?

That you can't do it does not mean others can't. People get into farming here all the time, some are successful and some aren't. A friend I worked with about ten years ago leased property and farmed it on the side and while he still works at the plant, he makes money with the farm. 

[chrisandsu]

25 minutes ago, Boarn said:

Yes, this would be a lot better, land prices in Scotland are reasonable, as low as 3k GBP an acre in some places.

Where are you seeing that ? A reasonable building plot about a 1/4 of an acre is around £50 k I know as I have been looking for a while .