1 hour ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Let me give a simple example of logic failure. According to scientists’ and doctors’ own claims, covid is more infectious than flu, especially the delta variant. According to statistics from previous years, up to 1 billion people over the world would fall sick to flu every year. Covid should have infected at least that many. But all we keep reading is that bs number of infections they keep peddling to us, much lower than the flu’s yearly. But based on their own research covid spreads faster or at least as fast as flu. Don’t start with masks stopping it, not those thin surgical masks that everyone wears anyhow, half of whom with their nose fully exposed.

 

Conclusion: covid has infected 1 billion people already. Likely more. You can’t claim covid is more infectious than flu and show the number of infections 5 times less than flu at the same time. It makes no sense. It’s either one or the other, not both claims at the same time. Just one example of mass scale brainwashing. Now you can do the math of mortality once you figure out the true number of infections.

 

It’s very likely covid infections reached half a billion or more in 2020 already, before any vaccinations began. Based on the same claim that it’s more infectious than flu. This claim was made as early as March 2020, it’s when i first read it and it was confirmed multiple times after that.

Your logic is comparing apples to oranges. ... in several ways.
1) Covid was more infectious than the flu, BUT people took active measures in social distancing and masks wearing to avoid allowing it to spread as much as the flu.
... thus it did NOT spread as widely as it would have. WHY did they take those measures? Because SARS-CoV-2 proved itself to be a more severe disease,and wherever it broke out, the hospitals filled up and people got stacked in morgues awaiting burial or cremation. The rate of infection was not long allowed to expand freely because of the consequences.
This throws out your conclusions.

2) The infection rate of DELTA is several times higher than the earlier variants. Delta requires greater vigilance, not comparisons to the flu or presumptions as to its prior reach. It is what arrived in Thailand about the time of the Songkran holiday, and its rapid spread got away from what had been a fairly successful program of contact tracing. It has taken an intensified vaccination program putting the highest resources into the most infested areas to BEGIN to slow the spread. The vaccination program has only recently gotten to a high enough portion of those hotspots that the case counts are coming down. Outside those hotspots, the percent of the population who've been vaccinated  is minuscule.  Opening up too quickly will only guarantee many more months of trouble. Continued vaccinations to get 2 shots minimum for over half the population in all provinces must remain the primary focus.

Poor logic and analysis of what has gone past will not help into the future.
 

18 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Thailand has 69 million people. Thailand has 1.28 million detected Corvit cases. Thailand has 12,855 Corvit dead. The death rate for detected Corvit cases in relation is around 1%. The risk of death in relation to the population would be: 12855 × 100 / (69000000-1280000) = 0.018%. Why do some doctors fail to understand that the population is willing to live under normal conditions with this risk.

Because they’ve seen what happens in other countries when you act irresponsibly. Example, UK, slightly lower population more than 150,000 dead people

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

Well some another hard to digest numbers. And they are mathematically correct calculated on the reference date today!

 

On average over the past 10 years, 507,913 people died in Thailand each year.

 

Confirmed COVID-19 cases 1,280,534 +15,452

1.83% of the population

 

COVID 19 deaths 12,855 +224

1.46% of all deaths

 

Healed patients 894,302 +21,658

 

https://countrymeters.info/de/Thailand/coronavirus

 

Numbers when used in context change everything.

 

most in here spout numbers off but they are just numbers pulled from a much larger equation that when in context show a much different story than the one they like to sell 

4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

May I remind you of your assumption regarding another poster on this thread?

 

 

It would appear you are very quick to assume the situation and concerns (or lack of) of others. Yet you are simultaneously so quick to express your faux outrage when someone makes an assumption about you, even when it's based on the content of your posts. 

 

I'm sure if you think long and hard enough you'll be able to find the flaw in your hypocritical, sanctimonious and supercilious position. Then again... ????

It is reasonable to draw conclusions from the content of what other people post.

 

Making assumptions in the absence of any information to support your view is a different matter.

 

Next.

17 hours ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Some members of this forum, who are supposed to be educated enlightened westerners

So you mean the ones who think wearing a mask means under your nose and keeping your chins warm

8 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Not forgetting the half million Russians laced with Sputnik.

Are they the ones that glow n the dark?

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

It is reasonable to draw conclusions from the content of what other people post.

 

Making assumptions in the absence of any information to support your view is a different matter.

 

Next.

Indeed. My conclusions were based on the content of your posts and hence perfectly reasonable..

 

I would say I'm glad you finally agree with me, but that wouldn't strictly be true because (based on the content of your posts) I couldn't give a Monkey's. 

 

Ciao.

56 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

My criticism goes against the ultra tough lockdown advocates, and the original op is one of those. In general for you: All the lockdowns have led to joblessness and loss of income for many Thais.

 

 

.......but save lives. So what is more important for a father/family.... to live a limited poor life or die or suffering from long covid, means not being able to work.? 

That is why lockdowns are necessary, which is common sense to overwhelming number of countries: social distancing is a must in these days of insufficient vaccinations! ????

 

2 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

Well some another hard to digest numbers. And they are mathematically correct calculated on the reference date today!

 

On average over the past 10 years, 507,913 people died in Thailand each year.

 

Confirmed COVID-19 cases 1,280,534 +15,452

1.83% of the population

 

COVID 19 deaths 12,855 +224

1.46% of all deaths

 

Healed patients 894,302 +21,658

 

https://countrymeters.info/de/Thailand/coronavirus

 

 

The numbers are correct, but the timeframe of the numbers (as quoted from your website) is:

 

Quote

* - Percentage of Coronavirus deaths from all the estimated deaths (any reason) since Jan 22 2020 till Sep 05 2021

 

As I pointed out in my previous post, Thailand's deaths in 2020 are completely irrelevant with regards to what is happening NOW.

 

I'll use your figures to calculate the current percentage of covid deaths.

 

Covid deaths have averaged 250/day for the last few weeks.

"507,913 people died in Thailand each year" divided by 365 is 1391 deaths per day.

 

250 divided by 1391 times 100 (percentage) - 250/1391x100

 

17.9% of all current deaths

 

 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&minPopulationFilter=1000000&time=2021-08-20..2021-09-05&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=~THA

5 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

.......but save lives. So what is more important for a father/family.... to live a limited poor life or die or suffering from long covid, means not being able to work.? 

That is why lockdowns are necessary, which is common sense to overwhelming number of countries: social distancing is a must in these days of insufficient vaccinations! ????

 

I generally see it the same way. The only difference that I question are the lockdown measures in detail. And in my opinion, many of the measures are simply overdone.

 

This also includes a healthy balance in a society between health interests and existential interests.

 

What makes sense is the control variable for lockdowns to increasingly adapt to the available intensive care beds.

Not so long ago, Thailand categorically dragged all C19 positive cases to the hospital.

 

Everyone sees this Corvit <deleted> differently. 

 

Some see the reopening of shopping malls as a great danger, others do not see it as a threat to their health. I think a large part of the population has learned how to protect themselves and others.

 

And everyone interprets the C19 numbers for themselves. We will have to deal with the virus around the world for a long time to come. That we can get rid of the virus completely through isolation measures, the thought is already in the history files.

56 minutes ago, nkg said:

 

The numbers are correct, but the timeframe of the numbers (as quoted from your website) is:

 

 

As I pointed out in my previous post, Thailand's deaths in 2020 are completely irrelevant with regards to what is happening NOW.

 

I'll use your figures to calculate the current percentage of covid deaths.

 

Covid deaths have averaged 250/day for the last few weeks.

"507,913 people died in Thailand each year" divided by 365 is 1391 deaths per day.

 

250 divided by 1391 times 100 (percentage) - 250/1391x100

 

17.9% of all current deaths

 

If you extrapolate the month of August, that's ok. Understood.

If you apply longer periods of time (years), the values inevitably become smaller. The virus always appears in a wave motion.

 

Unfortunately, however, it is not possible to calculate how the virus will spread within the individual lockdown phases. Measures to limit the spread of the virus have been in progress since April. And yet the values kept going up until August. The number of cases has been falling since September and the mortality rate follows with a delay. It cannot be said to what extent the individual lockdown measures have had an effect here. There are always only tendencies that appear logical. So far, the virus has always found its way of spreading worldwide, despite lockdowns, forced quarantine, flight bans, etc.

 

30 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

Some see the reopening of shopping malls as a great danger, others do not see it as a threat to their health. I think a large part of the population has learned how to protect themselves and others

As a matter of fact opening malls will be a super spreader event. No doubt about it. 

And as a matter of fact there will be no social distancing possible. 

As long we won't have vaccinated more than 90% of vulnarable groups (as it is in Scandinavia) there is no reason for opening malls or other opportunities where people can meet in bigger groups. 

Distancing and vaccination are ways out of this pandemic. 

Maybe there will be a day to have medicines against this and other viruses than vaccines only. 

5 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

As a matter of fact opening malls will be a super spreader event. No doubt about it. 

And as a matter of fact there will be no social distancing possible. 

As long we won't have vaccinated more than 90% of vulnarable groups (as it is in Scandinavia) there is no reason for opening malls or other opportunities where people can meet in bigger groups. 

Distancing and vaccination are ways out of this pandemic. 

Maybe there will be a day to have medicines against this and other viruses than vaccines only. 

 

9 minutes ago, sawadee1947 said:

As a matter of fact opening malls will be a super spreader event. No doubt about it. 

And as a matter of fact there will be no social distancing possible. 

As long we won't have vaccinated more than 90% of vulnarable groups (as it is in Scandinavia) there is no reason for opening malls or other opportunities where people can meet in bigger groups. 

Distancing and vaccination are ways out of this pandemic. 

Maybe there will be a day to have medicines against this and other viruses than vaccines only. 

Well then every small regional fruit, vegetable, food and street kitchens market would be a super spreader event. But it's not like that. Why?

22 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

contracts to their buddies who are running the Hospitels

I would suggest, you should check,

who is already sitting in the CCSA board …

????

40 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

 

Well then every small regional fruit, vegetable, food and street kitchens market would be a super spreader event. But it's not like that. Why?

Markets are reported as COVID cluster sites. Here’s some examples, there are very many more:

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210330095106405

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/srisoonthorn-market-closed-over-covid-cluster-81165.php

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55391417

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210423171340983

 

 

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

I generally see it the same way. The only difference that I question are the lockdown measures in detail. And in my opinion, many of the measures are simply overdone.

 

This also includes a healthy balance in a society between health interests and existential interests.

 

What makes sense is the control variable for lockdowns to increasingly adapt to the available intensive care beds.

Not so long ago, Thailand categorically dragged all C19 positive cases to the hospital.

 

Everyone sees this Corvit <deleted> differently. 

 

Some see the reopening of shopping malls as a great danger, others do not see it as a threat to their health. I think a large part of the population has learned how to protect themselves and others.

 

And everyone interprets the C19 numbers for themselves. We will have to deal with the virus around the world for a long time to come. That we can get rid of the virus completely through isolation measures, the thought is already in the history files.

“That we can get rid of the virus completely through isolation measures, the thought is already in the history files.”

 

That’ll your own revised history files.

 

Lockdowns and isolation have never been regarded as a means to get rid of the virus.

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Markets are reported as COVID cluster sites. Here’s some examples, there are very many more:

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210330095106405

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/srisoonthorn-market-closed-over-covid-cluster-81165.php

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55391417

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210423171340983

 

 

Not observing the masking rules.

Just now, zzaa09 said:

Not observing the masking rules.

If you say so.

Then why the haitch did they throw everything open?!?

14 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Markets are reported as COVID cluster sites. Here’s some examples, there are very many more:

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210330095106405

 

https://www.thephuketnews.com/srisoonthorn-market-closed-over-covid-cluster-81165.php

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55391417

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG210423171340983

 

 

So why do they leave the markets open? Maybe the deaths in August could have been reduced from 250 to 230, 220, 200, ? per day? Where is the logic of the decision?

15 minutes ago, tomacht8 said:

So why do they leave the markets open? Maybe the deaths in August could have been reduced from 250 to 230, 220, 200, ? per day? Where is the logic of the decision?

Because people absolutely need to eat.

 

And, as the linked articles state individual markets are closed when COVID cases are detected.

 

But you moved the goal posts.

 

Your assertion was markets are not ‘super spreader events’, the evidence is markets are often COVID Cluster sites.

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Because people absolutely need to eat.

 

And, as the linked articles state individual markets are closed when COVID cases are detected.

 

But you moved the goal posts.

 

Your assertion was markets are not ‘super spreader events’, the evidence is markets are often COVID Cluster sites.

I moved nothing here.

Only the comparison between the opening of shopping malls and the open regional markets. I thank you all for the constructive discussion for today and I wish you all that you stay healthy.

The final Covid variant is called communism.

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Because people absolutely need to eat.

 

And, as the linked articles state individual markets are closed when COVID cases are detected.

 

But you moved the goal posts.

 

Your assertion was markets are not ‘super spreader events’, the evidence is markets are often COVID Cluster sites.

Then stay away from these locales. 

Problem resolved. 

 

 

As I'm sure you have little concern for the Thai market goers, their health and the possibility of super spreaders - but instead, trying to create an angst political point. 

3 hours ago, tomacht8 said:

 

Well then every small regional fruit, vegetable, food and street kitchens market would be a super spreader event. But it's not like that. Why?

Sorry, but now you talk nonsense. 

A so called "Super Spreader:, a term used by experts as virologists is an event with thousands of people gathering like football stadions or shopping malls but in no way a fruit stand with a couple of customers at the same time. ????

They can also issue another advisory stating that another surge would be imminent if the CCSA were to increase covid testing rates. After all we do realise that the daily reported daily rate of positive infections is directly related to the number of tests being performed per day. 

 

Anyone doubting this needs to merely plot graphically the daily testing rate and the daily positive result outcome. The current reduction in positive cases is at least partially attributable to a corresponding reduction in testing rates during the same period.

13 hours ago, Fairynuff said:

Are they the ones that glow n the dark?

Not sure but I think a few Thai mixers might be soon.

My GF is currently working in Chonburi while I am working on our house in Sakon Nakhon...her boss has kidly given her some time off to come up for our son's birthday...She gets her 2nd jab on October 1st. Will she need to quarantine for 14 days? Also will she need to quarantine again when she goes back to her Job in Chonburi.,..seems every time I search the net all I get is Phuket sandbox sites