Op-Ed: Thai view on the new AUKUS alliance

[Tanomazu]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

The fact is Xi Jinping has created this situation. China has the largest population but it isn't the world's strongest econonmy. It has the biggest standing army but not the best. The old charge and overrun with numbers just will not work. Without Russia's backing there is no chance China could win a conventional war. With Russia's backing it will be WWIII and this will not be good. All of this because of some idiots megalomania. 

Again, the US is far from insane enough to start a war with China. We saw that with Gen Mark Milley's bending over backwards to kiss up to his Chinese counterparts to ensure they know he would give them advance notice of any strike.

 

Nor is China mad enough to risk its entire economy over Taiwan.

 

So China does not need to win a conventional war. Because there won't be one. America does not have the appetite for one in any event, as we saw with Afghanistan. All China has to do is to keep doing what it's doing, for its maturing economy to keep clocking in superb growth figures the West can only dream of, grow its economy, grow its military, grow its new silk road. In the end, as we see America wobbling domestically and militarily, it's only a question of time until China overtakes everyone.

[Tanomazu]

3 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Your domestic economy is not big enough to support itself. You need foreign markets. Trade embargo by the west mean economic collapse. 

And China has plenty of foreign markets. Even without the US.

 

The US tried a trade embargo with very mixed results. Hobble Huawei? Okay, so Xiaomi becomes the worlds biggest phone company instead. The Chinese economy is like a Hydra, you take one head off and two grow in its place.

 

I very much doubt France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Italy, Spain, Singapore would follow US calls for a global boycott of China. After how the US, UK and Australia showed they will betray their allies in a heartbeat.

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Tanomazu said:

Again, the US is far from insane enough to start a war with China. We saw that with Gen Mark Milley's bending over backwards to kiss up to his Chinese counterparts to ensure they know he would give them advance notice of any strike.

 

Nor is China mad enough to risk its entire economy over Taiwan.

 

So China does not need to win a conventional war. Because there won't be one. America does not have the appetite for one in any event, as we saw with Afghanistan. All China has to do is to keep doing what it's doing, for its maturing economy to keep clocking in superb growth figures the West can only dream of, grow its economy, grow its military, grow its new silk road. In the end, as we see America wobbling domestically and militarily, it's only a question of time until China overtakes everyone.

Really? So why is China having a hissy fit about Australia getting nuclear powered subs?

I will say it again. Its because it demonstrates a hardening of attitudes in the west towards Chinas aggression. 

And if you believe those growth figures do tell us why Chinas house selling market has dropped by 20% in one year and why credit is so hard to come by now in China?

Evergrande?

Yeah signs of a healthy growing economy that is.

[unblocktheplanet]

Always the US bullies with their war toys & arms profits. Time to spend money on people.

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

Again, the US is far from insane enough to start a war with China. We saw that with Gen Mark Milley's bending over backwards to kiss up to his Chinese counterparts to ensure they know he would give them advance notice of any strike.

 

Nor is China mad enough to risk its entire economy over Taiwan.

 

So China does not need to win a conventional war. Because there won't be one. America does not have the appetite for one in any event, as we saw with Afghanistan. All China has to do is to keep doing what it's doing, for its maturing economy to keep clocking in superb growth figures the West can only dream of, grow its economy, grow its military, grow its new silk road. In the end, as we see America wobbling domestically and militarily, it's only a question of time until China overtakes everyone.

You are welcome to your opininion. Let's see what the future holds. China moving rapidly away from capatalism with Chinese characteristics back to a Moaist totalitarian state. We shall see.

[Rookiescot]

2 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

And China has plenty of foreign markets. Even without the US.

 

The US tried a trade embargo with very mixed results. Hobble Huawei? Okay, so Xiaomi becomes the worlds biggest phone company instead. The Chinese economy is like a Hydra, you take one head off and two grow in its place.

 

I very much doubt France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Italy, Spain, Singapore would follow US calls for a global boycott of China. After how the US, UK and Australia showed they will betray their allies in a heartbeat.

Of course they would. All those countries would side with the US. Its a democracy after all not a country ruled by a dictator. 

[Tanomazu]

Just now, dinsdale said:

You are welcome to your opininion. Let's see what the future holds. China moving rapidly away from capatalism with Chinese characteristics back to a Moaist totalitarian state. We shall see.

Yah, China moving away from capitalism. Okay.

 

You're welcome to your opinon.

[Tanomazu]

2 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Of course they would. All those countries would side with the US. Its a democracy after all not a country ruled by a dictator. 

Absolutely unlikely, given the massive economic interests Germany, France, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore all have in China.

 

Why would they hobble their economies to placate an American country that has shown it betrays its allies in a heartbeat? Makes no sense.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Tanomazu

[Artisi]

32 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Now there's a thing. Within an hour of China trying to invade Taiwan (in their fishing boats) the western countries would immediately impose an embargo of ALL Chinese goods.

Chinas economy collapses.

Now your military are getting pumped and your economy is pumped. 

Go for it China. Give us all a laugh.

Fishing boats? , suggest you research the Chinese navel fleet. 

[metisdead]

Several off topic posts and replies about Dunkirk, WW2 have been removed. 

[Rookiescot]

1 minute ago, Tanomazu said:

Absolutely unlikely, given the massive economic interests Germany, France, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore all have in China.

 

Why would they hobble their economies to placate an American country that has shown it betrays its allies in a heartbeat? Makes no sense.

China is not the only market open to those countries either.

Those markets would be faced with an option. China or the rest of the world. Guess which way they are going to jump given they are democracies and China is not.

[Tanomazu]

5 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

Really? So why is China having a hissy fit about Australia getting nuclear powered subs?

I will say it again. Its because it demonstrates a hardening of attitudes in the west towards Chinas aggression. 

And if you believe those growth figures do tell us why Chinas house selling market has dropped by 20% in one year and why credit is so hard to come by now in China?

Evergrande?

Yeah signs of a healthy growing economy that is.

That is purely for domestic consumption. Of course it suits the Chinese to portray the US, UK and OZ as agressors.

 

AUKUS is no hardening of attitude, it's merely a continuation of Five Eyes in the guise of Three Eyes, with a few subs throw in for Australia. None of that matters at all. Neither China will go to war over Taiwan, nor would the US go to war with China. See Mark Milley bending over backwards to assure his Chinese counterparts that will not be the case.

 

Evergrande is actually an example of Chinese regulators doing their job, unlike those in the West. The reason Evergrande is in trouble is because of the rules brought in by the Chinese themselves.

 

We have to see if they make interest payments and if there are real issues China may step in anyway to save it. Let's see.

 

It's a sign of a maturing economy, that rules and regulations are brought in which even the biggest players have to abide by.

[Tanomazu]

"China has the strongest military force in the world according to a study released on March 21 by defence website Military Direct.

 

China wins in a sea war with 406 ships vs Russia with 278 and the USA or India with 202, it said."

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/china-beats-us-in-ultimate-military-strength-index-while-india-comes-in-fourth/china/slideshow/81632470.cms

[Gene1960]

59 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

"China has the strongest military force in the world according to a study released on March 21 by defence website Military Direct.

 

China wins in a sea war with 406 ships vs Russia with 278 and the USA or India with 202, it said."

 

 

The Chinese army and navy has not been tested yet. The last time they made an excursion, the Vietnamese taught them a lesson. 

[Tanomazu]

4 minutes ago, Gene1960 said:

The Chinese army and navy has not been tested yet. The last time they made an excursion, the Vietnamese taught them a lesson. 

That's true, but you could have said the same of the German tank regiments in 1939.

 

Unlike then I do not think any allies will play a major role. The UK is a country which currently looks like it will be running out of gas to produce basic consumer items, as well as running out of meat and concerned about food shortages. Australia is a very small country with negligible military capabilities. If a military conflict were to happen it would be largely down to the US and China. Even Russia would be unlikely to play a role, because the US have already stated that they would not invade China and Russia's strength is on land. Japan and South Korea have surface naval vessels but no submarine capabilities to speak of.

 

If a Sino-American conflict happens it will be, without a doubt a naval affair. And the Chinese have developed new technology which even Pentagon planners think would at the press of a button destroy US aircraft carriers with missiles. The only option the US have is to engage in submarine warfare. To destroy the Chinese naval vessels that transport troops to Taiwan, and to destroy Chinese supply ships.

 

China has 60 submarines. The USA has 66. But of those 14 are SSBNs, so nuclear missile submarines which would only play a role in an all out atomic war, which is more than extremely unlikely due to the need for self-preservation. After all China has 200-300 nuclear missiles that can destroy the entire US, the entire planet, many times over, and the US has even more missiles. For the reason of self-preservation alone therefore a full nuclear war is unlikely.

 

A blockade of the sea around China is another matter, but the Germans did not really bring the UK to its knees despite a successful submarine campaign, whether the US could do so with China, with 52 submarines is hard to say.

 

Either way I strongly doubt the Chinese will go to war with Taiwan. The US have already made clear they do not fancy a war with China, see Gen Mark Milley.

 

 

[mahtin]

Op-ed

An op-ed, short for "opposite the editorial page" or as a backronym the "opinions and editorials page", is a written prose piece typically published by a newspaper or magazine which expresses the opinion of an author usually not affiliated with the publication's editorial board.Wikipedia

 

 

[Gene1960]

34 minutes ago, Tanomazu said:

That's true, but you could have said the same of the German tank regiments in 1939.

 

Unlike then I do not think any allies will play a major role. The UK is a country which currently looks like it will be running out of gas to produce basic consumer items, as well as running out of meat and concerned about food shortages. Australia is a very small country with negligible military capabilities. If a military conflict were to happen it would be largely down to the US and China. Even Russia would be unlikely to play a role, because the US have already stated that they would not invade China and Russia's strength is on land. Japan and South Korea have surface naval vessels but no submarine capabilities to speak of.

 

If a Sino-American conflict happens it will be, without a doubt a naval affair. And the Chinese have developed new technology which even Pentagon planners think would at the press of a button destroy US aircraft carriers with missiles. The only option the US have is to engage in submarine warfare. To destroy the Chinese naval vessels that transport troops to Taiwan, and to destroy Chinese supply ships.

 

China has 60 submarines. The USA has 66. But of those 14 are SSBNs, so nuclear missile submarines which would only play a role in an all out atomic war, which is more than extremely unlikely due to the need for self-preservation. After all China has 200-300 nuclear missiles that can destroy the entire US, the entire planet, many times over, and the US has even more missiles. For the reason of self-preservation alone therefore a full nuclear war is unlikely.

 

A blockade of the sea around China is another matter, but the Germans did not really bring the UK to its knees despite a successful submarine campaign, whether the US could do so with China, with 52 submarines is hard to say.

 

Either way I strongly doubt the Chinese will go to war with Taiwan. The US have already made clear they do not fancy a war with China, see Gen Mark Milley.

 

 

It’s a very interesting analysis. Thank you. 

First, Germany in 1939 was hardly inexperienced, it was only two decades from the end of the WW1. They had kept the capabilities and military education. 

Second,  it’s impossible to defeat a continental power in a naval campaign. If you want to defeat China, you will have to destroy their commanding centers and any threat to the CCP/PLA command lines means a nuclear conflict. Impossible! That’s why I am not so much worried about the current situation with Taiwan. 

 

[mrfill]

1 hour ago, Gene1960 said:

The Chinese army and navy has not been tested yet. The last time they made an excursion, the Vietnamese taught them a lesson. 

The Viets taught the French a lesson in the 1950s and the Americans in the 60s/70s. Lessons that neither seem to have learnt from.

[Tanomazu]

56 minutes ago, Gene1960 said:

It’s a very interesting analysis. Thank you. 

First, Germany in 1939 was hardly inexperienced, it was only two decades from the end of the WW1. They had kept the capabilities and military education. 

Second,  it’s impossible to defeat a continental power in a naval campaign. If you want to defeat China, you will have to destroy their commanding centers and any threat to the CCP/PLA command lines means a nuclear conflict. Impossible! That’s why I am not so much worried about the current situation with Taiwan. 

 

Their tank regiments were very inexperienced, since they were newly formed. You will recall there was no major role for German tanks in WWI.

 

You're probably right that you can not defeat China militarily without a full war, however, if the US were to put in effect a full naval blockade, could they not bring the Chinese economy to its knees by means of the naval blockade alone?

 

A strong "if" granted, since the Chinese sea is a big area, and the Germans failed to bring the UK to its knees with a submarine blockade alone.

[The Cipher]

An interesting paradox of the average person that I've noticed is that when observing a task like remodeling a kitchen or fixing a car, most people are aware of their limitations and refrain from offering unqualified opinions or advice.

 

But when it comes to the topics of global finance, geopolitics, and macroeconomic linkages, those same people - many of whom can barely manage their own households - suddenly turn into experts.

 

Multiple lessons in there.

[Edwin Cameron]

Thailand do you really think that China will be your loyal ally above the U.S Britain and Australia, we have a right to have a good strategic defence system,you have to remember they are nuclear powered Sub's, not Sub's with nuclear warheads, Thailand is looking at China with 'Rose coloured glass's' one day I can see AUKUS coming to your defence, look what happened to Australia when they questioned there human rights for Uighurs. they went ballistic and tried the Bully Boy tactic that has backfired,also where does this Covid 19 originate from? ask them a question about it and they call you names like America's running dog or chewing gum stuck to the bottom of there shoes, they said it. We have a right to defend ourselves just as you have the right also.

[boogiewoogie]

16 hours ago, Denim said:

Rubbish.

 

Thailand is now a virtual vassal state of China so this parroting of the Chinese Communist Party line is to be expected.

 

The reality is that the Chinese have been steadily building up their naval strength , have built illegal island bases on China sea reefs , in fact have laid claim to the whole sea riding rough shod over territorial claims of the Philippines , Vietnam , Malaysia and Brunei. 

 

In addition they have made repeated promises to retake Taiwan by force, have repeatedly violated the air space of the above three countries and threatened retaliation against Japan or the USA should they try to come to Taiwans defense.

 

The Chinese Communist party is doing more to wreck the stability of the region than all the others combined. Make no mistake, they started this race themselves and expect everyone else to be intimidated by their threats. If they are foolish enough to start something they will quickly come to regret it. In the meantime they are hoping their bullying and swaggering will get them hegemony over the area without any interference. 

China builds illigal naval bases))) this is sweet. Well, good for them. 

By the way. Have u ever heard about Diego Garcia base? I wonder if u consider this base to be legal.

[jacko45k]

11 hours ago, dinsdale said:

There was no Tianamen square. That part of history has been erased and millions of young people do not know it happened. History has been rewritten and this only happens under a dictatorship.

Or in Hollywood......

[herfiehandbag]

13 hours ago, mfd101 said:

The initial public opinion surveys in Oz after the announcement startle even me: Positive reactions in the 80%s from Liberal & National voters, 60-70% from ALP voters and 50% from Greens voters. Similar results on eventual move to nuclear power across the continent.

Waking up to reality?

[herfiehandbag]

12 hours ago, NeoDinosaw said:

The Thai subs were not bought for military purposes ............

Wasn't one of the quoted reasons for their purchase to ensure that Thailand's regional neighbours were 'in awe" of Thailand's military potential?

 

Bit of a damp squib then, that one, it turns out...

[EVENKEEL]

3 hours ago, boogiewoogie said:

China builds illigal naval bases))) this is sweet. Well, good for them. 

By the way. Have u ever heard about Diego Garcia base? I wonder if u consider this base to be legal.

Have you been to Diego Garcia? Has a pier for 2 ships only. It's legal as long as you don't ask the fellas that that kicked out.

[Sqoop]

I would examine the CCP map of shame to understand this move. Also remember that CCP diplomatic staff threatened to bomb Australian territory. Given that Thailand falls within the target area of the map you can understand that there will be trouble in the future. However, Taiwan will likely be the first target in the next couple of years. 

[Sqoop]

14 hours ago, Pravda said:

Does anyone know what happened to CANZUK alliance? I feel Canada is always left out.

From a military perspective or just an economic point of view ? Considering the former I don’t think it could work as NZ is anti nuclear whereas the UK is not. 

[GreasyFingers]

13 hours ago, steven100 said:

yes, i have been to both those facilities ... they are not US-AU military camps as such, they have a few Australian army personnel but that's about it.  Did you not understand my comment.

Australia NEEDS US- AUSTRALIA permanent defense facilities in the Top end period !!   I mean permanently stationed US F-35 Fighter jets and a 1000 army personnel.   If you want a show of deterrent,  then do it forcefully   !! 

Larrakeyah is a whole suburb of American personnel. As for Derby the contract to build 1000 house for them might not have gone ahead. Nothing on Google Earth unless it has been blanked out.

[steven100]

13 hours ago, Tanomazu said:

I very much doubt France, Germany, Indonesia, Malaysia, Italy, Spain, Singapore would follow US calls for a global boycott of China. After how the US, UK and Australia showed they will betray their allies in a heartbeat.

i'm not so sure about your assumption.....   

given that all of the countries you mentioned are fully aware that China was likely responsible for the Covid-19,  and the devastation it caused to all their economies. 

I would suspect many of them would boycott China made if the majority took a lead in doing so.   just my opinion.

They are not in the slightest concerned about betrayal and the AUKUS,  that will all be forgotten in a few months time.