Thailand detects fourth potential Omicron case, first three confirmed

[Mr Derek]

2 hours ago, Khabib said:

Here's an idea, that pharmaceutical companies would think of like the plague. Why can't they take covid, and then genetically modify it so that is becomes like we hope omicron may turn out to be. Then release it into the population in order to protect naturally without all the vaccines. Guess the answer is obvious. I believe science has genetically modified mosquitoes so that any offspring they have, the females are rendered sterilised (or something like that). Any budding scientists have an opinion on that. Even if it's to say, "that's bonkers" 555

What could possibly go wrong?

Presumably those were the kind of games they were playing in the laboratory at Wuhan.

[Mr Derek]

2 hours ago, Macrohistory said:

 

Ridiculous to say that Omicron is "weak and feeble."  It's only causing mild disease because so far it's only been expanding into populations in which the vast majority of people have either (a) already had Covid at some point, most likely from Delta; (b) been double (at least) vaxxed with an mRNA vaccine; and (c) are younger.  Now let's see what happens as it rapidly expands into populations of under-vaxxed (including non-vaxxed) people and older people in places like the UK, Europe, and the US.

 

Thailand, too, could well suffer because it has generally been using sub-par vaccines and has barely begun boosting.

 

 

I call this 'believing what you fear,' which is just as irrational as 'believing what you want to believe', but not as rational as 'believing the available evidence'.

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Macrohistory said:

(SOURCE for below: https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1469456805491138560)

 

Except that Omicron is not spreading exponentially. 

[Macrohistory]

15 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except that Omicron is not spreading exponentially. 

 

Whether the growth rate is technically exponential or not, the same logic applies.  We will soon see how the logic plays out in the UK.

 

(SOURCE: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch)

 

 

[Danderman123]

Just now, Macrohistory said:

 

Whether the growth rate is technically exponential or not, the same logic applies.  We will soon see how the logic plays out in the UK.

 

(SOURCE: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch)

 

 

When people in general become aware of a new virus, they change their behavior to reduce the number of new infections. As a result, what seems exponential over the short term, often flattens out. 

[Macrohistory]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

When people in general become aware of a new virus, they change their behavior to reduce the number of new infections. As a result, what seems exponential over the short term, often flattens out. 

 

That's generally true, although less so in places like the US and (to a lesser extent) UK where Covid-deniers abound.  But behavior will have to change *radically* to prevent the easily-transmitted Omicron from causing cases to increase to levels that cause deaths to mount significantly.  Let's see how things look around New Year's Day.

 

 

[Khabib]

1 hour ago, Mr Derek said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Presumably those were the kind of games they were playing in the laboratory at Wuhan.

I'm only trying to look for solutions, not problems. That's all, if its ok for you.

[Khabib]

28 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

When people in general become aware of a new virus, they change their behavior to reduce the number of new infections. As a result, what seems exponential over the short term, often flattens out. 

The only thing about that is, the virus isn't exactly new anymore.

[Khabib]

25 minutes ago, Macrohistory said:

 

That's generally true, although less so in places like the US and (to a lesser extent) UK where Covid-deniers abound.  But behavior will have to change *radically* to prevent the easily-transmitted Omicron from causing cases to increase to levels that cause deaths to mount significantly.  Let's see how things look around New Year's Day.

 

 

Happy new year to you, I hope, as well as for myself.

[Khabib]

And just to say, my adolescent children, age 15 and 17, have both been double vaxed by pfizer. My answer to their question about is it the right thing to do, I suggested it's very much a personal decision. So I couldn't make an input on that, myself. That's an unusual position for myself as a father to be in.

[EricTh]

Sooner of later, Thailand is going to require a booster shot like some other countries to fight against this new variant.

 

 

[Khabib]

4 minutes ago, EricTh said:

Sooner of later, Thailand is going to require a booster shot like some other countries to fight against this new variant.

 

 

Let's hope it's the omicron natural booster.

[Kadilo]

More latest positive news re Omicron posted today in another thread. :

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/south-african-doctors-see-signs-omicron-is-milder-than-delta/2021/12/11/6463d964-5a57-11ec-8396-5552bef55c3c_story.html

[spidermike007]

6 hours ago, Macrohistory said:

 

Ridiculous to say that Omicron is "weak and feeble."  It's only causing mild disease because so far it's only been expanding into populations in which the vast majority of people have either (a) already had Covid at some point, most likely from Delta; (b) been double (at least) vaxxed with an mRNA vaccine; and (c) are younger.  Now let's see what happens as it rapidly expands into populations of under-vaxxed (including non-vaxxed) people and older people in places like the UK, Europe, and the US.

 

Thailand, too, could well suffer because it has generally been using sub-par vaccines and has barely begun boosting.

 

 

There has been nothing to date to suggest it is deadly, or that the symptoms are anything of great concern. Anything to the contrary is simply a dire prediction, without basis in fact. 

[Rimmer]

An inflammatory post has been removed

[Blumpie]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There has been nothing to date to suggest it is deadly, or that the symptoms are anything of great concern. Anything to the contrary is simply a dire prediction, without basis in fact. 

Very true words here.

The only problem that people are facing is it 1 percent end up in the hospital is all.  Other than that, let her rip I say.  As for killing people, the virus hardly even does that.  You don't even get a sniffle!

I think what they are doing is waiting for the hard data to come in which is taking time.  

I am not afraid of omicron.  

[Virt]

8 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

When people in general become aware of a new virus, they change their behavior to reduce the number of new infections. As a result, what seems exponential over the short term, often flattens out. 

Hopefully, but here in Denmark we went from 18 omicron cases to total 1280 in just 7 days.

(EDIT. The new numbers were just updated and it went from 1280 yesterday to total 1840 cases today, so today it's 10% of the daily cases that is Omicron variant)

If that growth rate continues, we will see more omicon infections than Delta within the next 2 to 3 weeks.

 

18 people in hospital with the Omicron variant at the moment, so that's at least positive for now.

Hopefully it stays like that.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Virt

[Bkk Brian]

30 minutes ago, Virt said:

Hopefully, but here in Denmark we went from 18 omicron cases to total 1280 in just 7 days.

(EDIT. The new numbers were just updated and it went from 1280 yesterday to total 1840 cases today, so today it's 10% of the daily cases that is Omicron variant)

If that growth rate continues, we will see more omicon infections than Delta within the next 2 to 3 weeks.

 

18 people in hospital with the Omicron variant at the moment, so that's at least positive for now.

Hopefully it stays like that.

Similar or worse picture currently in the UK. The "UKHSA also estimate that at the current observed doubling rate of between two and a half and three days, by the end of this month, infections could exceed 1 million.” With the Omicron to become dominant variant by early next week

 

Even if the severity were half that of Delta, this could be outweighed by the sheer number of infections, the scientists said.

 

Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England without tougher restrictions - experts

 

 

[jts-khorat]

36 minutes ago, Virt said:

18 people in hospital with the Omicron variant at the moment, so that's at least positive for now.

Hopefully it stays like that.

What should not be forgotten is: it takes an average of 10 days (with the previous strains) to have to go into hospital ICU after first symptoms. So if the new variant is not as harmless as people wish it to be, we will only know in a while.

 

I just had Delta and it really was no fun at all, evben though I was double vaccinated; and there was a strong worsening of symptoms after having had it for a week.

 

So I believe, it is much too early to say anything at all about how bad this new variant will be.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Blumpie said:

Very true words here.

The only problem that people are facing is it 1 percent end up in the hospital is all.  Other than that, let her rip I say.  As for killing people, the virus hardly even does that.  You don't even get a sniffle!

I think what they are doing is waiting for the hard data to come in which is taking time.  

I am not afraid of omicron.  

I am more afraid of spraining my ankle, or getting mowed down by a car on my scooter. Omicron? Not. Covid. Not at all. 

[Blumpie]

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I am more afraid of spraining my ankle, or getting mowed down by a car on my scooter. Omicron? Not. Covid. Not at all. 

And every day it is less and less afraid.  

Figures out today?  90 percent who were admitted to hospital with DELTA required oxygen.  Currently 10 percent who have Omicron require oxygen.  And hardly any are going to the hospital with omicron.  

There is the news, and there is rough scientific data being released and picked apart every day.  Go with the latter, not the former.  

No wonder JP morgan said that this was the end of the pandemic, and rightfully so.  One more wave and that's it.

[Blumpie]

Well I should mention to my previoupost so far it appears if this is the case this will be the end of the pandemic.  

[sezze]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Similar or worse picture currently in the UK. The "UKHSA also estimate that at the current observed doubling rate of between two and a half and three days, by the end of this month, infections could exceed 1 million.” With the Omicron to become dominant variant by early next week

 

Even if the severity were half that of Delta, this could be outweighed by the sheer number of infections, the scientists said.

 

Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths in England without tougher restrictions - experts

 

 

UK now got 1898 confirmed cases of Omicron . If it really is a less virulent variant will show very soon . Let's get the hopes up , otherwise might be a very bad winter coming . 

[spidermike007]

21 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

And every day it is less and less afraid.  

Figures out today?  90 percent who were admitted to hospital with DELTA required oxygen.  Currently 10 percent who have Omicron require oxygen.  And hardly any are going to the hospital with omicron.  

There is the news, and there is rough scientific data being released and picked apart every day.  Go with the latter, not the former.  

No wonder JP morgan said that this was the end of the pandemic, and rightfully so.  One more wave and that's it.

Thank you. A sane voice speaking truth. No need to panic, or even be worried, without any cause. Omi looks like nothing but upside so far! 

[sezze]

58 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Thank you. A sane voice speaking truth. No need to panic, or even be worried, without any cause. Omi looks like nothing but upside so far! 

Nothing but upside is a bit too strong language . There are atm good signs , but they can turn very bad very fast . Better be safe then sorry , you remember 1st wave yes ? I heard about it around X-mas/NY about some new virus in China , next nothing to worry , next littlebit worry , next Wuhan lockdown ... thats bad but it's China so far away . Next up boom and we are where we are now , 2 years later .

The data from UK is the ones needing follow up , since i do not trust the data from SA , not that there aren't good things there , but data out of Africa in general is very spotted and a complete different situation then in UK and for that the Western world .

These are not good numbers ... and so far , even the most careful projections give it a less then 50% hospital admissions over Delta . The spread is too fast to make up for that , but it might just be ok , if the vaccines still do their job . So , yes , there are some good signs , but there are some very worrying also . Data will be out in 1 week at max  , the way this is spreading .

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Thank you. A sane voice speaking truth. No need to panic, or even be worried, without any cause. Omi looks like nothing but upside so far! 

Honestly it's beyond ridiculous in a way - nearly 75 percent of the cases are asymptomatic!  They don't even know that they have it.  Of course this is all preliminary but my god virologists are astounded right now.

To play the devils advocate they are still not 100 per cent sure, but this data so far isn't lying.  IT's there, but obviously more people need to have this disease run its course before they jump to conclusions.

 

[Blumpie]

10 minutes ago, sezze said:

Nothing but upside is a bit too strong language . There are atm good signs , but they can turn very bad very fast . Better be safe then sorry , you remember 1st wave yes ? I heard about it around X-mas/NY about some new virus in China , next nothing to worry , next littlebit worry , next Wuhan lockdown ... thats bad but it's China so far away . Next up boom and we are where we are now , 2 years later .

The data from UK is the ones needing follow up , since i do not trust the data from SA , not that there aren't good things there , but data out of Africa in general is very spotted and a complete different situation then in UK and for that the Western world .

These are not good numbers ... and so far , even the most careful projections give it a less then 50% hospital admissions over Delta . The spread is too fast to make up for that , but it might just be ok , if the vaccines still do their job . So , yes , there are some good signs , but there are some very worrying also . Data will be out in 1 week at max  , the way this is spreading .

On the other hand, if this is a flu and that's it (like a flu) then honestly these are great numbers.

Again, as you mentioned they have to be cautious.  IF it isn't and they let her rip well hooooweee, there's going to be a lot of coffins put in the ground.  

[sezze]

8 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

On the other hand, if this is a flu and that's it (like a flu) then honestly these are great numbers.

Again, as you mentioned they have to be cautious.  IF it isn't and they let her rip well hooooweee, there's going to be a lot of coffins put in the ground.  

If it is , then it blows all other corona virus straight out of the water , and land and sky also . Those numbers are doubling every 2 days !!! Wont be long before we get the data from elderly / weak / vaxxed and un vaxxed being infected and hopefully only running nose , but has to be like that since the spread is way too fast to get any hospital up to that kind of speed .

[jacko45k]

17 hours ago, Mr Derek said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Presumably those were the kind of games they were playing in the laboratory at Wuhan.

Catch the test tube?

[Blumpie]

1 hour ago, sezze said:

If it is , then it blows all other corona virus straight out of the water , and land and sky also . Those numbers are doubling every 2 days !!! Wont be long before we get the data from elderly / weak / vaxxed and un vaxxed being infected and hopefully only running nose , but has to be like that since the spread is way too fast to get any hospital up to that kind of speed .

Well I hate to say it but like it or not this is 3X more catchy than Delta and it's going around the world, killing or not.  

We all get that it takes 10 days for things to get worse - it could kill you a month from now.  That's why we're all waiting with baited breath. ????  Either way it doesn't really matter, now does it?  ITs happening.