Grim economic outlook in Thailand if an Omicron outbreak drags on for months

[snoop1130]

 

Thai economists have expressed concern that an outbreak of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, if it drags on for a long period, will severely impact Thailand’s economic growth.

 

Amornthep Jawala, assistant managing director of the research office of CMB Thai Bank, said yesterday that, although the office has not yet adjusted down Thailand’s GDP projection for next year, set at 3.8%, he admitted that there is a possibility that the Thai GDP will contract more than originally forecast, due to the impacts on the tourism sector and domestic consumption from an Omicron variant outbreak, although the impacts may not be as bad from lockdown restrictions.

 

He predicted that Thailand’s GDP may shrink to just 3% if an outbreak drags on for about six months,  At this stage, however, he said he is optimistic that an outbreak will not last more than three months, after which the economy quickly recover.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/grim-economic-outlook-in-thailand-if-an-omicron-outbreak-drags-on-for-months/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-12-28

 

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[WEBBYB808]

Its already happening!  All the bars and other things opened way too soon.  Two bars and a hotel on Soi 6 have had people test positive  for covid.  Ambulance,  picks them up, days after submitting  a test.  This will by far be the worst as far as spreading.  I been here since prior Feb 2020.  I seen the cycle to know its comong again.  Danger or deadly strain?  Thats still unknown.   But if it fills up hospitals how can people be treated for orher conditions?  Opened the bars too soon.  Covid is spreading in Issan, and as a catalyst everyone rushed back to sit at bars to be next to flesh.  Everyone wants boosters. And thats whats needed  now.  Lets hope they have enough. As it was short before.

[ed strong]

This marks the end of the pandemic imo.

 

Its onwards and upwards from now, the only thing we have to make sure if is having enough money to deal with price increases that are surely going to continue to happen.

 

Anyway the outlook is good compared to last year

[Karma80]

Basing economic speculation on assumptions regarding the resolution of an evolving pandemic situation is just wild betting and hot air.

 

It's more a shame that in the last 2 years, Thailand has done nothing to pivot it's economy in any significant way other than the latest "hub of nonsense" announcement peddled weekly.

[fredscats]

11 minutes ago, ed strong said:

This marks the end of the pandemic imo.

 

Its onwards and upwards from now, the only thing we have to make sure if is having enough money to deal with price increases that are surely going to continue to happen.

 

Anyway the outlook is good compared to last year

Which planet have you come from?

[ed strong]

13 minutes ago, fredscats said:

Which planet have you come from?

The planet that is optimistic, the planet that sees all the information for what it is.

 

Just wait and see.....

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

He predicted that Thailand’s GDP may shrink to just 3% if an outbreak drags on for about six months,  At this stage, however, he said he is optimistic that an outbreak will not last more than three months, after which the economy quickly recover.

Unfortunately that scenario would mean tourists diverting their travel to other countries - not Thailand. Nobody would be booking a holiday to Thailand on the 'hope' of an opening after March. Thailand by delaying the spread is once again getting more out of sync - Thailand will be on countries red lists just as the other countries start opening - again ! If the data holds up, better to let it rip and live with the consequences. 

 

My daughter wont have been to school soon for a year due to these clowns and their continual  abusing of their position

[steven100]

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

if it drags on for a long period, will severely impact Thailand’s economic growth.

that's like saying if it rains for 20 days there will be flooding.   

[Venom]

That's good news for some. Not all businesses are going under in fact the select few are expanding at a rate that far exceeds pre-covid levels. 

[Capella]

News coming out of places where omicron was first observed, like South Africa, indicates that Omicron is more like a common cold for the vast majority of people who catch it. I'm one of those people for me it was just a cold and was over in a few days.

 

Omicron is good news - it only causes mild illness, and because it's so contagious it's displacing covid strains that can cause more serious illness - for example Omicron now accounts for 90% of new cases in the UK. Due to the rapid onset and shorter course of Omicron, isolation periods are being reduced to just five days after a positive test in the US, seven in the UK, ten in Australia, and zero days for asymptomatic but positive cases in South Africa.

 

Unless a more virulent strain that's more transmissible than Omicron appears very quickly, the pandemic is thankfully nearing it's end.

 

I hope that Thai authorities accept that Omicron is unstoppable sooner rather than later.

[fredscats]

10 minutes ago, Capella said:

News coming out of places where omicron was first observed, like South Africa, indicates that Omicron is more like a common cold for the vast majority of people who catch it. I'm one of those people for me it was just a cold and was over in a few days.

 

Omicron is good news - it only causes mild illness, and because it's so contagious it's displacing covid strains that can cause more serious illness - for example Omicron now accounts for 90% of new cases in the UK. Due to the rapid onset and shorter course of Omicron, isolation periods are being reduced to just five days after a positive test in the US, seven in the UK, ten in Australia, and zero days for asymptomatic but positive cases in South Africa.

 

Unless a more virulent strain that's more transmissible than Omicron appears very quickly, the pandemic is thankfully nearing it's end.

Not been reading news from France,Italy,UK then,numbers sky rocketing,and coming Thailand's way

[Capella]

7 minutes ago, fredscats said:

Not been reading news from France,Italy,UK then,numbers sky rocketing,and coming Thailand's way

The numbers are certainly skyrocketing, but hospitalisations aren't. Read my post again - omicron is extremely transmissible, but causes much less serious disease than previous covid strains. 

[fredscats]

Just now, Capella said:

The numbers are certainly skyrocketing, but hospitalisations aren't. Read my post again - omicron is extremely transmissible, but causes much less serious disease than previous covid strains. 

Not even a foothold as yet in Thailand,give it a week or so

[Capella]

Just now, fredscats said:

Not even a foothold as yet in Thailand,give it a week or so

It's unstoppable, but it isn't severe. For me and nearly everyone else, it's just like a common cold. 

[fredscats]

3 minutes ago, Capella said:

It's unstoppable, but it isn't severe. For me and nearly everyone else, it's just like a common cold. 

I'm just getting over it,"just like a common cold"   I think not,10 days of misery  and Asians are far more prone to pneumonia

[sirineou]

37 minutes ago, Capella said:

News coming out of places where omicron was first observed, like South Africa, indicates that Omicron is more like a common cold for the vast majority of people who catch it. I'm one of those people for me it was just a cold and was over in a few days.

Running like wildfire in the US!! Not just a cold!!

My 26 year old daughter came down with it three days ago, since then a friend and four other relatives tested positive. All this time I did not personally know of anyone who had covid , In a couple of days I know six. 

My Daughter is running a fever and says had the worst body pain she ever experienced, Her partner was throwing  up all last night. Let's hope you are right and it is only a severe flue. but certainly not "Just a cold" .

Don't get complaisant, don't take any chances.  err on the side of caution. 

[hotchilli]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai economists have expressed concern that an outbreak of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, if it drags on for a long period, will severely impact Thailand’s economic growth.

Expect the first half of next year to be disrupted.

[Capella]

9 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Running like wildfire in the US!! Not just a cold!!

My 26 year old daughter came down with it three days ago, since then a friend and four other relatives tested positive. All this time I did not personally know of anyone who had covid , In a couple of days I know six. 

My Daughter is running a fever and says had the worst body pain she ever experienced, Her partner was throwing  up all last night. Let's hope you are right and it is only a severe flue. but certainly not "Just a cold" .

Don't get complaisant, don't take any chances.  err on the side of caution. 

I hope your daughter recovers very soon. As you say, it's everywhere and it so easy to catch. I caught it from my wife - she and four of her colleagues went to an event that was a hotspot. Four out of the five attendees caught it. Omicron spreads like wildfire.

 

Here in Australia, the government now says that everyone will probably catch it, and the focus is now on helping people with serious symptoms rather than containment.

 

Whilst Omicron certainly isn't pleasant - I had a fever with it - it does pass relatively quickly. That said, your daughter should talk to a doctor if she has severe symptoms. 

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Running like wildfire in the US!! Not just a cold!!

My 26 year old daughter came down with it three days ago, since then a friend and four other relatives tested positive. All this time I did not personally know of anyone who had covid , In a couple of days I know six. 

My Daughter is running a fever and says had the worst body pain she ever experienced, Her partner was throwing  up all last night. Let's hope you are right and it is only a severe flue. but certainly not "Just a cold" .

Don't get complaisant, don't take any chances.  err on the side of caution. 

The severity will as expected effect people differently but according to this report you're right, its certainly not just a case of a cold.

 

From a science health writer he gives a good lowdown on catching it:

 

"Based on my virtual doctor’s description, my symptoms started mild, before the effects moved toward being moderate and then circled back to mildish. Imagine feeling teeth-chattering chills, a stifling cough and slight shortness of breath — on and off every six hours.

 

To track my situation before it could progress to a dangerous state, my private health care provider advised that I obtain a pulse oximeter

 

No one should be surprised that I was infected even while boosted. Based on the latest findings from the United Kingdom, the omicron variant is already starting to break through a booster shot’s barrier against infection, though protection against severe disease will be retained for most people."

 

https://gothamist.com/news/what-a-mild-to-moderate-omicron-case-feels-like

[steven100]

33 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Running like wildfire in the US!! Not just a cold!!

My 26 year old daughter came down with it three days ago, since then a friend and four other relatives tested positive. All this time I did not personally know of anyone who had covid , In a couple of days I know six. 

My Daughter is running a fever and says had the worst body pain she ever experienced, Her partner was throwing  up all last night. Let's hope you are right and it is only a severe flue. but certainly not "Just a cold" .

Don't get complaisant, don't take any chances.  err on the side of caution. 

sounds like they are spreading it everywhere ....  they all have to self isolate and get tested.  

and let the neighbours know also,  don't go out buying food and spreading it,  order grab or delivery.

[meechai]

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai economists have expressed concern that an outbreak of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, if it drags on for a long period, will severely impact Thailand’s economic growth.

Economic outlook has been grim since 2014...don't blame Omicron

[wensiensheng]

I am sure that there are people and specific industries/areas that have suffered financially. I live in Phuket and have seen kata and karon for myself. But at the same time, I am in Udon for Xmas and new year and this place is very busy. Every restaurant I have been in has been bustling if not full and plenty of Thais eating high end all you can eat buffets at 800baht per person!

 

based on what is happening in Udon town, you would not know there is a pandemic let alone financial distress as a result.

[wensiensheng]

1 hour ago, Capella said:

The numbers are certainly skyrocketing, but hospitalisations aren't. Read my post again - omicron is extremely transmissible, but causes much less serious disease than previous covid strains. 

According to the bbc website, Uk hospitalizations have risen rapidly though. Particularly in London. Highest since last March. Just no where near the previous peak.

 

so omicron May be less serious for most, but maybe not for all and the sheer number of cases may cause large scale hospitalizations. 
 

a lot of maybe’s in the above,Englands suck it and see strategy will reveal very useful information for other countries.

[Cake Monster]

2 hours ago, fredscats said:

Not been reading news from France,Italy,UK then,numbers sky rocketing,and coming Thailand's way

France today 180 K positives.

If Thailand ever gets just 10 % of those numbers that need Hospital care, its going to be really bad for the Country

[Capella]

1 hour ago, wensiensheng said:

According to the bbc website, Uk hospitalizations have risen rapidly though. Particularly in London. Highest since last March. Just no where near the previous peak.

 

so omicron May be less serious for most, but maybe not for all and the sheer number of cases may cause large scale hospitalizations. 
 

a lot of maybe’s in the above,Englands suck it and see strategy will reveal very useful information for other countries.

As you say, hospitalisations are the only metric that really counts. Whilst the infection counts are through the roof, hospitalisations aren't out of control, even in African countries where Omicron started. This is encouraging news for all of us 

[Eric Loh]

3 hours ago, fredscats said:

Not been reading news from France,Italy,UK then,numbers sky rocketing,and coming Thailand's way

Unfortunate outcome of those freedom loving and vaccine hesistant minority putting the life of the entire country at risk.

 

[RubbaJohnny]

Surely we need more pharma expertise , more convicted drug dealers in power. If only TAT can assure millions of Hi-Sos who are not price sensitive that LOS is so much safer than safer, cleaner less hassle than their usual picks, Mustique, Martinique, Seychelles, Biarritz, Maui, costa Esmerelda, Marquesas, Aitutaki , Reunion, Bermuda, Bahamas and Caymans.

I'm sure such folk don't have professional advisors aware of the sleaze , nepotism , corruption in Land of Flip Flops

[digger70]

Yep for sure C19 isn't done yet .

How many More Variants are on the way after this Omicron ? 

[crazykopite]

Yet the Thai baht remains strong I wonder if they manipulate there currency if they do it’s going to come And bite them in the nether regions

[Knocker33]

On 12/28/2021 at 5:27 PM, WEBBYB808 said:

Its already happening!  All the bars and other things opened way too soon.  Two bars and a hotel on Soi 6 have had people test positive  for covid.  Ambulance,  picks them up, days after submitting  a test.  This will by far be the worst as far as spreading.  I been here since prior Feb 2020.  I seen the cycle to know its comong again.  Danger or deadly strain?  Thats still unknown.   But if it fills up hospitals how can people be treated for orher conditions?  Opened the bars too soon.  Covid is spreading in Issan, and as a catalyst everyone rushed back to sit at bars to be next to flesh.  Everyone wants boosters. And thats whats needed  now.  Lets hope they have enough. As it was short before.

Opening too soon . What do you recommend. Wait 10 years. Sick of all this doom and gloom get on with your life . Take off your tin hats and stop hiding under your beds