Are we just going to have to live with unvaccinated people across Thailand?

[Scott]

A post with false or misleading information and reply have been removed.

 

 

[heybruce]

8 hours ago, Saanim said:

How do you want me to identify the demonstrations? There are every weekend in Europe in many larger cities - as mentioned above -- there were also in Australia not so small. 

 

And currently, there is a big problem with truckers in Canada (about forced vaccination), gathering in Ottawa, followed somehow also in USA.  Probably, you will not get to see it in headlines of media you like to listen to.   

Most if not all of these demonstrations are about requirements for unvaccinated people to quarantine or restrictions that prevent unvaccinated people from entering places where Covid can spread easily.  These are restrictions designed to prevent the unvaccinated from spreading the disease. 

 

People choose to remain unvaccinated have to accept limits on behavior that can promote the spread of the disease.  That is not the same as being forced to be vaccinated.  Where are people demonstrating because they have a choice between vaccination and prison?

[heybruce]

6 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Have you got any figures on people who are not vaccinated but have recovered from a previous infection?Perhaps we should distinguish between the two instead of lumping them all together, after all those who have recovered from a previous infection and are "unvaccinated" have been shown to have better protection than vaccinated people with no previous infection.If people are being restricted from certain activities based purely on vaccination status and not on their protection status then that just doesn't make scientific sense to me.

 

FIGURE. Incident laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among immunologic cohorts defined by vaccination and previous diagnosis histories — California, May 30–November 13, 2021*^,†

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#contribAff

 

As I explained earlier, the "natural immunity is better" claim was demonstrated to be true only for the Delta variant surge.  It was not true for variants before Delta, has not been demonstrated for the Omicron surge, and has not been shown for vaccinated people with booster shots.

 

However I believe most places with restrictions for the unvaccinated make exceptions for people who can prove that they have had and recovered from Covid.  However claiming you've had Covid is not good enough, you must show medical proof.

[heybruce]

5 hours ago, ThLT said:

Regardless of what you say, or twist things around by using misleading ways of re-expressing the study results to fit your liking (ironically, similarly to what anti-vaxxers do), like the study results say:

- If being unvaccinated means 38% will get infected.

- And being vaccinated means 25% will get infected.

 

Yes, that's a 1.5x improvement. It's mathematically correct to say that.

 

However, that's still an awful performance of a vaccine for protecting against transmission/infection. And yes, a vaccine doesn't require to fully protect against transmission/infection... but it's still a fact that the current vaccines are awful for protecting against transmission/infection. 

But you'll probably conjure up some answer to say they're absolutely awesome at protecting against transmission/infection? Or pointlessly re-state that vaccines don't require to protect against transmission/infection, right?

 

Actually I was correcting you when you twisted the study results in an attempt to make vaccines appear less effective than they are.

 

Remember the study you are referring to?   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext

 

The 25% and 38% numbers come from a small Lancet study conducted over a limited time frame.  A much bigger study by the CDC shows unvaccinated people to be 14 times more likely to catch Covid and 53 times more likely to die from Covid as vaccinated people with booster shots.  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220131&instance_id=51759&nl=the-morning&regi_id=135884956&segment_id=81212&te=1&user_id=7ef4c302f3d7b72eda453d22c70af53e

 

Vaccination with booster is not perfect, but it improves your odds of staying healthy and surviving tremendously.  So yes, vaccines are absolutely awesome at protection. 

[ukrules]

5 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Furthermore, variants do not emerge in a linear way, and the two variants that are the most different from each other are Delta and Omicron

Indeed, Omicron appeared out of literally nowhere.

 

The investigation into the origin of Omicron will run for as long as it takes, if it takes decades then that's how long it takes - they will find it in the end.

 

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, heybruce said:

As I explained earlier, the "natural immunity is better" claim was demonstrated to be true only for the Delta variant surge.  It was not true for variants before Delta, has not been demonstrated for the Omicron surge, and has not been shown for vaccinated people with booster shots.

 

 

That subject of cross reactive T cell immunity from exposure/infection from other circulating coronaviruses is still being investigated .  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joim.13372

Edited February 5, 2022 by morrobay

[Gottfrid]

On 2/4/2022 at 3:39 AM, RandiRona said:

what you are suggesting is discrimination based on the choice people are making for their health and well being

What you are doing is forgetting that people that think like you just wrote above are on an ego trip. You post that it´s based peoples right of choice, for THEIR health and well being. You seem to totally forget that it will also directly affect others. Therefore you can not call it discrimination, out of the reason it is protection.

 

After that you have to look at the democracy we all want. In a democratic system, everyone does not get to choose. The majority gets to decide! In other words, the business owner will do the right thing to close for unvaxxed people, if they can not show a health reason from a doctor, that they can not take any shot out of health reason that risks their life.

 

Like you posted above, you just must have Mao´s little red book on the nighty table.

[Aussie999]

On 2/4/2022 at 4:50 PM, placeholder said:

But it is more contagious. For the sake of an example, if Omicron has only 50% the serious illness rate of say, Delta, but is twice as contagious, that will balance out to the same number of serious illnesses.

but it doesn't mean severe enough, to go to hospital, especially for the vaccinated, so let the virus run, the unvaccinated have made their choice, hospitalization, in Australia, it affects, mostly, those over 60, and not having the booster, others simple stay home, as they should, with the seasonal flu.

[Aussie999]

On 2/4/2022 at 6:42 PM, placeholder said:

What does this have to do with your claim that hospitals will be less stressed by Omicron than by Delta? 

Omicron Drives US Deaths Higher Than in Fall's Delta Wave

Omicron, the highly contagious coronavirus variant sweeping across the country, is driving the daily American death toll higher than was the case during last fall's delta wave, with deaths likely to keep rising for days or even weeks.

The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been climbing since mid-November, reaching 2,267 on Thursday and surpassing a September peak of 2,100 when delta was the dominant variant.

https://www.voanews.com/a/omicron-drives-us-deaths-higher-than-in-fall-s-delta-wave/6417795.html

Mate, you use the US, as an example, but you fail to understand, the US fully vaccinated rate is ONLY 64.3%.. as I have said MANY times, the unvaccinated have made their choice, I can't help if yanks choose NOT to get vaccinated, but the world is much bigger than the US, it high covid numbers, and hospitalization, is simply due to being stupid... fact, you will NOT stop the omicron wave, no matter what precautions, we are all going to get it.

 

[Aussie999]

30 minutes ago, Gottfrid said:

What you are doing is forgetting that people that think like you just wrote above are on an ego trip. You post that it´s based peoples right of choice, for THEIR health and well being. You seem to totally forget that it will also directly affect others. Therefore you can not call it discrimination, out of the reason it is protection.

 

After that you have to look at the democracy we all want. In a democratic system, everyone does not get to choose. The majority gets to decide! In other words, the business owner will do the right thing to close for unvaxxed people, if they can not show a health reason from a doctor, that they can not take any shot out of health reason that risks their life.

 

Like you posted above, you just must have Mao´s little red book on the nighty table.

What difference, to a business owner, does it make, if they have vaccinated, and unvaccinated, customers, remember, these same unvaccinated travel, on crowed buses, on crowded trains, etc... also fact, vaccinated people can also pass on the virus.

[Bkk Brian]

25 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

What difference, to a business owner, does it make, if they have vaccinated, and unvaccinated, customers, remember, these same unvaccinated travel, on crowed buses, on crowded trains, etc... also fact, vaccinated people can also pass on the virus.

The business owner can't control what goes on outside of his own premises but he can control what goes on inside. A private International school for instance can insist its teachers and pupils are vaccinated. A private hospital can insist on its staff being vaccinated, both of which are privately owned businesses.

Edited February 6, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[placeholder]

28 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

Mate, you use the US, as an example, but you fail to understand, the US fully vaccinated rate is ONLY 64.3%.. as I have said MANY times, the unvaccinated have made their choice, I can't help if yanks choose NOT to get vaccinated, but the world is much bigger than the US, it high covid numbers, and hospitalization, is simply due to being stupid... fact, you will NOT stop the omicron wave, no matter what precautions, we are all going to get it.

 

My correction to your original assertion was not about public policy or the situation in the US. I simply used the US as an example. It's about the fact that your reason was mathematically defective. Here's what you wrote and my reply to it. Why is this so difficult for you to understand?

How much stress is put on the hospitals system depends on 2 factors:

1) virulence of the variant

2) transmissiblity.

So, yes, Omicron is on average less severe. A lower percentage will become seriously ill or die. But on the other hand, it's far more transmissible. So more people will be infected.  Your formulation ignored the issue of transmissibility. You are still ignoring that issue. Not much I can do about that.

 

[ThLT]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

Actually I was correcting you when you twisted the study results in an attempt to make vaccines appear less effective than they are.

 

Remember the study you are referring to?   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext

Here is the conclusion of the Lancet study:

 

Quote

This study confirms that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of delta variant infection and also accelerates viral clearance in the context of the delta variant. However, this study unfortunately also highlights that the vaccine effect on reducing transmission is minimal in the context of delta variant circulation.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext

 

I've been saying for the past few pages that vaccines are effective at protecting health, but ineffective at reducing transmission—with you somehow repeatedly denying this is the case. Clearly, you're incorrect.

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[Bkk Brian]

13 hours ago, Saanim said:

And currently, there is a big problem with truckers in Canada (about forced vaccination), gathering in Ottawa, followed somehow also in USA.  Probably, you will not get to see it in headlines of media you like to listen to.   

Very sad when it gets to the stage that the health workers have to take measures to keep safe during these protests.

 

BREAKING: All hospital workers in Vancouver have received memos from their health authorities telling them to hide inside and avoid showing any signs they’re healthcare staff during an anti-vaxx/restriction convoy tomorrow.

 

Vancouver health authorities warn staff to shelter and hide medical credentials during anti-vaxx convoy

 

Vancouver’s two health authorities are urging health-care workers to take defensive measures to avoid clashes with a convoy of anti-vaccination and anti-restriction demonstrators heading toward the city on Saturday.

Memos obtained by CTV News and sent to staff of Vancouver Coastal Health and Providence Health hospitals on Friday afternoon make similar suggestions not to engage with the protestors and reminding them that British Columbia now has legislation protecting health-care facilities from being impacted by demonstrations.

 

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/vancouver-health-authorities-warn-staff-to-shelter-and-hide-medical-credentials-during-anti-vaxx-convoy-1.5769041

[ThLT]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

Vaccination with booster is not perfect, but it improves your odds of staying healthy and surviving tremendously.  So yes, vaccines are absolutely awesome at protection. 

Changing the point being discussed? Yes, vaccines are good at protecting health. I've said that multiple times. However, what we've been discussing—at least, what I've been discussing—is that they aren't effective at preventing transmission. Which even the director of the CDC, Rochelle Walensky, said herself a few weeks ago:

 

Quote

“Our vaccines are working exceptionally well. They continue to work well for Delta with regard to sever illness and death. They prevent it. But what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-vaccines-cant-prevent-transmission-anymore/ar-AASDndg

 

(But I guess you'll find a way to change the point being made, yet again, to avoid acknowledging what both the Lancet study and even the CDC confirms.)
 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[FarFlungFalang]

3 hours ago, heybruce said:

As I explained earlier, the "natural immunity is better" claim was demonstrated to be true only for the Delta variant surge.  It was not true for variants before Delta, has not been demonstrated for the Omicron surge, and has not been shown for vaccinated people with booster shots.

 

However I believe most places with restrictions for the unvaccinated make exceptions for people who can prove that they have had and recovered from Covid.  However claiming you've had Covid is not good enough, you must show medical proof.

It has been demonstrated that covid vaccines wane which is why boosters are recommended, therefore how do people know what each person's level of protection is?In some places a booster has been mandated for people to work in government employment and essential service jobs.In Australia there have been more deaths from Omicron in the past couple of months than the entire previous 2 years of the pandemic yet we see no lockdowns to protect the vulnerable so it's not only individuals that have no regard for the vulnerable but we now have governments showing the same disregard for protecting the vulnerable, why is that?In fact Australia is opening up more and more when the situation is at its most dire.Previously people's live were more important than the economy but that seems to have changed and people have to learn to live and die with covid!Vaccinated people are catching and spreading covid causing people to get sick and die so really vaccinated people should have similar restrictions put on them for the same reasons you state that unvaccinated people should have restrictions placed on them.Like vaccines the argument for vaccine mandates is waning and will eventually be replaced with common sense.Vaccines should be encouraged because they work (they prevent death and serious illness) they should not be mandated because they don't work (they don't stop infections and the spread of the virus) which is what is happening now. 

[Aussie999]

45 minutes ago, placeholder said:

My correction to your original assertion was not about public policy or the situation in the US. I simply used the US as an example. It's about the fact that your reason was mathematically defective. Here's what you wrote and my reply to it. Why is this so difficult for you to understand?

How much stress is put on the hospitals system depends on 2 factors:

1) virulence of the variant

2) transmissiblity.

So, yes, Omicron is on average less severe. A lower percentage will become seriously ill or die. But on the other hand, it's far more transmissible. So more people will be infected.  Your formulation ignored the issue of transmissibility. You are still ignoring that issue. Not much I can do about that.

 

and those with omicron can, in most cases, self isolate, at home. I did NOT ignore it's transmissibility, I never even hinted, at it... you assume far too much.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Aussie999 said:

and those with omicron can, in most cases, self isolate, at home. I did NOT ignore it's transmissibility, I never even hinted, at it... you assume far too much.

'I did NOT ignore it's transmissibility, I never even hinted, at it...'

I rest my case.

[Aussie999]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

'I did NOT ignore it's transmissibility, I never even hinted, at it...'

I rest my case.

this is a quote, from you "Your formulation ignored the issue of transmissibility."

[papa al]

On 2/4/2022 at 2:23 AM, webfact said:

What do you think is the correct route to take?

Drop all mandates

as recently done by Scandinavia. UK, Ireland, Switzerland,

&c.

[placeholder]

8 minutes ago, Aussie999 said:

this is a quote, from you "Your formulation ignored the issue of transmissibility."

To your way of thinking what is the significant difference between not mentioning transmissibility and ignoring it?

[Scott]

Inflammatory post with a graphic has been removed.

 

[Desmondo69]

No need for fear from unvaccinated if your already vaxxed surely..your safe..????

Edited February 6, 2022 by Desmondo69

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, ThLT said:

Here is the conclusion of the Lancet study:

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00690-3/fulltext

 

I've been saying for the past few pages that vaccines are effective at protecting health, but ineffective at reducing transmission—with you somehow repeatedly denying this is the case. Clearly, you're incorrect.

 

The Lancet study used a limited time frame and a limited study population to show that people who were directly exposed to a person infected with  Covid during the Delta surge had a 25% chance of infection if they are fully vaccinated and a 38% chance of infection if they are unvaccinated.  I disagree with the study conclusion that the significant reduction in infection rates shows vaccination as ineffective at reducing transmission, but agree with its conclusion:

 

"These results underpin the key message that vaccinated contacts are better protected than the unvaccinated. All breakthrough infections were mild, and no hospitalisations and deaths were observed."

 

The study does present a strong argument for continued vaccination, social distancing, masking, exclusion of the unvaccinated from environments where transmission is likely (bars, theaters, cruise ships, etc.) and all the things the anti-vaxxers are protesting against.  If your goal in presenting the study was to support an argument for vaccination, masking, and restrictions on activities of the infected and unvaccinated then we are in agreement. 

 

However I stand by my statement of the fact that, in this one, limited, dated study, the unvaccinated were one and a half times more likely to get infected.  This is a significant difference, especially when considering the exponential nature of infection transmission. A more current, larger CDC study shows the tremendous advantage of being vaccinated with a booster.   https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220131&instance_id=51759&nl=the-morning&regi_id=135884956&segment_id=81212&te=1&user_id=7ef4c302f3d7b72eda453d22c70af53e

 

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, ThLT said:

Changing the point being discussed? Yes, vaccines are good at protecting health. I've said that multiple times. However, what we've been discussing—at least, what I've been discussing—is that they aren't effective at preventing transmission. Which even the director of the CDC, Rochelle Walensky, said herself a few weeks ago:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-director-covid-vaccines-cant-prevent-transmission-anymore/ar-AASDndg

 

(But I guess you'll find a way to change the point being made, yet again, to avoid acknowledging what both the Lancet study and even the CDC confirms.)
 

Listen to the interview:  https://duckduckgo.com/?q=CDC+Director+Rochelle+Walensky+interview+wolf+blitzer&t=ffab&ia=videos&iax=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DTKFWGvvlVLI

 

She says that vaccinated people who have a break through infection can infect others.  I don't think anyone has ever disputed that.  She never said vaccinations don't reduce infections.

 

"So if you're going home to somebody who has not been vaccinated, somebody who can't get vaccinated... I would suggest you wear a mask in a public indoor setting," Walensky stated."

[ThLT]

24 minutes ago, heybruce said:

She says that vaccinated people who have a break through infection can infect others.

You have no point. ???? Every single case of a vaccinated person transmitting COVID will be due to a breakthrough infection. There can be no transmission from a vaccinated person without a breakthrough infection, by definition. To say the CDC director meant something else is... disingenuous and not valid. 

 

And, exactly, not only do vaccines not prevent transmission, like the CDC director says, but vaccines also don't effectively protect against getting infected, even if you're vaccinated (i.e. breakthrough infection). You're only strengthening my point. ????

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ThLT

[Saanim]

As per latest news Turkey president Erdogan and his wife tested positive for Omicron immediately after visiting Ukraine.  The source mentioned that Erdogan was vaccinated.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-05/turkish-president-erdogan-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

 

[Sparktrader]

On 2/4/2022 at 7:26 PM, TropicalGuy said:

Unvaxxed overloading hospitals . 97% of the Covid dead are unvaxxed.  Unvaxxed easily and seriously infecting other unvaxxed . less easily and less seriously infecting the vaxxed and recovered. 

ICU in aus has very little difference in numbers.

 

Hospitals are actually overloaded by obese and smokers. Do they ban junk food and smokes? No

 

The whole approach is very strange yet its not. Drug companies too much power.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

On 2/4/2022 at 7:26 PM, TropicalGuy said:

Unvaxxed overloading hospitals . 97% of the Covid dead are unvaxxed.  Unvaxxed easily and seriously infecting other unvaxxed . less easily and less seriously infecting the vaxxed and recovered. 

Most deaths occurred pre vaccine. So those stats are misleading.

[heybruce]

52 minutes ago, ThLT said:

You have no point. ???? Every single case of a vaccinated person transmitting COVID will be due to a breakthrough infection. There can be no transmission from a vaccinated person without a breakthrough infection, by definition. To say the CDC director meant something else is... disingenuous and not valid. 

 

And, exactly, not only do vaccines not prevent transmission, like the CDC director says, but vaccines also don't effectively protect against getting infected, even if you're vaccinated (i.e. breakthrough infection). You're only strengthening my point. ????

 

As has been repeatedly explained:  Vaccines greatly reduce infections.  They don't prevent all infections.  There are a small number of breakthrough infections.  People who have a breakthrough infection can infect others.  That is what Director Walensky said.  Did you listen to the interview so you could here her words in context?

 

It's not that difficult.  However if you are determined to prove the exception is the rule, I suggest you buy lottery tickets.  By your logic, since some people who buy lottery tickets get rich it must be a common thing.

Edited February 6, 2022 by heybruce