1 hour ago, Andrew Dwyer said:

Another price drop:

 

 

2 years ago i would have gone for this at this price and would have been satisfied I am sure.

Yea, I think so, as they are really nice, and well spec'd.

Gentlemen, in my opinion, despite the exceptional discounts we've been seeing lately, it MAY be worth waiting. The new batteries from BYD and CATL that are expected to be released soon could bring significant improvements and further cost reductions. The problem—or the advantage, depending on how you look at it—of electric cars is that we're in a period of continuous development and refinement, which brings both advantages and disadvantages, depending on how one views and manages the situation.

While a 20-year-old combustion engine car can still be relevant today, the same is unlikely for an electric car. It's a bit like with computers; when moving from mechanics to technology/informatics, the timelines change

8 hours ago, marino28 said:

Gentlemen, in my opinion, despite the exceptional discounts we've been seeing lately, it MAY be worth waiting. The new batteries from BYD and CATL that are expected to be released soon could bring significant improvements and further cost reductions. The problem—or the advantage, depending on how you look at it—of electric cars is that we're in a period of continuous development and refinement, which brings both advantages and disadvantages, depending on how one views and manages the situation.

While a 20-year-old combustion engine car can still be relevant today, the same is unlikely for an electric car. It's a bit like with computers; when moving from mechanics to technology/informatics, the timelines change

As long as we're getting 8-10 yrs or lifetime warranties, the tech advances & price depreciation really doesn't matter much.   Especially if only paying 700k or less.   You still have very usable vehicle if battery & motor life are even close to expectations, and in 8-10 yrs, they'll all be worth pocket change anyway.

 

And if you're buying one of the higher spec'd, higher end EV's, do you really care how much it will cost to replace, if you going to anyway.

 

If I'm still around in 6 more year, when warranty expires, or if they come out with a reasonably priced van or pick up, that I can turn into a camper, then I'll keep the present MG ZS for local, and maybe pick up a new toy for playing nomadic, self contained tourist playing.   I really do need a new project, hobby 

8 hours ago, marino28 said:

Gentlemen, in my opinion, despite the exceptional discounts we've been seeing lately, it MAY be worth waiting. The new batteries from BYD and CATL that are expected to be released soon could bring significant improvements and further cost reductions. The problem—or the advantage, depending on how you look at it—of electric cars is that we're in a period of continuous development and refinement, which brings both advantages and disadvantages, depending on how one views and manages the situation.

While a 20-year-old combustion engine car can still be relevant today, the same is unlikely for an electric car. It's a bit like with computers; when moving from mechanics to technology/informatics, the timelines change

 

All this is true, but life is short and if we keep putting off buying that EV while we wait for the better one to come along we will be missing out.

 

Back in 2019 I put down a deposit on a ฿1.2m 44.5kWh MG ZS EV, ultimately the deal fell through as they wouldn’t install the free wall charger for someone with solar. If I had waited until today I would have missed out on 5 years of EV ownership.

 

About a year a go a number of contributors to this discussion, including myself, were considering the BYD Seal. At the time I made a post about buyer’s remorse. Buying a car is as much an emotional as it is an intellectual decision and looking back I do not regret my decision to buy a BYD Seal AWD.

 

I had a clear shopping list for a car at the time

 

1) Price ideally under ฿1.5m 

2) V2L

3) LFP batteries over 70kWh

4) Dealership support close by

5) A big name company that was unlikely to go bust in a few years

6) Wife approval (happy wife, happy life)  - I am fortunate that my wife is also into EVs and is often my source of the latest Thai EV news

 

Then I wanted a test drive 

 

I have enjoyed driving my Seal and it still puts a smile on my face. Will there be a better car coming along soon? Of course, but I intend to keep my seal for a few more years yet and by then EVs will be even better.

 

 

9 hours ago, marino28 said:

Gentlemen, in my opinion, despite the exceptional discounts we've been seeing lately, it MAY be worth waiting. The new batteries from BYD and CATL that are expected to be released soon could bring significant improvements and further cost reductions. The problem—or the advantage, depending on how you look at it—of electric cars is that we're in a period of continuous development and refinement, which brings both advantages and disadvantages, depending on how one views and manages the situation.

While a 20-year-old combustion engine car can still be relevant today, the same is unlikely for an electric car. It's a bit like with computers; when moving from mechanics to technology/informatics, the timelines change

 

thanks for your comment, i can see where you're coming from. but, i only partly agree with your statement.

 

battery technology will continue to improve every year, because there's still a lot of potential. however, for ev owners who drive 50-100 km daily and typically charge overnight at home, these advancements won't make much of a difference. for this large group of ev owners, the current battery technology will remain sufficient even 20 years from now.

 

technology and software will also improve, today’s ev's do receive alredy relevant software updates. processors and other components may be upgraded or replaced if ever (?) needed . in my opinion, autonomous driving won’t become a realistic topic in thailand anytime soon ... 

 

the fundamental technology of today’s ev's will, in my view, still be enough 20 years from now to drive safely and comfortably from A to B. of course, there will be more refined and advanced ev's in the future, especially due to the rapid production pace of new models coming from china (with which established car manufacturers do struggle to keep up)!

 

if someone is waiting for ev technology to improve by 50 to 100 percent, they will likely have to wait about 10 years or even longer. as for the prices of these more advanced ev's, it's difficult to predict at this point ...

 

i feel that now and next year will be a great time to switch to an electric car ... drive safe!

 

 

 

On 8/5/2024 at 9:16 PM, Pib said:

DLT registration stats are out for July.  1st snapshot below is the DLT summary line for the R.Y.1 category (ie.., passenger vehicles carrying no more that 7 people).  At total of 40,817 vehicles were registered of which 5,468 were BEV (100% electric) which equates to 13.4% of the total.  

 

For a comparison to the previous month (i.e., Jun) a total of 43,147 R.Y.1 category vehicles registered with 5,657 of them being BEV which equates to 13.1%.   

 

June to July showed a further slump in regristrations probably due to a challenging economy, tighter loan requirements, people gunshy to buy with the ongoing price-cutting, etc.  

 

For July

 

For the previous month (June)

 

 

 

 

 

As FYI, the latest DLT registrations stats for August are out on the DLT website.  The DLT completely redid how they display the stats in their spreadsheet....less detail.   But if I sorted and summed correctly for the "RY1" category only (i.e., passenger vehicles of no more than 7 passengers) a total of 39,444 of all RY1 fuel types (i.e., petrol, diesel, electric, CNG, etc) were registered for August with 6,202  (15.7%) of those being fully electric.

 

I expect autolife will soon come out with some stats but recently they have been adding in some fully electric from a couple other category other than RY1 so I fully expect their numbers will be a little different.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Pib said:

 

 

As FYI, the latest DLT registrations stats for August are out on the DLT website.  The DLT completely redid how they display the stats in their spreadsheet....less detail.   But if I sorted and summed correctly for the "RY1" category only (i.e., passenger vehicles of no more than 7 passengers) a total of 39,444 of all RY1 fuel types (i.e., petrol, diesel, electric, CNG, etc) were registered for August with 6,202  (15.7%) of those being fully electric.

 

I expect autolife will soon come out with some stats but recently they have been adding in some fully electric from a couple other category other than RY1 so I fully expect their numbers will be a little different.

 

 

that is great news, and it doesn’t surprise me one bit.

8 hours ago, Pib said:

 

 

As FYI, the latest DLT registrations stats for August are out on the DLT website.  The DLT completely redid how they display the stats in their spreadsheet....less detail.   But if I sorted and summed correctly for the "RY1" category only (i.e., passenger vehicles of no more than 7 passengers) a total of 39,444 of all RY1 fuel types (i.e., petrol, diesel, electric, CNG, etc) were registered for August with 6,202  (15.7%) of those being fully electric.

 

I expect autolife will soon come out with some stats but recently they have been adding in some fully electric from a couple other category other than RY1 so I fully expect their numbers will be a little different.

 

 

@Pib, sure is difficult to navigate DLTs numbers.

The attached list is showing slightly different numbers from yours. Where did you get the total RY1 number from?

Maybe @vinny41 can chip in as to what numbers we should use for the chart.

 

11 hours ago, Pib said:

(15.7%) of those being fully electric

 

“EV sales are collapsing. Hybrids is what everyone is buying now”

 

🤔

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

@Pib, sure is difficult to navigate DLTs numbers.

The attached list is showing slightly different numbers from yours. Where did you get the total RY1 number from?

Maybe @vinny41 can chip in as to what numbers we should use for the chart.

 

@ExpatOilWorker

 

I get the same numbers as you RY1 41,433 for August 2024 and  6,211 for EV's 

Market share is 14.99% 

Looking at autolife figures for 2023 year on year August 2023 EV figures were  6,611

So the industry predictions seem to be correct that 2024 number of EV sold will be less than 2023

Just now, vinny41 said:

@ExpatOilWorker

 

I get the same numbers as you RY1 41,433 for August 2024 and  6,211 for EV's 

Market share is 14.99% 

Looking at autolife figures for 2023 year on year August 2023 EV figures were  6,611

So the industry predictions seem to be correct that 2024 number of EV sold will be less than 2023

 

And even less ICE will be sold than 2023

 

Growth in EV sales is seriously affecting ICE dealers now.

4 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

“EV sales are collapsing. Hybrids is what everyone is buying now”

 

🤔

You are correct number of Hybrid's registered in August 2024 were 10,915

On 9/3/2024 at 7:34 AM, Bandersnatch said:

had a clear shopping list for a car at the time

 

1) Price ideally under ฿1.5m 

2) V2L

3) LFP batteries over 70kWh

4) Dealership support close by

5) A big name company that was unlikely to go bust in a few years

Based on the many comments I see, most people see Chinese EV companies as startups with a slim chance of survival.

As usual, most of the opinions are not based on data

 

In July BYD was the third best selling brand in the world and the rate that VW are closing down factories, they will soon be #2

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

“EV sales are collapsing. Hybrids is what everyone is buying now”

 

🤔

 

5 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

You are correct number of Hybrid's registered in August 2024 were 10,915

 

 

Firstly, EV sales are not collapsing, they are accelerating.

 

Secondly, not "everyone" is buying hybrids.  Hybrids are ICE+ and that + is nothing more than a gimmick unless it's a PHEV.

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

And even less ICE will be sold than 2023

 

Growth in EV sales is seriously affecting ICE dealers now.

If that is correct we would be seeing serious price reductions across all ICE brands trying to reduce their oversupply of stock 

but the only serious price reductions are from EV brands

Its all down to supply and demand

Little demand either reduce production or reduce price

if demand exceeds production no need to reduce price

2 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

 

Firstly, EV sales are not collapsing, they are accelerating.

 

Secondly, not "everyone" is buying hybrids.  Hybrids are ICE+ and that + is nothing more than a gimmick unless it's a PHEV.

 

Agreed

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

If that is correct we would be seeing serious price reductions across all ICE brands trying to reduce their oversupply of stock 

but the only serious price reductions are from EV brands

Its all down to supply and demand

Little demand either reduce production or reduce price

if demand exceeds production no need to reduce price

 

You're missing the glaringly obvious.....

 

1.  we would be seeing serious price reductions across all ICE brands trying to reduce their oversupply of stock 

 

or

 

2. we would see ICE factories start to shut down and ICE manufacturers move out of Thailand

 

and

 

3. ICE dealers will be hurting as they lose sales to EV's.

 

Actually, we have seen all 3.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

Based on the many comments I see, most people see Chinese EV companies as startups with a slim chance of survival.

As usual, most of the opinions are not based on data

 

In July BYD was the third best selling brand in the world and the rate that VW are closing down factories, they will soon be #2

 

 

 

However, the picture regarding sales for the year so far was significantly different. Despite its strong showing in July, BYD only managed to clinch eighth place from January to July, based on sales of 1,714,100. Sales for Geely were significantly lower, at 577,700, with the brand managing eighteenth place overall. Once again, Toyota and Volkswagen were in first and second place, respectively, but Honda came in third for the year so far.

https://carnewschina.com/2024/09/04/byd-was-third-best-selling-brand-in-the-world-in-july-this-year/

 

 

July around 1 in 7 new vehicles was an EV

 

August around 1 in 6 new vehicles was an EV.

 

Vinny, just admit it.  EV's are growing anything with an ICE in it is declining.

 

What new information do you have about why the trend for the last 7 months should reverse?

 

Alien invasion? all EV's catching fire overnight?  the pink tooth fairy declaring them haram?

 

I know you don't like it, BUT it is happening.

4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

You're missing the glaringly obvious.....

 

1.  we would be seeing serious price reductions across all ICE brands trying to reduce their oversupply of stock 

 

or

 

2. we would see ICE factories start to shut down and ICE manufacturers move out of Thailand

 

and

 

3. ICE dealers will be hurting as they lose sales to EV's.

 

Actually, we have seen all 3.

 

 

look forward to you providing backup evidence of serious price reductions across all ICE brands  trying to reduce their oversupply of stock I haven't seen any evidence to support such a claim

as for ICE brands closing their factories that happens all the time when the Brand feels the factory is surplus to requirements it happen to Honda Swindon factory when the EU and Japan agreed a FTA deal 

1 minute ago, vinny41 said:

look forward to you providing backup evidence of serious price reductions across all ICE brands  trying to reduce their oversupply of stock I haven't seen any evidence to support such a claim

as for ICE brands closing their factories that happens all the time when the Brand feels the factory is surplus to requirements it happen to Honda Swindon factory when the EU and Japan agreed a FTA deal 

 

Agreed, not all, but some.

 

Suzuki & Mercedes.

 

I got an email from Ford last week about the Ranger Raptor with a "secret" price reduction to previous Ranger buyers and to come into the store to discuss.

 

 

8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

July around 1 in 7 new vehicles was an EV

 

August around 1 in 6 new vehicles was an EV.

 

Vinny, just admit it.  EV's are growing anything with an ICE in it is declining.

 

What new information do you have about why the trend for the last 7 months should reverse?

 

Alien invasion? all EV's catching fire overnight?  the pink tooth fairy declaring them haram?

 

I know you don't like it, BUT it is happening.

As previosly explained before EV's ICE had 100% market share so you only need to sell one EV and the statement that ICE is losing market share would be correct

I recently looked at a BYD Sealion, beautiful car, only Bht 1,040,000. A finance paper showed that with a 25% deposit of 260k, the interest rate would be 1.98% PER YEAR for 4 years, = plus 7.92%, leaving 780k to be paid at 17535 per month. Correct.

Asking at a Honda dealer for a Wave i125 for my Mrs costing 60,000, they said 2% interest PER MONTH = 24% per year = 96% over 4 years.

Payment of around Bht 1200 per month.

Who's fooling who please.

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

As previosly explained before EV's ICE had 100% market share so you only need to sell one EV and the statement that ICE is losing market share would be correct

 

Then 2 the next month, then 3 the next month, then 4 ad infinitum.

 

Guess what, it's not 1 or 2 it's thousands and thousands. More every month.

27 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

 

Hey .... y'all forgot MG  

 

25 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

I recently looked at a BYD Sealion, beautiful car, only Bht 1,040,000. A finance paper showed that with a 25% deposit of 260k, the interest rate would be 1.98% PER YEAR for 4 years, = plus 7.92%, leaving 780k to be paid at 17535 per month. Correct.

 

your calculation is correct, except the "real" interest rate is 3.786% ...

 

I can always spot ExpatOilWorker arriving on a thread, I get laughing emoji's all over my posts.

 

 

43 minutes ago, motdaeng said:

 

your calculation is correct, except the "real" interest rate is 3.786% ...

 

Thanks. Yes this is because they add on the full 7.92 interest at the start, not taking into account the instalments you have already paid.

780000 + 7.92% = 841.776  divided by 48 = 17,357.

13 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

I can always spot ExpatOilWorker arriving on a thread, I get laughing emoji's all over my posts.

 

it's not just you; he does that with other members too ... (i get it also ...)

 

it seems, expatoilworker still hasn't found a new hobby involving

his favorite subjects: fire and explosions ... 

4 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

@Pib, sure is difficult to navigate DLTs numbers.

The attached list is showing slightly different numbers from yours. Where did you get the total RY1 number from?

Maybe @vinny41 can chip in as to what numbers we should use for the chart.

 

 

Mine was from a different DLT spreadsheet that had tens of thousands of spreadsheet rows along with pull down menus a person can select to pick certain vehicle categories, months, etc.    As I said earlier "...if I summed and sorted correctly..." maybe I didn't...maybe various spreadsheets from the DLT website will give slightly different results....and as you said the DLT stats are difficult to navigate.    Go with the numbers from your snapshot above since DLT did that summary sheet.