Can someone please explain the falling baht/sterling exchange rate in simple language?

[cliveshep]

Can someone explain why media outlets like Bangkok Post insist the baht is weakening when week on week it's exchange rate against the UK pound is going down. Surely the GBP isn't weakening too? The rate has been pathetic ever since Covid arrived, for one brief moment a year ago it touched 46 baht - £1, but now is continually slipping to 42,6 baht - £1 this morning.

 

Given Thailand repeatedly borrows money to stay afloat, owes trillions, has no appreciable tourism industry any more, doesn't seem to export much according again to Bangkok Post and is pouring money into arms and diesel caps how is this possible? Even Boris Johnson's shenanigans hardly cause the £ to slip surely.

 

What apart from a global recession and Putin's insane murderous land-grab is going on? The rate was falling before Putin, fell with a thump after Carnage Carney the then Canadian Governor of the BoE repeatedly told everyone is was a sh*t currency - they should have locked him up as he jumped on the anti-Brexit bandwagon.

 

So in simple words - are we expecting further widening of the gap in the baht's favour?

[Andrew Dwyer]

I would say the U.K. economy is on a downward slide and the uncertainty of how far it will go is causing further weakening of the £. They have been quoting a rising inflation rate for a while and The Bank of England ( not always famous for their accuracy I know) is quoting 10% before the end of the year, falling back to 2% in two years time.

News like this is enough to cause changes to foreign currency exchange rates.

[BritManToo]

  On 5/11/2022 at 12:07 AM, cliveshep said:

Can someone explain why media outlets like Bangkok Post insist the baht is weakening when week on week it's exchange rate against the UK pound is going down.

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Weakening against the US$ .....

So in the past year 'they' allegedly used 16.5Billion dollars in foreign reserves to support the Thai Baht causing it to rise against the UKP. 

[userabcd]

Who knows. But one thing is sure nobody can predict where it is going, up or down, and there is nothing any foreigner remitting money to Thailand can do about it.

[cdemundo]

  On 5/11/2022 at 12:15 AM, Andrew Dwyer said:

I would say the U.K. economy is on a downward slide and the uncertainty of how far it will go is causing further weakening of the £. They have been quoting a rising inflation rate for a while and The Bank of England ( not always famous for their accuracy I know) is quoting 10% before the end of the year, falling back to 2% in two years time.

News like this is enough to cause changes to foreign currency exchange rates.

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10% inflation!!!  Yikes that is bad news.  That is disastrous isn't it?

[Kenny202]

I don't pretend to know anything about world economies but I did read the average household debt here is set to rise to over 90% of GDP! If I am reading that correctly means every household on Thailand on average owes 90% of what they earn. That is crazy! I remember finding that unbelievable when it was in the 60's. I believe a few Thai banks here have been downgraded lately also.

 

I mean you know how Thais are repaying loans, not to mention the state of many businesses here. We live in a major north Eastern city and it seems to be only really starting to feel the effects of this whole Covid fiasco now. Businesses shutting down everywhere and its clear no one has any money. The banks must a lot more exposed than what is being reported.

 

Other than that inflation is increasing rapidly....I believe much more than what is being reported, and it was on the rise well before covid. I always assumed a very stable / low inflation rate was one of Thailand's strengths. Wages never seemed to go up nor did the prices of basic stuff. Have a look at things now like eggs, pork and chicken? Domestically grown stuff. Cooking oil etc. Some of these things (Eggs) have gone up more than 30% in a couple of years. Has chicken food got more expensive or is it because production and retail side of these sort of basic domestic products been monopolized and both owned by the same company? How this was ever allowed to occur is beyond me. Funny foreign goods here seem to be stable or reducing. Ones I buy anyway. You only have to look at your monthly shopping bill. Everything seems to go up a few baht per month...put it all together and it is substantial. On top of that electricity and now with the Ukraine debacle fuel and cooking oil. Fuel prices will be just another excuse for our favorite monopoly's in Thailand to increase prices even more. I can hear them singing...1 for you, and three for me ???? 

 

As someone else mentioned falling exports....major manufacturers (Vehicles etc) seem to be leaving for greener pastures. Tourism dead in the water.

 

But oh yes, huge reserves of Gold and US$ to offset all the issues. But what does this mean? Everyone is broke and in debt and struggling to make ends meet but a select few have hoards of $$$ and gold stashed away? Not even sure that applies anymore as I think Thailand's balance of trade in the negative now last 6 months.

 

I am sure Thailand isn't the only country in the world experiencing many of these issues but a lot of the current issues in Thailand were problematic before Covid. Tourism was certainly on the wane, manufacturers relocating as much as inflation was already on the rise.

[Sparktrader]

Baht is propped up by Thailand. Western govs dont do it much as it helps exporters. Plus millions of Thais send money back monthly.

[LarrySR]

US dollar = 34.66Bt. 

Well, that wipes out the inflation worries for US expats that bring in dollars for expenses.

[daveAustin]

Yes baht is held up while US ‘prints’ trillions. The pound has just been garbage for years and the negative economic news over last few days has made things worse. 

[Kinnock]

Currency value is not directly related to economic performance of a country.  Also, a falling currency can, sometimes, help to drive an economy.

 

The UK is one of the few true democracies left in the world, which means a comparatively weak government that has to, (to some extent), look after it's people.  So lots of money is 'wasted' on social measures and high wages.  The UK is also impacted by popularist measures such as Brexit and support for Ukraine.  All these issues impact on the value of the currency.  

 

The Thai Government is not worried about being popular, increasingly has a 'slave' workforce indebted and subdued, is actively protecting the value of their own THB wealth even if this is not good for their own population, and is staying out of international conflicts, so the currency is stronger.

 

[RichardColeman]

  On 5/11/2022 at 12:15 AM, BritManToo said:

So in the past year 'they' allegedly used 16.5Billion dollars in foreign reserves to support the Thai Baht causing it to rise against the UKP. 

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How much left in the kitty until that's not possible ? Think that would help. Gonna be money wasted soon

[Farmerslife]

• U.K. exports for 2020 was $741.01B, a 15.77% decline from 2019.

• U.K. exports for 2019 was $879.80B, a 0.33% decline from 2018.

• U.K. exports for 2018 was $882.69B, a 10.11% increase from 2017.

 

The brexit dividend.

[Whale]

Inflation caused by money printing. The US, UK and EU have printed masses of money and thats causing inflation and a probable recession looming. 

 

The weird one is that the US market is so large that the fear of inflation/recession is causing a run TO the dollar away from stocks, futures, etc. A massive run at the moment, and thats causing the dollar to strengthen massively while markets crash. This is of course counter intuitive because inflation weakens the spending power of the dollar at home. 

 

The baht is actually weakening and has been for some time BUT I personally expect that to change rapidly once the US announces a peak is reached in inflation because the money will then run from the dollar to other holdings. Tonight is CPI day in the US, watch for big changes in the dollar depending if thats above or below 8.1%.

 

One could argue that baht currency movements are not as direct result of whatever Thailand does but what other currencies do.

 

 

[userabcd]

  On 5/11/2022 at 1:22 AM, LarrySR said:

US dollar = 34.66Bt. 

Well, that wipes out the inflation worries for US expats that bring in dollars for expenses.

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But the inflation is still there, still paying more for things.

[RmcaIssan]

Simple ...£ down on the $ ..dawn on the bt.

£ - $1.32 ...46bt

£ - $1.24 - 42.5bt (now)

Bt tracks the dollar, for 1 reason I think, to reduce impact of high oil costs ..

 

[1FinickyOne]

  On 5/11/2022 at 12:07 AM, cliveshep said:

a year ago it touched 46 baht - £1, but now is continually slipping to 42,6 baht - £1 this morning.

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which was up from 38 a few years ago but down from 75 many many years ago...

 

So, you might take from that an image of a rollercoaster of which you have no control and can't get off... 

 

 

[KhunLA]

  On 5/11/2022 at 3:15 AM, userabcd said:

But the inflation is still there, still paying more for things.

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Exchange rate for Yanks, up 13+ % since biden took office (mid Feb 2021), + 5.9 % SS COLA, for a 19 % income edge against the inflation. ????  Better than going backward, with no rate change and no COLA.

[userabcd]

  On 5/11/2022 at 3:50 AM, KhunLA said:

Exchange rate for Yanks, up 13+ % since biden took office (mid Feb 2021), + 5.9 % SS COLA, for a 19 % income edge against the inflation. ????  Better than going backward, with no rate change and no COLA.

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Yes, the US looks after its citizens.

[userabcd]

  On 5/11/2022 at 3:30 AM, 1FinickyOne said:

which was up from 38 a few years ago but down from 75 many many years ago...

 

So, you might take from that an image of a rollercoaster of which you have no control and can't get off... 

 

 

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Rollercoaster

 

[The Hammer2021]

The GB pound is weakening dramatically

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/10/weak-pound-could-add-to-uk-inflation-say-economists

[The Hammer2021]

  On 5/11/2022 at 4:36 AM, userabcd said:

Yes, the US looks after its citizens.

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LOL

[The Hammer2021]

The pound will probably  decline further so it might be a good idea to  buy Dollars and euro now to take advantage  of a lower  future  baht.

[BritManToo]

  On 5/11/2022 at 4:45 AM, The Hammer2021 said:

The pound will probably  decline further so it might be a good idea to  buy Dollars and euro now to take advantage  of a lower  future  baht.

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I don't see why?

Looks to me like all the western countries are producing nothing.

Printing money, power distribution & economies failing and living on credit.

The Euro countries seem to be in the worst state of all, propping up the PIGS.

 

I'm just hoping to be dead before TSHTF and TEOTWAWKI happens.

[The Hammer2021]

  On 5/11/2022 at 4:49 AM, BritManToo said:

I don't see why?

Looks to me like all the western countries are producing nothing.

Printing money, power distribution & economies failing and living on credit.

The Euro countries seem to be in the worst state of all, propping up the PIGS.

 

I'm just hoping to be dead before TSHTF and TEOTWAWKI happens.

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The article link is quite persuasive regarding the recent  history  of sterling and its decline. It is likely it will lose more value than the dollar so now is probably  a good time to buy dollars before the dollar  rises  further. If it or the Euro doesn't rise so what?  Currently  the users of BPS are not benefiting from the baht  decline switching  to other currencies might enable  them to do so

[1FinickyOne]

  On 5/11/2022 at 4:49 AM, BritManToo said:

I'm just hoping to be dead before TSHTF and TEOTWAWKI happens

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Too late... 

 

TBO TEOTWAWKI has already begun... as has WW3 - - 

 

When they run out of chicken parma, then i'm checking out.

[1FinickyOne]

  On 5/11/2022 at 4:40 AM, userabcd said:

Rollercoaster

 

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it went down down down and the flames rose higher

and it burns burns burns, the ring of fire... the ring of fire.. 

[1FinickyOne]

  On 5/11/2022 at 3:50 AM, KhunLA said:

Exchange rate for Yanks, up 13+ % since biden took office (mid Feb 2021), + 5.9 % SS COLA, for a 19 % income edge against the inflation. ????  Better than going backward, with no rate change and no COLA.

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a boon to my doggle... 

[spidermike007]

  On 5/11/2022 at 12:45 AM, cdemundo said:

10% inflation!!!  Yikes that is bad news.  That is disastrous isn't it?

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That is close to what they are admitting to. I think it is closer to 20% in Europe and the US. Been back twice recently, and the price hikes are ridiculous. 

[BritManToo]

  On 5/11/2022 at 6:39 AM, spidermike007 said:

That is close to what they are admitting to. I think it is closer to 20% in Europe and the US. Been back twice recently, and the price hikes are ridiculous. 

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Bars of chocolate are still 3 for a pound in the UK.

Here they're 27bht (70p) each and not as nice.

[Whale]

  On 5/12/2022 at 1:34 AM, BritManToo said:

Bars of chocolate are still 3 for a pound in the UK.

Here they're 27bht (70p) each and not as nice.

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Don't you just hate supermarkets like Tops when. they sell UK boxed stuff at say 300 baht and on the box in English it says 3 for a pound? I do, drives me nuts.