Crypto Crashes

[FritsSikkink]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Yesterday, I walked into tesco and bought eggs amongst other things. I paid with my crypto. Com card and got 3% crypto back. My salary is sent to krung thai bank and withdrawn almost immediately to dexes. At the weekend I also paid for 4 dtac bills, got a full tank of petrol and a game of golf, all paid in BTC I bought last Monday, pay day. 

It is illegal to pay with crypto in Thailand.

[Adumbration]

2 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

Here's something else I don't get...

 

I keep hearing about DYOR, and being dismissed as someone who "hasn't done his research."

 

What research is there to do? There aren't any fundamentals to research. No earnings, no P/E ratios, no ROE, etc. All I ever see are guys obsessing over technical charts, plotting support and resistance levels, speculating about future valuations. I only see scant attention being paid to the main factors which could seriously cause the price to swing wildly: regulation, interest rates, inflation, economic downturns. I'm curious to know what research people claim to be doing besides hanging out on crypto investment forums and watching U-tube videos. Are you seriously trying to tell me that some guy in Mukdahan fiddling around on an Oppo smart phone knew the risks he was taking putting his money in an algorithmic stablecoin?

 

Risk management is far more valuable than research.  This applys to all asset classes.  Most of the information available to the retail market is outdated at best.

[FritsSikkink]

3 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Oh dear, he thinks buying land, which probably isn't even in his name is not risky. 

My wife's land for my kids, i have enough money for myself. My wife makes more money than i do. I am not thinking it, we have it for years already. Revenue is over 9 million per year.

[FritsSikkink]

3 hours ago, BritManToo said:

if crypto is making you so much money, why are you always asking advice on how to get a loan?

 

That's what I find comical!

If i remember right he was asking how to default on his mortgage 

[FritsSikkink]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

I bought Solana yesterday at $47.5. It's a steal at this price. 

 

Also, staking it, paired with USDC, for 104% pa.

 

EGLD is another great bargain. 

How much did you buy? 50 usd?

[Walker88]

 

18 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Risk management is far more valuable than research.  This applys to all asset classes.  Most of the information available to the retail market is outdated at best.

How is some little retail guy going to do proper risk management? (I use that term to define anybody holding less than $1-2 million of a position.)

 

Michael Saylor pledged a good portion of his firm's btc holdings as collateral for loans to speculate in other ethereal dreamcoins.  That is known.

 

What is not known is how much of the rest of the btc float is pledged as collateral for loans for other large holders to speculate in other dreamcoins? Also, are there any Knockout options in the market?  Since these would be private ISDA positions, nobody knows.

 

If it turns out a large % of btc is pledged, and things begin to break, the market will gap lower, so somebody who thinks the have a stop at, say $27,000, might see the first print at $15,000, never having traded at $27K. Just because someone has a stop, if bids evaporate, the stop is meaningless and is executed at best bid.

[JeffersLos]

47 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

You are

pointing out that investments on Thai land can turn to zero in the blink of a somchai.

[FritsSikkink]

1 minute ago, JeffersLos said:

pointing out that investments on Thai land can turn to zero in the blink of a somchai.

Land will always hold value, you are talking nonsense.

[Adumbration]

7 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

 

How is some little retail guy going to do proper risk management? (I use that term to define anybody holding less than $1-2 million of a position.)

 

Michael Saylor pledged a good portion of his firm's btc holdings as collateral for loans to speculate in other ethereal dreamcoins.  That is known.

 

What is not known is how much of the rest of the btc float is pledged as collateral for loans for other large holders to speculate in other dreamcoins? Also, are there any Knockout options in the market?  Since these would be private ISDA positions, nobody knows.

 

If it turns out a large % of btc is pledged, and things begin to break, the market will gap lower, so somebody who thinks the have a stop at, say $27,000, might see the first print at $15,000, never having traded at $27K. Just because someone has a stop, if bids evaporate, the stop is meaningless and is executed at best bid.

Sigh...I mention risk management and you assume I am referring to stop loss.

[KhunLA]

Someone posts, they used crypto to pay at Lotus, but that's banned in Thailand .... hmm

 

Bought Soluna for $47 ... great price.   Good luck selling as soon to be worthless if can't use, if not already.  

 

I guess that explains why BTC is crashing, and crashing fast & hard.  Banned in TH,

and Europe, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Malaysia.   

 

BkkPost site or any other for news-blips

[The Hammer2021]

34 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

My wife's land for my kids, i have enough money for myself. My wife makes more money than i do. I am not thinking it, we have it for years already. Revenue is over 9 million per year.

Sure

[Adumbration]

Just now, FritsSikkink said:

Land will always hold value, you are talking nonsense.

Tell that to the Australians that are about to lose 15% plus on the value of their properties as interest rates move from 0 to 2% in the coming year.

[FritsSikkink]

1 minute ago, Adumbration said:

Tell that to the Australians that are about to lose 15% plus on the value of their properties as interest rates move from 0 to 2% in the coming year.

Are you saying their land has no value?

[FritsSikkink]

3 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

Sure

I don't care what you believe, i am living the good life.

[ThailandRyan]

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Someone posts, they used crypto to pay at Lotus, but that's banned in Thailand .... hmm

 

Bought Soluna for $47 ... great price.   Good luck selling as soon to be worthless if can't use, if not already.  

 

I guess that explains why BTC is crashing, and crashing fast & hard.  Banned in TH,

and Europe, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Malaysia.   

 

BkkPost site or any other for news-blips

It is a visa style card that many use, and is paid to the seller of goods in local currency while charging the card holder from their own cryptocurrency account balance, but earning rewards for its use, at least his does.  The card can be used almost everywhere.  My coinbase card is very similar but does not pay out the rewards as his does.

Coinbase Card

Edited May 16, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[JeffersLos]

5 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

Land will always hold value

Yes. 

 

Land office scams, family scams, fake signatures, lost as collateral behind the owner's back. Super risky, and certainly not a safe investment for future half-Thai generations. ????

 

It will have value, just not for the people that lost it.

 

For them it turned to zero. 

[FritsSikkink]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is a visa style card that many use, and is paid to the seller of goods in local currency while charging the card holder from their own cryptocurrency account balance, but earning rewards for its use, at least his does.  The card can be used almost everywhere.  My coinbase card is very similar but does not pay out the rewards as his does.

Coinbase Card

These cards are not legal in Thailand anymore as crypto can only be used for investment. Matter of time before they are withdrawn.

[FritsSikkink]

3 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

Yes. 

 

Land office scams, family scams, fake signatures, lost as collateral behind the owner's back. Super risky, and certainly not a safe investment for future half-Thai generations. ????

 

It will have value, just not for the people that lost it.

 

For them it turned to zero. 

No sense talking with you any further.

[Hummin]

4 hours ago, Neeranam said:

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Hummin

[Gecko123]

55 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Risk management is far more valuable than research.  This applys to all asset classes.  Most of the information available to the retail market is outdated at best.

I think there may be some miscommunication. Crypto bulls routinely claim that anybody's skepticism about crypto stems from a lack of understanding about the technology, a knee jerk rejection of the technology because they are too set in their ways to research what crypto is all about. I was pointing out that most of what I've seen on line has been technical analysis of price movement with little attention paid to underlying fundamentals.

 

It's very difficult for me to understand why you are talking about risk management considering it is almost impossible to put a fair valuation on a crypto currency. Your comment that most of the information available to retail investors is outdated only underscores my contention that crypto bulls claiming to have thoroughly researched the crypto space and to understand the risks involved may be overly confident.

 

I think the intro and first 7+ minute segment on the below video do a good job of explaining the skepticism behind crypto valuations.

 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Gecko123

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

These cards are not legal in Thailand anymore as crypto can only be used for investment. Matter of time before they are withdrawn.

However, until they are withdrawn as you say, they still work for buying items now don't they.

[Hummin]

@Neeranam

 

Still buying land in Thailand can be a good investment for future, but I do not reckon my payment for land as my assets and part of my retirement investment. That will be a bonus for later in life for both of us if it works out with us. 

 

And of course for his kids it is a good investment. 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, FritsSikkink said:

No sense talking with you any further.

But he is correct in a certain way now isn't he? Not nonsense really.  I lost my investment, the money I paid for the property purchased and house I built on it due to a divorce.  Instead of selling it to regain 50%, whatever amount that might have been, it was not lost as far as I am concerned as the land and house were transferred to my half Thai daughter.  As far as how I see it, I look at it as an investment for her.

[JeffersLos]

20 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

But he is correct in a certain way now isn't he? Not nonsense really. 

That's true.

 

Any foreigner (or Thai, really), that declares land in Thailand cannot be lost is a bit delusional. 

[Gecko123]

43 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Sigh...I mention risk management and you assume I am referring to stop loss.

Most of the time when people talk about financial risk management they are talking about managing the risk that your actual return is less than your expected return.

[Walker88]

54 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Sigh...I mention risk management and you assume I am referring to stop loss.

No, not only stop loss. Risk management also means understanding where the weak points are. That is why I noted that because these are ISDA and private positions, no little retail trader is going to have a clue how much leverage there is in the market. The little guy is prisoner to the worst instincts of large traders.

 

I traded professionally for a living as a hedge fund manager. I know how opaque markets like this are. There are so many factors about which a retail investor has zero knowledge, and there are a good many factors about which even a major player has quite limited knowledge, that risk management is more an art form than a science. Even major firms have risk management algos that are forced to make assumptions about volatility and the size of possible fat tails.

 

We had position limits and VAR factors that I knew were bogus. I had to tweak things additionally so I could sleep soundly. Too many firms used the same algo, and it did not properly reflect the size of fat tails. Hence, 2008 happened.

 

I know 100% that none of the crypto fanboys here have the slightest idea how much of their position is at risk. If they can afford to lose all of it and not have it impact their lifestyle, then okay, but otherwise, they would be well advised to cut back to a size where there is no impact.  Maybe that is what you meant by your use of risk management. I use the term as we used it on the street.

Edited May 16, 2022 by Walker88

[Hummin]

26 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

But he is correct in a certain way now isn't he? Not nonsense really.  I lost my investment, the money I paid for the property purchased and house I built on it due to a divorce.  Instead of selling it to regain 50%, whatever amount that might have been, it was not lost as far as I am concerned as the land and house were transferred to my half Thai daughter.  As far as how I see it, I look at it as an investment for her.

In a divorce or in cases where you buy land in a thai name, you really do not loose anything, because it was never yours in the first place. 

[1FinickyOne]

On 5/12/2022 at 10:27 AM, Neeranam said:

Great time to buy when there is so much fear. 

 

I am buying. Actually bought Luna yesterday at 90c. 

Why don't you and I start our own crypto currency... we can sell it for $1000 a piece and call it "Itsy Bitsy Bit Coin"  and our catch phrase for advertising will be - - you won't believe its not bitcoin.. 

[lkn]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

I traded professionally for a living as a hedge fund manager. I know how opaque markets like this are. There are so many factors about which a retail investor has zero knowledge, and there are a good many factors about which even a major player has quite limited knowledge

Also remember that crypto exchanges are unregulated and have been caught doing wash trading, front running, trading against customers, having no backing for the funds on the exchange, etc.

 

It’s a casino where the house has been known to cheat. DYOR or risk management makes little sense in that context.

[Hummin]

1 hour ago, FritsSikkink said:

My wife's land for my kids, i have enough money for myself. My wife makes more money than i do. I am not thinking it, we have it for years already. Revenue is over 9 million per year.

What is your wife producing to make a revenue at 9 mill a year?